The Official Bracketology thread, part II (beginning Mar 7)

[visitingcock]

I don’t know about the S or the G curve but I did hear that the one gets the easiest 2 seed so that would mean one plays eight than two should play seven and 3 Would Play 6 and 4 would play 5. If all stays the same in the rankings that puts us in Bridgeport versus North Carolina does it not? And what about the committee paying attention to Geographic area and travel. Again that should put Connecticut back in Bridgeport. I just worry about the committee making things up as they go along and not staying with established criteria.

Rankings don't matter much. The top 12 ranked teams all have a shot.

And it's the NC State Wolfpack - not the North Carolina Tar Heels. If you're driving to Myrtle Baech this summer, don't make that mistake if you stop for gas in NC.

 

[MSGRET]

Regardless of the location to which they send Connecticut, I hope that the NCAA does not provide facilities and amenities to the women athletes that are vastly inferior to those offered to the men. Let's hope they clean up their act.

It was noted by the NCAA that both the men's and women's teams will receive the same amenities this tournament.

 

[Fossil]

Rankings don't matter much. The top 12 ranked teams all have a shot.

And it's the NC State Wolfpack - not the North Carolina Tar Heels. If you're driving to Myrtle Baech this summer, don't make that mistake if you stop for gas in NC.

I knew it was state I just omitted it by accident. I didn’t mean to offend the Wolfpack fans. My bad

 

[Carnac]

Looking at today's bracket, there are some really good #6 and #7 seeds who will give the #3 and #2 seeds a run for their money, even if on the road. Obviously, the #5 seed is where you would expect some upsets of the #4 seeds based on how close they should be in level of play.

southie, I expect the first round of the second weekend (game #3) is when we begin to see some upsets. It's going to happen. All of the weaker at-large teams will be gone.

There are ALWAYS "dark horses" in every tournament. This one will be no different. The thing about a dark horse is you never see them coming. Those lower seeded teams will come in with a "no fear" attitude and approach thinking they have nothing to lose. What's harder, playing to win, or playing not to lose? The first weekend will be fun to watch, but the tournament really begins the second weekend.

 

[visitingcock]

For giggles and art: Here's a cumulative ranking

TEAM AP Coach NET RPI Massey ELO AVERAGE

• SCAR 1 1 1 1 1 3 1.3
• STAN 2 2 3 2 2 1 2
• NC St. 3 3 2 3 3 2 2.67
• 
  
• Loui 5 5 5 6 5 6 5.34
• UConn 6 6 4 7 4 5 5.34
• 
  
• Baylor 4 4 7 12 6 4 6.16
• Io St 10 7 10 5 8 10 8.34
• Texas 7 9 8 18 7 9 9.67
• 
  
• Iowa 8 11 13 14 12 7 10.83
• Indiana 11 10 15 10 13 8 11.16

 

[Carnac]

Also according to Creme this morning, UConn would have to beat SEC tourney winner Kentucky to even get out of Storrs. What a game that would be!

I saw that. I would rather play any of the other #7 seeds (Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida) than #7 Kentucky. They finished the season on a roll, knocking off the #1 team in the country, and still smell chum in the water. Give me a team that lost their last game coming in.

 

[visitingcock]

I saw that. I would rather play any of the other #7 seeds (Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida) than #7 Kentucky. They finished the season on a roll, knocking off the #1 team in the country, and still smell chum in the water. Give me a team that lost their last game coming in.

Kentucky's big win was the third time they had faced SCar this year. I don't wanna' see 'em the 4th time

 

[Tonyc]

Greensboro/Greenville Spokane Wichita Bridgeport

South Carolina Stanford Baylor NC State
LVille Texas Iowa UConn

Now all the other teams can come after this. Figuring out where the rest of the teams go is up to the committee. IMO these teams have earned these spots close to home except Texas who would have to travel and lets face it, they would have to travel no matter where they go.

