Bracketology

[tzznandrew]

It happens very regularly actually. Last year we saw UCLA make the final four as an 11-seed

In 2019 - Auburn made it as a 5-seed
In 2018 - Loyola Chicago made it as an 11-seed
In 2017 - South Carolina made it as a 7-seed
In 2016 - Syracuse made it as a 10-seed
In 2015 - Michigan State made it as a 7-seed.

Every year higher seeds make the final four. You don't need to be a 1, 2, or 3. That is my point. I'd obviously prefer a favorable seed but let's not pretend that is impossible to make the final four if you're not a higher seed. It happens all the time. Legitimately every year.

You said we won a national championship as a 7 seed, and now you're talking about Final Fours. Those are different.

Further, no one said it is impossible. Just that it is more favorable at higher seeds. Would you rather be a 1 seed or a 7? A 3 or an 11?

The magic is that anything is possible, but I'm trusting on the math.

 

[t8per]

Stop the count!!! I would sign up for this in a heart beat

 

[CL82]

The Boneyard crashed for about an hour so it wasn't just what you were trying to do. I guess the Russians aren't UConn fans.

Yep, I noticed that but the timing is similar but different.

 

[Senor Blue]

Stop the count!!! I would sign up for this in a heart beat

Wow.

That would be about as dream scenario as you get. Texas is having issues and they just had Mitchell leave the team.

The Pac12 isn't that good and Danny has an axe to grind with Oregon from the NCAA with URI a few years back.

Xavier/Loyola/Auburn - beatable or have beaten this year.

Only way that gets better if it was in the Philly bracket - but then obviously no Auburn.

 

[UofCT]

You said we won a national championship as a 7 seed, and now you're talking about Final Fours. Those are different.

Further, no one said it is impossible. Just that it is more favorable at higher seeds. Would you rather be a 1 seed or a 7? A 3 or an 11?

The magic is that anything is possible, but I'm trusting on the math.

I think we are saying the same thing. I agree with you

 

[Tenspro2002]

Agreed. 5 seed is dangerous. What too many are forgetting about #1 seeds is that a lot of them never get to the second weekend. They are guaranteed to face a tough team in the winner of the 8/9 game.

So as a #4, that's what you're hoping for. #1 is knocked off and #5 is knocked out by a #12. There is no easy seed after the first two days.

Actually, #1 seeds make the Sweet 16 about 85% of the time. It's almost unavoidable to encounter one if you're a 4/5.

This is the importance of being a 3 over a 4.

Honestly, if the choice is being a #6 or a #5, I'd almost take the #6.

But a #4 vs. #5, #4 is much better because of the huge difference in first round opponent.

And #3 vs. #4, #3 is much, much better because of avoiding the #1 seed.

 

[navery12]

You said we won a national championship as a 7 seed, and now you're talking about Final Fours. Those are different.

Further, no one said it is impossible. Just that it is more favorable at higher seeds. Would you rather be a 1 seed or a 7? A 3 or an 11?

The magic is that anything is possible, but I'm trusting on the math.

It all started with the original post saying we need to get a 3 seed to make a run, which is dumb. It would definitely help but as long as we end up with a top 5 seed I'm going to be very confident going into the tournament

 

[Jbirdp5]

Regardless of the way it shakes out the rest of the season I bet they find a way to put us in Houston's region. They love a good story line like the Carlton story.

We may end up with Houston, but the committee considering the fact that Carlton transferred from UConn is not on the radar at all for matchups

 

[ucp990411]

I want to be in the west region. 1999, 2011. Pattern here

 

[HooperScooper]

I want to be in the west region. 1999, 2011. Pattern here

2004 also.

Calhoun was a big proponent of being out west, a long way from home and any distractions.

 

[bendm]

At 26-7 with no bad losses and 16 Quad 1 and 2 wins we would be a 2 seed.

winning out, alone, will not get us a 2 seed if the teams ahead of us keep playing well.

most of the 1 and 2 seeds will also be coming off conference tourney chips or at least have made it to their respective conference finals, e.g, gonzana, arizona, auburn, kansas, kentucky, baylor, ucla, purdue, duke, wisconsin, texas tech.

that's 11 teams right there so we need a couple of them to implode in addition to winning out

 

[KembaKek]

Give me that Buffalo regional. So easy to get to from Logan or JFK/LGA, awesome drinking city, an absolute must go if we get lucky and get placed there

i drove there from Hartford for the 2016 NHL Draft. Absolutely worth driving the hours. So many great sights in upstate New York! Awesome city of course.

 

[AdamaNation]

I’ve seen a couple brackets today that had us moving up to the 5 line - this is the first one where we’re all the way up to a 4.

