bballnut90
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Who else would you put at 2?
2023 SC Gamecocks Basketball, Part II (merged)
- Thread starter JDuro
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Take your choice , UConn, Indiana, or Stanford.
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How many Stanford games have you guys watched? I've watched every game of their season and question if they are top 7 team, let alone number 2 and any threat to South Carolina. They have regressed as the season went on imo.
bballnut90
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Stanford just lost 2 of 3 in the final week, needed double OT vs Colorado and has 5 losses.
Indiana just lost 2 of 3 in the final week (including 1 head to head vs Iowa), and just watched Iowa win the Big Ten Tournament
UCONN lost at home to an unranked Quad 2 team the same day Iowa lost by 28 to Maryland. Not sure that's any better. Since that game the only team of note who they've beat is Villanova, where Iowa has beat Indiana, Maryland, and Ohio State.
There isn't a great option at #2 but Iowa is the right pick at this time IMO considering how heavily rankings are influenced by a team's recent performance. After watching the B1G tournament and Iowa's home win over Indiana, it's a hard sell to say that anyone aside from SC is playing better basketball than Iowa right now.
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The human polls love Iowa. The computers hate them by comparison. When you blend humans and computers, they are a mod second seed team. Sure they’ve had a great week , but seeding is based on a whole season, not a hot week.
Plus, they have no defense.
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So, you’re recommending SkyNet take over seeding?
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Only if it can drink beer and eat popcorn and play a modicum of defense around the trash an at the office
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Lets put this the UConn thought to test: Starting 5 Comparison
PG Fletcher/Johnson vs Muhl -advantage Scar
SG Cooke vs Fudd -push
C Boston vs Dhorka -advantage Scar
PF Saxon vs Edwards -advantage Uconn
SF/G Beale vs "Lou"-push
6th Woman : Cardoso vs Caroline - advantage Scar
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This list is a little off. Let me fix it for you.
PG - push
SG - advantage UConn
C - advantage SCar
PF - advantage UConn
SF/G - push
6th woman - advantage SCar.
I’d probably add 7th woman: Amihere vs Griffin - push
Of course, I’m assuming Azzi rounds into form by the finals. In that case, the comparison to Zia isn’t even close. If she doesn’t round into form, we may not make it that far. If it’s the Azzi who torched Texas, NC St, Duke and Iowa we get one result, if not we get another.
In other words, it looks like it could be an excellent game. I hope we get to see it.
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If Fudd is a starter, wouldn't it be more likely that Griffin would be the 6th man coming off the bench instead of Ducharme? My reasoning is that her athleticism would match up better with SC.
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Fudd doesn't start, she's the 6th man, not Caroline and Lou is a SG not a small forward who wouldn't match up with Beale.
A more accurate comparison would be:
PG: Fletcher/Johnson vs Muhl - Push
SG: Cook Vs Lou/Fudd - Clear advantage UConn
Sg/G: Beale vs Griffin/Caroline - Push
PF: Saxon vs Edwards - Uconn
C: Boston/Cardosa vs Dorka : Clear advantage South Carolina
Bench: Cardosa, Johnson, Amihere vs Fudd and Ducharme - I would say advantage South Carolina but significantly smaller than the last match up.
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Good stuff. Who is saying Uconn and SCar fans can not have Civil discourse?
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bballnut90
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More realistically the matchup is probably going to be Cardoso vs. Edwards (I think that's a draw) since Kamila will get most of the minutes alongside Boston. Saxton likely wont get more than 10 minutes, Cardoso will get the bulk of the minutes.
I think the lineup matches are fun but miss a lot of context and there's still so much unknown. For example, Fudd is back but has been a shell of herself so far. Is she going to return to AA form in 2-3 weeks or is she going to be a B version of herself like Bueckers was for most of last year's postseason (aside from the NC State game)? Same with Ducharme.
Also, Zia Cooke is such a wild card for SC. She could outplay her counterpart, or get massively outplayed like she was last matchup. I think the only way UCONN or anyone else competes with SC is if they catch her on a cold shooting night and can bait her into 12-15 shots. It worked well for UCONN their last match up (she shot 2-15), but her offensive production just varies game by game.
And the bench can't be understated. Even if UCONN has players back, it's big advantage for SC primarily due to coaching style and post depth. Geno has never been one to use more than 6-7 players even with a deeper lineup. Patterson/Deberry aren't going to get a significant minutes unless there's significant foul trouble, where SC has Amihere/Saxton who will get minutes. SC can rest their main posts so they stay fresh without a ton of drop off and they just wear you down. We saw that in the last matchup and we've seen it from SC's opponents all year. I think it's still a pretty clear cut edge to SC overall but UCONN (and several other teams) are capable of pulling off an upset if they play well and have a few other factors go their way.
