Schools' Realignment Worths

[HawkHusky]

That's kind of my point, just a different take on it. If the big fish decide that they want to play by a ridiculous set of rules to shed as many minnows as possible, then there could be very difficult decisions ahead for a few schools. Nobody knows. But I think we can all agree that mass chaos in the P5 structure could benefit UCONN.

Let the chaos begin!!!

 

[Slasher]

Director's Cup ranking is 20% of the formula? Should be Football (75%), Men's BB (20%), everything else (5%). Plus that doesn't consider markets, or saturation of states. USF and UCF really get hurt by their state saturation in the conference realignment game. Whereas Connecticut and Cincinnati are really helped by it. It's somewhat telling but a list that has USF as more desirable than Cincinnati can basically be thrown out the window.

 

[HawkHusky]

Director's Cup ranking is 20% of the formula? Should be Football (75%), Men's BB (20%), everything else (5%). Plus that doesn't consider markets, or saturation of states. USF and UCF really get hurt by their state saturation in the conference realignment game. Whereas Connecticut and Cincinnati are really helped by it. It's somewhat telling but a list that has USF as more desirable than Cincinnati can basically be thrown out the window.

What's really telling is that even though the criteria heavily favored the P5 (by including conference payouts among other things), these schools still finished within the ranks of P5 schools:

BYU, UConn, UCF, San Diego St., USF, New Mexico, Cincinnati, Temple

 

[billybud]

What is missing...and a list of values that we may never be privy to, is the valuation that ESPN and/or Fox puts on one conference realignment team add vs another...

It is a surety that the conferences consult their media contract partners when expanding.

 

[businesslawyer]

Who knows how this all shakes out. It could be nothing and it could be everything. But about this particular point, I think there are plenty of UCONN, Cincinnati and USF fans that would like to point you in direction of Exhibit A: the AAC.

Plenty of UConn fans who get it? If so, exactly what conference did we get thrown out of?

 

[MattMang23]

Hahaha we are ahead of BC.

 

[Dooley]

Plenty of UConn fans who get it? If so, exactly what conference did we get thrown out of?

The Big East was a power conference under the old BCS model. That model changed, using a ridiculous set of criteria (old boys network, who has won the most football games in the past 1-2 seasons, turf wars, etc), and we were essentially a "have" school that has been stuck playing with the "have nots". Heave, thrown out, or not re-invited…it's all the same thing: we lost a seat in a power conference that we previously held (and performed well in).

 

[06029]

What is missing...and a list of values that we may never be privy to, is the valuation that ESPN and/or Fox puts on one conference realignment team add vs another...

It is a surety that the conferences consult their media contract partners when expanding.

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/

Search the ratings by teams. Start with all of the teams that are P5 and bleow Uconn on that list and look at their conference game ratings. Then look at Uconn's, Cinci and USF in conference ratings. Those are some of the numbers that drive value.

 

[UPitt]

What's really telling is that even though the criteria heavily favored the P5 (by including conference payouts among other things), these schools still finished within the ranks of P5 schools:

BYU, UConn, UCF, San Diego St., USF, New Mexico, Cincinnati, Temple

This model was for 2012/2013, so you can include Ville, Cuse, and Pitt with the group above. The majority of the Big East schools fall in the mid 40's to mid 60's using this criteria and could individually add value (or at least not decrease value) to P5 conferences. But as a collective group, the conference was no longer operating at the same level as the other BCS conferences. Could be a combination of things, such as BBall only schools, high percentage of privates, and lacking a cornerstone national brand.

I also found it interesting that the "football school" of Clemson, GT, and Miami were ranked so low. Maybe this is accurate, but if they are so invaluable as compared to the remaining ACC, why does it seem as if they have been making the final decisions along with FSU for the past few years? My feeling is that the criteria used does not favor football enough to show the true value of a school with respect to conference realignment because football has been heavily weighed in recent realignments.

 

[businesslawyer]

The Big East was a power conference under the old BCS model. That model changed, using a ridiculous set of criteria (old boys network, who has won the most football games in the past 1-2 seasons, turf wars, etc), and we were essentially a "have" school that has been stuck playing with the "have nots". Heave, thrown out, or not re-invited…it's all the same thing: we lost a seat in a power conference that we previously held (and performed well in).

No, you totally missed the point (which was your point). You were talking about schools getting thrown out of conferences. You then spoke about UConn as an example.

 

[Dooley]

No, you totally missed the point (which was your point). You were talking about schools getting thrown out of conferences. You then spoke about UConn as an example.

No. I wasn't talking about schools being thrown out of conferences. I was talking about schools voluntarily or involuntarily (I don't care how) leaving the Power grouping if it were to go into chaos because of change. Fishy mentioned something about nobody getting the heave from the power model and I begged to differ because, as we all know, UCONN, USF and Cincinnati were (according to the old power model that changed).

 

[John Greene]

We have the distinction of being the only school thrown into a conference against it's will.

 

[RMoore1999]

We have the distinction of being the only school thrown into a conference against it's will.

We are in an actual conference? News to me....

 

[kingdobbs]

I also found it interesting that the "football school" of Clemson, GT, and Miami were ranked so low. Maybe this is accurate, but if they are so invaluable as compared to the remaining ACC, why does it seem as if they have been making the final decisions along with FSU for the past few years? My feeling is that the criteria used does not favor football enough to show the true value of a school with respect to conference realignment because football has been heavily weighed in recent realignments.

Because the Atlantic Coast Conference by-laws give Florida State exactly as many votes as Clemson, Miami, or Georgia Tech.

 

[John Greene]

We are in an actual conference? News to me....

