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OT: Celtics / Cavs megadeal

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the Q

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I think it's a great move: look at the celts nets trade as a whole:
Celts gave an aging Pierce, Garnett, and Terry
In return. Young (bust), brown (top 7 rotation), tatum (high ceiling), Irving (foundation player), and a potential 2018/19 lottery pick.


Would have loved to keep 2018 nets,but this is a great deal

It's a lost opportunity. Barely maxed out at all.

Tatum is not high ceiling. Not compared to his peers in his class or the guys next year. Poor man's Melo.
 
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My take:

It's a good trade for the Celts and a great trade for the Cavs.

For the Celts: Getting off IT without committing to a huge contract, freeing up minutes for Hayward/Jaylen/Tatum and getting a massively popular (insane shoe sales / Uncle Drew marketing) superstar in his prime for 2 seasons+ is a big deal. Kyrie is 3 years younger than Jimmy Butler and 2 years younger than Paul George. He is just entering his prime now (He's 25, 27 typically is NBA peak). You always make the trade for the in prime star if you don't cripple yourself in the process. Always.

It's a steep price, especially the Nets pick, even if the Nets might be on an upswing now after acquiring Russell, and Jae's very friendly contract. Zizic was also an appealing prospect, but the salaries had to work. When you acquire this many picks, however, you can't keep them all (even with foreign stashing). At some point you either have to let veterans go in Free Agency for no value or trade multiple players to marginally upgrade a starting role. You can afford to overpay a bit in this scenario, as marginal upgrades at the highest level are both more expensive AND more important.

Also, if you think about it, the great contracts that Jae and IT were on already served their purpose for Boston. They allowed the Celtics to sign Hayward without having to trade assets for him and giving up only minimal cap casualties (had to trade Bradley at a bit of a value loss, but not egregiously so considering his contract status). Now that Boston was over the cap, the contracts would have more value elsewhere as trade chips, and they were successfully used as such in this trade.

Considering how popular Stevens is, the respect the front office has around the league and comments Kyrie/Ainge has made, I would be surprised if Kyrie leaves after 2 years. He'll opt out, but they'll pay him. Especially if some of the other talent like Tatum/Brown pan out. They've set themselves up as a top 3 seed in the East for the next 7 or so years. Whereas IT and Crowder guaranteed nothing in the long term. Draft picks are coveted because they give you the best chance to get a star, but they're especially risky... unless you can trade them for a bonafide star, which you should essentially always do if the price is reasonable.

For the Cavs: This is a masterful deal for the Cavs, especially relative to what was being thrown about in rumors. It accomplishes both short term keeping the team competitive with Lebron here, and reloading the roster if he decides to leave next year with the high pick. IT even expires same time LeBron expects to leave, so they won't be cap stuck. They also saved a boatload of moeny this year, something like $15 million, thanks to the very friendly deals that IT and Crowder were on. They got exactly what they wanted, even with limited leverage.

The leverage aspect of this trade is the reason why it isn't a slam dunk for the Celtics. Could they have traded a worse pick in place of Brooklyn's if they waited? I guess we won't know, but the return is still good as is.

I could quibble with a few ideas but I think this is a great post and more worthwhile than whatever I would have paid ESPN to read Pelton's insider content. Kyrie's timeline is so important when compared to IT's timeline.

The Celtics seemed to have infinite options but what could they really do to vault themselves into the Warriors tier? I think nothing. It's hard to even concoct speculative plans that would elevate them near that level. Hope NO tanks and they can snag AD? Maybe, but highly doubtful. Another star becomes disgruntled? I just don't like the wait and see game continuing forever. The best hope is really to lengthen the timeline so they are playing a different game than GSW. What was the best alternative? Simply hoping that the Nets pick turned out to be an absolute home-run and keeping IT on a contract that he will eventually under perform? Its a really tough call.
 

the Q

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And then Amir Johnson is #21.

Which would probably explain how the Celtics earned the #1 seed, no?
 
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The only things I dislike about Kyrie are he went to Duke and is a flat-earther

Great deal by the Celts, couldn't be more excited for next season

1 worry...team chemistry

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It's a lost opportunity. Barely maxed out at all.

Tatum is not high ceiling. Not compared to his peers in his class or the guys next year. Poor man's Melo.

He has a high enough ceiling compared to the rest of this year's draft class. Melo was a top 10 player in the league for a long time, if Tatum ends up like he or like Pierce then he's a hall of famer.
 

HuskyHawk

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No doubt. Crowder seems like he should be a perfect fit vs the Dubs. The one consideration is that it seems like every Celtics fan is lower on Jae than I am.

