The Official Bracketology thread, part II (beginning Mar 7)

[Rudy1927]

How do you make the SEC champ a #7 seed? Especially with a projected 9 teams getting in the field. Have to be much higher.

 

[Plebe]

How do you make the SEC champ a #7 seed? Especially with a projected 9 teams getting in the field. Have to be much higher.

Seeding is based on the entire season's body of work, not just 3 games.

West Virginia did something very similar in 2017. Was on the bubble going into the Big 12 tournament, then tore through everyone including Baylor and Texas. Got a #6 seed.

 

[AgStatesman]

Holy crap! Yesterday I flippantly posted that I'd like to see UConn play Iowa, NC St, South Carolina, and Stanford on the way to hoisting the trophy. Today's latest ESPN bracketology has that exact possibility. Iowa in the Sweet 16, NC State in the Elite 8, South Carolina in the Final Four and Stanford in the National Championship game. Wow that would be a fun, tense, ridiculous scenario!

You wanna win the title UConn? Then you must beat the Big 10 Champ, the ACC Champ, the SEC regular season champs, and then the Pac 12 Champs. Congrats, here's your trophy.

 

[Cornell Lt]

I feel for NC State not likely being assigned to the Greensboro regional in their home state of North Carolina due to South Carolina's proximity and higher seed/ranking. And, then to have be to sent to Bridgeport where the #2 seed could be a local team.

I remember when Dawn Staley was very upset that her 2016 team had to be sent to the regional in Sioux Falls, SD instead of the closer Lexington, KY regional because of fellow SEC school Kentucky being the logical choice to be in that regional (despite being a worse seed than SC). She cited how disappointing it was for the large following of Gamecock fans who would not be able to drive to watch their team play.

And then they got beat by Syracuse

 

[dtbtbtb]

If indeed this is the bracket UConn is in with having to go in theory through KY, Iowa, NC St., Stanford and SC, it would be the hardest road to championship that UConn had in many many years

 

[Urshurak]

Wow. With those Brackets UConn gets , KY, followed by Iowa followed by NC State? Followed by SC in Final 4? Then NC game against probably Stanford? Yeah, piece of cake!

Honestly, that’s beyond brutal. I'd rather they play in Greensboro......

 

[CL82]

Here we go…

 

[ConnMotors]

Why screw Iowa? But good news for UConn.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Kentucky, Iowa and NC State were the hottest teams in tournament play. That is a rough road to the Final Four.

AND UConn... especially with the defense they have been putting up. Last 8 games... smallest MOV 20pts... average MOV 41.75pts.

 

[jpp13]

I really like that bracket, if we win against chalk no way in hell you can say they didn't earn it.

 

[visitingcock]

What?? Based on what?
No way nc st is moving ahead of SC or Stan.

As of this moment, the NET has:
1. SCar
2. NC State
3. Stanford.

Here's a composite shot of numerous rankings:

AP NET RPI Massey ELO

• SCAR 1 1 1 1 3
• STAN 2 3 2 2 1
• NC St. 3 2 3 3 2

COULD NC State be number two? Yeah, but I think the Committee makes them 3.

 

[Vowelguy]

As of this moment, the NET has:
1. SCar
2. NC State
3. Stanford.

Here's a composite shot of numerous rankings:

AP NET RPI Massey ELO

• SCAR 1 1 1 1 3
• STAN 2 3 2 2 1
• NC St. 3 2 3 3 2

COULD NC State be number two? Yeah, but I think the Committee makes them 3.

All those numbers are somewhat meaningless. The most important info we have is this: NC State was #3 in the last committee rankings 8 days ago.

In order for them to move up to #2, their resume would have to have significantly improved or SC/Stan's significantly worsened in the past week.

I see no plausible case for that argument. Not even close.

 

[visitingcock]

I get the feeling ESPN is doing everything they can to try and influence the committee to put and keep UConn in Greensboro with S.C.. Will they influence the committee? I don't thinks so but, you never know........

Charlie works for ESPN. He has UConn paired with NC State.

Where's the basis of your of your feeling?

 

[Fossil]

UConn will probably end up as the number 6 overall seed depending on what happens in the Big 12 tournament. The S and the G curve will put them in either Bridgeport or Wichita if they follow the seed line.

