Schools' Realignment Worths

[HawkHusky]

A poster named bigblueblindness compiled a list of every FBS school's worth in realignment. He's done multiple charts with different criteria and different weighted categories. Ultimately a few things hold true no matter how the numbers are crunched.

They all seem to indicate the top non-P5 expansion targets are BYU, UCONN, and UCF. Those 3 teams are also more valuable than multiple teams already in a P5 conference. Yes, the data may have flaws, but it more or less confirms what most people think to be true. I found it interesting.

From http://csnbbs.com/thread-673666.html:

Now that the 2012-13 revenue figures have been released by the NCAA, I slapped together some of the facts and figures that we toss around about a school's worth in realignment and have tweaked it based on other's suggestions. I have taken all of the FBS schools and given them a sliding scale (1-129) score in the following categories:

1. Undergraduate population (indicator of alumni quantity and current ability to support) - 10%

2. Academics - Combined scores of U.S. News and World Report, ARWU, and CMUP to give a decent indicator of undergraduate, graduate, and research capabilities - 20%

3. Director's Cup ranking - A good overview of the health of the entire athletic department. - 20%

4. Following - 75% football attendance and 25% men's basketball attendance. - 20%

5. Funding - 75% gross athletic revenue and 25% university endowment - 30%

The glaring item missing is TV markets, but I agree with JRSec that the future of major realignment will be value, not market potential. Also missing is the subjective "legacy" and "future potential". This is just an indicator of where things now stand.

1 Michigan
2 Texas
3 Ohio State
4 Florida
5 Penn State
6 Wisconsin
7 Texas A&M
8 UCLA
9 Georgia
10 Washington
11 Minnesota
12 California
13 Southern Cal
14 Michigan State
15 North Carolina
16 LSU
17 Oklahoma
18 Florida State
19 Notre Dame
20 Tennessee
21 Stanford
22 Alabama
23 Nebraska
24 Iowa
25 Kentucky
26 Purdue
27 Illinois
28 Virginia
29 Indiana
30 Arkansas
31 Auburn
32 Virginia Tech
33 South Carolina
34 Arizona
35 Arizona State
36 NC State
37 Duke
38 Oregon
39 Missouri
40 Maryland
41 Iowa State
42 Kansas
43 Northwestern
44 Oklahoma State
45 BYU
46 Louisville
47 Colorado
48 Vanderbilt
49 Rutgers
50 Syracuse
51 Texas Tech
52 Pittsburgh
53 Georgia Tech
54 Clemson
55 West Virginia
56 Miami
57 Kansas State
58 Baylor
59 Utah
60 Connecticut
61 Mississippi State
62 Central Florida
63 Oregon State
64 TCU
65 Mississippi
66 San Diego State
67 South Florida
68 Wake Forest
69 Boston College
70 New Mexico
71 Cincinnati
72 Temple
73 Washington State
74 Hawaii
75 Houston
76 Colorado State
77 Rice
78 Massachusetts
79 SMU
80 East Carolina
81 Buffalo
82 Tulsa
83 Memphis
84 Air Force
85 Old Dominion
86 UNLV
87 Tulane
88 Navy
89 Boise State
90 Army
91 Ohio
92 Utah State
93 UAB
94 Miami -OH
95 Akron
96 Wyoming
97 Fresno State
98 Kent State
99 North Texas
100 UTEP
101 UTSA
102 Central Michigan
103 Nevada
104 LA-Lafayette
105 Western Kentucky
106 Florida Intl
107 San Jose State
108 MTSU
109 New Mexico State
110 Toledo
111 Texas State
112 Appalachian State
113 Western Michigan
114 Northern Illinois
115 UNC-Charlotte
116 Marshall
117 Georgia State
118 Bowling Green
119 Idaho
120 Georgia Southern
121 Ball State
122 Arkansas State
123 South Alabama
124 Florida Atlantic
125 Southern Miss
126 Eastern Michigan
127 Louisiana Tech
128 Troy
129 LA-Monroe

For those wondering, the average conference scores are below. This shows where teams will be as of next year (e.g. Louisville in ACC, Rutgers/Maryland in Big 10):

Big 10 - 21.5
SEC - 29.28
PAC - 34.4
ACC - 42.2
Big 12 - 43.1
AAC - 75.5
MWC - 86.6
MAC - 103.1
CUSA - 105.7
Sun Belt - 117.6

 

[upstater]

Two quick problems though I'm sure the problems are many.

1. What does the endowment have to do with anything?
2. If you're not going to back out conference TV revenue, then the whole exercise is pointless.

 

[HawkHusky]

Two quick problems though I'm sure the problems are many.