Jae had no potential playing time in Boston. He's ideal in Cleveland where the people who can guard him will be occupied with Lebron. His passing and defense will compliment Lebron perfectly. Boston needs offense so has to give the minutes to Hayward and Tatum.
 
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My take:

It's a good trade for the Celts and a great trade for the Cavs.

For the Celts: Getting off IT without committing to a huge contract, freeing up minutes for Hayward/Jaylen/Tatum and getting a massively popular (insane shoe sales / Uncle Drew marketing) superstar in his prime for 2 seasons+ is a big deal. Kyrie is 3 years younger than Jimmy Butler and 2 years younger than Paul George. He is just entering his prime now (He's 25, 27 typically is NBA peak). You always make the trade for the in prime star if you don't cripple yourself in the process. Always.

It's a steep price, especially the Nets pick, even if the Nets might be on an upswing now after acquiring Russell, and Jae's very friendly contract. Zizic was also an appealing prospect, but the salaries had to work. When you acquire this many picks, however, you can't keep them all (even with foreign stashing). At some point you either have to let veterans go in Free Agency for no value or trade multiple players to marginally upgrade a starting role. You can afford to overpay a bit in this scenario, as marginal upgrades at the highest level are both more expensive AND more important.

Also, if you think about it, the great contracts that Jae and IT were on already served their purpose for Boston. They allowed the Celtics to sign Hayward without having to trade assets for him and giving up only minimal cap casualties (had to trade Bradley at a bit of a value loss, but not egregiously so considering his contract status). Now that Boston was over the cap, the contracts would have more value elsewhere as trade chips, and they were successfully used as such in this trade.

Considering how popular Stevens is, the respect the front office has around the league and comments Kyrie/Ainge has made, I would be surprised if Kyrie leaves after 2 years. He'll opt out, but they'll pay him. Especially if some of the other talent like Tatum/Brown pan out. They've set themselves up as a top 3 seed in the East for the next 7 or so years. Whereas IT and Crowder guaranteed nothing in the long term. Draft picks are coveted because they give you the best chance to get a star, but they're especially risky... unless you can trade them for a bonafide star, which you should essentially always do if the price is reasonable.

For the Cavs: This is a masterful deal for the Cavs, especially relative to what was being thrown about in rumors. It accomplishes both short term keeping the team competitive with Lebron here, and reloading the roster if he decides to leave next year with the high pick. IT even expires same time LeBron expects to leave, so they won't be cap stuck. They also saved a boatload of moeny this year, something like $15 million, thanks to the very friendly deals that IT and Crowder were on. They got exactly what they wanted, even with limited leverage.

The leverage aspect of this trade is the reason why it isn't a slam dunk for the Celtics. Could they have traded a worse pick in place of Brooklyn's if they waited? I guess we won't know, but the return is still good as is.


Very good write up. Hard to say the Celts made a bad move when they got the best player in the deal and a bonafide playoff stud, but the Cavs had absolutely 0 leverage here, I'm pretty surprised Ainge gave up the Nets pick in such a top heavy draft as opposed to drawing a line and simply offering the Lakers/Kings pick instead. That likely would have still been the best offer on the table for the Cavs and one that they would probably have to make given their situation.
 
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Wow. Not sure what to think. Gotta believe this is a good trade for Cavs. Time will tell.
 

nomar

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I just wish the Celts gave another pick instead or put some protection on BK '18.

The team is a stud big away from a title and there are a bunch of potential studs in the 2018 draft. Now we need to rely on the Lakers to be in the 2-5 range.

I get why Ainge wanted the swap but he should have played hardball.

This should end the "Ainge is nothing but a hoarder" and "Ainge overrates his own players and is paralyzed by his need to win every trade" memes.
 
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I'm pretty surprised Ainge gave up the Nets pick in such a top heavy draft as opposed to drawing a line and simply offering the Lakers/Kings pick instead. That likely would have still been the best offer on the table for the Cavs and one that they would probably have to make given their situation.

I just wish the Celts gave another pick instead or put some protection on BK '18.

The team is a stud big away from a title and there are a bunch of potential studs in the 2018 draft. Now we need to rely on the Lakers to be in the 2-5 range.

I get why Ainge wanted the swap but he should have played hardball.

This should end the "Ainge is nothing but a hoarder" and "Ainge overrates his own players and is paralyzed by his need to win every trade" memes.

