How Far will Stanford Drop & Does Baylor

[jdubct]

Duke has only played and beat one ranked team so far. I'm surprised they are ranked as high as they are considering who they have played so far. Stanford is 3-1 vs top 25, UConn 5-0, Baylor 3-1 and Notre Dame is also 3-1. Sorry Duke, 1-0 doesn't cut it for a #4 ranking right now.

I agree with you about Duke's strength of schedule, but last week's poll has Duke at #4. So, it is possible based on the tendency of the AP voters in the past to overreact to one game, that Duke could move up to #3 ahead of Stanford.

 

[HuskyNan]

I think Baylor may still get the 2 #1 votes. The voters already thought Baylor was superior to the rest of the teams in spite of the loss. Not sure a win over a team that they already held as inferior to Baylor will change their vote.

I think a good percentage of people, which should include the so called experts, understood that Sims absence in the Stanford game changed the whole completion of the match-up. I still think that if KMR knew for even a minute that she wouldn't have Sims that there would have been a game plan that would have more than made up for the 2 point loss. UConn should have moved to #1 after that game. Elevating Stanford to #1 was ridiculous.

Stanford will drop to #3, but that is still a higher rating then they deserve. As good as Chiney is make no mistake it was Nneka that separated Stanford from the pack. Chiney is not enough and good defensive teams can control the rest.

Stanford did beat #16 South Carolina on the road and #13 Tennessee at Thompson-Boling Arena by 13 points last week. It's not like they haven't played anyone.

 

[willtalk]

Duke has only played and beat one ranked team so far. I'm surprised they are ranked as high as they are considering who they have played so far. Stanford is 3-1 vs top 25, UConn 5-0, Baylor 3-1 and Notre Dame is also 3-1. Sorry Duke, 1-0 doesn't cut it for a #4 ranking right now.

Duke is not ranked #4 because of their schedule or because of who they beat. They started at #4 and have maintained that position because they have done nothing to dispel the voters initial ranking. They were voted #4 because of the perceived strength of their team in relation to all the other teams. Usually for teams to move upward they must beat one of the teams above them or one of those teams must have a significant loss. That might be a loss to a much lower ranking team or a blow out such as Stanford did to Uconn. But if that blowout is to the top team that might not be enough and needs to be put in context with other factors.

For Duke to advance to three the voters have to believe that Stanford's loss to Uconn was significant enough justify moving them over them. ND started lower than their position and moved up based on their wins in relation to their schedule and losses for the teams rated above them. For teams below Duke to pass them more is required either negatively from Duke or positively from those below them. Bottom line the results must change the existing perception of the teams strength the voters have. You are supposed to beat teams ranked lower and that will not advance you unless someone above you loses. To advance you need to beat them or someone ranked over them.

There was an article written about why the top four were ranked. They discussed the relative likely hood of which team would get the #1 rankings for the NCAA's. they felt that all four would end up with #1's, It was always my feeling that if one of the four would drop it would be Stanford. I thought so mainly because of their lack of depth and reliance on one player. I believe the recent game validated that. They had been playing winning basketball but they did that entirely on the back of super performances by Chiney. No player is immune to sub-par game's. It was inevitable that her hot streak would end. And if Stanford was playing a top team so would their winning streak end. Based on the result, it was obvious that Uconn is not the only team that would have beaten Stanford yesterday.

I still feel that Stanford will lose at least one game in league play. I have always felt that Duke was in fact a better team than Stanford precisely because of their depth and Stanford's lack thereof. Duke comes closer to Uconn in respect to depth than any other team and that's why I had and still have them at #3 from the beginning. I would, however not have a problem with Stanford being #3 based on their record in relation to their strength of schedule in comparison to Duke's. A weak schedule with no losses will not necessarily move you down in the polls. But it can become a hindrance to moving up.

 

[easttexastrash]

I think Baylor may still get the 2 #1 votes. The voters already thought Baylor was superior to the rest of the teams in spite of the loss. Not sure a win over a team that they already held as inferior to Baylor will change their vote.

I think a good percentage of people, which should include the so called experts, understood that Sims absence in the Stanford game changed the whole completion of the match-up. I still think that if KMR knew for even a minute that she wouldn't have Sims that there would have been a game plan that would have more than made up for the 2 point loss. UConn should have moved to #1 after that game. Elevating Stanford to #1 was ridiculous.

Stanford will drop to #3, but that is still a higher rating then they deserve. As good as Chiney is make no mistake it was Nneka that separated Stanford from the pack. Chiney is not enough and good defensive teams can control the rest.

I agree about Mulkey's game plan. I think the game was lost due to coaching and not talent. One thing she did that she didn't have to was put a freshman at the point. I think that had she moved Hayden to PG that Baylor would have run their offense much more smoothly. However, I think she saw it as an opportunity to get Johnson some valuable experience early in her career. But not having Sims and Prince healthy slimited her options.