I don’t know about the S or the G curve but I did hear that the one gets the easiest 2 seed so that would mean one plays eight than two should play seven and 3 Would Play 6 and 4 would play 5. If all stays the same in the rankings that puts us in Bridgeport versus North Carolina does it not? And what about the committee paying attention to Geographic area and travel. Again that should put Connecticut back in Bridgeport. I just worry about the committee making things up as they go along and not staying with established criteria.

 

[visitingcock]

All those numbers are somewhat meaningless. The most important info we have is this: NC State was #3 in the last committee rankings 8 days ago.

In order for them to move up to #2, their resume would have to have significantly improved or SC/Stan's significantly worsened in the past week.

I see no plausible case for that argument. Not even close.

As long as it's those top three and they can pick three teams to line up with them, they probably wont change but could

1. SCar vs. #8 Iowa
2. Stanford vs #7 (Big12 tourney runner up)
3. NC State vs #6 Uconn
4. Louisville vs 5 (Big12 Tourney Champ)

You can flip flop 4 and 5. That's what I see happening.

 

[visitingcock]

I don’t know about the S or the G curve but I did hear that the one gets the easiest 2 seed so that would mean one plays eight than two should play seven and 3 Would Play 6 and 4 would play 5. If all stays the same in the rankings that puts us in Bridgeport versus North Carolina does it not? And what about the committee paying attention to Geographic area and travel. Again that should put Connecticut back in Bridgeport. I just worry about the committee making things up as they go along and not staying with established criteria.

Rankings don't matter much. The top 12 ranked teams all have a shot.

And it's the NC State Wolfpack - not the North Carolina Tar Heels. If you're driving to Myrtle Baech this summer, don't make that mistake if you stop for gas in NC.

 

[MSGRET]

Regardless of the location to which they send Connecticut, I hope that the NCAA does not provide facilities and amenities to the women athletes that are vastly inferior to those offered to the men. Let's hope they clean up their act.

It was noted by the NCAA that both the men's and women's teams will receive the same amenities this tournament.

 

[Fossil]

Rankings don't matter much. The top 12 ranked teams all have a shot.

And it's the NC State Wolfpack - not the North Carolina Tar Heels. If you're driving to Myrtle Baech this summer, don't make that mistake if you stop for gas in NC.

I knew it was state I just omitted it by accident. I didn’t mean to offend the Wolfpack fans. My bad

 

[Carnac]

Looking at today's bracket, there are some really good #6 and #7 seeds who will give the #3 and #2 seeds a run for their money, even if on the road. Obviously, the #5 seed is where you would expect some upsets of the #4 seeds based on how close they should be in level of play.

southie, I expect the first round of the second weekend (game #3) is when we begin to see some upsets. It's going to happen. All of the weaker at-large teams will be gone.

There are ALWAYS "dark horses" in every tournament. This one will be no different. The thing about a dark horse is you never see them coming. Those lower seeded teams will come in with a "no fear" attitude and approach thinking they have nothing to lose. What's harder, playing to win, or playing not to lose? The first weekend will be fun to watch, but the tournament really begins the second weekend.

 

[visitingcock]

For giggles and art: Here's a cumulative ranking

TEAM AP Coach NET RPI Massey ELO AVERAGE

• SCAR 1 1 1 1 1 3 1.3
• STAN 2 2 3 2 2 1 2
• NC St. 3 3 2 3 3 2 2.67
• 
  
• Loui 5 5 5 6 5 6 5.34
• UConn 6 6 4 7 4 5 5.34
• 
  
• Baylor 4 4 7 12 6 4 6.16
• Io St 10 7 10 5 8 10 8.34
• Texas 7 9 8 18 7 9 9.67
• 
  
• Iowa 8 11 13 14 12 7 10.83
• Indiana 11 10 15 10 13 8 11.16

 

[Carnac]

Also according to Creme this morning, UConn would have to beat SEC tourney winner Kentucky to even get out of Storrs. What a game that would be!

I saw that. I would rather play any of the other #7 seeds (Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida) than #7 Kentucky. They finished the season on a roll, knocking off the #1 team in the country, and still smell chum in the water. Give me a team that lost their last game coming in.