I think the lineup matches are fun but miss a lot of context and there's still so much unknown. For example, Fudd is back but has been a shell of herself so far. Is she going to return to AA form in 2-3 weeks or is she going to be a B version of herself like Bueckers was for most of last year's postseason (aside from the NC State game)? Same with Ducharme.
Also, Zia Cooke is such a wild card for SC. She could outplay her counterpart, or get massively outplayed like she was last matchup. I think the only way UCONN or anyone else competes with SC is if they catch her on a cold shooting night and can bait her into 12-15 shots. It worked well for UCONN their last match up (she shot 2-15), but her offensive production just varies game by game.
And the bench can't be understated. Even if UCONN has players back, it's big advantage for SC primarily due to coaching style and post depth. Geno has never been one to use more than 6-7 players even with a deeper lineup. Patterson/Deberry aren't going to get a significant minutes unless there's significant foul trouble, where SC has Amihere/Saxton who will get minutes. SC can rest their main posts so they stay fresh without a ton of drop off and they just wear you down. We saw that in the last matchup and we've seen it from SC's opponents all year. I think it's still a pretty clear cut edge to SC overall but UCONN (and several other teams) are capable of pulling off an upset if they play well and have a few other factors go their way.
Iowa’s defense is a far cry from South Carolina, Stanford, or Indiana’s, but I think the malignment of their D is somewhat overblown. It’s not elite but the problem with a team that scores in the high 80s like Iowa is you’re probably not going to hold them much below 70. That can be a problem for some of the higher-ranked teams.
Astute observation, always enjoy your posts. I think you’re spot on about Cooke. One of my main concerns for SC’s chances at a repeat is Cooke’s shooting inconsistencies. The problem is she never stops at 1-6 or 3-9; she usually keeps on shooting. I get that shooting guards have to be aggressive and that Dawn has told her to keep firing but it’s those 4-17 kind of nights that can do South Carolina in if Boston and Cardoso don’t have monster games.
A team like Uconn in 2016 with Stewie, Tuck, KLS, Nurse, Jefferson, Collier, and Williams. There isn't anyone like that in college today.
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No one, at least no sane person, thinks SC isn’t a prohibitive favorite in any matchup this year. But we can imagine how an upset could happen. The position comparisons are really about other teams not about SCar. Does UConn matchup better than Stanford or or Va Tech or Indiana or Iowa? I think the difference is clear: only Stanford matches up nearly as well as we do with SCar.
If Betts could play more than 10 Mins, Brink would have a significant advantage over Saxton or Amihere. Then Dawn would have to play Cardoso next to Boston, which is a formidable configuration. But it would be a slower team, and Jones and Jump and Demetre would be unleashed. Unfortunately, Betts isn’t ready for that level of competition, which means Dawn can keep the quicker team on the floor and choke off Stanford’s backcourt.
If Betts could play more than 10 Mins, Brink would have a significant advantage over Saxton or Amihere. Then Dawn would have to play Cardoso next to Boston, which is a formidable configuration. But it would be a slower team, and Jones and Jump and Demetre would be unleashed. Unfortunately, Betts isn’t ready for that level of competition, which means Dawn can keep the quicker team on the floor and choke off Stanford’s backcourt.
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South Carolina only played 8 players more than four minutes in the last match up. UConn would play 7 if they played again (and everyone remained healthy) both players coming off the bench have potential for explosive offensive performances. I don’t think the bench advantage is as dramatic as before. Azzi Fudd is probably the best sixth man in the country now.
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I think Betts is much improved in the last few weeks. If they were to play South Carolina again I’d imagine she’d get 15-20 minutes. Her, Brink and Fran are their main frontcourt rotation.
She doesn’t match up well with smaller teams with bigs with perimeter shooting kike UCLA or Utah but South Carolina doesn’t have bigs that bring you outside.
