OT: What changes are you and family making to your lifestyle due to coranavirus?

[boba]

Not even your underwear?

especially not my underwear, it's magic!

 

[superjohn]

WHO declared it a global pandemic.

 

[storrsroars]

especially not my underwear, it's magic!

Out of concern for Kathy and Sally, I won't post my thoughts on aging and the correllation of lower hanging fruit and ball sweat.

 

[NJHusky]

But again, there was never a place or time where H1N1 was killing 6% of its cases. That figure you mentioned puts it at 0.02%, consistent with flu fatalities because it was a strain of the flu. This virus is NOT the flu.

Edit- I get the overall impact argument. But I think people are failing to consider what exponential community spread growth for another 9 months in the USA would look like for deaths, since those stats are for a full year of H1N1.

"Under exponential growth 500 cases grow to more than 1 million cases after 11 doubling times." So without taking more precautions, we're looking at 10 more doubling times to get to 1 million. Doubling time currently outside of China is 5 days. So we're looking at a million cases in the USA in 2 months without extra precautions taken. Even at the most conservative death rate, that would equal the H1N1's deaths in 4 months instead of 12. And if we get hit like Italy, we'd be at the H1N1 deaths in 6 more weeks.

Look at the numbers in Korea. 66 deaths/7755 reported cases. that's a .8% mortality rate....

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

especially not my underwear, it's magic!

You and Mitt.

45 years ago, the National Lampoon Radio Hour queried, "Did you know that if you turn your underwear inside out, you can wear it 6 more days?"

 

[HuskyHawk]

But again, there was never a place or time where H1N1 was killing 6% of its cases. That figure you mentioned puts it at 0.02%, consistent with flu fatalities because it was a strain of the flu. This virus is NOT the flu.

Edit- I get the overall impact argument. But I think people are failing to consider what exponential community spread growth for another 9 months in the USA would look like for deaths, since those stats are for a full year of H1N1.

"Under exponential growth 500 cases grow to more than 1 million cases after 11 doubling times." So without taking more precautions, we're looking at 10 more doubling times to get to 1 million. Doubling time currently outside of China is 5 days. So we're looking at a million cases in the USA in 2 months without extra precautions taken. Even at the most conservative death rate, that would equal the H1N1's deaths in 4 months instead of 12. And if we get hit like Italy, we'd be at the H1N1 deaths in 6 more weeks.

I understand. Not sure where the 6% comes from. The estimated rate is difficult due to most cases not being diagnosed at all, but this article in the UK puts it at around 1%. That's still much higher than .02%, hence the extreme response. If it was truly 6% it couldn't spread this way as it would kill the host too often.

What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?
It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.

 

[CL82]

Just stay away from the bat meat and you'll be fine.

You see them hanging upside down in the window next to the ducks, with no chance that they're sleeping and you could stir them up, and something comes over you...

You have ducks in your window?

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

'Isn't there some kind of Koolaid we could just drink to make this concern go away?'
yes. it's called 'time.' and thank you for mentioning 'underwear' in a previous post, cuz my initial response to the thread was going to be something like 'well, I guess im upping my underwear changing frequency to weekly instead of monthly,' but considering that many are living in sort of a y2k thing, I reconsidered, because it might cause further outrage. we're kind of an optimistic, one day at a time clan, with a bent to laugh as much as possible. it's good for ur health.

In the alternative, "Commando!"

 

[storrsroars]

You have ducks in your window?

Maybe his wife has an endless fascination with cheap decoration...

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

You have ducks in your window?

I think this started with a non-Jake Gittes Chinatown reference...

 

[CL82]

World Health Organization declares Covid-19 a pandemic.

By the way this may be my last post. A co-worker just came in saying that she had a fever last night with a dry couch but is "all better now." I am making a Purell moat between our offices as we speak.

Italian doctor urged people not to describe Covid-19 as a bad case of the flu.

“Cases are multiplying, we arrive at a rate of 15-20 admissions per day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the E.R. is collapsing.” “And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.

Describing every available ventilator as “gold,” Macchini said the doctors and nurses working at his side are exhausted. “I saw the tiredness on faces that didn’t know what it was despite the already exhausting workloads they had. I saw a solidarity of all of us who never failed to go to our internist colleagues to ask, ‘What can I do for you now?’ “Doctors who move beds and transfer patients, who administer therapies instead of nurses. Nurses with tears in their eyes because we can’t save everyone, and the vital parameters of several patients at the same time reveal an already marked destiny. “There are no more shifts, no more hours. Social life is suspended for us. We no longer see our families for fear of infecting them. Some of us have already become infected despite the protocols,” he said. Macchini noted that some of his colleagues have become infected themselves and then infected their relatives who “are already struggling between life and death.”

