Schools' Realignment Worths

[Rondogg]

"I get to decide who to root for."

Um, no you don't. Did you, independant of any family loyalties, decide that ND was who you were going to root for? Nope. And rooting for LSU was not an option because of those same family loyalties. You can lie to yourself all you want but you had no control in rooting for ND, that decision was made 100 years ago.

And I also don't care who you root for but at least be honest with yourself as to how you arrived an ND fan, as a lemming.

 

[TerryD]

"I get to decide who to root for."

Um, no you don't. Did you, independant of any family loyalties, decide that ND was who you were going to root for? Nope. And rooting for LSU was not an option because of those same family loyalties. You can lie to yourself all you want but you had no control in rooting for ND, that decision was made 100 years ago.

And I also don't care who you root for but at least be honest with yourself as to how you arrived an ND fan, as a lemming.

Lol, I am a Pittsburgh a Pirates and Steelers fan too. All of my family was/is. They took me to their games when I was a kid, the bastards.

I guess I should be ashamed of my lack of individual consciousness.

Sorry to have hijacked the thread. Later.

 

[Sportsman5]

Sorry, but those are a lot of typed words to be so fundamentally wrong.

Are you trying to convince yourself?

ND was special and popular before television existed and will be for a very long time in the future, conference affiliation or not.

I have seen and heard this kind of stuff my whole life (I am 56), yet ND is still very popular and very financially successful.

ND recruits well, but not because it is on NBC. Funny, I keep hearing that ND's advantage there has been eroded because today "everyone is on TV", yet ND keeps signing highly rated classes.

Most kids talk about academics, tradition and the good feeling they get when they visit the campus when they commit to ND, more so than mentioning the NBC deal.

Those 80,975 folks who travel from all over the country to see ND play don't do so because ND has an NBC contract.

Local fan support has very little to do with ND's ratings, attendance, leading apparel contract or other barometers of success.

Neither does alumni support. It is the support of multi-generational (mostly) Catholic families around the country that pass on their loyalty and love of ND to their kids and grandkids.

My Irish born, emigrant grandfather who ended up a coal miner near Pittsburgh became an ND fan when the Irish beat Army in 1913. Every member of my very large, extended family have been fans of Notre Dame ever since.

100 years, everyone, aunts, uncles, nephews, nieces, cousins, grandchildren, you name it.

My parents went to an ND game for their honeymoon in 1939. My brother started his letters home from South Vietnam in the fall of 1966 with the question "How did the Irish do?"

My nephew serving in Afghanistan last year got ND gear sent to him there to outfit the Afghan National Police he was training and serving with.

His daughter is 16 and is a huge ND fan, despite living in Alabama (next to Fort Benning) for most of her life. They now live near Fort Lewis, Washington and my nephew flies an ND flag from his house and has an ND sticker on his bumper.

Go to any ND home game and check the license plates of the cars in the parking lots. Check the number of private planes from all over the country.

I graduated from LSU Law School. My two sons graduated from LSU's School of Engineering. We don't like LSU athletics, will not travel eight miles to watch LSU play but will drive 1000 miles to attend an ND home game.

My oldest son and I are driving 7 hours from Baton Rouge to San Antonio this weekend to see ND play teams like Santa Clara and Gonzaga in baseball at the annual "Irish Classic" that ND sponsors there every spring.

We will drive past Alex Box Stadium where LSU plays baseball, about eight miles from my house. No interest in seeing the Tigers, but I and my family members drive to San Antonio, Corpus Christi and Houston to see ND baseball.

We get 14-18 family members from Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, Pennsylvania and Maryland to travel to an ND home football game every other year. We meet up and rent a house near the stadium for the weekend.

Families like mine exist all over the country.

That popularity and loyalty is present from coast to coast and would not "fade soon after" if ND joined the ACC in football. It is ingrained.


P.S. You don't think that ABC/ESPN would nationally televise most/all ND football games if it joined the ACC?

