OT: What changes are you and family making to your lifestyle due to coranavirus?

[NJHusky]

Fatality rates for this disease will be based on a lot of things:

Preparedness.
Demographics.
Cultural habits
Governmental response time.
Testing rate.
Hospital quality
Hospital quantity.
Genetic makeup
Smoker population.
Other at risk populations (diabetes, high blood pressure, etc.)

It's very difficult to get a true case fatality rate "in a vacuum". And that rate doesn't really matter. What matters is the practical rate for an average country at a given response level.

So why has South Korea's been lower?

• The Korean outbreak began in a religious cult made up predominantly of younger people and especially young women. This is a less susceptible demographic. It was identified fairly quickly due to direct link to Wuhan travel. They were able to mostly isolate the outbreak to this certain area.
  • Korea currently has 35% of cases under 30 years, in the Chinese data it's 10% under 30 years. Is this because they tested young people more readily in Korea or because the outbreak was spread more among a younger population in Korea?
• South Korea had recently gone through the MERS outbreak, and had systems still in place to test quickly and accurately. They were ramping up production of test kits in mid January.
  • The rapid and frequent testing both captures more cases (statistically bringing down the rate and getting to a truer rate) while also allowing a quicker medical response for those who test positive, saving more lives relative to places who are less proactive (also bringing down the rate, but in a way that is less predictive for other countries)..
• Greater mask use by general population. Prevents people from touching their own face even if it doesn't keep 100% of the droplets from spreading.
• The South Korean government has taken a "we're at war approach".
  • Further, Steven Krajewski has an election in April. Do you trust these numbers?

So given that the United States response has been nowhere close to that of Korea's and we have a # 2 load of people with high blood pressure, etc., I do not think we'd get that low a rate, at least not until we seriously increased our active prevention activities.

For the record, i used 1% in the hypothetical you're quoting, which is not far off from the 0.8%.

Thanks for the info. You obviously have a more in depth knowledge than I do. Assuming you r in the medical/research field. Just to be a bit of a jerk how do you explain the low .05% numbers for Germany and countries like Norway and Denmark with over 500 cases and zero fatalities?

 

[auror]

Just to be a bit of a jerk how do you explain the low .05% numbers for Germany and countries like Norway and Denmark with over 500 cases and zero fatalities?

No idea lol. Germans (at least my relatives) are great at casual social distancing, though.

How is Germany controlling the coronavirus outbreak?

As both the number of coronavirus cases and deaths rise around the world, one country has so far remained an outlier in terms of fatalities: Germany.

www.foxnews.com

Might be as simple as caring really well for their elderly or that the majority of their patients haven't died yet.

 

[chalk1]

Bought a ticket to go to Florida on the 23rd. I am 68 and in very good health. Going to buy a couple of good cigars and anybody who gets within 6' I am going to blow smoke on. Enjoy life it is to short as it is. I am also going golfing several days. Flying back on April 1.

 

[Marat]

Just informed that I need to work from home (remotely) for next 2 weeks - no commuting into Manhattan. On the plus side , can now watch the Huskies from home Thu/Fri and NCAA tournament.

 

[Ajs120102]

Hearing UConn will be closing for 6-8 weeks

 

[pj]

Look at the numbers in Korea. 66 deaths/7755 reported cases. that's a .8% mortality rate....

Some of those cases have been infected only a few weeks, none more than a few months. The mortality rate will go up as cases are tracked longer.

Still, Korea is doing a lot better than Italy where the morality rate is 6% after only a few weeks, headed above 10%.

Whatever Korea is doing we should be copying.

 

[Chasm64]

Nothing other than washing my hands more. I’ve had a cold before.

 

[NJHusky]

Some of those cases have been infected only a few weeks, none more than a few months. The mortality rate will go up as cases are tracked longer.

Still, Korea is doing a lot better than Italy where the morality rate is 6% after only a few weeks, headed above 10%.