If we do make it to the 4-line, that hopefully means first weekend games in Buffalo, which would be awesome for the fanbase.

Win out the season we’re a 3.

 

[ToolzieFan]

In general I agree with your post but, personally, I would be happy to see UNC. They only have 1 win over the field (#10 seed Michigan) and they've been blown out by several tournament teams already this season. Recently suffered a Quad 4 loss at home to Pitt too.

Would much rather play them than Iona.

I know UNC is down, but that doesn’t mean I’d rather see them over Iona. Iona has a nice win over Alabama. Their next best win is…maybe Liberty on a neutral court? Monmouth on the road? UNC shoots threes well enough to be a minor threat, although they wouldn't exactly worry me, either.

I agree with the point several have made that being a 4 seed is clearly preferable to being a 5 seed. That’s a reasonable expectation at this point.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

I know UNC is down, but that doesn’t mean I’d rather see them over Iona.

Comes down to would I rather see Hubert Davis or Rick Pitino on the sideline. And...well that's easy

 

[Ewekon]

Depending on draw, I think a 6 can be better than the 4/5 line

 

[awfuldan]

I know UNC is down, but that doesn’t mean I’d rather see them over Iona. Iona has a nice win over Alabama. Their next best win is…maybe Liberty on a neutral court? Monmouth on the road? UNC shoots threes well enough to be a minor threat, although they wouldn't exactly worry me, either.

I agree with the point several have made that being a 4 seed is clearly preferable to being a 5 seed. That’s a reasonable expectation at this point.

Yeah, fair enough! Obviously the advanced metrics have UNC clearly above Iona as well (KP 41 vs 87).

 

[Ratso]

regardless of record, winning the BE tourney would put us at what a 2 seed?

 

[Ts5034]

Actually, #1 seeds make the Sweet 16 about 85% of the time. It's almost unavoidable to encounter one if you're a 4/5.

This is the importance of being a 3 over a 4.

Honestly, if the choice is being a #6 or a #5, I'd almost take the #6.

But a #4 vs. #5, #4 is much better because of the huge difference in first round opponent.

And #3 vs. #4, #3 is much, much better because of avoiding the #1 seed.

Agree with all of this. At this point, our best case scenario is a 3 if we win out and win the Big East Tournament. You want to avoid the 1 seed for as long as possible, and being a 3 or a 6 avoids the 1 until the Elite 8.

 

[aburks41]

Unfortunately Texas just won @ WVU by 1 point. We need them to keep losing because most people have them 1 spot ahead of us on the seed line.

 

[Mr. French]

Give me that Buffalo regional. So easy to get to from Logan or JFK/LGA, awesome drinking city, an absolute must go if we get lucky and get placed there

My home - we won it all in 04 and I was there ... we won it all in 14 and I was way too nervous to go, I had tickets and sold them. Watched it all from my apartment 5 minutes away but I don't even regret it.

I'll take that region all day, every day for mojo reasons above even home town reasons.

 

[Ewekon]

Agree with all of this. At this point, our best case scenario is a 3 if we win out and win the Big East Tournament. You want to avoid the 1 seed for as long as possible, and being a 3 or a 6 avoids the 1 until the Elite 8.

Depending on draw...as I said previously.. agree with you ....avoids the region's 1 until elite 8

Agree with all of this. At this point, our best case scenario is a 3 if we win out and win the Big East Tournament. You want to avoid the 1 seed for as long as possible, and being a 3 or a 6 avoids the 1 until the Elite 8.

Exactly

 

[UConNick]

Not a great day for us with Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas, UCLA, and Wisconsin (all teams we’re competing directly against or within striking distance of passing on the s-curve) winning. This after Ohio State topping Illinois on Thursday, too.

Just got to keep winning our games and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Not a great day for us with Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas, UCLA, and Wisconsin (all teams we’re competing directly against or within striking distance of passing on the s-curve) winning. This after Ohio State topping Illinois on Thursday, too.

Just got to keep winning our games and let the chips fall where they may.

If we just keep winning we will be a 4 seed I think

Having that second top 10 win against Nova cemented it, as long as we win out and don’t exit early from the BET

 

[Tenspro2002]

Not a great day for us with Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas, UCLA, and Wisconsin (all teams we’re competing directly against or within striking distance of passing on the s-curve) winning. This after Ohio State topping Illinois on Thursday, too.

Just got to keep winning our games and let the chips fall where they may.

Yup, big wins for a lot of other teams in the 15-20 range. Not automatic that just because we're UConn we get up into the 16-18 range and a #4 seed.

Also, WVU looking like a bad loss. They're 3-12 in the Big 12 and under .500 overall. Yikes.

We're really going to have to make a case down the stretch here for a top seed. I think 4-1 is a minimum to get a #4 seed.