OT: Celtics / Cavs megadeal

[the Q]

Kyrie, and Tatum is alot of PT for guys who can't defend anyone.

 

[Walker11]

I'm surprised by your take on this. From Boston's standpoint, the deal is pretty much Kyrie for the #1 straight up. And I don't think they should have done it.

It could turn out to be a disaster, no doubt. I think Kyrie is going to take a step up and become a consensus top 10ish player. They really had to move on from IT IMO. And Crowder is going to be in a minute squeeze. They just better hope that Bagley doesn't turn into AD on the Nets. If Kyrie is going to make the leap, and if they land a Porter or Ayton and they are comparable to Bagley, it looks like a massive win. Its a risk, just too early to tell.

 

[the Q]

Draft Express scouting report on Tatum wasn't as limited as your incorrect mind thinks: :

STRENGTHS -Nice size and length for a wing at 6' 7” with a 6' 10” wingspan -Continues to make progress on his body – 206 pounds of lean muscle. Has gained 15 pounds since he weighed in at 191 pounds before the 2014 FIBA U17 World Championship, and 40 pounds in the past three years. Big shoulders. -Very good athlete who displays excellent fluidity and can play above the rim both in transition and the half court. Extremely agile and coordinated. Great body control. - Source: DraftExpress - Jayson Tatum DraftExpress Profile: Stats, Comparisons, and Outlook ©DraftExpress

I can find scouting reports to back up any point I want.

He also doesn't have much of a first step, not great handles and doesn't move well laterally.

Despite Tatum's size and fluidity, he's not an exceptionally explosive athlete by NBA standards, with an average first step that was further slowed down by a high and loose dribble - Source: DraftExpress - Jayson Tatum DraftExpress Profile: Stats, Comparisons, and Outlook ©DraftExpress

Danny's had a bad run recently outside of Hayward, and that's really Brad's win.

 

[tzznandrew]

They could have wound up with the above-the-rim big man they desperately needed in Ayton or Bamba.

They still might. 2-5 if the Lakers aren't great. There's a decent chance they get in that range anyway.

 

[tzznandrew]

lol @ title

I'm about to merge the threads. But (sorry @husky429 ) I figured I'd screen shot this so it is relevant.

 

[husky429]

lol @ title

HAHA I think might be having trouble processing.

 

[bballgrda]

Will be interesting to see how Jae Crowder's role plays out. Pretty sure he has more trade value than IT - taking into consideration injury history, contract length, and size/age. I could see him being quite helpful for Cleveland against GSW. If IT is healthy this could be a win-win for Cleveland giving them a better chance to compete now and down the line. Not a big fan of this trade for Boston, time will tell.

 

[auror]

It's worth mentioning that there is a considerable amount of data that suggests Kyrie is immensely overrated. There is a lot of other information - like the fact that he is absolutely unstoppable in the playoffs and might be the best one on one player in the league - that indicates the opposite.

We've discussed this before, but scoring ability 1 on 1 is infinitely more valuable on a contending team than any other type of team, because team defense gets better in the playoffs with guys more committed and more rested.

That he is, to my knowledge, the only player in league history - much less a star in his prime - to walk away from LeBron would be a big red flag to me. And for however proven he is as a clutch performer in the playoffs, he still hasn't proven he can do it detached from the wing of the best player of this generation. That seems significant and if it's possible to underrate LeBron, people are sure doing it now.

Would you want to be on a team with Lebron? If you could instead be on a different winning team? I mean honestly. It's great to be on a winning team and he guarantees that, but his machinations and drama and media leaks and front office manipulation have to be grating. Especially since it's clear he's holding the Cavs hostage to contend now, leave the cupboard bare, and then bolt LA. I don't blame Kyrie for getting out in front. Plus Kyrie got his Lebron-aided ring already.

The IT/Kyrie swap isn't the part I hate, though. I don't even hate losing Crowder, who secretly was probably the biggest winner of anybody in this deal. What I hate is the Brooklyn pick. That was the singular, perpetually tantalizing card that their potential dynasty hinged on. They could have wound up with the above-the-rim big man they desperately needed in Ayton or Bamba. They could have landed Bagley or Porter. Instead their faith will rest upon Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, the former of whom has yet to display anything more than flashes and the latter of whom figures to be the Kyrie of his position, a gifted scorer perhaps better suited for a previous era.

If everything goes right, they could be the Chris Paul era Clippers. They're not even that good yet, though.

They could still draft one of those guys if the Lakers pick conveys 2-5, which I'd say is more likely than not (and if not they get better of Phily/Sac pick in 2019, top 1 protected, which is A-okay)..

So yeah, they could be the Clippers if the Clippers also drafted in the top 5 for 3 straight years and owned 3 other additional first rounders aside from their own during their run. Clippers biggest problem was always depth, but Celtics won't have that problem with talented players on rookie scale deals.