One of the reasons South Carolina played only eight players was that it was a home game for Uconn. South Carolina will play at least 10 players in any neutral site game as they have done all year long. Their bench is averaging 42 pts a game which is a massively over what Uconn will put out their from their bench. Even with that being said, they wore Uconn down at home and lets be serious, Uconn went foul heavy late in the game and South Carolina missed alot of those free throws to allow that game to get back to four points. Problem is that game seemed to have ignited Cardosa defensively and offensively and the front court problems will be exacerbated if they play again. It will be an interesting game. Also one last thing. Given how Raven Johnson played Muhl head to head on the road, and with Fletcher also to play to keep the point guard postion fresh, in no way is that comparison a push.
bballnut90
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Fudd will get starter minutes so I'm not sure I'd characterize her as a bench player when analyzing this matchup, similar to how I wouldn't characterize Cardoso as a bench player since she'll get more minutes than the player who starts.
Even with Ducharme/Fudd back, I still predict Geno plays his core 5 heavy minutes. Historically he runs a tight ship in big games, and I'd expect him to do the same if he matches up with SC again. We've already seen this vs Villanova, where he had 5 players playing 32+ minutes, with Aubrey Griffin's playing time being greatly reduced and Ducharme also playing limited minutes.
Instead of it being one team's bench vs. the other, I think where the bench players come into play is if starters get into foul trouble (which could definitely happen on either side), or if SC's post depth wears out UCONN's bigs like they did last game. SC is more a slow burn team where they gradually wear you out over the course of the game with their size and depth inside, which we saw in the first matchup. I think that could be a difference maker in the game down the stretch.
bballnut90
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The first statement isn't true. South Carolina in their last game only played 7 vs. Tennessee. Dawn isn't going to roll out a 10-12 player lineup vs. UCONN despite having the depth to do so.
Johnson outplayed Muhl the first time but that was also Johnson's best game of her career. Looking at the rest of the season, Muhl has been a more consistent performer. Their numbers are very similar averaged across 40 minutes per game and are good defenders. Both fill a similar role on their team, though Muhl has no backup while Johnson has Fletcher who does a solid job sharing duties. I'd say it's definitely a wash, or at most a slight lean in either direction.
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I don't get what being an away game has to do with playing only 8, but whatever. As for the rest, Johnson did play well against Muhl, but not as well as you seem to think. She scored 14 on 4-12 shooting, while Nika scored 11 on 4-6 shooting. So Raven did better than Zia, but that's not exactly shutting Nika down. On the plus side, she got 7 assists and held Nika to 4, though that may have had more to do with the rest of the team's defense. I mean, SCar managed to hold UConn to 52% FG and 33% on 3s while shooting 39% FG and 20% on 3s.
As for going "foul heavy," they had roughly similar fouls numbers. But the fact is Nika and Lou fouled out in the closing minutes. Why? Could it have had something to do with a preposterous missed call on an inbounds play? A crucial possession lost when we were down by 3? Without that, I don't think either one of them has to commit any fouls at that point in the game.
But this is old news. The fact is UConn lost and was overmatched for a couple of key stretches in the game. It was a hard fought win and SCar earned it.
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Cardosa was a bit of a mess defensively. Edwards scored 26 points , not sure how it would have ignited her defensively?
Between Ducharme and Fudd, while they might not give 42 points combined, expecting around 30ish points combined is unreasonable. That’s not a massive difference imo at least.
Statistically, Nika and Johnson had pretty similar games. With the addition of Fudd to give Nika a breather I’d consider the point guard position a push.
Sounds like you watch a different game than I Did if you saw a worn down UConn team at the end. I remember a technical foul by Geno being the reason South Carolina lead grew to 10 after it being 4-6 most of the second half. And then we all remember the out of bounds hand off. But it’s neither here more there. Unlikely we play again anyways to find out how a healthy UConn would match up against South Carolina.
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Riley Stack was a one time recruit for SC but I can see why both parties mutually parted ways. She’s not physical enough and seemed to shy away from the matchup with Edwards, while Joyce relished the opportunity. She has a very nice shooting touch but she’s missing an aggressive mentality big time! Good luck to her at Coastal.
Yes Obviously. Uconn made up a deficit toward the end by fouling which was the only reason the fouls evened out. For what you thought Cardoza was on the defensive end, she more than made up for on the offensive end and rebounding. Also many Carolina fans found the officiating to be questionable in moments when Carolina was moving toward separating from the 6-8 pt range to double digits. I would love for Carolina to play a 'healthy" Uconn on a neutral court. The game was not one of our rare below par performances offensively, so I would like to see how the game turns out when we are on offensively, which we have been most of the year, (6th in the country, I believe). I guess it is all in the eye of the beholder
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Seriously. Iowa is absurd.
6 losses, a recent one by 30, and a defense outside the top 100?
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