Bracketology

[awfuldan]

This is far and away the most favorable projected bracket I've seen yet for the good guys. #4 seed playing KenPom 79 Chatanooga in round one. Round 2 would be USC (just one Mobley this time around) or Miami (hit or miss bubble team from the softest iteration of the ACC in years). Our #1 seed? The only one that we know for a fact our team can beat on a good day.

Would sign up for this in a heartbeat.

 

[elmcityboy]

love this bracket. 6th year grad transfer charlie moore is the point guard for miami. he is still having nightmares about uconn from his stint on depaul last year.

 

[UConNick]

I’ve seen a couple brackets today that had us moving up to the 5 line - this is the first one where we’re all the way up to a 4.

If we do make it to the 4-line, that hopefully means first weekend games in Buffalo, which would be awesome for the fanbase.

 

[awfuldan]

I’ve seen a couple brackets today that had us moving up to the 5 line - this is the first one where we’re all the way up to a 4.

If we do make it to the 4-line, that hopefully means first weekend games in Buffalo, which would be awesome for the fanbase.

Yeah I think I would drive the 7+ hours from CT to Buffalo for those games. Try to recapture the 2014 magic up there.

In order to get a 4-seed we might have to win the next four games and/or make a deep run in the BET. This bracket has us above Houston which doesn't seem accurate as of right now, but could be if we keep winning.

 

[AntG168]

Yeah I think I would drive the 7+ hours from CT to Buffalo for those games. Try to recapture the 2014 magic up there.

In order to get a 4-seed we might have to win the next four games and/or make a deep run in the BET. This bracket has us above Houston which doesn't seem accurate as of right now, but could be if we keep winning.

If we win tonight everything changes.

 

[awfuldan]

If we win tonight everything changes.

Agreed, tonight is the big one. Obviously we are locked into the tournament at this point, but whether or not we can beat Villanova is gonna be huge for our seeding.

 

[shizzle787]

A win tonight puts us in good shape for a 4-seed.

 

[Tenspro2002]

A win tonight puts us in good shape for a 4-seed.

I would argue a win tonight is necessary for a 4 seed.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Love the seed. Don't like Auburn in the same part of the bracket, but I guess any #1 is a problem. Might be best not to be a 4 seed.

 

[firstnline]

Win tonight and then win the Big East tourney we could go up to a 3 seed.

 

[Connecticut13]

I would argue a win tonight is necessary for a 4 seed.

It would be very helpful, but definitely not necessary. We could win the remaining three games, and make the conference championship game - and I think we'd have a good chance for a 4. And if we lost today, and won the conference tournament, then I think we're potentially looking at a 3 seed.

Your point is well taken -- this would certainly be a huge win for our resume. But is it absolutely necessary for a 4-seed? No.

 

[awfuldan]

Men's Bracketology: Bid stealers leave out Pitt, Virginia, Seton Hall, Indiana State

Most years the

www.espn.com

Lunardi has us as a 5 playing the winner of Indiana / SDSU in Buffalo. Round 2 would (likely) be our old friend Josh Carlton and the Houston Cougars.

 

[HuskyHoosier]

Love the seed. Don't like Auburn in the same part of the bracket, but I guess any #1 is a problem. Might be best not to be a 4 seed.

I would think auburn would be just as mad seeing us as their 4 seed as we could be seeing them as our 2 seed.

 

[UofCT]

I’ve seen a couple brackets today that had us moving up to the 5 line - this is the first one where we’re all the way up to a 4.

If we do make it to the 4-line, that hopefully means first weekend games in Buffalo, which would be awesome for the fanbase.

A trip to Duffs would be emotional

 

[TerryBoyz]

Has anyone tracked these predictions against the actual results. Generally speaking, are they accurate? I suspect there would need to be some alignment otherwise it would be a waste of time.

 

[shizzle787]

Has anyone tracked these predictions against the actual results. Generally speaking, are they accurate? I suspect there would need to be some alignment otherwise it would be a waste of time.

Bracketmatrix.com

 

[awfuldan]

Lunardi has us as a 4 now!

