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Well I appreciate the analysis but I disagree with a lot of it. Namely I think you are underestimating matchup style of play factor, which is admittedly hard to do without having seen teams play but since its the off season, it won't stop me! Last season's final four run is a great example of match ups favoring UConn and leading to a surprise run to the final four. I don't think we were a top 10 team last season but we avoided teams that could exploit our biggest weakness which was dribble penetration from the backcourt, namely the PG position, to create for others and we made the final four because of it. USC is a team that was probably better than us all year, but we happened to match up well against them because of their lack of PG, and therefore we won. South Carolina in 2023 is another good example of a team we matched up very well against, even without our best players, despite not being as good as them because our strengths played into their weakness. It was the opposite once 2024 came around, despite our team possible being better than our 2023 team.I agree with @RSHERMVIKES. You underestimate Geno and Paige & Co. Peculiar after this past season in which they surprised everyone. You're right to think the chances are in SC's favor, and I also think they are the preseason favorite. It also looks like UCLA and USCw will be ranked by many as #2 and #3. I don't share this latter sentiment and think UConn and ND are the chief contenders for SC.
As for the unknowns, on UConn's side there are many.
- Mainly will the injured recover in time (Aubrey, Caroline, Azzi, Jana, Ayanna)
- and will the Freshmen be able to contribute (Sarah, Morgan, Allie)?
- And a lot rides on Jana not only returning healthy but also finding her ability to play at the D1 level.
As for the rest, they are now known quantities.
Do we think none of Aubrey, Ayanna and Caroline will return? That seems unlikely. If only one of them returns, that is a huge boost to our front court. And if both Aubrey and Ayanna can return to form/have a sophomore leap, it will give Jana and Ice much needed relief.
- We know what Ash and KK can do, and Ice and Q are also known quantities. It's not unreasonable to expect a sophomore leap out of some of them, if not all of them.
- And there a few other knowns, namely Paige and Kaitlyn, and Azzi if she can come back at all. Yes, this is not a sure thing.
- Paige Azzi Kaitlyn Ash and KK is already one of the best backcourts in D1, if not the best, even if none of the freshmen can contribute at all. I think the odds that Azzi will find her form are encouraging, especially if she doesn't have to play 35+ minutes/game.
Now let's compare this to the knowns and unknowns at SC, just to take one example.
- The knowns are formidable in the frontline (Watkins, Feagin, Kitts and Dauda) That's some serious depth, though they aren't huge. Other than Dauda at 6'4", it is an athletic but not very tall group.
- The unknowns are promising and this is where the size resides. But they are mainly untested (Walker, Tac and Edwards).
- Will Tac be able to contribute major minutes this season?
- Will Walker recover her form?
- Will Edwards find a way to contribute at the D1 level? Some or all of these questions may get answered in the positive.
- In the backcourt, the knowns are also impressive (Raven, Tessa, Te-Hina, Milaysia and Bree). This strikes me as the main strength of SC this year, even more than the front court, which is a departure from the profile of recent teams.
Dawn's backcourt is all healthy, which is a real advantage over UConn. But if Azzi comes back healthy, I'd give the edge to UConn over this backcourt. SC looks like the second best backcourt in D1 to me. As for matchups, I like KK or Kaitlyn on Raven or Milaysia, Azzi or Ash on Te-hina or Bree, and Paige on Tessa. And this assumes Geno gets nothing from Morgan and Allie who would pose serious matchup problems for SC. The front court edge has to go to SC, but this is not their main strength, as I said above, and it's also where the unknowns are. Watkins and Dauda have some good size and I don't care for the matchup of the taller but untested Jana against two seasoned players. She's strong enough to outmuscle both Watkins and Dauda, which not many bigs can say. But they are simply more experienced. Will Ice be able to overcome this advantage? Maybe, though it means playing two bigs and that hasn't been Geno's best lineup in recent years. Kitts is a good player, but a healthy Caroline or Aubrey would pose a serious problem for her on defense. Will they be healthy enough by then? Two years ago, UConn with no Paige or Azzi or Ice or Caroline almost upset SC. Both squads are a little different now, and it's hard to predict how such a game would go this time around. But that game gives me hope. I'd say SC has to be favored to win this one. But I think there's a chance Paige & Co could pull another upset here.
We could do a similar comparison with UCLA. Here the question mark for the Bruins is their backcourt. Can Rice and Jones make up for the loss of Osborne? I don't think they can really compare to the backcourt UConn can put out there. Their advantage is almost entirely in the front court and it is significant. Geno's game plan would have to be to out-quick them and maybe force them to sit Betts to get more team speed. Can this succeed? I think Paige & Co have at least an even chance to prevail.
And for USCw, we've already seen what Paige can do against Juju. Add in Azzi and Kaitlyn and it becomes even more an advantage for UConn. USCw adds Kiki Iriafen. Is that enough? She is formidable and probably gives them a front court advantage, but is it enough to overcome the backcourt advantage UConn will almost certainly have?
I'm pretty confident we could go down the entire list from the OP and find that UConn has a good chance to win against most of them. SC and ND look like the only long shots to me.
Looking forward to next year, assuming top teams strengths and weakness, I think of the top 8:
UConn will match up well against: Notre Dame, UCLA, and Texas, and poorly against: South Carolina, USC, and NC State
Notre Dame will match up well against: South Carolina, Texas, USC and Poorly Against: NC State, Uconn, and UCLA
South Carolina will match up well against everybody. The only teams they might struggle with are: Notre Dame and UCLA
I'm too lazy to do the rest but really trying to show the point that a team could be the second best team in the country next year and the 5th best team in the country could have a better chance of beating the number 1 team (south carolina) than them.