I hope that Stanford drops to 2nd because I like Baylor's position at 3. But I suspect that Stanford drops to 4. Had the game been relatively close maybe they would drop to 2 but a beat-down cannot be overlooked.

 

[easttexastrash]

UCONN should be a unanimous number 1. That performance against Stanford sent a message that all voters should get. Baylor has not proven to deserve any number 1 votes but some voters will think that a team with Sims and Griner is the best team in the nation.

 

[pppggg]

anyone that votes Stanford as #2 wasn't watching the train wreck the Huskies laid on the Cardinals.

 

[pap49cba]

Sagarin now has Stanford #3 and ND #4 ahead of Duke.

LINK

 

[Wbbfan1]

Prior to yesterday's game against Stanford, UConn had a SOS of 22. Now they have a SOS of 5. Some of the teams listed in the Top 30 of Sagarin Ratings have atrocious SOS ratings. Kentucky 246, Okla State 327, Georgia 248 are some of the worse. Even Duke with a SOS rating of 107 is poor and they've only played one team ranked in the Top 25. WBB would help itself tremendously if all teams would improve their Out of Conference Schedule.

UConn has played 5 teams ranked in the Top 25 that's almost 50% of the games they've played so far. All teams should strive to play half of their OOC Games against Top 50 teams.

Sagarin now has Stanford #3 and ND #4 ahead of Duke.

LINK

 

[easttexastrash]

Unfortunately, there are only a few really good teams. SOS means very little in the women's game for the top 4 teams.

 

[speedoo]

I think Baylor may still get the 2 #1 votes. The voters already thought Baylor was superior to the rest of the teams in spite of the loss. Not sure a win over a team that they already held as inferior to Baylor will change their vote.

I think a good percentage of people, which should include the so called experts, understood that Sims absence in the Stanford game changed the whole completion of the match-up. I still think that if KMR knew for even a minute that she wouldn't have Sims that there would have been a game plan that would have more than made up for the 2 point loss. UConn should have moved to #1 after that game. Elevating Stanford to #1 was ridiculous.

Stanford will drop to #3, but that is still a higher rating then they deserve. As good as Chiney is make no mistake it was Nneka that separated Stanford from the pack. Chiney is not enough and good defensive teams can control the rest.

I agree 100%. Stanford will lose at least once more and they will need a favorable bracket (eg, no ND, Duke or MD) to make the Final Four.

 

[speedoo]

Stanford did beat #16 South Carolina on the road and #13 Tennessee at Thompson-Boling Arena by 13 points last week. It's not like they haven't played anyone.

They were lucky to beat USC and beating Tennessee is no great accomplishment.

 

[HuskyNan]

They were lucky to beat USC and beating Tennessee is no great accomplishment.

UConn looked unimpressive in their wins over PSU and Maryland - at home. Stanford was on the road, and right before the holidays when kids' minds wander.

 

[triaddukefan]

Prior to yesterday's game against Stanford, UConn had a SOS of 22. Now they have a SOS of 5. Some of the teams listed in the Top 30 of Sagarin Ratings have atrocious SOS ratings. Kentucky 246, Okla State 327, Georgia 248 are some of the worse. Even Duke with a SOS rating of 107 is poor and they've only played one team ranked in the Top 25. WBB would help itself tremendously if all teams would improve their Out of Conference Schedule.

UConn has played 5 teams ranked in the Top 25 that's almost 50% of the games they've played so far. All teams should strive to play half of their OOC Games against Top 50 teams.

This definitely has been the weakest OOC schedule that I can remember Duke playing.... to the chagrin of myself along with other duke fans. We usually have one of better schedules of the top teams. We might have had the toughest one or two OOC schedules as recently as 2010-11. Hopefully next year we will get back to that kind of schedule.

 

[EricLA]

Duke has only played and beat one ranked team so far. I'm surprised they are ranked as high as they are considering who they have played so far. Stanford is 3-1 vs top 25, UConn 5-0, Baylor 3-1 and Notre Dame is also 3-1. Sorry Duke, 1-0 doesn't cut it for a #4 ranking right now.

Just because Duke has only played one ranked team doesn't mean they don't deserve to be ranked #3 or 4. I could see you arguing whether or not they deserve to be ranked ahead of Stanford, but not the argument you made.

The ended the season last year at #6, lost only Selby and Sheer to graduation, and added Jones, Moore, and Heckmen (freshmen), and got back Henson (injury) and Wells (suspension). Both Alexis Jones and Amber Henson were top 10 kids in their respective classes, altho I don't see any stats on Henson so maybe she's injured again? Triad or Cam can tell me if I got any of the aforementioned facts wrong...