You don't think that maybe the ACC would agree to carve out the NBC contract if ND ever agreed to play eight or nine ACC games per year?

so you're biased a tiny bit? you act as if I said they will fall off the face of the earth and then use a ton of anecdotal evidence to prove your point. Of course the people who travel to go to Notre dame games are going to be the ones obsessed with the team. Talking about the fans you meet at the games traveling far distances and being obsessed with the team does not prove that notre dame has more fan support than the top 10 teams in the country. I also never said they don't have great fan support. I said there are very passionate alumni and other fans and that is why they fill the stadium and will compete with almost every school in the country. all i said is they will have a tough time competing with the TOP 10 TEAMS IN THE ENTIRE COUNTRY. What I stated was they will fit nicely in the 10-20 range. There actual production on the field over the last 20 years has not been up to par with the best teams in the country, so that's giving them a ton of props. Their NBC deal helps a lot in recruiting and you have to be insane to deny that. If you truly think that winning championships in the FIRST HALF OF THE 20th CENTURY is more of a reason for a 17 year old committing to notre dame than a ton of national exposure than I am scared for your reasoning ability. Do you seriously think a kid is going to say I went there because I will get a lot of exposure when a local newspaper or recruiting site interviews him? Kids always say the same things when interviewed: tradition, fans, academics etc. They are much less likely to say "there wasn't as much competition at running back at Georgia vs Alabama" or "I wanted to play in a conference that would give me more national exposure". However, those things are MAJOR factors in a decision. I am 100% sure of that. I also stated that the media might continue to give them the same attention they do now and in that case losing the exclusive media deal and getting better access to bowls than any other schools wouldn't hurt them very much. The original point is that a poster was curious why notre dame could be ranked below certain teams like wisconsin in conference realignment. I don't think they would be ranked lower than wisconsin in terms of value, but I did state that they will lose advantages that will take them from a to 3 value team out of the top 10. they are 151-94-1 over the last 20 seasons , so based on on field performance they should be like 30-35 in the country, but instead are like 12. That is due to all of the things we stated including fan support, tradition, academics etc. Every rational college football fan that is not extremely biased would agree with me that they would struggle to stay in the top 10 after 5 years of losing the deal unless the media continued to be biased towards them and gave them more attention simply because they are notre dame even if schools from the pac 12 or big 10 were having better seasons.

I will not argue with you any more because I know I am correct and have the backing of just about every unbiased college football fan.

Here's a little anecdotal evidence to close my point on this discussion. I grew up and currently live in the boston area as I have stated before. My grandfather was irish. I have been to bars in boston during notre dame games that are known as notre dame bars with green themes just for the fans and I have NEVER met a notre dame fan who did not have a direct connection to the university. however, i do know plenty of people who do not like notre dame because they get too much exposure based on very little on field production compared to many other college teams. I also know plenty of people who have watched them on TV because they are on prime time against good opponents, but have no interest in seeing notre dame win over the other team unless they bet money on notre dame. To put it into perspective, imagine getting the national exposure of the Yankees or patriots over the last 20 years but not actually producing on the field. Those teams take a TON of flack nationally because fans hate that the media loves them and gives them too much attention. the difference between those teams and notre dame is that those teams have produced tremendously on the field over the last 20 years. People watch notre dame because it is advertised more than any other game each week and is on at prime time or they watch to root AGAINST them because they are "overrated" due to not producing consistently on the field.

 

[Irishfan]

Yes but nothing as dumb as following a team for 100 years because your family told you to and then claim to be able to think for yourself! I never took a class at UConn (USCe Grad) but they are my favorite team because I chose them, not because someone 100 years told me to.

All USC fans hate ND. So I guess I can't really say that you hate ND or no reason.

 

[WestHartHusk]

Navy makes more money having "home" games with ND at places like Fed Ex Field than if they played at Annapolis. Ask Navy if they decide where to play ND for their home games or if ND puts a gun to their head.

Hey, does Army play Navy at Annapolis for at some other venues?

Are you really arguing that ND doesn't dictate where they will play?

All USC fans hate ND. So I guess I can't really say that you hate ND or no reason.

Just an fyi - he said USCe. Not that well known to most, but he is referring to South Carolina. And further FYI - for UConn fans, that is a tongue-in-cheek reference to Rutgers.