 

[visitingcock]

I saw that. I would rather play any of the other #7 seeds (Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida) than #7 Kentucky. They finished the season on a roll, knocking off the #1 team in the country, and still smell chum in the water. Give me a team that lost their last game coming in.

Kentucky's big win was the third time they had faced SCar this year. I don't wanna' see 'em the 4th time

 

[Tonyc]

Greensboro/Greenville Spokane Wichita Bridgeport

South Carolina Stanford Baylor NC State
LVille Texas Iowa UConn

Now all the other teams can come after this. Figuring out where the rest of the teams go is up to the committee. IMO these teams have earned these spots close to home except Texas who would have to travel and lets face it, they would have to travel no matter where they go.

 

[southie]

Not sure Iowa can climb up to a #2 seed; plus, Iowa State, who is fighting for a #2 seed, beat Iowa this season and so that head-to-head win could make a difference.

How Iowa State and Texas do in the upcoming Big 12 tourney will impact their chances at a #2 seed; at least one will be a #3 seed. There will also be an impact on LSU (how has the head-to-head win over Iowa State) as a possible #2 seed.

 

[Plebe]

Not sure Iowa can climb up to a #2 seed; plus, Iowa State, who is fighting for a #2 seed, beat Iowa this season and so that head-to-head win could make a difference.

How Iowa State and Texas do in the upcoming Big 12 tourney will impact their chances at a #2 seed; at least one will be a #3 seed. There will also be an impact on LSU (how has the head-to-head win over Iowa State) as a possible #2 seed.

The last 2 seed might come down to LSU or Iowa. If they do promote Iowa all the way to a #2 seed (they were #14 overall one week ago), they'll be putting inordinate weight on the conference tournament.

Iowa has 3 wins over Indiana, plus wins over Michigan, Nebraska x3 and UCF. Counterposed to that are three Quad 2 losses (at home to IUPUI, Northwestern and Ohio State), plus the blowout loss to Duke.

LSU has wins over Iowa State, Tennessee, Georgia x2, Ole Miss and Kentucky; significant losses are to Arkansas, FGCU, Florida and Kentucky (only the home loss to FGCU is Quad 2).

I suppose it's debatable which team has the better wins, but Iowa definitely has worse losses. We'll see what the committee says.

 

[nomdoux]

I don’t think Crème’s latest Bracketology has quite caught up with present events, which is reflected more accurately by yesterday’s AP rankings IMO. Agree with sentiment here that ESPN’s present bracket projection is imbalanced.

UConn will be a #2 seed in either Wichita or Bridgeport. As a consistent & differentiated Top 3 team all season, I don’t think it’s fair to NC State to face daunting E8 road game v. UConn in CT regional but NCAA has to, or prefers to, separate top 2 ACC teams in overall bracket, I think. If Baylor wins the B12 Tournament, I think they will slot to play Louisville in Wichita, possibly resting the #1 seed there. If Baylor loses before B12 Final, I think they move to Bridgeport #2 seed with UConn going to Wichita to face the weakest #1 matchup, Louisville. Pulling Huskies out of their home state in overall down year makes sense to level playing field & combat bias notion.

 

[visitingcock]

The last 2 seed might come down to LSU or Iowa. If they do promote Iowa all the way to a #2 seed (they were #14 overall one week ago), they'll be putting inordinate weight on the conference tournament.

Iowa has 3 wins over Indiana, plus wins over Michigan, Nebraska x3 and UCF. Counterposed to that are three Quad 2 losses (at home to IUPUI, Northwestern and Ohio State), plus the blowout loss to Duke.

LSU has wins over Iowa State, Tennessee, Georgia x2, Ole Miss and Kentucky; significant losses are to Arkansas, FGCU, Florida and Kentucky (only the home loss to FGCU is Quad 2).

I suppose it's debatable which team has the better wins, but Iowa definitely has worse losses. We'll see what the committee says.

The weight given Iowa is not just from the tournament. They tied or the regular season title. I just don’t see the Committee leaving the top rated Big Ten team out of a two-seed unless they have to. And I don’t see LSU as a “have to” team.