Frankly, I'd have put them preseason ahead of Stanford behind only UCONN and Baylor. On top of that, after Baylor's loss to Stanford, I'd have ranked them UCONN, Duke, Stanford, and Baylor in that order. Duke is loaded and deep. I don't disagree that the "jury" is still out on how good they will be this year, but I honestly think they are almost as much a lock for the final 4 as UCONN and Baylor...

BTW they did beat #10 Cal by a similar margin to UCONN's victories over PSU and Maryland. And say what you will, UCONN didn't look overly impressive vs. those 2 teams. The beat down vs. Stanford, however, was another story...

I'm not saying their schedule has been hard - it's actually a very easy schedule the entire year for them, but Cal was a good measuring stick... and the game vs. UCONN will tell everyone a lot...

 

[easttexastrash]

Just because Duke has only played one ranked team doesn't mean they don't deserve to be ranked #3 or 4. I could see you arguing whether or not they deserve to be ranked ahead of Stanford, but not the argument you made.

The ended the season last year at #6, lost only Selby and Sheer to graduation, and added Jones, Moore, and Heckmen (freshmen), and got back Henson (injury) and Wells (suspension). Both Alexis Jones and Amber Henson were top 10 kids in their respective classes, altho I don't see any stats on Henson so maybe she's injured again? Triad or Cam can tell me if I got any of the aforementioned facts wrong...

Frankly, I'd have put them preseason ahead of Stanford behind only UCONN and Baylor. On top of that, after Baylor's loss to Stanford, I'd have ranked them UCONN, Duke, Stanford, and Baylor in that order. Duke is loaded and deep. I don't disagree that the "jury" is still out on how good they will be this year, but I honestly think they are almost as much a lock for the final 4 as UCONN and Baylor...

BTW they did beat #10 Cal by a similar margin to UCONN's victories over PSU and Maryland. And say what you will, UCONN didn't look overly impressive vs. those 2 teams. The beat down vs. Stanford, however, was another story...

I'm not saying their schedule has been hard - it's actually a very easy schedule the entire year for them, but Cal was a good measuring stick... and the game vs. UCONN will tell everyone a lot...

Let me get this right. You rank three teams ahead of Baylor? And you're basing your pre-season rankings based on an in-season loss by Baylor? Plus, why are we discussing pre-season rankings 10 to 11 games into the season?

 

[Plumber Luigi]

Just because Duke has only played one ranked team doesn't mean they don't deserve to be ranked #3 or 4. I could see you arguing whether or not they deserve to be ranked ahead of Stanford, but not the argument you made.

Sorry for not making myself clearer but it was late/early.

Yes I understand that movements in the rankings are usually dictated only by the relative wins and losses that week. If you are beaten by a much lower or unranked team, you drop several positions. The other was around, reverse is true.

As someone who hadn't been following the rankings closely throughout the season it simply seemed to me that Duke has been sitting on it's laurels and has yet to prove that they deserve their high ranking in the polls with their out of conference schedule. This was the same argument that was made against UConn back in the 90s after the 95 season. That our X-0 record wasn't a result of our team's strength but because we played nobody of consequence before the conference schedule kicks in.

IMO Duke Women has always been over rated and so has the ACC in general. I may live in Connecticut but I'm from Missouri, show me that Duke deserve the #4 ranking and to me their current SOS hasn't allowed that to be shown to an impartial observer.

 

[easttexastrash]

Let me get this right. You rank three teams ahead of Baylor? And you're basing your revised pre-season rankings based on an in-season loss by Baylor? Plus, why are we discussing pre-season rankings 10 to 11 games into the season?

 

[Tonyc]

Just because Duke has only played one ranked team doesn't mean they don't deserve to be ranked #3 or 4. I could see you arguing whether or not they deserve to be ranked ahead of Stanford, but not the argument you made.

The ended the season last year at #6, lost only Selby and Sheer to graduation, and added Jones, Moore, and Heckmen (freshmen), and got back Henson (injury) and Wells (suspension). Both Alexis Jones and Amber Henson were top 10 kids in their respective classes, altho I don't see any stats on Henson so maybe she's injured again? Triad or Cam can tell me if I got any of the aforementioned facts wrong...

Frankly, I'd have put them preseason ahead of Stanford behind only UCONN and Baylor. On top of that, after Baylor's loss to Stanford, I'd have ranked them UCONN, Duke, Stanford, and Baylor in that order. Duke is loaded and deep. I don't disagree that the "jury" is still out on how good they will be this year, but I honestly think they are almost as much a lock for the final 4 as UCONN and Baylor...

BTW they did beat #10 Cal by a similar margin to UCONN's victories over PSU and Maryland. And say what you will, UCONN didn't look overly impressive vs. those 2 teams. The beat down vs. Stanford, however, was another story...