 

[Irishfan]

Jeez...such uninformed posts....75% of the football fans of most big name football schools (Bama, FSU, Notre Dame, USC, Michigan) never spent an hour in class on campus.

They are fans of the school for other reasons...

You and Sportsman5 need to hang out together. You say 75% of ND fans have no connection to the school, while he has never met an ND fan without a direct connection to the school.

 

[btstimpy]

P.S. You don't think that ABC/ESPN would nationally televise most/all ND football games if it joined the ACC?

You don't think that maybe the ACC would agree to carve out the NBC contract if ND ever agreed to play eight or nine ACC games per year?

The answer to both of these is yes. ABC would televise the Notre Dame games nationally, and the John Swofford has already said that Notre Dame football can join the ACC fully without disrupting the NBC contract. The ACC would just not be responsible for TV revenue for the Notre Dame home games, and some sort of reduced split for Notre Dame out of the ACC TV revenue would be worked out just as it is being worked out now for the rest of Notre Dame's programs.

 

[Irishfan]

Are you really arguing that ND doesn't dictate where they will play?



Just an fyi - he said USCe. Not that well known to most, but he is referring to South Carolina. And further FYI - for UConn fans, that is a tongue-in-cheek reference to Rutgers.

Seriously, USCe is South Carolina?

 

[Sportsman5]

The answer to both of these is yes. ABC would televise the Notre Dame games nationally, and the John Swofford has already said that Notre Dame football can join the ACC fully without disrupting the NBC contract. The ACC would just not be responsible for TV revenue for the Notre Dame home games, and some sort of reduced split for Notre Dame out of the ACC TV revenue would be worked out just as it is being worked out now for the rest of Notre Dame's programs.

the argument is more about will the major players in college football allow notre dame to maintain independence and have the same access to the football playoff that they currently have. The trends have been to consolidate and change the system to create a smaller playing field among the elite schools. if there are 4 16 team leagues, than the ACC might be the league that dissolves. It's either the big 12 or acc that will be gone. the game will also be changed when TV revenues from Cable start to go way down. If you are familiar with trends in society and marketing, than you know companies are WAY over paying for TV ads. If cable tv as money was to plummet (which is about when and not if) how would that affect the college football landscape? All interesting topics that do not have a definitive answer right now.

 

[Irishfan]

Are you really arguing that ND doesn't dictate where they will play?

Navy plays their home ND and their home Army games at nfl venues. (except when they play in Ireland.)

 

[BC1978]

so you're biased a tiny bit? you act as if I said they will fall off the face of the earth and then use a ton of anecdotal evidence to prove your point. Of course the people who travel to go to Notre dame games are going to be the ones obsessed with the team. Talking about the fans you meet at the games traveling far distances and being obsessed with the team does not prove that notre dame has more fan support than the top 10 teams in the country. I also never said they don't have great fan support. I said there are very passionate alumni and other fans and that is why they fill the stadium and will compete with almost every school in the country. all i said is they will have a tough time competing with the TOP 10 TEAMS IN THE ENTIRE COUNTRY. What I stated was they will fit nicely in the 10-20 range. There actual production on the field over the last 20 years has not been up to par with the best teams in the country, so that's giving them a ton of props. Their NBC deal helps a lot in recruiting and you have to be insane to deny that. If you truly think that winning championships in the FIRST HALF OF THE 20th CENTURY is more of a reason for a 17 year old committing to notre dame than a ton of national exposure than I am scared for your reasoning ability. Do you seriously think a kid is going to say I went there because I will get a lot of exposure when a local newspaper or recruiting site interviews him? Kids always say the same things when interviewed: tradition, fans, academics etc. They are much less likely to say "there wasn't as much competition at running back at Georgia vs Alabama" or "I wanted to play in a conference that would give me more national exposure". However, those things are MAJOR factors in a decision. I am 100% sure of that. I also stated that the media might continue to give them the same attention they do now and in that case losing the exclusive media deal and getting better access to bowls than any other schools wouldn't hurt them very much. The original point is that a poster was curious why notre dame could be ranked below certain teams like wisconsin in conference realignment. I don't think they would be ranked lower than wisconsin in terms of value, but I did state that they will lose advantages that will take them from a to 3 value team out of the top 10. they are 151-94-1 over the last 20 seasons , so based on on field performance they should be like 30-35 in the country, but instead are like 12. That is due to all of the things we stated including fan support, tradition, academics etc. Every rational college football fan that is not extremely biased would agree with me that they would struggle to stay in the top 10 after 5 years of losing the deal unless the media continued to be biased towards them and gave them more attention simply because they are notre dame even if schools from the pac 12 or big 10 were having better seasons.

