The Official Bracketology thread, part II (beginning Mar 7)

[LETTERL]

After watching the AAC final, I'm convinced that whoever ends up hosting UCF in the first two rounds will be on upset alert. They seem to be a veteran team, with 2 Super Seniors...and are going to be a handful.

 

[Phil]

NEC #1 seed Farleigh Dickinson loses in championship game. Brings it up to 10 of 17 conferences thus far that have had an upset in their tourneys.
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I think OSU and Iowa were co-champions of the Big Ten, with OSU winning the tiebreaker for seeding purposes

 

[MSGRET]

I think OSU and Iowa were co-champions of the Big Ten, with OSU winning the tiebreaker for seeding purposes

I believe that Iowa will be seeded higher than Ohio State given the fact that they won the tournament and earned the AQ with the championship.

 

[HuskylnSC]

On the issue of parity, and with an eye at the B1G, I want to bring out an old saw from high school days; "When your JV's beat your varsity, you don't have two varsities." I am going to be surprised if the B1G, or the SEC, will have many teams advance to the second weekend. Is it possible that the parity spoken of is actually wide spread mediocrity?

 

[LoboDays]

On the issue of parity, and with an eye at the B1G, I want to bring out an old saw from high school days; "When your JV's beat your varsity, you don't have two varsities." I am going to be surprised if the B1G, or the SEC, will have many teams advance to the second weekend. Is it possible that the parity spoken of is actually wide spread mediocrity?

Parity doesn’t mean that every team is a great or even a very good team. It means that more teams can be competitive. This has clearly happened. Girls youth and H.S. teams are producing more and more quality players. As their numbers grow, they have to be spread out to more and more colleges. I don’t think that makes them all mediocre. There will always be levels (great vs good) but the sport is definitely headed in the right direction.

 

[Longtime fan]

Below is a link to Part I

The Official Bracketology Thread

Looking at Charly's latest brackets the Bridgeport region has just got tougher. Uconn stays at #3 but he now has Baylor as a #2 which I feel is a more difficult game than Michigan would have been.Also he now has Maryland at a #3 and I feel they will beat NCState setting up an elite matchup with...

the-boneyard.com

I would take NC State over Maryland, but it doesn't matter. In the end, we have to beat whomever we are assigned to play. If we are going to win this thing, everyone must go down. Nothing will be easy...except, maybe round one.

 

[Plebe]

Oklahoma's win over Kansas today likely seals the top 16 overall seeds. Quite a few other teams that had been on the hosting bubble (like Notre Dame and Oregon) lost to lesser teams.

SC, Stanford, NC State — top 3 overall
Baylor, Louisville — 1 or 2 seeds
Iowa State, LSU, UConn, Texas, Iowa — 2 or 3 seeds
Michigan, Indiana, Tennessee, Maryland, Arizona, Oklahoma — 3 or 4 seeds

 

[BRS24]

Today's update - no changes to top 16 teams, a few #1 conf tourney seeds playing today, which could affect AQs and bubble teams.

"Can Baylor earn a No. 1 seed? Will Oklahoma end up in the top 16? Can Iowa State or Texas get No. 2 seeds? These are some of the biggest questions left as Selection Sunday nears, and the Big 12 tournament holds the answers. The Sooners must win Friday's quarterfinal vs. Kansas -- which beat OU just six days ago -- to remain among the top four seeds. If the Cyclones and Longhorns meet as expected in the semifinals, the winner will be a No. 2 seed and the loser a No. 3. Baylor is the hottest team in the conference. If that continues and the Bears march to a Big 12 tournament title, they will surpass Louisville for the final No. 1 seed."

 

[visitingcock]

Today's update - no changes to top 16 teams, a few #1 conf tourney seeds playing today, which could affect AQs and bubble teams.

"Can Baylor earn a No. 1 seed? Will Oklahoma end up in the top 16? Can Iowa State or Texas get No. 2 seeds? These are some of the biggest questions left as Selection Sunday nears, and the Big 12 tournament holds the answers. The Sooners must win Friday's quarterfinal vs. Kansas -- which beat OU just six days ago -- to remain among the top four seeds. If the Cyclones and Longhorns meet as expected in the semifinals, the winner will be a No. 2 seed and the loser a No. 3. Baylor is the hottest team in the conference. If that continues and the Bears march to a Big 12 tournament title, they will surpass Louisville for the final No. 1 seed."

Oklahoma beat Kansas 80-68.
Baylor crushing Ok St. still in first half but absolute domination. Crushing!

 

[hoophuskee]

Oklahoma's win over Kansas today likely seals the top 16 overall seeds. Quite a few other teams that had been on the hosting bubble (like Notre Dame and Oregon) lost to lesser teams.

SC, Stanford, NC State — top 3 overall
Baylor, Louisville — 1 or 2 seeds
Iowa State, LSU, UConn, Texas, Iowa — 2 or 3 seeds
Michigan, Indiana, Tennessee, Maryland, Arizona, Oklahoma — 3 or 4 seeds

UCONN should easily be a 2 seed.

 

[Plebe]

UCONN should easily be a 2 seed.

Very likely, but not a sure thing, IMO. Just as Iowa "should" be a 3 seed, but there's a tiny chance the committee overweights their conference tournament to move them all the way from a 4 seed to a 2 seed.

If Texas beats ISU in the Big 12 semis, it's not out of the question that both could be 2 seeds. Perhaps not likely, but possible. Texas was #10, one spot behind UConn, as of 10 days ago, and a win over Iowa State would be far better than any win UConn's had since then. If Texas wins the B12 tourney, extremely likely they'll be a 2 seed.