Saying conference is just easier than calling it what it is since the word would be on the BY list of banned language.

 

[CL82]

Which ESPN channel certainly matters:
0.7
1.04M8:30 PMLouisvilleConnecticutESPN2
3.5
5.73M8:00 PMMichiganUConn
ABC
0.1
92K12:00 PMRutgersUConnESPNU
0.0
56K12:00 PMUConnCincinnati
ESPNU

 

[06029]

Which ESPN channel certainly matters:
0.7
1.04M8:30 PMLouisvilleConnecticutESPN2
3.5
5.73M8:00 PMMichiganUConn
ABC
0.1
92K12:00 PMRutgersUConnESPNU
0.0
56K12:00 PMUConnCincinnati
ESPNU

Yes it does but concentrate on the in conference games on similar outlets and compare the numbers. That is what drives value. Eyeballs.

 

[billybud]

Which ESPN channel certainly matters:
0.7
1.04M8:30 PMLouisvilleConnecticutESPN2
3.5
5.73M8:00 PMMichiganUConn
ABC
0.1
92K12:00 PMRutgersUConnESPNU
0.0
56K12:00 PMUConnCincinnati
ESPNU

One must note that the UConn-Michigan match shared numbers with the Texas-Kansas State match (both on ABC)...the total number cited includes ratings for both games...

 

[BoatShow]

Ahead of 7 or about 11% of the P5. NOT BAD

 

[huskypantz]

Notre Dame #19? Okay. Maybe #19 among pro football teams.

 

[Irishfan]

Notre Dame #19? Okay. Maybe #19 among pro football teams.

I know I'm biased here, but I don't believe that Minnesota, California, and Michigan State are all worth more than ND in CR.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

The Big East was a power conference under the old BCS model. That model changed, using a ridiculous set of criteria (old boys network, who has won the most football games in the past 1-2 seasons, turf wars, etc), and we were essentially a "have" school that has been stuck playing with the "have nots". Heave, thrown out, or not re-invited…it's all the same thing: we lost a seat in a power conference that we previously held (and performed well in).

Not exactly. The Big East stopped being a power conference when too many of the members that played the highest revenue sport (football) left. Any current P-5 conference could suffer a similar fate if something were to happen to cause enough members to leave for another conference. The BE's fatal flaw was that inherit in its design (which was reasonable as it was the initial purpose of the conference) was allowing too much power (relative to other major conferences) to basketball only members. The result of this was the instability that led to the football members being willing participants in raids from other conferences. Our football members were easier pickings solelybecause of the makeup of our conference.

 

[Sportsman5]

I know I'm biased here, but I don't believe that Minnesota, California, and Michigan State are all worth more than ND in CR.

Don't get mad at me because I'm trying to give you an honest answer of why ND has less value than you think in CR. meaning once they join a conference. The argument would be if they don't have their own network, than it would massively decrease their value. The alumni base is small compared to most state schools. People watch Notre dame because they are on TV in prime time against good opponents and the games are VERY VERY hyped by the network. If there's no personal TV network deal and less national games, than that hurts recruiting and massively hurts fan support. On field success goes down. ND is worth a lot because of their independence and TV network/ media attention. If they join a conference they are clearly going to be a big part of it, but will not be the lone shining star that gets all of the attention they do today. As it stands now Notre Dame is top 3 in value, but once the school joins a conference that will decrease to 10-20 range just like other schools with a lot of football tradition. All things being equal I don't think ND is ahead of schools like Michigan, Ohio state, Penn State, Florida State, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Florida, Alabama, LSU, Georgia in terms of value from fan support and overall ability to be competitive year in and year out everything being equal from an exposure stand point. Sure Notre Dame can sell academics and tradition, but a lot of schools have tradition and there are other schools like standford, UCLA, USC and michigan that have similar academics but can offer different college experiences to recruits.

So in conclusion, the eye balls are there because of TV exposure and hype for their games. Recruiting is there because of the coaches being able to sell a ton of national exposure in addition to tradition. Once the exposure and hype is reduced it puts that aspect on a level playing field with all the other colleges. Now on field success and the ability to lure recruits to go to their school over other programs will dictate value to a conference.

As you can see, it will be tough for ND to be a top 10-15 program unless the media keeps hyping them (which could happen), but they will still compete with the 2nd tier of programs in the long term such as Minnesota, Cal, and mich state you mentioned.

 

[Irishfan]

ND has a very small alumni base, but a very large fan base. The student body makes up less than 10% of the stadium but they have sold out every game but one since 1963. I don't think there is another school in the country that has a student body that makes up only 10% of the stadium? I guess there is a chicken or egg situation here , is ND popular because it has it's own network deal, or do they have their own network deal because they are popular. I think they have the network deal because they are popular which is why the Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC all wanted them.

 

[billybud]

Notre Dame has mystique and tradition, for what that's worth.

The school of Rockne, the Four Horsemen thundering under a graying sky, the Gipper .....

No matter their record, Notre Dame is one of the giants of traditional college football...much like Michigan. They command audiences.

The former Big 12 Commissioner on Notre Dame...In a January memo to the Big 12 expansion committee, interim commissioner Chuck Neinas said Notre Dame is the only school the Big 12 could add that would “enhance the Big 12 value for television.

The Big Ten also has thought that ND was the bee's knees...

Though Notre Dame's decision was no surprise, it came as a disappointment to many in the Big Ten who saw the Irish as the one addition that would separate the Big Ten from the other major conferences. As one Big Ten athletic director put it as talks with the Irish heated up last year, "If you put a value on other schools, it may take three to bring you up to what Notre Dame brings."