I will not argue with you any more because I know I am correct and have the backing of just about every unbiased college football fan.

Here's a little anecdotal evidence to close my point on this discussion. I grew up and currently live in the boston area as I have stated before. My grandfather was irish. I have been to bars in boston during notre dame games that are known as notre dame bars with green themes just for the fans and I have NEVER met a notre dame fan who did not have a direct connection to the university. however, i do know plenty of people who do not like notre dame because they get too much exposure based on very little on field production compared to many other college teams. I also know plenty of people who have watched them on TV because they are on prime time against good opponents, but have no interest in seeing notre dame win over the other team unless they bet money on notre dame. To put it into perspective, imagine getting the national exposure of the Yankees or patriots over the last 20 years but not actually producing on the field. Those teams take a TON of flack nationally because fans hate that the media loves them and gives them too much attention. the difference between those teams and notre dame is that those teams have produced tremendously on the field over the last 20 years. People watch notre dame because it is advertised more than any other game each week and is on at prime time or they watch to root AGAINST them because they are "overrated" due to not producing consistently on the field.

FWIW, I think you are missing the core reality about sports coverage in the media by conflating how good or, in this case, how "elite" a team is with how much coverage/exposure they get in the market.

It is pretty evident that ND has wide brand recognition, and they are are very profitable from a business perspective - and they continue to be so regardless of their performance on the field. NBC agreed to a unique contract with them because they have determined that ND is best able to attract the coast-to-coast viewers on a weekly basis that they require. If that was not the case, they would not have done so as I am quite sure they are not in business to lose money. Why do you think municipalities are so excited when they are able to land a ND game as part of their Shamrock Series? As long as ND continues to have that kind of market pull, they will continue to enjoy lucrative marketing and television deals.

It always amazes me that people get upset by this. On-the-field success is a factor, but the ability to pull in ratings and advertising dollars is what it is all about.

IMO, NBC doesn't give a crap about how many FB fans may "hate" ND - as long as they watch (which the ratings confirm, they do!); that's what will drive the bus.

Does ND leverage this marketing/brand exposure to its maximum advantage? Of course they do!! You don't think Uconn, or Boston College, or FSU, or any other school wouldn't do the EXACT same thing??.

With all due respect, methinks there is a bit of hypocrisy in evidence in this thread.

 

[BC1978]

the argument is more about will the major players in college football allow notre dame to maintain independence and have the same access to the football playoff that they currently have. The trends have been to consolidate and change the system to create a smaller playing field among the elite schools. if there are 4 16 team leagues, than the ACC might be the league that dissolves. It's either the big 12 or acc that will be gone. the game will also be changed when TV revenues from Cable start to go way down. If you are familiar with trends in society and marketing, than you know companies are WAY over paying for TV ads. If cable tv as money was to plummet (which is about when and not if) how would that affect the college football landscape? All interesting topics that do not have a definitive answer right now.

Interesting comments. IMO, though, if your scenario does come true, the conferences with the most to lose might be the ones with separate conference networks. IMO, if the cost of cable to the consumer continues to rise, it is not hard to envision a scenario where consumers in a given market(s) (the majority of which are NOT hard core sports fans of any given team) might revolt over having to pay an extra $12-15 a month - either as an add-on or part of the basic package - just to watch a team/conference that they may only passively follow. Sure, the hard core fans will probably pay the extra dollars, but those numbers could fall well short of the current rosy projections of increased fan viewership often bandied about on boards like this. We shall see.