Whatever Korea is doing we should be copying.

don't you think it will go down....as more people are tested? Seems like only a small % of people are tested

Given Italy’s older population, “you would expect their mortality rate to be higher on average, all else being held equal,”

 

[pj]

don't you think it will go down....as more people are tested? Seems like only a small % of people are tested

Given Italy’s older population, “you would expect their mortality rate to be higher on average, all else being held equal,”

It may ... but if that's the case, it means a lot more people are infected than we realized, which means it spread faster than we realized (since it only entered Italy a month ago), which means it spreads so easily it won't be easy to stop everyone from being infected sooner or later.

Either way, it's bad news. What do you prefer, guaranteed infection of everyone with 1% mortality, or 10+% mortality with a chance to limit spread to a few percent of the population?

 

[NJHusky]

It may ... but if that's the case, it means a lot more people are infected than we realized, which means it spread faster than we realized (since it only entered Italy a month ago), which means it spreads so easily it won't be easy to stop everyone from being infected sooner or later.

Either way, it's bad news. What do you prefer, guaranteed infection of everyone with 1% mortality, or 10+% mortality with a chance to limit spread to a few percent of the population?

Why are they mutually exclusive? Limiting spread with <1% mortality rate seems logical to me.. ...but the media is making is seem like getting it is fatal...that's far from the case. The wife and kids of the lawyer in NYC said they feel fine and barely had a cough...so this is NOT the plague or Ebola. If I was so concerned about getting it...I wouldn't go out...but I do go out

I'm still waiting for someone to explain why this Corona is soooooooooo much worse than other corona virus' We all forgot about the Swine Flu in 2009 that killed over 500K people globally...and didn't cause a stir.

 

[UconnU]

None besides maybe washing our hands more often.

 

[pj]

Why are they mutually exclusive? Limiting spread with <1% mortality rate seems logical to me.. ...but the media is making is seem like getting it is fatal...that's far from the case. The wife and kids of the lawyer in NYC said they feel fine and barely had a cough...so this is NOT the plague or Ebola. If I was so concerned about getting it...I wouldn't go out...but I do go out

We should absolutely limit spread -- we should do everything we can. The point I was making was about the uncertainties in what we know about the virus. We don't know precisely how it's bad -- whether it's bad due to extremely high infectiousness, or moderately high infectiousness plus deadliness -- but we know it's bad.

 

[Leebo]

Thanks for the info. You obviously have a more in depth knowledge than I do. Assuming you r in the medical/research field. Just to be a bit of a jerk how do you explain the low .05% numbers for Germany and countries like Norway and Denmark with over 500 cases and zero fatalities?

You need to look at closed cases (recovered and deceased). Any of the others could still become deaths.

Edit: Norway has 0 deaths and 1 recovery... So basically no data to work with yet.

 

[pj]

Thanks for the info. You obviously have a more in depth knowledge than I do. Assuming you r in the medical/research field. Just to be a bit of a jerk how do you explain the low .05% numbers for Germany and countries like Norway and Denmark with over 500 cases and zero fatalities?

No one knows how to explain why there have been few deaths in a number of countries, and lots of deaths in others. The course of the disease could be slower in certain populations, and infections could have started later.

It will take some time, plus systematic testing, to investigate these puzzles and turn the low-quality data we have right now into solid data.

We'll know a lot more in two months. As Leebo says, until people have recovered, you don't know what the outcome will be. Even if they recover, they could relapse later. Only time will tell.

 

[NJHusky]

You need to look at closed cases (recovered and deceased). Any of the others could still become deaths.

Edit: Norway has 0 deaths and 1 recovery... So basically no data to work with yet.

How do you determine a case is closed? Negative test after positive test. But how do you account for the people who don't have symptoms and are positive?? If the lawyer in NYC didn't get so sick...his family would have never been tested and factored into the numbers...don;t you think there are thousands of people like that out there?

 

[boba]

Older people are at risk because as we age the immune system like the rest of our bodies does not work as well (hence it's compromised).

