The Official Bracketology thread, part II (beginning Mar 7)

[HuskyNan]

Dummy me. IIRC that was the Big East championship game at the RAC. It was a long drive to get there and a longer drive to get home following a disappointing loss.

Yep, I was there too. You could see in the prior games that something was awry because the team just stood around and watched Diana make magic.

 

[ConnMotors]

From what I have seen many of you are saying the NC State should be the Overall Third #1 Seed as so do I. My question is are the four Regional locations written in stone as to where the winner plays whom to when they get to the Final Four? From what I have seen in other posts the winner of Greensboro vs. Bridgeport plays the winner of Spokane vs. Wichita. Is that correct? Glen above has us in Bridgeport. So if we win out then we meet Stanford in the Final Four. I'm not sure if I would like that game. Rather play South Carolina.

As some have suggested the way to approach this is to begin with the 2/28 reveal and then look at what has happened since then. The changes in AP, Massey, Creme, and Net are all reasonable lenses to view the changes implied by the recent results. The other piece of information is that the committee has moved teams around a lot since the first reveal, indicating that their might not be a lot of differentiation across seeds. Based on that, I would predict that Baylor/ISU will move into a #1 seed if they win the B12. If Baylor loses then they will stay a #2 seed. If ISU loses, they could either stay a #2 or drop to a #3, UConn moves up to a #2 owing to the losses by LSU and Michigan. It will be challenging to pick the top B10 team, but i assume Iowa will get the nod over Michigan, and perhaps even move to a #2 seed. And Oklahoma would be moved Bridgeport

Reveal 2/28	My guess (w Baylor win)	Greensboro
1. South Carolina	1. South Carolina	1	SC
2. Stanford	2. Stanford	8	Iowa
3. NC State	3. NC State	9	Texas
4. Louisville	4. Baylor	16	Ok
5. Baylor	5. Louisville	Spokane
6. Iowa State	6. Uconn	2	Stanford
7. LSU	7. Iowa St	7	ISU
8. Michigan	8. Iowa	10	LSU
9. UConn	9. Texas	15	MD
10. Texas	10. LSU	Bridgeport
11. Arizona	11. Indiana	3	NCSt
12. Maryland	12. Michigan	6	Uconn
13. Tennessee	13. Tennessee	11	Indiana
14. Iowa	14. Arizona	14	AZ
15. Indiana	15. Maryland	Wichita
16. Oklahoma	16. Oklahoma	4	Baylor
		5	Louisville
		12	Michigan
		13	TN

I will jump in with the Baylor win also taking the Big 12 Tournament and using the last AP Top-25 poll. I know that it doesn't mean anything.

1) South Carolina -- 2) Iowa -- 3) Texas -- 4) Maryland -- 5) Oklahoma -- 6) Notre Dame -- 7) Georgia Tech
1) Stanford -- 2) LSU -- 3) Michigan -- 4) North Carolina -- 5) Tennessee -- 6) Kansas -- 7) Villanova
1) Baylor -- 2) Louisville -- 3) Indiana -- 4) Kentucky -- 5) Virginia Tech -- 6) Mississippi -- 7) Georgia
1) NC State -- 2) UConn -- 3) Iowa State -- 4) Ohio State -- 5) Arizona -- 6) Miami -- 7) BYU

 

[nutmegger]

From what I have seen many of you are saying the NC State should be the Overall Third #1 Seed as so do I. My question is are the four Regional locations written in stone as to where the winner plays whom to when they get to the Final Four? From what I have seen in other posts the winner of Greensboro vs. Bridgeport plays the winner of Spokane vs. Wichita. Is that correct? Glen above has us in Bridgeport. So if we win out then we meet Stanford in the Final Four. I'm not sure if I would like that game. Rather play South Carolina.


I will jump in with the Baylor win also taking the Big 12 Tournament and using the last AP Top-25 poll. I know that it doesn't mean anything.

1) South Carolina -- 2) Iowa -- 3) Texas -- 4) Maryland -- 5) Oklahoma -- 6) Notre Dame -- 7) Georgia Tech
1) Stanford -- 2) LSU -- 3) Michigan -- 4) North Carolina -- 5) Tennessee -- 6) Kansas -- 7) Villanova
1) Baylor -- 2) Louisville -- 3) Indiana -- 4) Kentucky -- 5) Virginia Tech -- 6) Mississippi -- 7) Georgia
1) NC State -- 2) UConn -- 3) Iowa State -- 4) Ohio State -- 5) Arizona -- 6) Miami -- 7) BYU

Iowa and Maryland are in the Big 10. I don't think they can be in the same bracket.

 

[Lorcan]

Iowa and Maryland are in the Big 10. I don't think they can be in the same bracket.

They can be if there are 5 Big 10 Teams in the Top 16, which they have with Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio State all making an appearance. That means one of the Big 10 Teams will get slotted in the same region as another Top 4 Seeded Big 10 Team.

 

[BRS24]

Today's update - no changes to top 16 and probably won't see many, if any, dependent on Big 12 conference tourney games.