 

[billybud]

You and Sportsman5 need to hang out together. You say 75% of ND fans have no connection to the school, while he has never met an ND fan without a direct connection to the school.

Yeah...hang out.

Uh huh. With a guy who doesn't use paragraphs?

What would my sainted mother say?

 

[Sportsman5]

Interesting comments. IMO, though, if your scenario does come true, the conferences with the most to lose might be the ones with separate conference networks. IMO, if the cost of cable to the consumer continues to rise, it is not hard to envision a scenario where consumers in a given market(s) (the majority of which are NOT hard core sports fans of any given team) might revolt over having to pay an extra $12-15 a month - either as an add-on or part of the basic package - just to watch a team/conference that they may only passively follow. Sure, the hard core fans will probably pay the extra dollars, but those numbers could fall well short of the current rosy projections of increased fan viewership often bandied about on boards like this. We shall see.

yes. Everything will change drastically. Advertising money is starting to go to and will continue to go to other things than cable TV. The smart business executives realize that people watch TV with at least one device that distracts them during commercials: phone, tablet, laptop. Many people are watching TV with more than 1 of these devices. This is especially true with the 18-35 demographic, which is prime for many sports advertisers. Ads are probably worth between 10-20% of what companies are currently paying because they are reaching only a tiny fraction of people even compared to 10 years ago. This is very set in stone, but what is up in the air is how everything will settle out and will the cable companies adapt and will college sports still pull in similar advertising dollars. I know that money will decrease to some degree, it's just a matter of if it will plummet to the point where it drastically changes the college football landscape. At this point it is unknown how those advertising dollars will be recouped.

and to the point above I do agree that there are a lot of people that watch Notre dame for various reasons, but when they lose the TV deal then many will stop watching is my point. Some will pay extra to watch Notre Dame play no doubt and will buy merchandise and tickets and that is why they will retain a ton of value. As I said to the original guy who tried to tear me apart, it's not as if I said they will fall off the face of the earth by any means. For a school with a tiny alumni base relatively speaking they will be able to add a lot of value in various ways due to many factors we keep mentioning. However, there might be some California, Texas, BIG 10 or SEC schools that have more value.

 

[Irishfan]

My biggest issue with the list of the most valuable teams given in the original post is that it was prepared by a Michigan fan and guess what, Michigan is the most valuable team. Also 6 of the top 15 teams just happen to be from the Big Ten. Alabama doesn't make the top 20, but Minnesota, california, and Michigan State do. I just don't see this as accurately giving the value of these top teams.

 

[TerryD]

yes. Everything will change drastically. Advertising money is starting to go to and will continue to go to other things than cable TV. The smart business executives realize that people watch TV with at least one device that distracts them during commercials: phone, tablet, laptop. Many people are watching TV with more than 1 of these devices. This is especially true with the 18-35 demographic, which is prime for many sports advertisers. Ads are probably worth between 10-20% of what companies are currently paying because they are reaching only a tiny fraction of people even compared to 10 years ago. This is very set in stone, but what is up in the air is how everything will settle out and will the cable companies adapt and will college sports still pull in similar advertising dollars. I know that money will decrease to some degree, it's just a matter of if it will plummet to the point where it drastically changes the college football landscape. At this point it is unknown how those advertising dollars will be recouped.

and to the point above I do agree that there are a lot of people that watch Notre dame for various reasons, but when they lose the TV deal then many will stop watching is my point. Some will pay extra to watch Notre Dame play no doubt and will buy merchandise and tickets and that is why they will retain a ton of value. As I said to the original guy who tried to tear me apart, it's not as if I said they will fall off the face of the earth by any means. For a school with a tiny alumni base relatively speaking they will be able to add a lot of value in various ways due to many factors we keep mentioning. However, there might be some California, Texas, BIG 10 or SEC schools that have more value.

Sorry for coming on too strong, but I have seen these types of statements about ND losing fans, etc... for a half century and they never come to pass.

Bottom line, I think that your point is moot because (in my opinion) ND is not going to be forced to join a conference and is not in danger of losing the NBC deal, which they just extended for ten more years (2015-2025).

