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Bracketology

awfuldan

awfuldan

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This is far and away the most favorable projected bracket I've seen yet for the good guys. #4 seed playing KenPom 79 Chatanooga in round one. Round 2 would be USC (just one Mobley this time around) or Miami (hit or miss bubble team from the softest iteration of the ACC in years). Our #1 seed? The only one that we know for a fact our team can beat on a good day.

Would sign up for this in a heartbeat.
 
love this bracket. 6th year grad transfer charlie moore is the point guard for miami. he is still having nightmares about uconn from his stint on depaul last year.
 
I’ve seen a couple brackets today that had us moving up to the 5 line - this is the first one where we’re all the way up to a 4.

If we do make it to the 4-line, that hopefully means first weekend games in Buffalo, which would be awesome for the fanbase.
 
UConNick said:
I’ve seen a couple brackets today that had us moving up to the 5 line - this is the first one where we’re all the way up to a 4.

If we do make it to the 4-line, that hopefully means first weekend games in Buffalo, which would be awesome for the fanbase.
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Yeah I think I would drive the 7+ hours from CT to Buffalo for those games. Try to recapture the 2014 magic up there.

In order to get a 4-seed we might have to win the next four games and/or make a deep run in the BET. This bracket has us above Houston which doesn't seem accurate as of right now, but could be if we keep winning.
 
awfuldan said:
Yeah I think I would drive the 7+ hours from CT to Buffalo for those games. Try to recapture the 2014 magic up there.

In order to get a 4-seed we might have to win the next four games and/or make a deep run in the BET. This bracket has us above Houston which doesn't seem accurate as of right now, but could be if we keep winning.
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If we win tonight everything changes.
 
AntG168 said:
If we win tonight everything changes.
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Agreed, tonight is the big one. Obviously we are locked into the tournament at this point, but whether or not we can beat Villanova is gonna be huge for our seeding.
 
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Love the seed. Don't like Auburn in the same part of the bracket, but I guess any #1 is a problem. Might be best not to be a 4 seed.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
I would argue a win tonight is necessary for a 4 seed.
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It would be very helpful, but definitely not necessary. We could win the remaining three games, and make the conference championship game - and I think we'd have a good chance for a 4. And if we lost today, and won the conference tournament, then I think we're potentially looking at a 3 seed.

Your point is well taken -- this would certainly be a huge win for our resume. But is it absolutely necessary for a 4-seed? No.
 
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HuskyHawk said:
Love the seed. Don't like Auburn in the same part of the bracket, but I guess any #1 is a problem. Might be best not to be a 4 seed.
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I would think auburn would be just as mad seeing us as their 4 seed as we could be seeing them as our 2 seed.
 
UConNick said:
I’ve seen a couple brackets today that had us moving up to the 5 line - this is the first one where we’re all the way up to a 4.

If we do make it to the 4-line, that hopefully means first weekend games in Buffalo, which would be awesome for the fanbase.
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A trip to Duffs would be emotional
 
Has anyone tracked these predictions against the actual results. Generally speaking, are they accurate? I suspect there would need to be some alignment otherwise it would be a waste of time.
 
TerryBoyz said:
Has anyone tracked these predictions against the actual results. Generally speaking, are they accurate? I suspect there would need to be some alignment otherwise it would be a waste of time.
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Bracketmatrix.com
 
Here's our current team sheet. The committee looks at something extremely similar to this.
ct-team-sheet.png


Predictive metrics at average 17 and results metrics at average 21.
Could use another road win or two, and have two decent chances coming up. I think beating Creighton on the road will solidify us in the 4 range, both for the road win and gives us another Q1 to get us to .500. Notably we're 3-3 in Q1A, too, which is great.
 
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I put together a really dumb model attempting to predict the committee a bit. It takes the top 30 NET teams and ranks them within the 30 for the average of their predictive metrics, the average of their resume metrics, and the total number of Q1 wins (not winning %, straight total), then averages the ranks. Super dumb, but kinda distills some of the human thought processes. Results look pretty close to both the committee list from last weekend (considering results since) and Lunardi. Model has us as a 4 seed as well.

NET RankingSchoolResult RankPred RankQ1 RanksARoARPredicted Seed
5Kansas15111
6Baylor34121
2Arizona321131
1Gonzaga121331
11Purdue58332
10Auburn212362
3Kentucky731072
8Villanova117382
7Texas Tech1010393
9Tennessee91111103
20Wisconsin6223103
12Duke13811123
22Alabama14213134
16UConn201711144
28Providence82911144
17LSU201811164
13UCLA141224175
14Illinois161420175
15Texas231611175
4Houston17630205
23Arkansas181920216
19Ohio State192020226
25Xavier252611236
29Boise State262811246
24USC222424257
18Iowa271529267
21St Mary's242324267
27San Francisco302720287
30San Diego State292527298
26Murray St273027308
 
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These stats hide the stories behind the games where so many wins are against short handed teams. I'd need a second sheet of paper with what players were in or out in particular matchups. A loss against a short handed team should be looked at as an even worse loss.
 
auror said:
Here's our current team sheet. The committee looks at something extremely similar to this.
ct-team-sheet.png


Predictive metrics at average 17 and results metrics at average 21.
Could use another road win or two, and have two decent chances coming up. I think beating Creighton on the road will solidify us in the 4 range, both for the road win and gives us another Q1 to get us to .500. Notably we're 3-3 in Q1A, too, which is great.
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That's interesting that they break down Q1 and Q2 into like a "top half" and "bottom half" of the quadrant.

This suggests that the Q1/Q2 boundary isn't the only thing we need to worry about.
 
auror said:
Here's our current team sheet. The committee looks at something extremely similar to this.
ct-team-sheet.png


Predictive metrics at average 17 and results metrics at average 21.
Could use another road win or two, and have two decent chances coming up. I think beating Creighton on the road will solidify us in the 4 range, both for the road win and gives us another Q1 to get us to .500. Notably we're 3-3 in Q1A, too, which is great.
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Geez. I assumed we'd be playing with house money. Certainly if we get past the first game. Starting to look like we may have some pressure on us to actually win a game. Maybe 2.
 
It was big that we’ve somewhat solidified ourselves in the 6-seed or better category because if you look at those groups, the 1s and 2s are all tough matchups and the 3s and 4s are all very beatable. So in terms of sweet 16, important to start better than a 7.
 
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Bracket matrix is looking much better as of todays update. No one has us lower than a 6 anymore and lots of 4s and 5s. On average we are a 5 with only Texas ahead of us for the next 4.
 
If Chattanooga gets the auto bid I would want to no part of that team on the #13 line.

I think with De Sousa returning last night it gives the Moc's that additional big to go along with arguably one of the top 3 mid-major back courts in the country.

It will be interesting to see if UTC gets in what damage they can do.
 
BLUEDOGHOUSE said:
If Chattanooga gets the auto bid I would want to no part of that team on the #13 line.

I think with De Sousa returning last night it gives the Moc's that additional big to go along with arguably one of the top 3 mid-major back courts in the country.

It will be interesting to see if UTC gets in what damage they can do.
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www.cbssports.com

2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions - Bracketology - College Basketball

CBS Sports is helping you get ready for March Madness with the latest news, picks, and predictions for the 2024 NCAA Basketball Tournament Bracket.
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com

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