I'm not saying their schedule has been hard - it's actually a very easy schedule the entire year for them, but Cal was a good measuring stick... and the game vs. UCONN will tell everyone a lot...

Keep in mind in the MD and Penn St games Bria and KML werent 100% . Everybody keeps forgetting that. I would like to see UConn play both of them again in February and see what happens. I keep reading the media talking about Baylor without Sims and other teams without their top player well UConn has had more top players out or coming back and theyre still putting up big numbers and winning. I remember when UConn beat Stanford by 36 and lost later in the NCAAs and nobody was saying Mel and Kalana were out with injuries.

 

[speedoo]

UConn looked unimpressive in their wins over PSU and Maryland - at home. Stanford was on the road, and right before the holidays when kids' minds wander.

I thought this discussion was about Stanford.. How are the UConn games vs. MD and PSU relevant?

 

[HuskyNan]

Keep in mind in the MD and Penn St games Bria and KML werent 100% . Everybody keeps forgetting that. I would like to see UConn play both of them again in February and see what happens. I keep reading the media talking about Baylor without Sims and other teams without their top player well UConn has had more top players out or coming back and theyre still putting up big numbers and winning. I remember when UConn beat Stanford by 36 and lost later in the NCAAs and nobody was saying Mel and Kalana were out with injuries.

Tony, UConn beat Purdue by 30+ points with Bria playing limited minutes. Breanna, only a freshman, was dominant againt Purdue but struggled againt the physicality of PSU and Maryland. She will learn. But to say the two games were close because Bria was hobbled isn't correct.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Duke holding Monmouth to 3 points in the first half today actually probably puts even spotlight on their poor SOS as it was bad to begin with and playing a hapless team like Monmouth at home will set it even further back in the twilight zone. Who knows how Duke would look now if it had given itself at least decent tests that most of the other top 10 teams have had (as even the CA game was at home)? On the plus side for the Devils, it's not like they intentionally tried to play an easy OOC schedule this year, as a few of their opponents like Xavier and St. Johns are just having much worse years than normal. Going into the season I thought that Duke's SOS could be halfway decent, but it's not turning out that way.

Either way, Stanford has 3 more top-50 wins than Duke and three times as many of those games.

 

[triaddukefan]

Duke holding Monmouth to 3 points in the first half today actually probably puts even spotlight on their poor SOS as it was bad to begin with and playing a hapless team like Monmouth at home will set it even further back in the twilight zone. Who knows how Duke would look now if it had given itself at least decent tests that most of the other top 10 teams have had (as even the CA game was at home)? On the plus side for the Devils, it's not like they intentionally tried to play an easy OOC schedule this year, as a few of their opponents like Xavier and St. Johns are just having much worse years than normal. Going into the season I thought that Duke's SOS could be halfway decent, but it's not turning out that way.

Either way, Stanford has 3 more top-50 wins than Duke and three times as many of those games.

Yet I still think Duke is a better team than Stanford...... top 50 wins or not. Duke will probably have more top 50 wins at the end of the season than Stanford.... or at least it will be close.

 

[triaddukefan]

Just because Duke has only played one ranked team doesn't mean they don't deserve to be ranked #3 or 4. I could see you arguing whether or not they deserve to be ranked ahead of Stanford, but not the argument you made.

The ended the season last year at #6, lost only Selby and Sheer to graduation, and added Jones, Moore, and Heckmen (freshmen), and got back Henson (injury) and Wells (suspension). Both Alexis Jones and Amber Henson were top 10 kids in their respective classes, altho I don't see any stats on Henson so maybe she's injured again? Triad or Cam can tell me if I got any of the aforementioned facts wrong...


t...

Henson is still on the mend.... hopefully she will get back on the court in January, but its anyone's guess at this point.

 

[EricLA]

Let me get this right. You rank three teams ahead of Baylor? And you're basing your pre-season rankings based on an in-season loss by Baylor? Plus, why are we discussing pre-season rankings 10 to 11 games into the season?

My rankings right now would be UCONN, Duke, Baylor, Stanford. After Baylor's loss to Stanford, i would have had UCONN, Duke, Stanford, Baylor.

I am not basing my current rankings based on preseason. My point was that Duke lost very little due to graduation last year, and they've done nothing this year to merit dropping them below Baylor or Stanford. IMHO, those last 2 teams lost so they should have dropped below Duke. Obviously that didn't happen.

 

[triaddukefan]

My rankings right now would be UCONN, Duke, Baylor, Stanford. After Baylor's loss to Stanford, i would have had UCONN, Duke, Stanford, Baylor.

I am not basing my current rankings based on preseason.

I would have UCONN, BAYLOR, Stanford, and then Duke.