I'm also not convinced the committee drops LSU behind UConn. Their loss to Kentucky could be mitigated in the committee's view by the fact Morris didn't play. No doubt LSU has a better ledger of quality wins than UConn.

There are enough moving parts and uncertainties that I'm not ready to rule a 3 seed out for UConn. Maybe about a 10% chance.

 

[hoophuskee]

Very likely, but not a sure thing, IMO. Just as Iowa "should" be a 3 seed, but there's a tiny chance the committee overweights their conference tournament to move them all the way from a 4 seed to a 2 seed.

If Texas beats ISU in the Big 12 semis, it's not out of the question that both could be 2 seeds. Perhaps not likely, but possible. Texas was #10, one spot behind UConn, as of 10 days ago, and a win over Iowa State would be far better than any win UConn's had since then. If Texas wins the B12 tourney, extremely likely they'll be a 2 seed.

I'm also not convinced the committee drops LSU behind UConn. Their loss to Kentucky could be mitigated in the committee's view by the fact Morris didn't play. No doubt LSU has a better ledger of quality wins than UConn.

There are enough moving parts and uncertainties that I'm not ready to rule a 3 seed out for UConn. Maybe about a 10% chance.

It would be crazy for them to not have them as a 2. Creme even recently said he had that as a 2 and a number 6 overall, didn't he? OFC he is not the one to decide. Though I think he has them right now in Bdgpt.

 

[Plebe]

Princeton currently with their hands full vs. Harvard.

If they lose, Princeton will very much be on the bubble. Could be a bid steal scenario, or they could be left out.

 

[BRS24]

No changes to top 16, will have to see if Big12 semi results will change things up.

"All the favorites won in Friday's Big 12 quarterfinals, which sets up Saturday to be the most important day of the league's season. The Texas-Iowa State winner should lock up a No. 2 NCAA seed, with the loser headed toward a 3-seed on Selection Sunday. Baylor, which has won 11 games in a row, meets Oklahoma -- the only team the Bears didn't beat in the Big 12 this season -- in the other semifinal. If Baylor beats OU and wins the Big 12 tournament title Sunday, the Bears should be positioned for a No. 1 seed. Elsewhere, regular-season champions Maine (America East) and Toledo (MAC) are both headed to the WNIT after Friday losses. Albany punched its ticket to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2017 after beating the Black Bears. Ball State upset the Rockets and now faces Buffalo with a chance to advance to just the second NCAA tournament in program history."

 

[Lorcan]

it would be beautiful imagery if Ball State beat Buffalo and got sent to Knoxville again.

 

[BRS24]

 

[schmendrick]

Creme swaps Baylor for Louisville as 1 and 2 in Wichita.

 

[Cornell Lt]

If the actual brackets are as Charlie has predicted. UConn has some favorable matchups. Florida replaces Kentucky as 7 seed and Michigan replaces Iowa at the 3 seed..

 

[jchusky]

a team that UConn does not want in their side of the bracket right now is Texas, they are playing physical and mean. Vic Schafer also has had success in the tournament.

 

[Byukiok808]

If the actual brackets are as Charlie has predicted. UConn has some favorable matchups. Florida replaces Kentucky as 7 seed and Michigan replaces Iowa at the 3 seed..

I agree this looks much more favorable. Not that Florida or Michigan would be easy outs by any means but Kentucky and Iowa are two of the hottest teams entering the tournament.

 

[oldude]

If the actual brackets are as Charlie has predicted. UConn has some favorable matchups. Florida replaces Kentucky as 7 seed and Michigan replaces Iowa at the 3 seed..

Agreed. One matchup that would be interesting is Iowa vs SC in the Elite 8. Could Clark put up 40+ and knock SC out of the tournament?

 

[BRS24]

Last night's update - "Baylor's 15-point win over Oklahoma on Saturday in the Big 12 semifinals was enough to move the Bears past Louisville and onto the No. 1 seed line. If Baylor completes its run through the Big 12 tournament on Sunday, the Bears will have won 13 straight, plus regular-season and tournament titles. Still, a loss in the Big 12 final could knock Baylor back to a 2-seed. Meanwhile, Oklahoma holds as the last member of the top 16 despite Saturday's loss. But keep in mind that the Sooners have lost twice since the Feb. 28 selection committee reveal, which had them at No. 16. However, while playing against a top-10 rated schedule, OU has more quality wins at all the different levels (NET top 25, top 50, top 100) than any of the other teams vying for a spot in the top 16: Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Oregon and North Carolina, none of which reached the championship game of their conference tournaments. Texas earned a No. 2 seed with its overtime win over Iowa State. The Cyclones also stay on the 2-line because of the competitiveness of the game, dropping LSU to a No. 3 seed."

Two up and down seeds, four region changes. And now we await the results.

 

[SLY63]

If the actual brackets are as Charlie has predicted. UConn has some favorable matchups. Florida replaces Kentucky as 7 seed and Michigan replaces Iowa at the 3 seed..

Both of these are much more favorable for us. I always get nervous when we play against a marquis player (shooter) who has the potential to "go off", like Clark or Howard/Edwards, or a great 3 point shooting team.

Now we only need Charlie to be right.

 

[Jmsdawg]

Agreed. One matchup that would be interesting is Iowa vs SC in the Elite 8. Could Clark put up 40+ and knock SC out of the tournament?

Iowa is the type team that could cause SC problems. If Iowa can hit outside and keep Zia in check they could beat SC but they will need phenomenal success with the 3’s. I see Iowa much as I see UConn in regards to beating SC, they both need star players to have great games to have realistic shot at beating SC.