Bracketology | Page 7 | The Boneyard

Bracketology

My personal bracketology for 3/6/22:
AQs bold
First four italics
1. Baylor, Auburn, Arizona, Gonzaga
2. Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue, Tennessee
3. Villanova, UCLA, St. Mary's, Texas Tech
4. Providence, Illinois, Wisconsin, Duke
5. UConn, San Diego State, Houston, Texas
6. LSU, Arkansas, Ohio State, Iowa
7. Seton Hall, TCU, Marquette, Iowa State
8. USC, Colorado State, Murray State, Alabama
9. Michigan State, Creighton, Davidson, Loyola
10. Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Xavier, Wyoming
11. Memphis, VCU, Michigan, Boise State
12. San Francisco, North Texas, Indiana, UNC, BYU, Iona
13. SDSU, NMSU, Toledo, Chattanooga
14. Vermont, Towson, Princeton, LBSU
15. Colgate, Cleveland State, Montana State, Jacksonville
16. Norfolk State, Longwood, Nicholls State, Bryant, App State, Alcorn State

First seven out:
Oregon
Colorado
Florida
VaTech
SMU
Miami
Rutgers

Multi-bid leagues:
B1G: 8
Big East: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 6
ACC: 4
MW: 4
WCC: 4
Pac-12: 3
A-10: 2
AAC: 2
 
Loyola wins so the field expands by one as there will be no bid stealer in the Missouri Valley.
 
www.espn.com

Men's Bracketology: What the SEC's bloated bubble means for the overall field

The conference could finish with anywhere from nine to 12 bids with Texas, Oklahoma and Auburn in question.
www.espn.com

Lunardi now has us as a 5 seed vs the Mean Green of North Texas (KenPom 48, beat Purdue in the first round last year). Playing in Buffalo. Arkansas would be the next round and Gonzaga is the 1 seed.

Would be really nice to win some BET games and get out of the 5-seed.
 
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Arkansas scares me with how hot they’ve been. Their almost comeback at Tennessee on Saturday was about the most impressive you could look in a second half and still lose; Notae is Kemba/Bazz-esque. And you know Muss would have his team ready. I’d bet they get to at least the SEC final and make their way to the 3 line, perhaps at the expense of a fading TTU or even PC should they have an unimpressive BET.
 
UConNick said:
Arkansas scares me with how hot they’ve been. Their almost comeback at Tennessee on Saturday was about the most impressive you could look in a second half and still lose; Notae is Kemba/Bazz-esque. And you know Muss would have his team ready. I’d bet they get to at least the SEC final and make their way to the 3 line, perhaps at the expense of a fading TTU or even PC should they have an unimpressive BET.
Expand ...
Yeah, I agree. Not a team I want to face in the second round, and I would expect them to have a good shot at moving up to a 3-seed. One of the hottest teams in the country.
 
The last time we fell on the 4 line was 2008, and the last time we were a 5 was 2003. We made the Sweet 16 in 2003, and lost in the first round in 2008, mainly because AJ tore his ACL in that game vs San Diego. The NCAA Tournament is about luck and matchups, and I think the two years I just mentioned proved that. In 2003, If we were playing Texas anywhere outside the state of Texas, we win that game. If AJ price doesnt get hurt, that 2008 team was going to make a run to at least the Sweet 16.
 
shizzle787 said:
My personal bracketology for 3/6/22:
AQs bold
First four italics
1. Baylor, Auburn, Arizona, Gonzaga
2. Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue, Tennessee
3. Villanova, UCLA, St. Mary's, Texas Tech
4. Providence, Illinois, Wisconsin, Duke
5. UConn, San Diego State, Houston, Texas
6. LSU, Arkansas, Ohio State, Iowa
7. Seton Hall, TCU, Marquette, Iowa State
8. USC, Colorado State, Murray State, Alabama
9. Michigan State, Creighton, Davidson, Loyola
10. Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Xavier, Wyoming
11. Memphis, VCU, Michigan, Boise State
12. San Francisco, North Texas, Indiana, UNC, BYU, Iona
13. SDSU, NMSU, Toledo, Chattanooga
14. Vermont, Towson, Princeton, LBSU
15. Colgate, Cleveland State, Montana State, Jacksonville
16. Norfolk State, Longwood, Nicholls State, Bryant, App State, Alcorn State

First seven out:
Oregon
Colorado
Florida
VaTech
SMU
Miami
Rutgers

Multi-bid leagues:
B1G: 8
Big East: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 6
ACC: 4
MW: 4
WCC: 4
Pac-12: 3
A-10: 2
AAC: 2
Expand ...
I love the energy of putting Duke at a 4
 
awfuldan said:
Yeah, I agree. Not a team I want to face in the second round, and I would expect them to have a good shot at moving up to a 3-seed. One of the hottest teams in the country.
Expand ...
100% they are one of the teams I’d like to avoid. Tough, athletic, skilled.
 