1. What does the endowment have to do with anything?
2. If you're not going to back out conference TV revenue, then the whole exercise is pointless.

Those were both brought up. Like I said, the lists have been reworked using all kinds of different data. I just posted the most recent one done. Even using the different criteria, it pretty much came out with the same result of BYU, UCONN, and UCF being the most valuable G5 schools.

 

[NickyNewark]

Interesting, any school below 72 or so is in big trouble but anyone in the top 65 appears safely destined to make the "cut" in the "endgame" !?! IMO... C'mon P5, lets start the musical chairs so we can relax.

 

[Dooley]

The more of these types of lists I see, the more frustrated I get with UCONN's current conference standing.

 

[upstater]

Interesting, any school below 72 or so is in big trouble but anyone in the top 65 appears safely destined to make the "cut" in the "endgame" !?! IMO... C'mon P5, lets start the musical chairs so we can relax.

I would not be so certain of this. To evaluate a school, you back out the conference TV money and see how the school stands on its own.

 

[HawkHusky]

I would not be so certain of this. To evaluate a school, you back out the conference TV money and see how the school stands on its own.

I agree and would like to see the list without conference payout involved. The list as it stands is more like "how much is your school currently worth" rather than it pertaining to realignment value. Still thought it was interesting to see this kind of data compiled.

 

[Hoophound]

It isn't hard to reconfigure the list by backing out conference tv revenue even if you just ballpark it. Nonetheless, we would shoot way up the list if it was adjusted for that.

 

[NickyNewark]

I would not be so certain of this. To evaluate a school, you back out the conference TV money and see how the school stands on its own.

Then maybe you'd have to "take" Fresno and Boise St ahead of say a Temple U or am I understanding it backwards? Actually I'd prefer Temple than some of these lesser academic school's!

 

[NickyNewark]

It isn't hard to reconfigure the list by backing out conference tv revenue even if you just ballpark it. Nonetheless, we would shoot way up the list if it was adjusted for that.

using any criteria UConn should be top 50 IMO.

 

[upstater]

Then maybe you'd have to "take" Fresno and Boise St ahead of say a Temple U or am I understanding it backwards? Actually I'd prefer Temple than some of these lesser academic school's!

Just assume a $20m bump for schools in a P5 conference over those not in one. So, Baylor is ahead of UConn. if you back out conference revs, suddenly UConn skyrockets ahead of them.

 

[NickyNewark]

So that explains a Iowa St or Baylor having such a high rating? Thanks Upstater for breaking it down for me!!

 

[Dooley]

Upstater is spot on. If you add P5 TV revenue to UCONN's weight, we skyrocket a lot of schools. This is probably a big reason why our local private school rivals (BC, Fruit) with smaller revenue are afraid of playing on equal footing as UCONN. The longer they can shut out UCONN, the bigger "buffer" they get by playing in an unbalanced conference situation. That helps them recruit with UCONN. For example, during the time that UCONN played on equal footing with the Fruitcakes, we clearly surpassed them in Big East football (more bowls, more conference championships, better W/L record) while winning several national basketball championships. BC was smart to get out of the Big East when they did because they saw the writing on the wall. Conte Forum was Gampel North for UCONN/BC games and they clearly couldn't compete with UCONN basketball. UCONN had a pretty good crowd go up to Alumni Field to watch the one football game we played up there (the game was lousy thanks to fumbling the opening kickoff and Nuzie hitting the uprights on extra point tries) and they knew that if UCONN was in the same conference, Alumni Field would become Rentschler Field North one day.

UCONN in the B1G really has an opportunity to explode similar to what Penn State did (minus the disgusting Paterno/Sandusky regime). Until then, I'd love to see UCONN begin to throw money around to create unfair advantages over their G5 counterparts. I think we've begun to do that already with increasing the football Assistants Coaching Pool, but I'd like to see more. Now would be a great time to announce stadium expansion plans, added uniform options to maximize merchandise revenue, and look into the idea of signing an extended exclusive contract with somebody like SNY to program more sports (including sports that typically don't get TV time like hockey). If we're stuck in the G5, we might as well take on the Yankees/Red Sox role and outspend everybody. Maybe enough schools will complain about unfair revenue advantages that UCONN has and we would have to go up!

 

[NickyNewark]

Dooley, it seems you think a lot like me(hope its a compliment) with the way CR has shaken down and some of you're proposed remedies? The day of the private school dominance(outside of PSU) in the East is long gone IMO!!

 

[Dooley]

Dooley, it seems you think a lot like me(hope its a compliment) with the way CR has shaken down and some of you're proposed remedies? The day of the private school dominance(outside of PSU) in the East is long gone IMO!!

