Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[WestCoastHusky]

Seven schools I believe want to break the GOR. How hard is it going to be for their competitors to entice some holdouts to join those seven in a vote to dissolve the conference?

If I had any doubts prior to this week they are now gone.

All SEC and B1G have to do is pick 4 teams each from the ACC, send a message to those schools that they are in if they get out of the ACC, and it can be done right now.

It will just take some coordination between the B1G and the SEC in the back channels, and it can happen in a week. I am pretty sure that's the next move cause no ACC schools want to wait 13 years to see their fate. If all 8 ACC schools have the next home planned out, they can and will dissolve the ACC tomorrow.

ESPN might get SEC to do this now before FOX/B1G take more teams down the road.

 

[ctchamps]

Not sure what Stanford and Cal bring to the B1G at this point. I think the B1G is now done until the ACC implodes. B1G eventually gets to 24 with :

-Notre Dame
-UNC
-Virginia
-Georgia Tech
-Florida State
-Miami

The 24 team model makes sense. Who do have the SEC taking?

 

[upstater]

Doubtful. At least Seven of the best ACC programs will be gone by then.

I count 5 at best, but more likely only 4.

Which do you think have that value?

Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida St, Clemson.

That's it.

If I had to predict, it would be ND and Virginia to the B1G, with UNC and Florida St to the SEC.

My only question really is Clemson. It depends on whether the SEC wants to duplicate a small state.

Either way, the leftovers of the ACC would be a lot more compelling than the B12 when it comes to markets. They'd have Atlanta, South Carolina, Raleigh Durham, parts of Virginia, Pittsburgh, etc., these are heavily populated areas.

 

[CL82]

Yeah, because the PAC's media partners were so willing to negotiate up with them.....

Apples and oranges. $30 million for West Coast content is decidedly different than $4 million for East Coast content.

One might choose to negotiate with the dealership when buying a $45k car but not try to whittle down the kid next door to see if you can get your lawn cut less expensively.

 

[upstater]

All SEC and B1G have to do is pick 4 teams each from the ACC, send a message to those schools that they are in if they get out of the ACC, and it will be done right now.

It will just take some coordination between the B1G and the SEC, and it can happen in a week. I am pretty sure that's next cause no ACC schools want to wait 13 years to see their fate.

Why would the other schools allow them out?

 

[LoyalFanCT]

I am not sure Cal will be asked to join B10. Stanford might be along with FSU or Notre Dame. I feel bad for Cal because like UConn
it is a university that could offer a lot to conference.

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

Question for the class-

If we had hired Jim Mora 3 years ago, would we have a seat at the table?

 

[upstater]

What I am curious about is what is the SEC going to do at this point? They don't play second fiddle to anyone in their minds and the B1G just made a huge play. The SEC has no ability to respond until the ACC GOR expires. And even then, I think that the B1G will be getting first dibs on the ACC teams before the SEC. They are likely going to be stuck taking some combination of Clemson, Virginia Tech, NC State, Duke, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Kansas, etc....hardly the impact that the B1G is going to have.

North Carolina will be SEC.

I'm not as certain about FSU since the B1G has no footprint there, but it's possible they too are SEC.

If the SEC can't take FSU, it would take Clemson.

I still only see 4 football schools leaving + ND.

 

[DCUconnfan]

Why would the other schools allow them out?

They won't, not without a big hefty payday that would make them solvent for 5-10 years thereafter.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Why would the other schools allow them out?

It will just take 8 to dissolve the ACC. Without the ACC, there is no GOR.

 

[Fishy]

Why do you think that fox will reduce the value of the big East deal? I could see the argument for a nominal increase, or even standing pat, but I can't see it getting reduced.

If you’re a betting man, do not bet on a raise.

I can see Fox saying no, thank you.

The PAC12 just folded because they could not get a linear deal. Fox is cutting expenses and they’ve just added or are about to add a total of eight schools - they have plenty of inventory. And there’s no leverage - ESPN has no room.

A lot has changed since the Big12 signed their deal - Ackerman knows that which is why she said she wanted to renegotiate now instead of down the road. She’s really smart, but this is not a generous game - the networks will give as little as they can.

(E.g. ESPN giving us $1.5M a year in 2012 and their refusal to even consider opening the ACC deal now.)

 

[CL82]

Kind of like Susie's "We are champions...blah..blah...blah" after we got out maneuvered by Louisville community college for the ACC spot.

Welcome to the MWC Washington State!

Oh, the famous "we are winning winners who win" speech. A landmark in American oratory, right up there with the Gettysburg Address.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Question for the class-

If we had hired Jim Mora 3 years ago, would we have a seat at the table?

Yes. Randy Edsall 2.0 was one of the worst decisions ever by UCONN admin and AD Dave.

 

[Bongo Fury]

Why do you think that fox will reduce the value of the big East deal? I could see the argument for a nominal increase, or even standing pat, but I can't see it getting reduced.

Everyone loves a bargain

 

[Fishy]

Seven schools I believe want to break the GOR. How hard is it going to be for their competitors to entice some holdouts to join those seven in a vote to dissolve the conference?

If I had any doubts prior to this week they are now gone.

So you think that these seven or eight schools are dissolve a conference to void a network deal with ESPN and then they are going to just move to another conference and receive more money….from ESPN.

I can explain why this is not going to happen, but it should be pretty apparent to you.