“Now, explain to me which flu virus causes such a rapid drama. … And while there are still people who boast of not being afraid by ignoring directions, protesting because their normal routine is ‘temporarily’ put in crisis, the epidemiological disaster is taking place. So be patient, you can’t go to the theater, museums or the gym. Try to have pity on the myriad of old people you could exterminate,” he said.

 

[UCfor3]

Angela Merkel just said that 70% of the German population will likely get the coronavirus. Her quote is that they are just trying to slow it down. She said the object right now is "winning time." Pretty ominous.

 

[ClifSpliffy]

In the alternative, "Commando!"

actually bud, that's how I mostly roll, exceptin when I have to play dress up, and manegurl starts barking at me aboot something called 'decorum.' as if. I usually have to remind her that she's a girl, and knows absolutely nada aboot the ride when ur fancypants are lined to the knee with silk. and never will. this factoid is the source of my 'weekly to monthly' point.

 

[Deepster]

Two interesting points just heard on ESPN:

SF just banned gatherings of 1,000 people or more. That includes the Warriors games.

1) Do you think the NBA is prepared to play their playoffs in empty arenas? The commentator said their budgeting for next year assumes "hundreds of millions" in revenue from this year's postseason. Are they prepared to lose that level of money? Or cancel/postpone the playoffs?

2) What happens if/when the first pro athlete tests positive for it? Say someone in the NBA tested positive tomorrow? Do they immediately place the NBA on pause?

 

[HuskyHawk]

World Health Organization declares Covid-19 a pandemic.

By the way this may be my last post. A co-worker just came in saying that she had a fever last night with a dry couch but is "all better now." I am making a Purell moot between our offices as we speak.

That's the worst thing about this. I flew to Texas last week and found out that a person in the building I went to tested positive. One of well over a thousand.

Now here I am with what is normally seasonal allergy sinus issues, since it's so warm and the pollen count is up (plus I always get dried out after flying). But....it makes you wonder. Do I have it? Should I self isolate?

I'm concerned that somebody will sneeze in a public place and cause a panic with people getting trampled. The milder version of this is indistinguishable from ordinary cold and allergy related issues.

 

[UconnFanNVa]

I get your attempt at a hot take, but is wiping down the rail of a grocery cart "living in fear"? If you're that tough, why don't you go and lick the cart handle? Or lick the rail of an escalator? I mean, if you get it, you get it. Oh well, right?

LOL i made that exact same joke today. Obviously I wont be licking those things because i dont normally, but my take is i'm not doing anything out of the ordinary to prevent this. I wash my hands often and i use hand sanitizer when I feel its necessary (not too often). I'm not doing anything else, unless I feel that the threat of getting this virus poses a much higher risk than i currently perceive it to pose.

 

[Kitaman]

Just got a business solicitation email. A company is advertising that they will decontaminate your company office, clearing any COVID-19 residue.

Called themselves experts, and EPA certified.

Just saying here come the hustlers!

 

[ctchamps]

My wife bought me a one way ticket to Lombardy Italy.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.

So far the most effective way of dealing with Coronid 19 has been to isolate outbreaks. That effectiveness breaks down if people don't develop immunity. That seems a low probability. Precautions such as masks and hand washing will be effective if viruses aren't floating in the air you pass through. In other words if your community has an outbreak the odds of you getting it are high. Masks reduce the risk of you passing to others but not the other way around.

Older people are at risk because as we age the immune system like the rest of our bodies does not work as well (hence it's compromised). I've been searching to determine if children on immunosuppressants are at risk. I would think they are. I would appreciate it if someone who has data on this demographic could let me know. Did not know that reasonably healthy forty and fifty year olds have needed hospitalization. If true that is a game changer. Not many countries can build the necessary bed capacity in as short a time that China was able to do. Imagine needing to go to an overrun hospital if you/re and accident victim.

The economic impact will be severe no matter which way we deal with this. Given the severity it's a tough call whether we should be proactive. I hate to be the one making that decision.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

actually bud, that's how I mostly roll, exceptin when I have to play dress up, and manegurl starts barking at me aboot something called 'decorum.' as if. I usually have to remind her that she's a girl, and knows absolutely nada aboot the ride when ur fancypants are lined to the knee with silk. and never will. this factoid is the source of my 'weekly to monthly' point.

with respect for the lower case, tmi

 

[Fatroony5]

Angela Merkel just said that 70% of the German population will likely get the coronavirus. Her quote is that they are just trying to slow it down. She said the object right now is "winning time." Pretty ominous.