IF ND has to join a conference, it will be the ACC. That conference will allow ND to keep a separate NBC TV deal even as a full member.

 

[billybud]

In the 16 years of the BCS Champions, the only team north of Tennessee to win an NC was Ohio State....and some will say on a late flag, thrown as Miami ran out on the field with the win.

I don't know about "value"....what we do know is where the football has been dominant. I'm not an SEC fan, but they play very good football.

 

[buckaineer]

Here is a more accurate evaluations of schools values--
Here is a top fifty study from the wall street journal:

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304887104579302752525141772

 

[Sportsman5]

Sorry for coming on too strong, but I have seen these types of statements about ND losing fans, etc... for a half century and they never come to pass.

Bottom line, I think that your point is moot because (in my opinion) ND is not going to be forced to join a conference and is not in danger of losing the NBC deal, which they just extended for ten more years (2015-2025).

IF ND has to join a conference, it will be the ACC. That conference will allow ND to keep a separate NBC TV deal even as a full member.

What if the acc gets picked apart in conference realignment though? that could easily happen. What if you have to be a part of a major conference to participate in the college football playoff in the future? that could also easily happen.

What if cable tv advertising revenue plummets or becomes almost nonexistent? People will advertise through google glass and in the not too distant future contact lenses that have a similar purpose. we will see advertisements and coupons through our cars once we have fully autonomous cars. that's already here, but autonomous cars will be everyone with in 15 years. In fact many of the smartest and most informed people in the world think it will be less than that, but it will be cheaper to have a fully autonomous car than not have one in 15 years. What about when our houses are interactive and we can get advertisements and coupons about products we want everywhere. The technology is already here for most of these things and will continue to get better and better. Everything becomes cheaper, smaller, and more powerful. The same technology in the iPhone would have cost about 3.5 million dollars in the early 1990s.
There is no way TV advertising is going to exist once the current executives retire and other avenues for advertising continue to grow and prosper. that means brands will be paying all of their advertising dollars to companies like google, apple, samsung, tesla, toyota, and brands that don't even exist today in order to reach us consumers. Even today it's a joke what advertisers are paying for TV and outdoor media. We do everything during commercial breaks except actually watch the commercials. The only conceivable way for NBC to make that contract even close to worth it will be to put logos and active advertisements on the jerseys and football field. Sponsors will have to be announced and read by the announcers during the game between plays and things like that. That could happen, but I don't think the fans would allow much more than what is already being done without becoming outraged. a lot of the national TV money comes from casual fans watching games and not die hard fans. If the game becomes cluttered and disrupted with advertising a lot of casual fans will become annoyed and stop watching. I think a lot of casual fans will get rid of their cable and use things like netflix and hulu for watching TV shows. they will go to bars and public venues to watch the most important and prime time games of the year. You can say goodbye to MANY cable tv subscriptions over the next 10-15 years. In fact a huge percent of people under 30 currently do not have cable TV. that trend will continue especially with things like apple TV and google chromecast where you can stream videos from youtube, netflix, and hulu over the HD tv.

This will cause a major shift in how college football is run and organized. The teams that can compete through jersey and ticket sales will be able to compete at the highest level and the ones relying a lot on TV revenue will have to drop out. that's why I think the conferences will continue to consolidate and anyone who wants to compete for the national championship will be forced by rule to join one of those conferences.

 

[billybud]

Branding will always be important.

If you have a team that people like to watch, you have a product, no matter the delivery technology.

I already watch some ACC football and baseball by streaming...and I expect that technology will grow in the future.

But, no matter which way technology goes, if the branding is there, people will pay to see. And there will be folks who will buy the rights and market that brand.

 

[TerryD]

What if the acc gets picked apart in conference realignment though? that could easily happen. What if you have to be a part of a major conference to participate in the college football playoff in the future? that could also easily happen.

