Bracketology

[shizzle787]

We won the entire thing as a 7-seed.

That’s a rarity. You want a 3 seed to avoid the 2 until the S16 and the 1 until the Elite 8. Much easier path.

 

[tzznandrew]

While it is fun to project, you guys do realize that these predictions mean zilch and are almost always pretty far off other than predicting the top seeds. Can’t wait for selection Sunday.

Yes, of course I know that this won't be the exact pairing. But they are part of what can and does happen regularly to seeds worse than 4—and often to 4 seeds too.

I don't see how that actually changes my point: these sorts of difficult scenarios happen the worse your seeding, and getting a Top 3 seed is a great way to avoid them.

 

[tzznandrew]

We won the entire thing as a 7-seed.

Yes, we did. And that has happened how regularly? I'm sure Villanova would prefer the odds of getting a 1 seed rather than saying "well, we won it as an 8 seed once, so who cares"

 

[UofCT]

Yes, we did. And that has happened how regularly? I'm sure Villanova would prefer the odds of getting a 1 seed rather than saying "well, we won it as an 8 seed once, so who cares"

It happens very regularly actually. Last year we saw UCLA make the final four as an 11-seed

In 2019 - Auburn made it as a 5-seed
In 2018 - Loyola Chicago made it as an 11-seed
In 2017 - South Carolina made it as a 7-seed
In 2016 - Syracuse made it as a 10-seed
In 2015 - Michigan State made it as a 7-seed.

Every year higher seeds make the final four. You don't need to be a 1, 2, or 3. That is my point. I'd obviously prefer a favorable seed but let's not pretend that is impossible to make the final four if you're not a higher seed. It happens all the time. Legitimately every year.

 

[CL82]

Tried to post to Lunardi’s most recent bracket for its but the BY blocked me. I’ll try to post later

 

[auror]

Playing Iona and Rick Pitino in the 12-5 game would be absolutely terrifying.

 

[businesslawyer]

Folks could carpool. If they were capable of civility.

 

[uconnric]

Playing Iona and Rick Pitino in the 12-5 game would be absolutely terrifying.

Mostly for Iona.

 

[HooperScooper]

Tried to post to Lunardi’s most recent bracket for its but the BY blocked me. I’ll try to post later

The Boneyard crashed for about an hour so it wasn't just what you were trying to do. I guess the Russians aren't UConn fans.

 

[HooperScooper]

While it is fun to project, you guys do realize that these predictions mean zilch and are almost always pretty far off other than predicting the top seeds. Can’t wait for selection Sunday.

These brackets that people do at this point in the season aren't really projecting. They're just saying if the season ended today here's what the bracket would look like. Lots of games left for teams to move up and down.

 

[cap10dingus]

Men's Bracketology: Old guys rule -- Kansas becomes new No. 1 overall seed

Not only are the Jayhawks returning national POY candidate Hunter Dickinson for his COVID year, but Kansas also boasts fifth-year guard Dajuan Harris Jr. along with veteran portal additions Rylan Griffen, AJ Storr, Riley Kugel and Zeke Mayo.

www.espn.com

Lunardi has us as a 5 playing the winner of Indiana / SDSU in Buffalo. Round 2 would (likely) be our old friend Josh Carlton and the Houston Cougars.

Regardless of the way it shakes out the rest of the season I bet they find a way to put us in Houston's region. They love a good story line like the Carlton story.

 

[awfuldan]

Regardless of the way it shakes out the rest of the season I bet they find a way to put us in Houston's region. They love a good story line like the Carlton story.

The Boneyard will crash for a lot longer than an hour if Carlton outplays our frontcourt in that game.

 

[aburks41]

If we are the 5 seed, I want to avoid Iona, Memphis, and UNC as our 12.

Other than that, here's my top 5 ranking of teams that scare me the most:

1) Texas Tech
2) Auburn
3) Gonzaga
4) Kansas
5) Kentucky

But honestly all of those teams are beatable, and we already beat one of them. If Polley and Hawk can provide 3 point shooting, this team can go the distance.

 

[Pgh2Storrs]

Any shot we get Pittsburgh? I'll be there for the weekend cc @Pgh2Storrs. I think Buffalo is a 3 hour drive. Might make the trip if we play there.