Another possibility is hypertension is more prevalent in that cohort; hence, higher mortality due to respiratory / renal failure. not sure if this is behind paywall:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191

First if you are relying on THIS PLACE (and it's not the good place!) for advice (health, legal, marital, pizza) you came to the wrong place because it's infested with hobo's and transients that Fishy monitors as throat punching targets.

next the important thing is to follow directions from the ones who do know. And they want us to wash hands, socially isolate, and be aware of surroundings and ourselves. Stay home if ill (or better yet, go visit your congressional representatives!)

What will happen, will happen - we can't prevent it from happening but we can change the direction and magnitude (The flatten the curve thing.)

Oh and Italy is an exceptionally poor model for predicting what will happen here. demographics are not easily compared due to age, social habits, etc..

 

[pj]

How do you determine a case is closed? Negative test after positive test. But how do you account for the people who don't have symptoms and are positive?? If the lawyer in NYC didn't get so sick...his family would have never been tested and factored into the numbers...don;t you think there are thousands of people like that out there?

Recovery generally means they were sick and got better, it's not related to whether they test positive or negative after symptoms abate. Researchers are just beginning to learn about asymptomatic positives and whether recovery means elimination of virus.

 

[boba]

Recovery generally means they were sick and got better, it's not related to whether they test positive or negative after symptoms abate. Researchers are just beginning to learn about asymptomatic positives and whether recovery means elimination of virus.

I am wary of the "asymptomatic" because what are the chances a novel virus introduced to a naive environment is going to wait 5-10 days before viral load induces illness? I'd guess that the incubation is far quicker and contagiousness is not far ahead of that. The morbidity rate must depend on underlying factors, and for me, hypertension (a common malady with few symptoms) fits the hypothesis. When it's all passed through, I wager that the morbidity will trend older and male and be the result of respiratory / renal failure or stroke.

 

[NEforceUConn]

Bought a ticket to go to Florida on the 23rd. I am 68 and in very good health. Going to buy a couple of good cigars and anybody who gets within 6' I am going to blow smoke on. Enjoy life it is to short as it is. I am also going golfing several days. Flying back on April 1.

How's that strategy work for the airport and airplane?

 

[pj]

I am wary of the "asymptomatic" because what are the chances a novel virus introduced to a naive environment is going to wait 5-10 days before viral load induces illness? I'd guess that the incubation is far quicker and contagiousness is not far ahead of that. The morbidity rate must depend on underlying factors, and for me, hypertension (a common malady with few symptoms) fits the hypothesis. When it's all passed through, I wager that the morbidity will trend older and male and be the result of respiratory / renal failure or stroke.

So far, mortality has been due to interstitial pneumonia -- basically, the air sacs of the lungs filling with fluid and mucus so that people suffocate to death.

 

[Bomber36]

I mean at this point how can anyone consider this a hoax? Is the entire country of Italy lying about a nationwide quarantine? South Korea? Many others....Do people think somehow we are special and that somehow we are the exception and this is just something that happens to "other" people? The hoax people are dangerous because they will be the ones that facilitate the community spread. It's really a shame that people are so jaded nowadays that they think everything is fake or a hoax. Listen to medical professionals, not politicians on either side with an agenda. Even if you're skeptical to the extent of it, it's still better to be cautious than dismissive when lives are potentially at stake.

Anyone who thinks this is a hoax, is at this point, simply a moron.

 

[Dove]

Adding...if produce is unwrapped then we're avoiding.

 

[storrsroars]

Adding...if produce is unwrapped then we're avoiding.

Adding Waste Management to the stock buy list...

 

[UCfor3]

Anyone who thinks this is a hoax, is at this point, simply a moron.

Exhibit A: A few posts above someone isn't worried because " they've had a cold". Yeah, nations are shutting down because of the sniffles. Smh...

 

[David 76]

Flu?
way more contagious
10 times as lethal
may not be seasonal

the U.S. has 800,000 hospital beds
70,000 ICU adult beds
65,000 intubation devices
If we go beyond that, what happens? Decisions on who is a better bet for being intubated will be an issue.