AAC final today, #1 UCF vs. #2 USF. seeded #8 & #10 respectively in Bridgeport region.

"With UNLV completing its sweep of the Mountain West regular-season and tournament titles Wednesday, 14 bids are locked up four days before Selection Sunday. The Lady Rebels' win over Colorado State, and victories by other presumed automatic bids such as Florida Gulf Coast, Toledo, Central Florida, Hawai'i, Norfolk State and Fairfield, meant no changes to the bracket after Wednesday's games. But there was bubble shuffling after some reevaluation: Dayton becomes the last team in the field, with Villanova getting a slight bump. After additional analysis and some more weight applied to its Kentucky win, DePaul moves into the First Four Out category."

 

[UCFKnights]

I'm kind of confused by UCF dropping to an 8 seed (from a 7 last week). They've jumped to 17 in NET so it seems like they're underseeded at the moment. Obviously NET isn't the only factor but still would expect better than an 8. No marquee wins hurts but they've won 12 straight.

 

[ConnMotors]

Iowa and Maryland are in the Big 10. I don't think they can be in the same bracket.

THEY WOULD ONLY MEET IN THE CONFERENCE FINAL

 

[Vowelguy]

I'm kind of confused by UCF dropping to an 8 seed (from a 7 last week). They've jumped to 17 in NET so it seems like they're underseeded at the moment. Obviously NET isn't the only factor but still would expect better than an 8. No marquee wins hurts but they've won 12 straight.

Unimpressive non conference schedule doesn't help. The committee doesnt want to get in a guessing game about how good you are -- play good teams and it becomes a lot clearer where you fit.

They had 2 road games against teams that could be in the field (Iowa & USF), and went 1-1.

 

[UCFKnights]

Unimpressive non conference schedule doesn't help. The committee doesnt want to get in a guessing game about how good you are -- play good teams and it becomes a lot clearer where you fit.

They had 2 road games against teams that could be in the field (Iowa & USF), and went 1-1.

Like I said no marquee wins but they only currently have 1 Q4 win/game and their SOS is 35th (34th OOC) according to Nolan so it's not like they had a super easy OOC schedule. The cancelled game at Princeton obviously hurt both schools. I know they shouldn't be on the 5 seed line, despite the NET, but I think the 8 seed is definitely too low. Especially when he had them at 7 a little over a week ago and in that time they won by 35, 13, 15 and 33.

 

[Plebe]

They can be if there are 5 Big 10 Teams in the Top 16, which they have with Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio State all making an appearance. That means one of the Big 10 Teams will get slotted in the same region as another Top 4 Seeded Big 10 Team.

Ohio State will not be in the top 16. And even if by some miracle they are, they will be the 5th of the Big Ten teams, which means Iowa and Maryland still can't be in the same region.

 

[Plebe]

I'm kind of confused by UCF dropping to an 8 seed (from a 7 last week). They've jumped to 17 in NET so it seems like they're underseeded at the moment. Obviously NET isn't the only factor but still would expect better than an 8. No marquee wins hurts but they've won 12 straight.

I suspect UCF was displaced by the meteoric rise of Kentucky (projected as 7 seed).

Remember also that it's comparison game. If you look at the resumes of the currently projected 7 seeds and higher, how does UCF's resume stack up against theirs? When your best win is against a projected 10 seed, it kinda limits your ceiling. Plus the Quad 3 loss hurts.

 

[Alydar]

The weight given Iowa is not just from the tournament. They tied or the regular season title. I just don’t see the Committee leaving the top rated Big Ten team out of a two-seed unless they have to. And I don’t see LSU as a “have to” team.

The way the top 5 teams in the B1G beat each other it's not far off to say there was a virtual 5 way tie for the reg season. I really enjoyed watching a lot of the games but the 5 teams had great games and suckie games and a lot of wins were not because of great play by the winner, rather it was bad play by the loser. Some of the bad losses were with injured players, which NET doesn't factor in. In part, the reason so many B1G teams are ranked where they are is because MD was a pre-season FF selection in many places, like ESPN, so to support MD when they lost they assumed that those other teams "must be great". But what if they are just like the B1G is most years, S16, E8, but no further. Same with MD. When was the last time they were not an ESPN pre-season FF team by one of the crew? And how many FF's have they been in lately?
There are a lot of media types that still think in terms of the RPI, where all that matters is wins and losses, and the AP poll is the result. Under NET there are good and bad wins and good and bad losses. In addition to their record teams are graded in how they played each game. A 2 pt road win when favored by 15 is a bad win. NET factors all that in. That's why UConn is 4th, despite not having a bunch of wins against elite teams, they outplayed expectations and NET rewards that.
NET is the only metric mentioned in the rules and there is an explanation of how it is different. So all the committee HAS to do to put UConn in Bridgeport as a 1 or a 2 is to point to NET, in which UConn is 4th. Add in that their injured are all available and the only question is whether they WANT to do that. The SC can make a plausible argument for many different brackets. Reading their rules it seems to me that their biggest headache is in picking the last half dozen teams from a list of a dozen and a half. After living through that exercise my guess is that the committee accepts whatever arrangement the chairman offers.