 

[southie]

The last 2 seed might come down to LSU or Iowa. If they do promote Iowa all the way to a #2 seed (they were #14 overall one week ago), they'll be putting inordinate weight on the conference tournament.

Iowa has 3 wins over Indiana, plus wins over Michigan, Nebraska x3 and UCF. Counterposed to that are three Quad 2 losses (at home to IUPUI, Northwestern and Ohio State), plus the blowout loss to Duke.

LSU has wins over Iowa State, Tennessee, Georgia x2, Ole Miss and Kentucky; significant losses are to Arkansas, FGCU, Florida and Kentucky (only the home loss to FGCU is Quad 2).

I suppose it's debatable which team has the better wins, but Iowa definitely has worse losses. We'll see what the committee says.

It's gonna be fun to watch how it all shakes out; a lot of it depends on how Baylor, Iowa State, and Texas (and Oklahoma) perform in the Big 12 tourney.

As I've already mentioned, LSU can't be a #2 seed in South Carolina's region; so, the committed can keep them at the #7 spot from last week's reveal, or drop them all the way to #10; can't see the committee moving them up after a loss against Kentucky in the quarterfinals of the SEC tourney. But, that all depends on other teams above them possible losing this week.

Michigan lost in the same round as did LSU. It would make sense to drop them from the #8 spot. But, the committee will have place them in a different region than Iowa and Maryland.

And, the 4 Big 12 teams currently in the Top 16 (last reveal) have to be placed in different regions; Oklahoma losing at home to Kansas could have already dropped them from the Top 16 (although Creme still has them as a #4 seed as of today). If OU does drop from the Top 16 (they play Kansas again on Friday in a Big 12 quarterfinal game in KC, and possibly Baylor in the semi-finals), then the committee only has to concern themselves with 3 Big 12 teams in the Top 16 (which will give them a bit more flexibility in "scattering" them across the different regions). Assuming both Texas and Iowa State win their quarterfinal games on Friday, their semi-final game on Saturday could be for a #2 seed for the winner, and a #3 seed for the loser.

 

[Plebe]

The weight given Iowa is not just from the tournament. They tied or the regular season title. I just don’t see the Committee leaving the top rated Big Ten team out of a two-seed unless they have to. And I don’t see LSU as a “have to” team.

Why, because it's never happened before? Other than 2018, 2017 ...?

Iowa had already tied for the regular season title when they were deemed the #14 team by the committee. So any improvement to their resume after that occurred in the conference tournament.

 

[Plebe]

It's gonna be fun to watch how it all shakes out; a lot of it depends on how Baylor, Iowa State, and Texas (and Oklahoma) perform in the Big 12 tourney.

As I've already mentioned, LSU can't be a #2 seed in South Carolina's region; so, the committed can keep them at the #7 spot from last week's reveal, or drop them all the way to #10; can't see the committee moving them up after a loss against Kentucky in the quarterfinals of the SEC tourney. But, that all depends on other teams above them possible losing this week.

Michigan lost in the same round as did LSU. It would make sense to drop them from the #8 spot. But, the committee will have place them in a different region than Iowa and Maryland.

And, the 4 Big 12 teams currently in the Top 16 (last reveal) have to be placed in different regions; Oklahoma losing at home to Kansas could have already dropped them from the Top 16 (although Creme still has them as a #4 seed as of today). If OU does drop from the Top 16 (they play Kansas again on Friday in a Big 12 quarterfinal game in KC, and possibly Baylor in the semi-finals), then the committee only has to concern themselves with 3 Big 12 teams in the Top 16 (which will give them a bit more flexibility in "scattering" them across the different regions). Assuming both Texas and Iowa State win their quarterfinal games on Friday, their semi-final game on Saturday could be for a #2 seed for the winner, and a #3 seed for the loser.

The committee decides a "true" overall seeding of teams 1-68. If they decide LSU is the #8 team, that "true" seed number doesn't change. They'd simply have to deviate from the S-curve to assign LSU as the #2 seed in a region other than Greensboro.

In the top 4 seed lines, they don't have the flexibility to move a team up or down from their "true" seed line. (That flexibility applies to seed lines 5 and below.) A team whose true seed is on the 2 line would have to be a #2 seed somewhere.