To back up your contention, look at how UConn's recruiting took off from the year before (posted elsewhere). We got Tina Charles in 2006, then Maya in 2007 (the year of the 37 page report). Those were the first trickles of a stream that became a mighty recruiting river. This has been, if I'm not mistaken, Coach Geno's greatest inflow of talent in his entire 31-year career:
The next year Tiffany Hayes. The next year, Kelly Faris.
Then:
Stephanie Dolson and Bria Hartley- fall 2010
Kaleena Mosquera-Lewis and Kia Stokes- 2011
Breanna Stewart, Moriah Jefferson, and Morgan Tuck- 2012
Saniya Chong (named by one publication player of the year)- 2013
Kia Nurse and Gabby Williams- 2014
Napheesa Collier and Katie Lou Samuelson- 2015
Crystal Dangerfield- 2016
Megan Walker- 2017
Charli Collier- 2018
And Tennessee went down the tubes during that time. And while Connecticut was beginning their biggest recruiting push, Notre Dame was snarfing up the ones that UConn didn't get.
Tennessee's recruiting didn't go down the tubes after the Moore situation. Since 2007, look at the top 10 kids they've landed:
2007-Bjorklund and Baugh both top 5. Cain #12.
2008-Johnson, Gray and Stricklen top 10. Manning/Brewer top 20.
2009-Spani top 15 recruit
2010-Simmons in the 20s
2011-Massengale and Burdick top 5
2012-Graves top 5
2013-Russell and DeShields top 3, Tucker committed and was top 10
2014-Nared was top 10
2015-Cooper was ranked top 10 by most publications, #12 by Hoopgurlz IIRC
2016-zilch
2017-Hayes, Westbrook both are top 10. Davis is #12.
The problem hasn't been recruiting. Developing the recruits has been another situation, and the more time goes on, the more it looks like the blame is squarely on Holly.
The 2007 class was under Pat the whole time. Baugh and Cain were riddled with injuries--although it's worth noting that Cain looked quite good when healthy in 2010. Bjorklund was badly overrated coming out of HS.
2008 class-Stricklen/Johnson both had very good careers at UT and went top 3 or 4 in the 2012 draft. Gray had a horrible illness and had to transfer out because Tennessee wouldn't let her play with her condition. Brewer looked good for a season, Manning was a decent role player.
The 2007 and 2008 kids had some good seasons at Tennessee and the 2007 kids (Baugh/Cain) likely would've developed into better players if they didn't have so many injury problems. Tennessee had great teams in 2010 and 2011 but lost to Griner/Diggins in the tournament.
Holly essentially took the reigns of the program over in 2012. This is where player development and win/loss record has really halted. Burdick, Massengale, Graves, DeShields and Russell were all top 5 kids. None have lived up to it. Simmons and Graves were oozing with potential as freshmen and graduated with no skill development. Both were arguably better players as freshmen.
The product on the court has consistently declined. In the 5 years prior to 2012, Tennessee had records of:
34-3, 32-3, 22-11, 36-2, 34-3.
When Holly took the reigns in 2011-12, her teams have produced records of:
27-9, 27-8, 29-6, 30-6, 22-14. You'd have to go back to the 80s to find two consecutive years when Tennessee had 6 or more losses. Holly's had 5 straight.
Holly is the reason why this program is steadily declining. She has proven that she can recruit, but she can't put together a good product on the court. Put her roster with most top 25 coaches in America and they'll have Tennessee a staple in the top 5.
She has proven that she can get her teams to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8, but aside from the 2 good wins last year, Tennessee hasn't won an NCAA tournament game against a top 4 seeded team since 2011. Tennessee got lucky matchups in the Sweet 16 in 2012, 2013 and 2015 facing teams seeded 6th or lower. They were blown out by Maryland in 2014, although Maryland was very underrated.
When she can lead Tennessee to an upset of a team like Baylor or Notre Dame, then I'll have some hope for the program. Otherwise, it'll be a consistent descent as long as she's at the helm, even with a top class coming in yet again.