 

[Walker11]

Will be interesting to see how Jae Crowder's role plays out. Pretty sure he has more trade value than IT - taking into consideration injury history, contract length, and size/age. I could see him being quite helpful for Cleveland against GSW. If IT is healthy this could be a win-win for Cleveland giving them a better chance to compete now and down the line. Not a big fan of this trade for Boston, time will tell.

No doubt. Crowder seems like he should be a perfect fit vs the Dubs. The one consideration is that it seems like every Celtics fan is lower on Jae than I am.

 

[champs99and04]

It could turn out to be a disaster, no doubt. I think Kyrie is going to take a step up and become a consensus top 10ish player. They really had to move on from IT IMO. And Crowder is going to be in a minute squeeze. They just better hope that Bagley doesn't turn into AD on the Nets. If Kyrie is going to make the leap, and if they land a Porter or Ayton and they are comparable to Bagley, it looks like a massive win. Its a risk, just too early to tell.

They still might. 2-5 if the Lakers aren't great. There's a decent chance they get in that range anyway.

Fair points, but the future picks didn't have to be mutually exclusive. Keep both, and you're essentially guaranteeing yourself a seat at the table next year in what could be a top-heavy draft. You also allow for the possibility of striking gold with two top five picks.

This is what really bugs me about the situation, though: it's really hard to be good in the NBA as a rookie and it's even harder when you're only one year removed from high school. Chances are, Brown and Tatum - 20 and 19, respectively - will struggle to contribute to winning on a consistent basis over the next two years. That means Ainge has forged a world of dueling paths - with one set of eyes on the future and another on the present - that are vulnerable to conflicting interests as Kyrie, a ball dominant solo act, serves his two year Boston tour with an entirely different timetable in mind than the organization presented to him.

Ultimately, I think Ainge felt forced. He has quite brilliantly obtained an unprecedented amount of organizational flexibility - the problem is that where there is no precedent, you're more prone to mistakes.

 

[Walker11]

Fair points, but the future picks didn't have to be mutually exclusive. Keep both, and you're essentially guaranteeing yourself a seat at the table next year in what could be a top-heavy draft. You also allow for the possibility of striking gold with two top five picks.

This is what really bugs me about the situation, though: it's really hard to be good in the NBA as a rookie and it's even harder when you're only one year removed from high school. Chances are, Brown and Tatum - 20 and 19, respectively - will struggle to contribute to winning on a consistent basis over the next two years. That means Ainge has forged a world of dueling paths - with one set of eyes on the future and another on the present - that are vulnerable to conflicting interests as Kyrie, a ball dominant solo act, serves his two year Boston tour with an entirely different timetable in mind than the organization presented to him.

Ultimately, I think Ainge felt forced. He has quite brilliantly obtained an unprecedented amount of organizational flexibility - the problem is that where there is no precedent, you're more prone to mistakes.

I agree with all of this. If you look at my initial reaction, you will see that I am not as super gung-ho on the move as you may think.

"I can not believe they included the Nets pick! Wow. I don't think the Lakers pick is going to convey, which would mean the Celtics will be getting the SAC pick in 19, which is not a lock for the top 5 and who knows how good that class is. Horford is falling off and next years class is incredibly loaded with bigs. I don't hate it - getting off IT was necessary but in comparison to the deals for Butler and PG, this seems a bit much."

I just really like Kyrie and think he is going to thrive as the man with some good complementary players alongside him. I am betting on Kyrie being better than the consensus. Its a huge cop out to say that you can't judge a trade until years later but that is the truth.

 

[Jerry1714]

People can bang on Ainge but in the last 2 years he has brought in 3 guys coming off All Star appearances in Horford, Hayward, and Kyrie. If you told me in 2015 those 3 would be in Boston I woulda said you were crazy.

 

[auror]

My take:

It's a good trade for the Celts and a great trade for the Cavs.

For the Celts: Getting off IT without committing to a huge contract, freeing up minutes for Hayward/Jaylen/Tatum and getting a massively popular (insane shoe sales / Uncle Drew marketing) superstar in his prime for 2 seasons+ is a big deal. Kyrie is 3 years younger than Jimmy Butler and 2 years younger than Paul George. He is just entering his prime now (He's 25, 27 typically is NBA peak). You always make the trade for the in prime star if you don't cripple yourself in the process. Always.

It's a steep price, especially the Nets pick, even if the Nets might be on an upswing now after acquiring Russell, and Jae's very friendly contract. Zizic was also an appealing prospect, but the salaries had to work. When you acquire this many picks, however, you can't keep them all (even with foreign stashing). At some point you either have to let veterans go in Free Agency for no value or trade multiple players to marginally upgrade a starting role. You can afford to overpay a bit in this scenario, as marginal upgrades at the highest level are both more expensive AND more important.

Also, if you think about it, the great contracts that Jae and IT were on already served their purpose for Boston. They allowed the Celtics to sign Hayward without having to trade assets for him and giving up only minimal cap casualties (had to trade Bradley at a bit of a value loss, but not egregiously so considering his contract status). Now that Boston was over the cap, the contracts would have more value elsewhere as trade chips, and they were successfully used as such in this trade.

