The Official Bracketology thread, part II (beginning Mar 7)

[LETTERL]

Sign me up for this bracket.

Women's Bracketology: LSU, Iowa open on top line, but UConn is No. 1 overall

LSU and Iowa open as top seeds along with UConn and Utah. The Huskies are No. 1 overall in our first projection for 2023-24.

www.espn.com

That Bridgeport regional would be insane, if all four top seeds were to make it. Oklahoma has been sort of up and down of late, but UCONN/Iowa would be a dandy.

 

[Vowelguy]

 

[LwrcasefaN]

It wasn't too long ago that teams were chomping at the bit to face UCONN in their bracket...even in Bridgeport.

 

[JordyG]

Kentucky's big win was the third time they had faced SCar this year. I don't wanna' see 'em the 4th time

As Geno has said many, many times. Playing and beating the same team 3 times in one year is a bitch. I was surprised SCar lost, but not shocked. However, if they played 10 times in the regular season I'd expect a whuppin' by SCar of monumental proportions 9 times.

 

[BRS24]

As of today, 8 of the 15 conference tourneys had/will have "upsets" in conf tourney final, so the 1st place regular season teams are now looking for at-large bids and not AQs. Obviously, South Carolina and OSU are in, but the other 6 now have to wait, assuming they have any chance at all. There are also two other pending upsets, as Navy beat Holy Cross last night, and Idaho St in the Big Sky has already lost.

 

[Lorcan]

As of today, 8 of the 15 conference tourneys had/will have "upsets" in conf tourney final, so the 1st place regular season teams are now looking for at-large bids and not AQs. Obviously, South Carolina and OSU are in, but the other 6 now have to wait, assuming they have any chance at all. There are also two other pending upsets, as Navy beat Holy Cross last night, and Idaho St in the Big Sky has already lost.

View attachment 74164

Just a mild correction, South Dakota and South Dakota St. actually split the regular season title, with the Jackrabbits getting the #1 seed on a tiebreaker using the NET rankings.

 

[Glenn]

As some have suggested the way to approach this is to begin with the 2/28 reveal and then look at what has happened since then. The changes in AP, Massey, Creme, and Net are all reasonable lenses to view the changes implied by the recent results. The other piece of information is that the committee has moved teams around a lot since the first reveal, indicating that their might not be a lot of differentiation across seeds. Based on that, I would predict that Baylor/ISU will move into a #1 seed if they win the B12. If Baylor loses then they will stay a #2 seed. If ISU loses, they could either stay a #2 or drop to a #3, UConn moves up to a #2 owing to the losses by LSU and Michigan. It will be challenging to pick the top B10 team, but i assume Iowa will get the nod over Michigan, and perhaps even move to a #2 seed. And Oklahoma would be moved Bridgeport

Reveal 2/28	My guess (w Baylor win)	Greensboro
1. South Carolina	1. South Carolina	1	SC
2. Stanford	2. Stanford	8	Iowa
3. NC State	3. NC State	9	Texas
4. Louisville	4. Baylor	16	Ok
5. Baylor	5. Louisville	Spokane
6. Iowa State	6. Uconn	2	Stanford
7. LSU	7. Iowa St	7	ISU
8. Michigan	8. Iowa	10	LSU
9. UConn	9. Texas	15	MD
10. Texas	10. LSU	Bridgeport
11. Arizona	11. Indiana	3	NCSt
12. Maryland	12. Michigan	6	Uconn
13. Tennessee	13. Tennessee	11	Indiana
14. Iowa	14. Arizona	14	AZ
15. Indiana	15. Maryland	Wichita
16. Oklahoma	16. Oklahoma	4	Baylor
		5	Louisville
		12	Michigan
		13	TN

 

[Vowelguy]

LSU aint falling from 7 to 10 bc of a loss to SEC champ Kentucky
Nor is Iowa moving up 6 spots for beating Northwestern, Nebraska, and Indiana
That's just huge overweighting of the last week.

LSU is still likely a 2 seed and no way Iowa is any higher than a 3.

 

[southie]

As some have suggested the way to approach this is to begin with the 2/28 reveal and then look at what has happened since then. The changes in AP, Massey, Creme, and Net are all reasonable lenses to view the changes implied by the recent results. The other piece of information is that the committee has moved teams around a lot since the first reveal, indicating that their might not be a lot of differentiation across seeds. Based on that, I would predict that Baylor/ISU will move into a #1 seed if they win the B12. If Baylor loses then they will stay a #2 seed. If ISU loses, they could either stay a #2 or drop to a #3, UConn moves up to a #2 owing to the losses by LSU and Michigan. It will be challenging to pick the top B10 team, but i assume Iowa will get the nod over Michigan, and perhaps even move to a #2 seed. And Oklahoma would be moved Bridgeport