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PNolanFan said:
I love the energy of putting Duke at a 4
Expand ...
I wasn’t even completely hating; they have a weak resume. They only played three high-level OOC opponents and the ACC is very weak. They are going to be punished for having a Q3 loss (only one other top 15 team has one) and only being 5-3 in Q2.
 
shizzle787 said:
My personal bracketology for 3/6/22:
AQs bold
First four italics
1. Baylor, Auburn, Arizona, Gonzaga
2. Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue, Tennessee
3. Villanova, UCLA, St. Mary's, Texas Tech
4. Providence, Illinois, Wisconsin, Duke
5. UConn, San Diego State, Houston, Texas
6. LSU, Arkansas, Ohio State, Iowa
7. Seton Hall, TCU, Marquette, Iowa State
8. USC, Colorado State, Murray State, Alabama
9. Michigan State, Creighton, Davidson, Loyola
10. Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Xavier, Wyoming
11. Memphis, VCU, Michigan, Boise State
12. San Francisco, North Texas, Indiana, UNC, BYU, Iona
13. SDSU, NMSU, Toledo, Chattanooga
14. Vermont, Towson, Princeton, LBSU
15. Colgate, Cleveland State, Montana State, Jacksonville
16. Norfolk State, Longwood, Nicholls State, Bryant, App State, Alcorn State

First seven out:
Oregon
Colorado
Florida
VaTech
SMU
Miami
Rutgers

Multi-bid leagues:
B1G: 8
Big East: 7
SEC: 6
Big 12: 6
ACC: 4
MW: 4
WCC: 4
Pac-12: 3
A-10: 2
AAC: 2
Expand ...
Duke a 4 and Nova a 3? Duke will be 2 more likely.
 
jibsey said:
Duke a 4 and Nova a 3? Duke will be 2 more likely.
Expand ...
I'm not sure about that. Duke may end up as a three (especially if they win the ACC tournament) but at the moment they are clearly a four.

I personally would love for us to be a five in the same region where Duke is a four. K has one more good cry in him and I want us to make it happen.
 
FfldCntyFan said:
I'm not sure about that. Duke may end up as a three (especially if they win the ACC tournament) but at the moment they are clearly a four.

I personally would love for us to be a five in the same region where Duke is a four. K has one more good cry in him and I want us to make it happen.
Expand ...
Of course.
 
Teams to keep an eye on this week in terms of quadrants

Seton Hall - 32 NET, top 30 makes our home win Q1 but hopefully doesn't happen since that's our first matchup

PC 26 / Xavier 36 / Marquette 38 are all unlikely to flip over the 30 line and change anything

VCU 51 - top 50 would be a Q1 win

St John's 72 - top 75 keeps our wins as Q1/Q2 instead of Q2/Q3

West Virginia 79 - top 75 would make it a Q1 loss

Butler 129 - top 135 keeps the road win as Q2
 
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We'd like Seton Hall to beat Georgetown by like 100.

Would be very nice for VCU to win a couple games.

St. John's probably needs to win 1 for us.

Butler just can't lose by 15+.
 
auror said:
We'd like Seton Hall to beat Georgetown by like 100.

Would be very nice for VCU to win a couple games.

St. John's probably needs to win 1 for us.

Butler just can't lose by 15+.
Expand ...
The problem I see is that UConn-Seton Hall is a toss up, and based on how well Seton Hall is playing they likely have an advantage, especially is Hawkins is out for UConn. UConn Georgetown goes to UConn.
 
storrsroars said:
Isn't Providence the BE AQ?
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BET winner gets the AQ. It could be PC. If they win it, they may be as high as a #2. Lots can still change.

Looking at the 12's in Shizzle's bracket, none of those worry me really.
 
navery12 said:
Teams to keep an eye on this week in terms of quadrants

Seton Hall - 32 NET, top 30 makes our home win Q1 but hopefully doesn't happen since that's our first matchup

PC 26 / Xavier 36 / Marquette 38 are all unlikely to flip over the 30 line and change anything

VCU 51 - top 50 would be a Q1 win

St John's 72 - top 75 keeps our wins as Q1/Q2 instead of Q2/Q3

West Virginia 79 - top 75 would make it a Q1 loss

Butler 129 - top 135 keeps the road win as Q2
Expand ...
No changes to the top BE teams like expected. PC still playing at 26 but they should be safely in the top 30

VCU plays Richmond tonight at 8:30, still at 51 so a win should move them up into the top 50 (Q1)

St John's up to 66, safely in Q1/Q2 win territory

WVU sucks, will stay as a Q2 loss

Butler up to 120, safely keeps the road win as Q2
 
Useful site for seeing all the different metrics on the actual committee team sheets in one place:

Verifying Browser...

barttorvik.com

Right now we're 19th in Resume avg, 18th in Predictive avg, and 12th in raw Q1+Q2 wins. 2 more wins gets us into the top 10 for Q1+Q2 wins, but our other metrics likely will still be in the 4 seed range.
 
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