I think that if the P5 does decide to split, there will be a fair amount of smaller privates (ex - Wake) that will begin to weigh whether or not it is still advantageous for them to try to compete against other, larger in-conference mates that have a much larger revenue stream. I think some of those smaller privates will decide that it is not and may drop out. That would create ample room for UCONN to hop in.

 

[UConn Dan]

Warde just needs to beat the drum that we may not be in a so-called power 5 conference but we are a power 5 school right jn the middle of the pack with those schools and we will continue to operate like we are a big boy and keep winning and keep building.

 

[bobbyinaz]

I think that if the P5 does decide to split, there will be a fair amount of smaller privates (ex - Wake) that will begin to weigh whether or not it is still advantageous for them to try to compete against other, larger in-conference mates that have a much larger revenue stream. I think some of those smaller privates will decide that it is not and may drop out. That would create ample room for UCONN to hop in.

No school will choose to walk away from $20+MM in revenue by leaving a P5 conference. Even if they find it hard to compete with schools with bigger revenues, they have too much existing athletic department infrastructure in place to make a decision like that.

If a school like Wake were to make that decision part of the announcement would include dropping 10 or more sports immediately.

UConn needs to hope for expansion of P5 conferences, not waiting for schools to drop out

 

[Chin Diesel]

Warde just needs to beat the drum that we may not be in a so-called power 5 conference but we are a power 5 school right jn the middle of the pack with those schools and we will continue to operate like we are a big boy and keep winning and keep building.

I think he's been doing a good job of pushing UConn being a P5 school in every measure. No great, not perfect, but he's been consistent with that message.

 

[Fishy]

I think that if the P5 does decide to split, there will be a fair amount of smaller privates (ex - Wake) that will begin to weigh whether or not it is still advantageous for them to try to compete against other, larger in-conference mates that have a much larger revenue stream. I think some of those smaller privates will decide that it is not and may drop out. That would create ample room for UCONN to hop in.

This is a line of thought that needs to shrivel up, die and never be mentioned here again.

NO ONE IS GOING TO GIVE UP A SEAT IN THE P5.

 

[Dooley]

No school will choose to walk away from $20+MM in revenue by leaving a P5 conference. Even if they find it hard to compete with schools with bigger revenues, they have too much existing athletic department infrastructure in place to make a decision like that.

If a school like Wake were to make that decision part of the announcement would include dropping 10 or more sports immediately.

UConn needs to hope for expansion of P5 conferences, not waiting for schools to drop out

I get what you're saying and agree, but nobody knows how this is all going to shake out. Maybe there will be a set of minimum criteria introduced that would make it very difficult on the smaller privates? Nobody knows. But yes, UCONN's best chances out of the AAC will be because we are either invited to the B1G or the P5 decide on sweeping changes that would result in mass chaos.

 

[Dooley]

This is a line of thought that needs to shrivel up, die and never be mentioned here again.

NO ONE IS GOING TO GIVE UP A SEAT IN THE P5.

Why? Do you know what is going to happen in the next few years? All I'm saying is that it might not be completely voluntary. Look at us, for example. We had a seat in the Big East, were performing very well and were well on the way of becoming the northeast's premier collegiate athletic university. Today, we are in the AAC while community colleges and smaller privates are getting the call ahead of UCONN.

 

[Fishy]

Why? Do you know what is going to happen in the next few years?

Yes.

It's never happening - no one is voluntarily leaving the power conferences for browner pastures. No one is being heaved from one of the power conferences.

 

[kingdobbs]

I think that if the P5 does decide to split, there will be a fair amount of smaller privates (ex - Wake) that will begin to weigh whether or not it is still advantageous for them to try to compete against other, larger in-conference mates that have a much larger revenue stream. I think some of those smaller privates will decide that it is not and may drop out. That would create ample room for UCONN to hop in.

It won't be the privates deciding to drop out.

It will be the big fish deciding they don't need the minnows anymore.

 

[Dooley]

No one is being heaved from one of the power conferences.

Who knows how this all shakes out. It could be nothing and it could be everything. But about this particular point, I think there are plenty of UCONN, Cincinnati and USF fans that would like to point you in direction of Exhibit A: the AAC.

 

[Dooley]

It won't be the privates deciding to drop out.

It will be the big fish deciding they don't need the minnows anymore.

That's kind of my point, just a different take on it. If the big fish decide that they want to play by a ridiculous set of rules to shed as many minnows as possible, then there could be very difficult decisions ahead for a few schools. Nobody knows. But I think we can all agree that mass chaos in the P5 structure could benefit UCONN.