Reveal 2/28	My guess (w Baylor win)	Greensboro
1. South Carolina	1. South Carolina	1	SC
2. Stanford	2. Stanford	8	Iowa
3. NC State	3. NC State	9	Texas
4. Louisville	4. Baylor	16	Ok
5. Baylor	5. Louisville	Spokane
6. Iowa State	6. Uconn	2	Stanford
7. LSU	7. Iowa St	7	ISU
8. Michigan	8. Iowa	10	LSU
9. UConn	9. Texas	15	MD
10. Texas	10. LSU	Bridgeport
11. Arizona	11. Indiana	3	NCSt
12. Maryland	12. Michigan	6	Uconn
13. Tennessee	13. Tennessee	11	Indiana
14. Iowa	14. Arizona	14	AZ
15. Indiana	15. Maryland	Wichita
16. Oklahoma	16. Oklahoma	4	Baylor
		5	Louisville
		12	Michigan
		13	TN

Thanks for putting that together. I agree with some; disagree with some. But, you can't have both Texas and Oklahoma in the same regional.

One scenario you didn't account for is if Texas wins the Big 12 tourney; if the seeds hold, they'd pick up three more Q1 wins against Kansas State, Iowa State, and Baylor; two of those wins would be Top 10 wins. That would total 11 Q1 wins, a quantity only exceeded by SC, Stanford and NC State. So, moving up to a #2 seed would be a given, IMO.

 

[TeamFirst!]

Being slotted 2 in Bridgeport is not necessarily great. We could have to beat, in succession, Kentucky, Iowa, Oregon and then NC State just to get to the final 4.

 

[Plebe]

Being slotted 2 in Bridgeport is not necessarily great. We could have to beat, in succession, Kentucky, Iowa, Oregon and then NC State just to get to the final 4.

How do you figure? I don't believe UConn could face more than 3 of these teams before the final 4.

 

[fomalhaut]

Why on earth is Creighton in the tournament and not Villanova or Marquette or DePaul? I don't see any gaudy wins on their resume (Arkansas??). They split with all three of the other candidates, then lost in the quarterfinals against Seton Hall. If none of the other three is good enough for the NCAA tournament, neither is Creighton.

 

[Plebe]

Why on earth is Creighton in the tournament and not Villanova or Marquette or DePaul? I don't see any gaudy wins on their resume (Arkansas??). They split with all three of the other candidates, then lost in the quarterfinals against Seton Hall. If none of the other three is good enough for the NCAA tournament, neither is Creighton.

No gaudy wins, but overall slightly better quality body of work when you combine the nonconference and conference regular seasons.

Creighton scheduled pretty well in the OOC: all opponents except one were Quad 1 or Quad 2. The road win at Arkansas was the second-best OOC win of any of these teams (after DePaul's win over Kentucky), plus they didn't get creamed by a team like Texas A&M or lose to teams like Temple and Providence.

Marquette has zero Quad 1 wins. Good luck trying to get an at-large bid without any.

 

[Boreifs]

AND UConn... especially with the defense they have been putting up. Last 8 games... smallest MOV 20pts... average MOV 41.75pts.

I was referring to opponents in my post.

 

[fomalhaut]

Creighton scheduled pretty well in the OOC: all opponents except one were Quad 1 or Quad 2. The road win at Arkansas was the second-best OOC win of any of these teams (after DePaul's win over Kentucky), plus they didn't get creamed by a team like Texas A&M or lose to teams like Temple and Providence.

Marquette has zero Quad 1 wins. Good luck trying to get an at-large bid without any.

I'm not arguing that Marquette or DePaul should be in the tournament; I'm arguing that Creighton shouldn't. If there's a second team from the Big East, it should be Villanova, which made the Big East final and has a huge signature win.

The only teams Creighton beat which are going to be in the NCAA tournament are (probably?) South Dakota State and Arkansas (under .500 in the overrated SEC).

 

[nastynatty]

As some have suggested the way to approach this is to begin with the 2/28 reveal and then look at what has happened since then. The changes in AP, Massey, Creme, and Net are all reasonable lenses to view the changes implied by the recent results. The other piece of information is that the committee has moved teams around a lot since the first reveal, indicating that their might not be a lot of differentiation across seeds. Based on that, I would predict that Baylor/ISU will move into a #1 seed if they win the B12. If Baylor loses then they will stay a #2 seed. If ISU loses, they could either stay a #2 or drop to a #3, UConn moves up to a #2 owing to the losses by LSU and Michigan. It will be challenging to pick the top B10 team, but i assume Iowa will get the nod over Michigan, and perhaps even move to a #2 seed. And Oklahoma would be moved Bridgeport

Reveal 2/28	My guess (w Baylor win)	Greensboro
1. South Carolina	1. South Carolina	1	SC
2. Stanford	2. Stanford	8	Iowa
3. NC State	3. NC State	9	Texas
4. Louisville	4. Baylor	16	Ok
5. Baylor	5. Louisville	Spokane
6. Iowa State	6. Uconn	2	Stanford
7. LSU	7. Iowa St	7	ISU
8. Michigan	8. Iowa	10	LSU
9. UConn	9. Texas	15	MD
10. Texas	10. LSU	Bridgeport
11. Arizona	11. Indiana	3	NCSt
12. Maryland	12. Michigan	6	Uconn
13. Tennessee	13. Tennessee	11	Indiana
14. Iowa	14. Arizona	14	AZ
15. Indiana	15. Maryland	Wichita
16. Oklahoma	16. Oklahoma	4	Baylor
		5	Louisville
		12	Michigan
		13	TN

I really like this Top 16 prediction. Though, I think you’d have to switch Oklahoma and Arizona’s regional placements because of conference matchups in the Top 16.