Considering how popular Stevens is, the respect the front office has around the league and comments Kyrie/Ainge has made, I would be surprised if Kyrie leaves after 2 years. He'll opt out, but they'll pay him. Especially if some of the other talent like Tatum/Brown pan out. They've set themselves up as a top 3 seed in the East for the next 7 or so years. Whereas IT and Crowder guaranteed nothing in the long term. Draft picks are coveted because they give you the best chance to get a star, but they're especially risky... unless you can trade them for a bonafide star, which you should essentially always do if the price is reasonable.

For the Cavs: This is a masterful deal for the Cavs, especially relative to what was being thrown about in rumors. It accomplishes both short term keeping the team competitive with Lebron here, and reloading the roster if he decides to leave next year with the high pick. IT even expires same time LeBron expects to leave, so they won't be cap stuck. They also saved a boatload of moeny this year, something like $15 million, thanks to the very friendly deals that IT and Crowder were on. They got exactly what they wanted, even with limited leverage.

The leverage aspect of this trade is the reason why it isn't a slam dunk for the Celtics. Could they have traded a worse pick in place of Brooklyn's if they waited? I guess we won't know, but the return is still good as is.

 

[the Q]

ESPN Insider gave Boston a C for the deal.

Sounds about right .

 

[the Q]

People can bang on Ainge but in the last 2 years he has brought in 3 guys coming off All Star appearances in Horford, Hayward, and Kyrie. If you told me in 2015 those 3 would be in Boston I woulda said you were crazy.

Brad brought in Hayward. Don't steal his win to give it to the guy who is still living off 2007 and one trade with Brooklyn.

The recent espn article about the rebuilding of the celtics...danny really only won like 2 trades on the entire list. Granted it was the big ones, but this one is bad.

 

[auror]

Kyrie, and Tatum is alot of PT for guys who can't defend anyone.

Their next 4 best players are all + defenders though (Smart, Brown, Horford, Hayward).

ESPN Insider gave Boston a C for the deal.

Sounds about right .

What's the Celts part say? My Insider sub lapsed and I'm interested in KP's take.

 

[the Q]

Their next 4 best players are all + defenders though (Smart, Brown, Horford, Hayward).



What's the Celts part say? My Insider sub lapsed and I'm interested in KP's take.

- resigning IT puts the C's deep into the tax, and hard to manage. Even with the young talent around them. So moving on and kicking the extension can down the road helps.

- Kyrie's age (25) fits the Celtics timeline with GH (27) better than IT.

- RPM had Crowder as the 20th best player in the league last year...and the best player in the trade.

- hurts celtics depth, 5 of the celitcs top 5 players in minutes last year are gone.

- C's relying a lot more on Brown/Tatum this . year and neither is likely to be close to Crowder over the next 2 years, meaning boston is less likely to make the finals or get the #1 seed this year.

 

[JSM1970]

C's favorite in East, have to be

Great move, makes them immediate favorite

 

[JSM1970]

Only if Nets pick becomes Bagley or Porter

ESPN Insider gave Boston a C for the deal.

Sounds about right .

 

[the Q]

Only if Nets pick becomes Bagley or Porter

That makes it a D

 

[HuskyHawk]

As a Celtics fan, going through last year, there is a lot of love for IT, Crowder (and the Nets pick!) - but a 25 year old Kyrie who is signed long term is a no brainer at this point.

He's signed for two years. He can opt out of the third.

 

[Walker11]

- resigning IT puts the C's deep into the tax, and hard to manage. Even with the young talent around them. So moving on and kicking the extension can down the road helps.

- Kyrie's age (25) fits the Celtics timeline with GH (27) better than IT.

- RPM had Crowder as the 20th best player in the league last year...and the best player in the trade.

- hurts celtics depth, 5 of the celitcs top 5 players in minutes last year are gone.

- C's relying a lot more on Brown/Tatum this . year and neither is likely to be close to Crowder over the next 2 years, meaning boston is less likely to make the finals or get the #1 seed this year.

I like Crowder. When you have a stat that is valuing Crowder as the 20th best player in the league, that is more of an indictment on the methodology than a point towards Jae.

 

[Waquoit]

Paul Pierce.

So you're saying once every 19 years? Does that help your argument?

 

[len0322]

That makes it a D

I think it's a great move: look at the celts nets trade as a whole:
Celts gave an aging Pierce, Garnett, and Terry
In return. Young (bust), brown (top 7 rotation), tatum (high ceiling), Irving (foundation player), and a potential 2018/19 lottery pick.


Would have loved to keep 2018 nets,but this is a great deal

 

[the Q]

I like Crowder. When you have a stat that is valuing Crowder as the 20th best player in the league, that is more of an indictment on the methodology than a point towards Jae.

Idk, the first 19 look pretty reasonable.

NBA Real Plus-Minus - National Basketball Association - ESPN