Bracketology | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Bracketology

ucp990411 said:
While it is fun to project, you guys do realize that these predictions mean zilch and are almost always pretty far off other than predicting the top seeds. Can’t wait for selection Sunday.
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These brackets that people do at this point in the season aren't really projecting. They're just saying if the season ended today here's what the bracket would look like. Lots of games left for teams to move up and down.
 
awfuldan said:
www.espn.com

Men's Bracketology: What the SEC's bloated bubble means for the overall field

The conference could finish with anywhere from nine to 12 bids with Texas, Oklahoma and Auburn in question.
www.espn.com

Lunardi has us as a 5 playing the winner of Indiana / SDSU in Buffalo. Round 2 would (likely) be our old friend Josh Carlton and the Houston Cougars.
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Regardless of the way it shakes out the rest of the season I bet they find a way to put us in Houston's region. They love a good story line like the Carlton story.
 
If we are the 5 seed, I want to avoid Iona, Memphis, and UNC as our 12.

Other than that, here's my top 5 ranking of teams that scare me the most:

1) Texas Tech
2) Auburn
3) Gonzaga
4) Kansas
5) Kentucky

But honestly all of those teams are beatable, and we already beat one of them. If Polley and Hawk can provide 3 point shooting, this team can go the distance.
 
UofCT said:
Any shot we get Pittsburgh? I'll be there for the weekend cc @Pgh2Storrs. I think Buffalo is a 3 hour drive. Might make the trip if we play there.
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We are probably on the 4/5 line right now. Winning out the regular season would likely solidly have us as a 4. My guess is that we need to get to at least Saturday and beat Nova along the way to have a shot at the 3 seed in Pittsburgh.

I’m doing my best to will that into existence as that would be such a fun weekend. The last time we had the opening rounds here, Dan was in his last year at URI so I think it’s time he comes back and tortures Pitt dorks up close.
 
I'm sure we'll see an AAC team (Memphis or SMU) if the seeds work
 
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awfuldan said:
The Boneyard will crash for a lot longer than an hour if Carlton outplays our frontcourt in that game.
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I know Muntz is a loyal and true UConn fan, but will his ego allow him to place rooting for UConn ahead of rooting to come on afterwards for a pat oneself on one's back series of "I told you so" comments? Where is the smart money on that one?
 
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auror said:
Playing Iona and Rick Pitino in the 12-5 game would be absolutely terrifying.
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Yeah I would want no part of that.

This is part of why it's so important to get a 4 instead of a 5.

The drop off from a 12 seed -- which is usually a dangerous mid-major or a play-in winner getting hot at the right time -- to a 13, who is usually the winner of a so-so conference, is enormous, maybe more so than any other pair of seed lines.

Edit: elaborating, look at the numbers here. Records in the first round.

#3 seed wins 85%
#4 seed wins 79%
#5 seed wins 67%

Massive jump between #5 and #4.

 
cap10mayhem said:
Regardless of the way it shakes out the rest of the season I bet they find a way to put us in Houston's region. They love a good story line like the Carlton story.
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Without Sasser and Mark Houston is a dream matchup in the 4/5 game.
 
businesslawyer said:
I know Muntz is a loyal and true UConn fan, but will his ego allow him to place rooting for UConn instead of rooting to come on afterwards for a pat oneself on one's back series of "I told you so" comments? Where is the smart money on that one?
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lol I guess it's possible he can have his cake and eat it too if UConn wins and Carlton drops 20 & 15 on us.
 
businesslawyer said:
I know Muntz is a loyal and true UConn fan, but will his ego allow him to place rooting for UConn instead of rooting to come on afterwards for a pat oneself on one's back series of "I told you so" comments? Where is the smart money on that one?
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hahahahahahaha. 0% chance. He would bump Carlton's recruiting thread out of spite.
 
aburks41 said:
If we are the 5 seed, I want to avoid Iona, Memphis, and UNC as our 12.

Other than that, here's my top 5 ranking of teams that scare me the most:

1) Texas Tech
2) Auburn
3) Gonzaga
4) Kansas
5) Kentucky

But honestly all of those teams are beatable, and we already beat one of them. If Polley and Hawk can provide 3 point shooting, this team can go the distance.
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In general I agree with your post but, personally, I would be happy to see UNC. They only have 1 win over the field (#10 seed Michigan) and they've been blown out by several tournament teams already this season. Recently suffered a Quad 4 loss at home to Pitt too.

Would much rather play them than Iona.
 
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Tenspro2002 said:
Yeah I would want no part of that.

This is part of why it's so important to get a 4 instead of a 5.

The drop off from a 12 seed -- which is usually a dangerous mid-major or a play-in winner getting hot at the right time -- to a 13, who is usually the winner of a so-so conference, is enormous, maybe more so than any other pair of seed lines.

Edit: elaborating, look at the numbers here. Records in the first round.

#3 seed wins 85%
#4 seed wins 79%
#5 seed wins 67%

Massive jump between #5 and #4.

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Agreed. 5 seed is dangerous. What too many are forgetting about #1 seeds is that a lot of them never get to the second weekend. They are guaranteed to face a tough team in the winner of the 8/9 game.

So as a #4, that's what you're hoping for. #1 is knocked off and #5 is knocked out by a #12. There is no easy seed after the first two days.
 