 

[upstater]

They won't, not without a big hefty payday that would make them solvent for 5-10 years thereafter.

I doubt they would even be able to pay that because the remaining schools would all be worried they'd lose their slot in the CFP.

2036 is a long time from now. These schools are assured until then. Why would any President risk their position? Duke and Wake Forest and VT and NC State are looking at Cal and Stanford right now and they're thinking, NFW!

The money the ACC will be making in 5 years is $60m. Overall that's $600m+ to the end of the contract. How in the world are the 4 schools going to come up with that money, especially if it causes all sorts of damage to the remaining schools?

If it were me, I would take that contract until its very end. Oklahoma and Texas negotiated an enormous buyout with 1 year left. It shows you the leverage a school like Kansas St has over Texas.

 

[upstater]

It will just take 8 to dissolve the ACC. Without the ACC, there is no GOR.

I guarantee you won't get 5.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

So you think that these seven or eight schools are dissolve a conference to void a network deal with ESPN and then they are going to just move to another conference and receive more money….from ESPN.

I can explain why this is not going to happen, but it should be pretty apparent to you.

Unless the schools leaving the ACC will create more enticing matches in the SEC or the B1G, and ESPN can generate more ad revenue from those matches vs. the ones they got in the ACC.

 

[businesslawyer]

Question for the class-

If we had hired Jim Mora 3 years ago, would we have a seat at the table?

No. Three more years of improving independent football playing unranked schools, and getting attendance up to, say, 25k a game, would not have a material effect on the XII's decision this week.

 

[LoyalFanCT]

I guarantee you won't get 5.

I don't agree. There are probably all sorts of secret agreements already in place.

 

[How Sway?!]

It will just take 8 to dissolve the ACC. Without the ACC, there is no GOR.

I seriously doubt it takes a little over 50 percent to dissolve a conference. If someone wants to leave before the GOR expires, it's going to take half a billion at least.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

Yes. Randy Edsall 2.0 was one of the worst decisions ever by UCONN admin and AD Dave.

Dave had no money to make a hire and we were stuck in the hell hole of the AAC. He was choosing between a cast of complete fools who were interested in the job. NOBODY of worth wanted the job.

To act like he had his pick of the litter and chose RE for the hell of it is batshit insane.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

Why would the other schools allow them out?

I thought I had heard a couple of years ago that they would need 75% of ACC teams to vote to dissolve the conference. If that is the case, they would need 12 teams. It would have to be a coordinated attack by the B1G, SEC, and B12 at the same time--and I don't see them all working together on that front. And not sure the teams going to the B12 would agree to it, as there is no financial incentive to dissolve early (as the ACC currently gets more $).

It would have to be something like:

ACC - Notre Dame, UNC, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Florida St
SEC - Clemson, Miami, NC State, Duke, Pittsburgh
B12 - Louisville, Syracuse

While I'd love to see it happen just to see BC screwed, I don't see that happening.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

So you think that these seven or eight schools are dissolve a conference to void a network deal with ESPN and then they are going to just move to another conference and receive more money….from ESPN.

I can explain why this is not going to happen, but it should be pretty apparent to you.

What is your new favorite program?

 

[businesslawyer]

So you think that these seven or eight schools are dissolve a conference to void a network deal with ESPN and then they are going to just move to another conference and receive more money….from ESPN.

I can explain why this is not going to happen, but it should be pretty apparent to you.

Did you consider that if it was pretty apparent to him he wouldn't have made the post?

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

Dave had no money to make a hire and we were stuck in the hell hole of the AAC. He was choosing between a cast of complete fools who were interested in the job. NOBODY of worth wanted the job.

To act like he had his pick of the litter and chose RE for the hell of it is batshit insane.

His choice was bring back Diaco, or bring on Edsall. Those were his two choices at the time (the boosters would only pay the Diaco buyout and new coach if it was Edsall). While Edsall was a complete disaster, I still don't know if it was better to take on HCRE2.0 or continue with the complete incompetence of Diaco.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

I seriously doubt it takes a little over 50 percent to dissolve a conference. If someone wants to leave before the GOR expires, it's going to take half a billion at least.

Pretty sure it takes 8 to dissolve the conference. That's 4 each between SEC and the B1G.

 

[Bongo Fury]

Wasn’t available, influenced to hire RE. If you think they didn’t have 150k to give to Dunn, you are naive. Didn’t care to.

 

[Vowelguy]

Not sure what Stanford and Cal bring to the B1G at this point. I think the B1G is now done until the ACC implodes. B1G eventually gets to 24 with :

-Notre Dame
-UNC
-Virginia
-Georgia Tech
-Florida State
-Miami

Why does everyone keep saying Miami and GaTech?
Miami has been mediocre at best since they joined the ACC. GT worse.
Tho at least GA is a recruiting hotbed.

Miami is way overvalued on the Internets.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Dave had no money to make a hire and we were stuck in the hell hole of the AAC. He was choosing between a cast of complete fools who were interested in the job. NOBODY of worth wanted the job.

To act like he had his pick of the litter and chose RE for the hell of it is batshit insane.

There were multiple coaches from the MAC that could have taken the same amount and did 10x the job Edsall did. Edsall 2.0 was one of the worst hires ever. In many ways, it is even worse than PP and Red Pants since the third time is usually the charm.