 

[southie]

Not sure Iowa can climb up to a #2 seed; plus, Iowa State, who is fighting for a #2 seed, beat Iowa this season and so that head-to-head win could make a difference.

How Iowa State and Texas do in the upcoming Big 12 tourney will impact their chances at a #2 seed; at least one will be a #3 seed. There will also be an impact on LSU (how has the head-to-head win over Iowa State) as a possible #2 seed.

 

[Plebe]

Not sure Iowa can climb up to a #2 seed; plus, Iowa State, who is fighting for a #2 seed, beat Iowa this season and so that head-to-head win could make a difference.

How Iowa State and Texas do in the upcoming Big 12 tourney will impact their chances at a #2 seed; at least one will be a #3 seed. There will also be an impact on LSU (how has the head-to-head win over Iowa State) as a possible #2 seed.

The last 2 seed might come down to LSU or Iowa. If they do promote Iowa all the way to a #2 seed (they were #14 overall one week ago), they'll be putting inordinate weight on the conference tournament.

Iowa has 3 wins over Indiana, plus wins over Michigan, Nebraska x3 and UCF. Counterposed to that are three Quad 2 losses (at home to IUPUI, Northwestern and Ohio State), plus the blowout loss to Duke.

LSU has wins over Iowa State, Tennessee, Georgia x2, Ole Miss and Kentucky; significant losses are to Arkansas, FGCU, Florida and Kentucky (only the home loss to FGCU is Quad 2).

I suppose it's debatable which team has the better wins, but Iowa definitely has worse losses. We'll see what the committee says.

 

[nomdoux]

I don’t think Crème’s latest Bracketology has quite caught up with present events, which is reflected more accurately by yesterday’s AP rankings IMO. Agree with sentiment here that ESPN’s present bracket projection is imbalanced.

UConn will be a #2 seed in either Wichita or Bridgeport. As a consistent & differentiated Top 3 team all season, I don’t think it’s fair to NC State to face daunting E8 road game v. UConn in CT regional but NCAA has to, or prefers to, separate top 2 ACC teams in overall bracket, I think. If Baylor wins the B12 Tournament, I think they will slot to play Louisville in Wichita, possibly resting the #1 seed there. If Baylor loses before B12 Final, I think they move to Bridgeport #2 seed with UConn going to Wichita to face the weakest #1 matchup, Louisville. Pulling Huskies out of their home state in overall down year makes sense to level playing field & combat bias notion.

 

[visitingcock]

The last 2 seed might come down to LSU or Iowa. If they do promote Iowa all the way to a #2 seed (they were #14 overall one week ago), they'll be putting inordinate weight on the conference tournament.

Iowa has 3 wins over Indiana, plus wins over Michigan, Nebraska x3 and UCF. Counterposed to that are three Quad 2 losses (at home to IUPUI, Northwestern and Ohio State), plus the blowout loss to Duke.

LSU has wins over Iowa State, Tennessee, Georgia x2, Ole Miss and Kentucky; significant losses are to Arkansas, FGCU, Florida and Kentucky (only the home loss to FGCU is Quad 2).

I suppose it's debatable which team has the better wins, but Iowa definitely has worse losses. We'll see what the committee says.

The weight given Iowa is not just from the tournament. They tied or the regular season title. I just don’t see the Committee leaving the top rated Big Ten team out of a two-seed unless they have to. And I don’t see LSU as a “have to” team.

 

[southie]

The last 2 seed might come down to LSU or Iowa. If they do promote Iowa all the way to a #2 seed (they were #14 overall one week ago), they'll be putting inordinate weight on the conference tournament.

Iowa has 3 wins over Indiana, plus wins over Michigan, Nebraska x3 and UCF. Counterposed to that are three Quad 2 losses (at home to IUPUI, Northwestern and Ohio State), plus the blowout loss to Duke.