 

[Skeets]

Yeah, in 2004 Penn State was the #1 seed in - wait for it - Hartford. UConn was the #2 seed.

That was DT's senior year. Without doing 1 iota of research, how in the world was UConn not a 1 seed somewhere? that was also the year the men and women won it all. That may never be done again. Oops it was....

 

[mbr33ct]

No gaudy wins, but overall slightly better quality body of work when you combine the nonconference and conference regular seasons.

Creighton scheduled pretty well in the OOC: all opponents except one were Quad 1 or Quad 2. The road win at Arkansas was the second-best OOC win of any of these teams (after DePaul's win over Kentucky), plus they didn't get creamed by a team like Texas A&M or lose to teams like Temple and Providence.

Marquette has zero Quad 1 wins. Good luck trying to get an at-large bid without any.

I keep beating this dead horse here (insert gif here), hope the rest of the Big East teams take notice what Creighton has done, regarding scheduling stronger OOC teams...I'm looking at you DePaul, Villanova, Marquette, Seton Hall and the rest of the bottom feeders...git er done.

 

[ConnMotors]

From what I have seen many of you are saying the NC State should be the Overall Third #1 Seed as so do I. My question is are the four Regional locations written in stone as to where the winner plays whom to when they get to the Final Four? From what I have seen in other posts the winner of Greensboro vs. Bridgeport plays the winner of Spokane vs. Wichita. Is that correct? Glen above has us in Bridgeport. So if we win out then we meet Stanford in the Final Four. I'm not sure if I would like that game. Rather play South Carolina.

 

[hoopsfan22]

As Geno has said many, many times. Playing and beating the same team 3 times in one year is a bitch. I was surprised SCar lost, but not shocked. However, if they played 10 times in the regular season I'd expect a whuppin' by SCar of monumental proportions 9 times.

I think we've even played a team four times in one season - ND in 2012-13. I think we were 0-3 against them going into the NCAA tourney when Stewie made sure we won the one that mattered most.

 

[mbr33ct]

I think we've even played a team four times in one season - ND in 2012-13. I think we were 0-3 against them going into the NCAA tourney when Stewie made sure we won the one that mattered most.

If I recall in that particular year all I kept hearing/reading was that ND won 7-9 against UConn...until as you mentioned the game that mattered most.

 

[HuskyNan]

That was DT's senior year. Without doing 1 iota of research, how in the world was UConn not a 1 seed somewhere? that was also the year the men and women won it all. That may never be done again. Oops it was....

They had 4 losses including one to, yes, unranked villanova.

In Dec 2003, the Huskies pasted NC State 87-53. Do I smell mojo here?

 

[BRS24]

Today's update - "Mid-major conference tournaments at this point in Championship Week typically serve as potential bid-stealing events. On Monday, one of those leagues gave back a bid. Entering Tuesday, the Summit League was projected to be a two-bid league, but South Dakota's victory over South Dakota State in the Summit final knocked the Jackrabbits out as the conference's automatic bid. South Dakota State's profile doesn't quite add up to an at-large berth, leaving the Coyotes as the Summit's lone representative. Villanova is the beneficiary. One night after the lows of a 30-point loss to UConn in the Big East title game, the Wildcats got what all bubble teams hope for this time of year: one more chance to get an invitation to the NCAA tournament. South Dakota State comes out. Villanova slides in. And the Wildcats' bubble hasn't burst -- at least not yet."

BRACKETOLOGY LINK

No changes to top 16, as we'll probably have to await the Big12 tourney for any movement.

 

[Plebe]

From what I have seen many of you are saying the NC State should be the Overall Third #1 Seed as so do I. My question is are the four Regional locations written in stone as to where the winner plays whom to when they get to the Final Four? From what I have seen in other posts the winner of Greensboro vs. Bridgeport plays the winner of Spokane vs. Wichita. Is that correct? Glen above has us in Bridgeport. So if we win out then we meet Stanford in the Final Four. I'm not sure if I would like that game. Rather play South Carolina.

It's not written in stone, other than the overall #1 and the overall #4 are always slated to meet in the semifinals, same as #2 vs. #3. As it turns out, that would mean Greensboro vs. Wichita and Spokane vs. Bridgeport. But if the 1 seeds were in a different order those matchups could have changed.

 

[Skeets]

They had 4 losses including one to, yes, unranked villanova.

In Dec 2003, the Huskies pasted NC State 87-53. Do I smell mojo here?

Dummy me. IIRC that was the Big East championship game at the RAC. It was a long drive to get there and a longer drive to get home following a disappointing loss.