 

[auror]

Here's our current team sheet. The committee looks at something extremely similar to this.

Predictive metrics at average 17 and results metrics at average 21.
Could use another road win or two, and have two decent chances coming up. I think beating Creighton on the road will solidify us in the 4 range, both for the road win and gives us another Q1 to get us to .500. Notably we're 3-3 in Q1A, too, which is great.

 

[auror]

I put together a really dumb model attempting to predict the committee a bit. It takes the top 30 NET teams and ranks them within the 30 for the average of their predictive metrics, the average of their resume metrics, and the total number of Q1 wins (not winning %, straight total), then averages the ranks. Super dumb, but kinda distills some of the human thought processes. Results look pretty close to both the committee list from last weekend (considering results since) and Lunardi. Model has us as a 4 seed as well.

NET Ranking	School	Result Rank	Pred Rank	Q1 Ranks	ARoAR	Predicted Seed
5	Kansas	1	5	1	1	1
6	Baylor	3	4	1	2	1
2	Arizona	3	2	11	3	1
1	Gonzaga	12	1	3	3	1
11	Purdue	5	8	3	3	2
10	Auburn	2	12	3	6	2
3	Kentucky	7	3	10	7	2
8	Villanova	11	7	3	8	2
7	Texas Tech	10	10	3	9	3
9	Tennessee	9	11	11	10	3
20	Wisconsin	6	22	3	10	3
12	Duke	13	8	11	12	3
22	Alabama	14	21	3	13	4
16	UConn	20	17	11	14	4
28	Providence	8	29	11	14	4
17	LSU	20	18	11	16	4
13	UCLA	14	12	24	17	5
14	Illinois	16	14	20	17	5
15	Texas	23	16	11	17	5
4	Houston	17	6	30	20	5
23	Arkansas	18	19	20	21	6
19	Ohio State	19	20	20	22	6
25	Xavier	25	26	11	23	6
29	Boise State	26	28	11	24	6
24	USC	22	24	24	25	7
18	Iowa	27	15	29	26	7
21	St Mary's	24	23	24	26	7
27	San Francisco	30	27	20	28	7
30	San Diego State	29	25	27	29	8
26	Murray St	27	30	27	30	8

 

[Ricker]

These stats hide the stories behind the games where so many wins are against short handed teams. I'd need a second sheet of paper with what players were in or out in particular matchups. A loss against a short handed team should be looked at as an even worse loss.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Here's our current team sheet. The committee looks at something extremely similar to this.

Predictive metrics at average 17 and results metrics at average 21.
Could use another road win or two, and have two decent chances coming up. I think beating Creighton on the road will solidify us in the 4 range, both for the road win and gives us another Q1 to get us to .500. Notably we're 3-3 in Q1A, too, which is great.

That's interesting that they break down Q1 and Q2 into like a "top half" and "bottom half" of the quadrant.

This suggests that the Q1/Q2 boundary isn't the only thing we need to worry about.

 

[MexicoHusky]

Here's our current team sheet. The committee looks at something extremely similar to this.

Predictive metrics at average 17 and results metrics at average 21.
Could use another road win or two, and have two decent chances coming up. I think beating Creighton on the road will solidify us in the 4 range, both for the road win and gives us another Q1 to get us to .500. Notably we're 3-3 in Q1A, too, which is great.

Geez. I assumed we'd be playing with house money. Certainly if we get past the first game. Starting to look like we may have some pressure on us to actually win a game. Maybe 2.

 

[BGesus4]

It was big that we’ve somewhat solidified ourselves in the 6-seed or better category because if you look at those groups, the 1s and 2s are all tough matchups and the 3s and 4s are all very beatable. So in terms of sweet 16, important to start better than a 7.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Chattanooga was our first opponent in the ‘09 run wasn’t it?

Couldn’t hurt the mojo

 

[tzznandrew]

Chattanooga was our first opponent in the ‘09 run wasn’t it?

Couldn’t hurt the mojo

This ain't your mama's Chattanooga...but, yeah. I like the echo...