LSU has wins over Iowa State, Tennessee, Georgia x2, Ole Miss and Kentucky; significant losses are to Arkansas, FGCU, Florida and Kentucky (only the home loss to FGCU is Quad 2).

I suppose it's debatable which team has the better wins, but Iowa definitely has worse losses. We'll see what the committee says.

It's gonna be fun to watch how it all shakes out; a lot of it depends on how Baylor, Iowa State, and Texas (and Oklahoma) perform in the Big 12 tourney.

As I've already mentioned, LSU can't be a #2 seed in South Carolina's region; so, the committed can keep them at the #7 spot from last week's reveal, or drop them all the way to #10; can't see the committee moving them up after a loss against Kentucky in the quarterfinals of the SEC tourney. But, that all depends on other teams above them possible losing this week.

Michigan lost in the same round as did LSU. It would make sense to drop them from the #8 spot. But, the committee will have place them in a different region than Iowa and Maryland.

And, the 4 Big 12 teams currently in the Top 16 (last reveal) have to be placed in different regions; Oklahoma losing at home to Kansas could have already dropped them from the Top 16 (although Creme still has them as a #4 seed as of today). If OU does drop from the Top 16 (they play Kansas again on Friday in a Big 12 quarterfinal game in KC, and possibly Baylor in the semi-finals), then the committee only has to concern themselves with 3 Big 12 teams in the Top 16 (which will give them a bit more flexibility in "scattering" them across the different regions). Assuming both Texas and Iowa State win their quarterfinal games on Friday, their semi-final game on Saturday could be for a #2 seed for the winner, and a #3 seed for the loser.

 

[Plebe]

The weight given Iowa is not just from the tournament. They tied or the regular season title. I just don’t see the Committee leaving the top rated Big Ten team out of a two-seed unless they have to. And I don’t see LSU as a “have to” team.

Why, because it's never happened before? Other than 2018, 2017 ...?

Iowa had already tied for the regular season title when they were deemed the #14 team by the committee. So any improvement to their resume after that occurred in the conference tournament.

 

[Plebe]

It's gonna be fun to watch how it all shakes out; a lot of it depends on how Baylor, Iowa State, and Texas (and Oklahoma) perform in the Big 12 tourney.

As I've already mentioned, LSU can't be a #2 seed in South Carolina's region; so, the committed can keep them at the #7 spot from last week's reveal, or drop them all the way to #10; can't see the committee moving them up after a loss against Kentucky in the quarterfinals of the SEC tourney. But, that all depends on other teams above them possible losing this week.

Michigan lost in the same round as did LSU. It would make sense to drop them from the #8 spot. But, the committee will have place them in a different region than Iowa and Maryland.

And, the 4 Big 12 teams currently in the Top 16 (last reveal) have to be placed in different regions; Oklahoma losing at home to Kansas could have already dropped them from the Top 16 (although Creme still has them as a #4 seed as of today). If OU does drop from the Top 16 (they play Kansas again on Friday in a Big 12 quarterfinal game in KC, and possibly Baylor in the semi-finals), then the committee only has to concern themselves with 3 Big 12 teams in the Top 16 (which will give them a bit more flexibility in "scattering" them across the different regions). Assuming both Texas and Iowa State win their quarterfinal games on Friday, their semi-final game on Saturday could be for a #2 seed for the winner, and a #3 seed for the loser.

The committee decides a "true" overall seeding of teams 1-68. If they decide LSU is the #8 team, that "true" seed number doesn't change. They'd simply have to deviate from the S-curve to assign LSU as the #2 seed in a region other than Greensboro.

In the top 4 seed lines, they don't have the flexibility to move a team up or down from their "true" seed line. (That flexibility applies to seed lines 5 and below.) A team whose true seed is on the 2 line would have to be a #2 seed somewhere.

 

[southie]

The weight given Iowa is not just from the tournament. They tied or the regular season title. I just don’t see the Committee leaving the top rated Big Ten team out of a two-seed unless they have to. And I don’t see LSU as a “have to” team.