 

[Alydar]

View attachment 74158

This is all true but does anyone remember reading Charlie say that Louisville, GT or Oregon's wins over CT were being discounted?????? Sorry Charlie. You told the truth but not the whole truth.

 

[BRS24]

NEC #1 seed Farleigh Dickinson loses in championship game. Brings it up to 10 of 17 conferences thus far that have had an upset in their tourneys.

 

[tchalla1]

Also according to Creme this morning, UConn would have to beat SEC tourney winner Kentucky to even get out of Storrs. What a game that would be!

No it won't--I see UConn dismantling Kentucky fairly easily--Kentucky is pretty undisciplined in their offense and defense--although they have talent, if you'll look at some of their losses, they are susceptible to well-mechanized offenses and that's right up UConn's alley. SC played very poorly against Kentucky, they had quite a few mental lapses but even with that, they were up comfortably going into the 4th Q, where they scored all of 7 points. it wasn't a spectacular game for either team, a lot of one-on-one offense for both teams and again a lot of miscues., bad-decisions.

If UConn plays their game, they will run a frustrated Kentucky out the gym.....

 

[The deacon]

Don’t avoid any team. Geno always says any team, any time any place. You have to beat all the # 1 seeds any way you slice it. Time to get after it

An admirable mission statement, but I'd imagine any team would be quite happy skating through all the way to the title without facing a #1. There'd be no quality points attached to UConn's season if the Huskies beat a couple of #1s on their way to the final, only to lose to a third.

 

[Alydar]

It's not written in stone, other than the overall #1 and the overall #4 are always slated to meet in the semifinals, same as #2 vs. #3. As it turns out, that would mean Greensboro vs. Wichita and Spokane vs. Bridgeport. But if the 1 seeds were in a different order those matchups could have changed.

I hadn't noticed that. I'd much rather see UConn play Tara when she has 24 hours to prepare rather than 6 days.

 

[The deacon]

southie, I expect the first round of the second weekend (game #3) is when we begin to see some upsets. It's going to happen. All of the weaker at-large teams will be gone.

There are ALWAYS "dark horses" in every tournament. This one will be no different. The thing about a dark horse is you never see them coming. Those lower seeded teams will come in with a "no fear" attitude and approach thinking they have nothing to lose. What's harder, playing to win, or playing not to lose? The first weekend will be fun to watch, but the tournament really begins the second weekend.

A few years ago I'd have agreed, Carnac, but I believe the depth of field is so much stronger these days that the second round could well provide some upsets. Even the suggested draw that could place UConn vs. SEC tournament champ Kentucky in the Round of 32 exemplifies that point.

While having my fingers crossed the Huskies move on past that round, I suspect there'll be a whole more exciting games to watch the first weekend of the tournament than in past years.

 

[Plebe]

I hadn't noticed that. I'd much rather see UConn play Tara when she has 24 hours to prepare rather than 6 days.

If UConn is in Bridgeport, any collision with Stanford would be in the national semis. That much is known at this point.

 

[Alydar]

An admirable mission statement, but I'd imagine any team would be quite happy skating through all the way to the title without facing a #1. There'd be no quality points attached to UConn's season if the Huskies beat a couple of #1s on their way to the final, only to lose to a third.

Maybe not from the national media but beating three 1's to a title after the season UConn had would put 2022 up there among the top 4 or 5. Of the men's titles the Kemba Walker title was my favorite in a close battle with the 1st one against Duke.

 

[The deacon]

Maybe not from the national media but beating three 1's to a title after the season UConn had would put 2022 up there among the top 4 or 5. Of the men's titles the Kemba Walker title was my favorite in a close battle with the 1st one against Duke.

Agreed re that Kemba-led men's title, Alydar, but if you re-read my post you'll see I was conjecturing that it wouldn't be so memorable for the Huskies women to beat two #1 seeds only to lose to another.

 

[MSGRET]

Ohio State will not be in the top 16. And even if by some miracle they are, they will be the 5th of the Big Ten teams, which means Iowa and Maryland still can't be in the same region.

If you have 5 teams in the top 16, then 2 of them will be in the same region considering that there are only 4 regions..

 

[Plebe]

If you have 5 teams in the top 16, then 2 of them will be in the same region considering that there are only 4 regions..

Yes, but by rule the first 4 teams taken from a conference are put in separate regions (if they are seeded 4 or higher), and then the 5th team gets put in a region with one of the top 4. If Ohio State Is the 5th team taken from the Big Ten, then even if they are top 16 they have to go into a region with one of the top 4.

 

[MSGRET]

Yes, but by rule the first 4 teams taken from a conference are put in separate regions (if they are seeded 4 or higher), and then the 5th team gets put in a region with one of the top 4. If Ohio State Is the 5th team taken from the Big Ten, then even if they are top 16 they have to go into a region with one of the top 4.

I guess I misinterpreted your post as two teams in the Big Ten couldn't meet and not Iowa and Maryland couldn't meet.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

I didn't think Baylor would be this good. Gutsy and boss move not to follow Kim to LSU.

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