In terms of Lunardi, we are 1 away from a 4 on the seed list
FMeH9VsXsAAMYut
 
UofCT said:
It happens very regularly actually. Last year we saw UCLA make the final four as an 11-seed

In 2019 - Auburn made it as a 5-seed
In 2018 - Loyola Chicago made it as an 11-seed
In 2017 - South Carolina made it as a 7-seed
In 2016 - Syracuse made it as a 10-seed
In 2015 - Michigan State made it as a 7-seed.

Every year higher seeds make the final four. You don't need to be a 1, 2, or 3. That is my point. I'd obviously prefer a favorable seed but let's not pretend that is impossible to make the final four if you're not a higher seed. It happens all the time. Legitimately every year.
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You said we won a national championship as a 7 seed, and now you're talking about Final Fours. Those are different.

Further, no one said it is impossible. Just that it is more favorable at higher seeds. Would you rather be a 1 seed or a 7? A 3 or an 11?

The magic is that anything is possible, but I'm trusting on the math.
 
HooperScooper said:
The Boneyard crashed for about an hour so it wasn't just what you were trying to do. I guess the Russians aren't UConn fans.
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Yep, I noticed that but the timing is similar but different.
 
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t8per said:


Stop the count!!! I would sign up for this in a heart beat
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Wow.

That would be about as dream scenario as you get. Texas is having issues and they just had Mitchell leave the team.

The Pac12 isn't that good and Danny has an axe to grind with Oregon from the NCAA with URI a few years back.

Xavier/Loyola/Auburn - beatable or have beaten this year.

Only way that gets better if it was in the Philly bracket - but then obviously no Auburn.
 
tzznandrew said:
You said we won a national championship as a 7 seed, and now you're talking about Final Fours. Those are different.

Further, no one said it is impossible. Just that it is more favorable at higher seeds. Would you rather be a 1 seed or a 7? A 3 or an 11?

The magic is that anything is possible, but I'm trusting on the math.
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I think we are saying the same thing. I agree with you
 
HuskyHawk said:
Agreed. 5 seed is dangerous. What too many are forgetting about #1 seeds is that a lot of them never get to the second weekend. They are guaranteed to face a tough team in the winner of the 8/9 game.

So as a #4, that's what you're hoping for. #1 is knocked off and #5 is knocked out by a #12. There is no easy seed after the first two days.
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Actually, #1 seeds make the Sweet 16 about 85% of the time. It's almost unavoidable to encounter one if you're a 4/5.

This is the importance of being a 3 over a 4.

Honestly, if the choice is being a #6 or a #5, I'd almost take the #6.

But a #4 vs. #5, #4 is much better because of the huge difference in first round opponent.

And #3 vs. #4, #3 is much, much better because of avoiding the #1 seed.
 
tzznandrew said:
You said we won a national championship as a 7 seed, and now you're talking about Final Fours. Those are different.

Further, no one said it is impossible. Just that it is more favorable at higher seeds. Would you rather be a 1 seed or a 7? A 3 or an 11?

The magic is that anything is possible, but I'm trusting on the math.
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It all started with the original post saying we need to get a 3 seed to make a run, which is dumb. It would definitely help but as long as we end up with a top 5 seed I'm going to be very confident going into the tournament
 
cap10mayhem said:
Regardless of the way it shakes out the rest of the season I bet they find a way to put us in Houston's region. They love a good story line like the Carlton story.
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We may end up with Houston, but the committee considering the fact that Carlton transferred from UConn is not on the radar at all for matchups
 
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shizzle787 said:
At 26-7 with no bad losses and 16 Quad 1 and 2 wins we would be a 2 seed.
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winning out, alone, will not get us a 2 seed if the teams ahead of us keep playing well.

most of the 1 and 2 seeds will also be coming off conference tourney chips or at least have made it to their respective conference finals, e.g, gonzana, arizona, auburn, kansas, kentucky, baylor, ucla, purdue, duke, wisconsin, texas tech.

that's 11 teams right there so we need a couple of them to implode in addition to winning out
 
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MJKI said:
Give me that Buffalo regional. So easy to get to from Logan or JFK/LGA, awesome drinking city, an absolute must go if we get lucky and get placed there
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i drove there from Hartford for the 2016 NHL Draft. Absolutely worth driving the hours. So many great sights in upstate New York! Awesome city of course.
 
UConNick said:
I’ve seen a couple brackets today that had us moving up to the 5 line - this is the first one where we’re all the way up to a 4.

If we do make it to the 4-line, that hopefully means first weekend games in Buffalo, which would be awesome for the fanbase.
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Win out the season we’re a 3.
 
awfuldan said:
In general I agree with your post but, personally, I would be happy to see UNC. They only have 1 win over the field (#10 seed Michigan) and they've been blown out by several tournament teams already this season. Recently suffered a Quad 4 loss at home to Pitt too.

Would much rather play them than Iona.
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I know UNC is down, but that doesn’t mean I’d rather see them over Iona. Iona has a nice win over Alabama. Their next best win is…maybe Liberty on a neutral court? Monmouth on the road? UNC shoots threes well enough to be a minor threat, although they wouldn't exactly worry me, either.

I agree with the point several have made that being a 4 seed is clearly preferable to being a 5 seed. That’s a reasonable expectation at this point.
 
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