I think there's a better than 50/50 chance the Lakers/Kings pick ends up better than Brooklyn's pick. Lakers are going to be one of 2 bad teams in a loaded West which will depress their record, while Brooklyn has no incentive to tank, retooled their roster, has a competent coach, and there will be 5 or so really bad East teams (Atlanta, Orlando, Chicago, New York, Indiana, not even mentioning Sixers). It's very conceivable Brooklyn ends up in the 5-7 range and the Lakers in the 2-5 necessary for the pick to convey.
 

whaler11

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Kyrie is signed for 3 years so your talk of him re-signing makes literally 0 sense. Gordon Hayward just signed a 4 year deal. How long do you think NBA deals are???

Also, the Celtics have a potential other top 5 picks next year, the point of all these picks is to turn them in a superstar who can win a title, they just did that.

Well here is the rub... based on their price with your bookie they aren't any closer to winning a title this year.
 
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I think there's a better than 50/50 chance the Lakers/Kings pick ends up better than Brooklyn's pick. Lakers are going to be one of 2 bad teams in a loaded West which will depress their record, while Brooklyn has no incentive to tank, retooled their roster, has a competent coach, and there will be 5 or so really bad East teams (Atlanta, Orlando, Chicago, New York, Indiana, not even mentioning Sixers). It's very conceivable Brooklyn ends up in the 5-7 range and the Lakers in the 2-5 necessary for the pick to convey.

Disagree with the better than 50/50 notion. You could make that case, to be sure, but the Lakers pick ending up that high is mostly reliant on how good the West is relative to the East. The Nets "retooled" their roster by giving up their best player, and I'd argue that both the Knicks and Magic still look less bad on paper.


Plus there's also the possibility that the Lakers actually win the lottery, in which case the pick doesn't convey anyways. Either way, the Nets pick pretty much feels like a lock to be in the top 4 (that includes the possibility of actually being #1), whereas there's several hoops to jump through for the Lakers pick to be that high. The Lakers actually pretty aggressively tanked last year to try and keep their pick, and appear to have gotten better on paper from a team that didn't appear to be abjectly terrible last year prior to their tanking. The Nets on the other hand were just flat out bad during a season where they also had no incentive to tank, and they didn't make any moves that would appear to make them any better for this upcoming season.
 
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It could turn out to be a disaster, no doubt. I think Kyrie is going to take a step up and become a consensus top 10ish player. They really had to move on from IT IMO. And Crowder is going to be in a minute squeeze. They just better hope that Bagley doesn't turn into AD on the Nets. If Kyrie is going to make the leap, and if they land a Porter or Ayton and they are comparable to Bagley, it looks like a massive win. Its a risk, just too early to tell.
Kyrie may be top 10 offensively but did you see the defense he played in the finals. Yikes! The biggest winner in all of this..............yet again, the Golden State Warriors. Their hardest playoff series could be the 2nd round or conference finals.
 

nomar

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Kyrie may be top 10 offensively but did you see the defense he played in the finals. Yikes! The biggest winner in all of this....yet again, the Golden State Warriors. Their hardest playoff series could be the 2nd round or conference finals.

His defensive potential is better than IT's. You can't teach height. IT is 5'7".

I'm not happy about what we gave up, but Kyrie is already plainly better than IT. The 2016-17 stats don't show that but even as a Celtics fan I thought it was pretty obvious that Irving is on another level. He can be utterly unstoppable. And I think Stevens can get Kyrie to play better. BS gets the best out of everyone. Hopefully that extends to defense.
 
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Irving is headed to the city where his Dad played college basketball, so... his family has some experience with it. May help him stay for the long term.
 
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His defensive potential is better than IT's. You can't teach height. IT is 5'7".

I'm not happy about what we gave up, but Kyrie is already plainly better than IT. The 2016-17 stats don't show that but even as a Celtics fan I thought it was pretty obvious that Irving is on another level. He can be utterly unstoppable. And I think Stevens can get Kyrie to play better. BS gets the best out of everyone. Hopefully that extends to defense.
All true. Still not worth the inclusion of the unprotected Nets pick. Seems like Ainge out bid himself. Irving had to be gone before the start of camp.
 

polycom

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Do we give the warriors the championship now? I don't understand how the Cavs guard the warriors now...Kyrie is a horrible defender and IT basically can't be on the court.
 
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Do we give the warriors the championship now? I don't understand how the Cavs guard the warriors now...Kyrie is a horrible defender and IT basically can't be on the court.

Well yea. But we were giving the Warriors the championship before this trade too.
 

polycom

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Well yea. But we were giving the Warriors the championship before this trade too.
We'll at least before the series had to be played, now are we sure we need to play the NBA finals?
 

the Q

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We'll at least before the series had to be played, now are we sure we need to play the NBA finals?

If the C's win a single game in the finals they've overachieved.

If they win 2 or 3, Brad is a god.

If they steal a title from what will certainly be a laughably heavy favorite...Brad is Zeus.
 
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