We are probably on the 4/5 line right now. Winning out the regular season would likely solidly have us as a 4. My guess is that we need to get to at least Saturday and beat Nova along the way to have a shot at the 3 seed in Pittsburgh.

I’m doing my best to will that into existence as that would be such a fun weekend. The last time we had the opening rounds here, Dan was in his last year at URI so I think it’s time he comes back and tortures Pitt dorks up close.

 

[wheelerdog]

I'm sure we'll see an AAC team (Memphis or SMU) if the seeds work

 

[businesslawyer]

The Boneyard will crash for a lot longer than an hour if Carlton outplays our frontcourt in that game.

I know Muntz is a loyal and true UConn fan, but will his ego allow him to place rooting for UConn ahead of rooting to come on afterwards for a pat oneself on one's back series of "I told you so" comments? Where is the smart money on that one?

 

[Tenspro2002]

Playing Iona and Rick Pitino in the 12-5 game would be absolutely terrifying.

Yeah I would want no part of that.

This is part of why it's so important to get a 4 instead of a 5.

The drop off from a 12 seed -- which is usually a dangerous mid-major or a play-in winner getting hot at the right time -- to a 13, who is usually the winner of a so-so conference, is enormous, maybe more so than any other pair of seed lines.

Edit: elaborating, look at the numbers here. Records in the first round.

#3 seed wins 85%
#4 seed wins 79%
#5 seed wins 67%

Massive jump between #5 and #4.

mcubed.net : Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament : : Records By Seed

mcubed.net

 

[HeGotGame]

Regardless of the way it shakes out the rest of the season I bet they find a way to put us in Houston's region. They love a good story line like the Carlton story.

Without Sasser and Mark Houston is a dream matchup in the 4/5 game.

 

[awfuldan]

I know Muntz is a loyal and true UConn fan, but will his ego allow him to place rooting for UConn instead of rooting to come on afterwards for a pat oneself on one's back series of "I told you so" comments? Where is the smart money on that one?

lol I guess it's possible he can have his cake and eat it too if UConn wins and Carlton drops 20 & 15 on us.

 

[pepband99]

I know Muntz is a loyal and true UConn fan, but will his ego allow him to place rooting for UConn instead of rooting to come on afterwards for a pat oneself on one's back series of "I told you so" comments? Where is the smart money on that one?

hahahahahahaha. 0% chance. He would bump Carlton's recruiting thread out of spite.

 

[awfuldan]

If we are the 5 seed, I want to avoid Iona, Memphis, and UNC as our 12.

Other than that, here's my top 5 ranking of teams that scare me the most:

1) Texas Tech
2) Auburn
3) Gonzaga
4) Kansas
5) Kentucky

But honestly all of those teams are beatable, and we already beat one of them. If Polley and Hawk can provide 3 point shooting, this team can go the distance.

In general I agree with your post but, personally, I would be happy to see UNC. They only have 1 win over the field (#10 seed Michigan) and they've been blown out by several tournament teams already this season. Recently suffered a Quad 4 loss at home to Pitt too.

Would much rather play them than Iona.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Yeah I would want no part of that.

This is part of why it's so important to get a 4 instead of a 5.

The drop off from a 12 seed -- which is usually a dangerous mid-major or a play-in winner getting hot at the right time -- to a 13, who is usually the winner of a so-so conference, is enormous, maybe more so than any other pair of seed lines.

Edit: elaborating, look at the numbers here. Records in the first round.

#3 seed wins 85%
#4 seed wins 79%
#5 seed wins 67%

Massive jump between #5 and #4.

mcubed.net : Men's NCAA Basketball Tournament : : Records By Seed

mcubed.net

Agreed. 5 seed is dangerous. What too many are forgetting about #1 seeds is that a lot of them never get to the second weekend. They are guaranteed to face a tough team in the winner of the 8/9 game.

So as a #4, that's what you're hoping for. #1 is knocked off and #5 is knocked out by a #12. There is no easy seed after the first two days.

 

[businesslawyer]

lol I guess it's possible he can have his cake and eat it too if UConn wins and Carlton drops 20 & 15 on us.

LOL. I almost said I wouldn't mind that one bit, but then imagining his reaction changed my mind.

 

[HeGotGame]

In terms of Lunardi, we are 1 away from a 4 on the seed list