Information from Michael Osterholm, public health scientist and Infectious disease expert. Here are some highlights of his podcast and projections/info about it. This helps explain why we’re seeing shutdowns. It’s long but valuable info....
Just the beginning of virus, it will be 10-15 times worse than flu.
Based on the data so far estimate there will be 48million hospitalisations, 96million cases (still trying to figure out if that’s worldwide or in America) over 480,000 deaths in America
Will last atleast 3-6months.
Smoking, obesity and high blood pressure increase risk.
Number of cases seem to double every four days.
In the first hours of contracting there are incredibly high levels of the virus making you infectious before any symptoms show.
Kids are not getting sick from it. In China only 2% under the age of 18.
30% of nurses in America have kids(Whose going to look after them if they close schools), One quarter of Americans don’t have sick leave.
690,000 Americans have end stage renal disease get their drugs from China. Most of the drugs come from China.
No evidence this is a bioweapon.
No evidence Virus is seasonal.
Influenza transmission is like “trying to stop the wind”, isolation won’t stop it, only a vaccine.
No data anything can fight the virus besides factors that improve your immune system (exercise,good sleep, not missing medication)
Hand sanitizer is good for stopping a lot of infectious diseases but weak evidence that this virus will be transmitted that way(through hands,face) but should still use it. People want to feel like they’re doing something by washing their hands, the data says it is transmitted by breathing.
Surgical mask not effective at all from stopping virus from getting in. They were made for stopping bugs going out. N95 respirator mask are very effective.
Over 4,000 health workers in China infected. We have to protect our health workers, they are on the front line who cannot be replaced.
There might have been a vaccine for coronavirus if after SARS and MERS in 2003 everyone continued to find a vaccine but after it went away nobody had interest.
He did a Briefing with over 400 major financial investors around the world they reminded him of a scared child, he’s worried for the market, no plans in place again for this virus.
Have to prioritise a vaccine.
He predicted in his book that a virus would come out of China because of the large population and food supply that is largely wild life that comes into the markets, close contact with the animals, bugs on animals. China has been a “bacterial and viral soup vessel for a long time”
A vaccine will most likely take years, there was an antibody dependent enhancement component to SARS (A little bit of the antibody actually made you more sick)
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