Dr. Osterholm is projecting 98 million cases in America and 48 million hospitalizations. Went back and watched the podcast from JRE yesterday. I posted some main points from the podcast. Maybe those projections are way off, he acknowledges they don’t really know. But what’s most ominous is him saying “this is a corona virus winter and we’re in the first week.” Projecting this to last 3-6 months... he’s projection is basically 27% of people to get it. Let’s say even 10% get the virus, and of those cases, 50% are hospitalized, that’s still like 18 million hospitalizations in that time span. With a hospital bed rate of roughly 3/1000 per capita, you can seee why these scientists are trying to get your attention. Their fears of running out of hospital beds seems like a valid concern. As they say, if you can slow down the rate so everyone isn’t sick at once, it would help to ensure everyone can get the care they need. Hopefully these precautions are all for nothing and it doesn’t become a major problem here but I get why they’re taking these measures. No clue what’ll happen if/when a pro athlete gets it.

 

[ClifSpliffy]

My wife bought me a one way ticket to Lombardy Italy.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.

So far the most effective way of dealing with Coronid 19 has been to isolate outbreaks. That effectiveness breaks down if people don't develop immunity. That seems a low probability. Precautions such as masks and hand washing will be effective if viruses aren't floating in the air you pass through. In other words if your community has an outbreak the odds of you getting it are high. Masks reduce the risk of you passing to others but not the other way around.

Older people are at risk because as we age the immune system like the rest of our bodies does not work as well (hence it's compromised). I've been searching to determine if children on immunosuppressants are at risk. I would think they are. I would appreciate it if someone who has data on this demographic could let me know. Did not know that reasonably healthy forty and fifty year olds have needed hospitalization. If true that is a game changer. Not many countries can build the necessary bed capacity in as short a time that China was able to do. Imagine needing to go to an overrun hospital if you/re and accident victim.

The economic impact will be severe no matter which way we deal with this. Given the severity it's a tough call whether we should be proactive. I hate to be the one making that decision.

since you asked. China shuts all 16 temporary coronavirus hospitals in Wuhan
and their sketchy data shows that 80+, and having some other 'ur seriously broken' issues, is the overwhelming death target group. that's the fact, jack.

 

[Chin Diesel]

That's the worst thing about this. I flew to Texas last week and found out that a person in the building I went to tested positive. One of well over a thousand.

Now here I am with what is normally seasonal allergy sinus issues, since it's so warm and the pollen count is up (plus I always get dried out after flying). But....it makes you wonder. Do I have it? Should I self isolate?

I'm concerned that somebody will sneeze in a public place and cause a panic with people getting trampled. The milder version of this is indistinguishable from ordinary cold and allergy related issues.

Not trampled but a United flight the other day had a passenger uprising when someone sneezed on the plane.

United flight diverted after passengers became disruptive because someone was sneezing

DENVER – A commercial flight from Colorado ski country to Newark, New Jersey, made an unscheduled stop in Denver after several passengers

www.dispatch.com

 

[auror]

Look at the numbers in Korea. 66 deaths/7755 reported cases. that's a .8% mortality rate....

Fatality rates for this disease will be based on a lot of things:

Preparedness.
Demographics.
Cultural habits
Governmental response time.
Testing rate.
Hospital quality
Hospital quantity.
Genetic makeup
Smoker population.
Other at risk populations (diabetes, high blood pressure, etc.)

It's very difficult to get a true case fatality rate "in a vacuum". And that rate doesn't really matter. What matters is the practical rate for an average country at a given response level.

So why has South Korea's been lower?

• The Korean outbreak began in a religious cult made up predominantly of younger people and especially young women. This is a less susceptible demographic. It was identified fairly quickly due to direct link to Wuhan travel. They were able to mostly isolate the outbreak to this certain area.
  • Korea currently has 35% of cases under 30 years, in the Chinese data it's 10% under 30 years. Is this because they tested young people more readily in Korea or because the outbreak was spread more among a younger population in Korea?
• South Korea had recently gone through the MERS outbreak, and had systems still in place to test quickly and accurately. They were ramping up production of test kits in mid January.
  • The rapid and frequent testing both captures more cases (statistically bringing down the rate and getting to a truer rate) while also allowing a quicker medical response for those who test positive, saving more lives relative to places who are less proactive (also bringing down the rate, but in a way that is less predictive for other countries).
• Greater mask use by general population. Prevents people from touching their own face even if it doesn't keep 100% of the droplets from spreading.
• The South Korean government has taken a "we're at war approach".
  • Further, Steven Krajewski has an election in April. Do you trust these numbers?

So given that the United States response has been nowhere close to that of Korea's and we have a load of people with high blood pressure, etc., I do not think we'd get that low a rate, at least not until we seriously increased our active prevention activities.

For the record, i used 1% in the hypothetical you're quoting, which is not far off from the 0.8%.

 

[August_West]

WHO declared it a global pandemic.

 

[UCfor3]

Anthony Fauci just said that they think this is 10 times more deadly than the flu. He also said we are NOT presently doing enough to prevent the spread. He said it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. The Warriors just announced they will be playing their next game without a crowd. The time for being skeptical is pretty much over.