Well, they had Michigan as a #2 seed (#8 overall) in last week's reveal. They'll drop to a #3 before LSU does as LSU was #7. Maryland also lost in the quarterfinals; they could drop to a #4 seed. Indiana's runner-up finish in the Big 10 tourney probably sews up a #3 seed for them. Iowa probably a #3 seed at worst, IMO. As Plebe mentioned, hard to see them vaulting up to a #2 seed, but it could happen if some upsets occur in the Big 12 tourney.

 

[southie]

The committee decides a "true" overall seeding of teams 1-68. If they decide LSU is the #8 team, that "true" seed number doesn't change. They'd simply have to deviate from the S-curve to assign LSU as the #2 seed in a region other than Greensboro.

In the top 4 seed lines, they don't have the flexibility to move a team up or down from their "true" seed line. (That flexibility applies to seed lines 5 and below.) A team whose true seed is on the 2 line would have to be a #2 seed somewhere.

Yes, you've told me that before, and I get that. I'm using the numeric seeds simply to illustrate the placement. They could also give LSU a "procedural" bump down to a #3 seed.

 

[visitingcock]

Why, because it's never happened before? Other than 2018, 2017 ...?

Oh, it CAN happen when another team is more worthy . . . But . . . I just don’t see any team being clearly MORE worthy. As worthy? Maybe so.

 

[Plebe]

Yes, you've told me that before, and I get that. I'm using the numeric seeds simply to illustrate the placement. They could also give LSU a "procedural" bump down to a #3 seed.

No, they can't. That's what I was just saying. The "procedural bumps" up or down to a different seed line can only happen for 5 seeds and below.

 

[southie]

No, they can't. That's what I was just saying. The "procedural bumps" up or down to a different seed line can only happen for 5 seeds and below.

Well, that is something I did not know!

So, a #5 seed can be bumped up to a #4 line, but a #4 seed can't be bumped down to a #5 line? How is that even possible? If a #5 seed gets bumped up, then a #4 seed has to get bumped down to make room.

 

[Plebe]

Well, that is something I did not know!

So, a #5 seed can be bumped up to a #4 line, but a #4 seed can't be bumped up to a #5 line? How is that even possible? If a #5 seed gets bumped up, then a #4 seed has to get bumped down to make room.

If the "procedural bumps" are not an option for the top 4 seed lines, then obviously the 5 seeds cannot be bumped up, only down.

 

[Plebe]

Oh, it CAN happen when another team is more worthy . . . But . . . I just don’t see any team being clearly MORE worthy. As worthy? Maybe so.

Go back and look at what happened in 2017 with Maryland getting the top #3 seed and Duke getting the last #2 seed. Maryland was expected by most to get a 2 seed.

If this conference-apportionment method were any kind of priority for the committee as you claim, they would've easily made Maryland a 2 and called it a day.

Here's an article about how "shocked" Maryland (and others) were to be only a 3 seed. Maryland was ranked #4 in the AP at the time.

Fourth-ranked Maryland irked over No. 3 seed in NCAAs

Ranked No. 4 in the country after going 30-2 and being crowned Big Ten champions for a third consecutive year, Maryland was stunned and disappointed to receive a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament

www.usatoday.com

 

[BRS24]

 

[EdSaid]

Who ever the four number 1's are won't matter as much this year. Only two will make it to the final four. This will be a tournament of major upsets. No mailing it in. The ladies that want it more will take it. Bracketologists and all the hype go out the window.

 

[Plebe]

Charlie was interviewed during the first half of the BYU-Gonzaga game, and he said the South Dakota win over SDSU was good news for the other bubble teams.

He also said (as noted already) that he has UConn moving up to #6 overall, as the #2 seed in Bridgeport, on the strength of its blowout win over Villanova.

As for the repercussions of a Gonzaga loss today (Zags are currently leading at halftime), he said if they lose today they're probably an at-large team but far from safe.