What if cable tv advertising revenue plummets or becomes almost nonexistent? People will advertise through google glass and in the not too distant future contact lenses that have a similar purpose. we will see advertisements and coupons through our cars once we have fully autonomous cars. that's already here, but autonomous cars will be everyone with in 15 years. In fact many of the smartest and most informed people in the world think it will be less than that, but it will be cheaper to have a fully autonomous car than not have one in 15 years. What about when our houses are interactive and we can get advertisements and coupons about products we want everywhere. The technology is already here for most of these things and will continue to get better and better. Everything becomes cheaper, smaller, and more powerful. The same technology in the iPhone would have cost about 3.5 million dollars in the early 1990s.
There is no way TV advertising is going to exist once the current executives retire and other avenues for advertising continue to grow and prosper. that means brands will be paying all of their advertising dollars to companies like google, apple, samsung, tesla, toyota, and brands that don't even exist today in order to reach us consumers. Even today it's a joke what advertisers are paying for TV and outdoor media. We do everything during commercial breaks except actually watch the commercials. The only conceivable way for NBC to make that contract even close to worth it will be to put logos and active advertisements on the jerseys and football field. Sponsors will have to be announced and read by the announcers during the game between plays and things like that. That could happen, but I don't think the fans would allow much more than what is already being done without becoming outraged. a lot of the national TV money comes from casual fans watching games and not die hard fans. If the game becomes cluttered and disrupted with advertising a lot of casual fans will become annoyed and stop watching. I think a lot of casual fans will get rid of their cable and use things like netflix and hulu for watching TV shows. they will go to bars and public venues to watch the most important and prime time games of the year. You can say goodbye to MANY cable tv subscriptions over the next 10-15 years. In fact a huge percent of people under 30 currently do not have cable TV. that trend will continue especially with things like apple TV and google chromecast where you can stream videos from youtube, netflix, and hulu over the HD tv.

This will cause a major shift in how college football is run and organized. The teams that can compete through jersey and ticket sales will be able to compete at the highest level and the ones relying a lot on TV revenue will have to drop out. that's why I think the conferences will continue to consolidate and anyone who wants to compete for the national championship will be forced by rule to join one of those conferences.

What if concussion injuries end football? What if aliens invaded? What if Texas joins the ACC as a partial member in 7 or 8 or 12 years. I can dream up "what if" and " may happen" scenarios, too.

IF the ACC is raided, ND could stay there as a partial member and the conference can backfill. ND would still remain independent.

There is no way that ND will be left out of the playoff system. That is just an anti-ND fan pipe dream.

ND puts 80,795 people in the seats for every home game. They just announced a $400 million stadium expansion/addition/renovation.

The Irish just signed a $9 million/year deal (for ten years) with Under Armour, the highest apparel deal in sports history.

By your own stated criteria, ND should be just fine, then. There are their ticket and jersey sale revenues.

ND is already working on digital platforms. It is Jack Swarbrick's pet project. ND will be in the forefront of the new technology, not at the tail end of it.

I think that the speculation of ND's independence ending or of eroding fan support are just that, baseless speculation.

 

[IMind]

The only stick the rest of the P5 schools have to get ND into a conference would be to limit access to the high profile bowl games and playoffs to conference teams. They don't seem willing to do that... so ND isn't joining a conference. They were closer to joining 10 years ago than they are now. It pains me to say this, but they've made some smart smart moves over the last decade.

 

[buckaineer]

The only stick the rest of the P5 schools have to get ND into a conference would be to limit access to the high profile bowl games and playoffs to conference teams. They don't seem willing to do that... so ND isn't joining a conference. They were closer to joining 10 years ago than they are now. It pains me to say this, but they've made some smart smart moves over the last decade.

If for some reason the ACC loses more members in the future, this would put ND in position to make a choice about conference membership or not having access to major bowls and playoffs. Their playoff access is already a big ? They can't win a conference and conference membership is going to factor heavily in picking the four participants.

 

[billybud]

If the committee really does give weight to winning your conference championship (as has been stated), Notre Dame might have a difficult time making the final four.

Five P5 conference champs...four slots...and then Notre Dame.

 

[buckaineer]

From the official playoff site:

Among the many factors the committee will consider are win-loss record, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and conference championships won.