Schools' Realignment Worths

[IMind]

I absolute 100% am sure that if there is a 0-1 loss Notre Dame team available they will be in the playoff. I also would bet that a 1-2 loss Notre Dame gets into a high profile contract bowl over 1-2 loss (non-championship team) in the ACC. The only place not having a conference championship MIGHT hurt them is when looking at the non-playoff old BCS bowls.

 

[buckaineer]

I absolute 100% am sure that if there is a 0-1 loss Notre Dame team available they will be in the playoff. I also would bet that a 1-2 loss Notre Dame gets into a high profile contract bowl over 1-2 loss (non-championship team) in the ACC. The only place not having a conference championship MIGHT hurt them is when looking at the non-playoff old BCS bowls.

An undefeated ND has a strong chance depending on if there aren't four conference champs undefeated. ND has gone undefeated once over the last two decades or so. If they have one loss, they are going to be up against some schools with better strength of schedule and a conference championship among other things. Remember that ND will have five games against ACC competition--well the league has been rated the lowest for strength over the BCS era and were fifth again last year. ND isn't playing FSU every year. They will also have a game with Navy every year. They eliminated Michigan, who normally beat them. They'll keep Purdue, that's a winnable game most years. They are going to have to schedule more great programs and they won't get them to play only at ND or at a neutral site. It will be difficult to have good strength of schedule and win games.

With the playoff bowls outside the playoffs and Rose, Sugar and the lesser Orange that they have a two year chance at, ND will be competing with BIG 12, SEC, Big Ten and Pac 12 schools for that playoff bowl. No guarantees they will be selected there unless the committee has them in the top 12.

 

[Stray_Dog]

I have a 100 year family affiliation with ND. I can think for myself just fine, thanks.

I don't think that "affiliation" is limited to alumni status. Does UConn reject all non-alumni fans? Bar them from the games? Refuse their ticket and apparel money? Blackout their televisions?

My guess is that UConn would love to have the number and geographic location of those "unaffiliated" fans that ND does.

I don't believe in states' rights, which I think died at Appomattox. I never got the whole "state pride" thing. I was born and raised in Pennsylvania, but always disliked Joe Paterno and Penn State, even way back to about 1968 or so.

I prefer state rights but what does that have to do with football? You like ND, a lot of UConn husky fans see ND as the number one contributing factor that has us in the AAC. In defense of that statement, I don't think ND intended this to be the case but it is what it is. The one thing ND has going for it in my opinion, they are always the under-dog...based solely on the size of the institution compared to the size of the institution they play. And state pride??? Hmm, keep in mind this is probably a carry over from high school. I still have pride in the high school I went to. I have an adapted state where you should be receiving more information on that team than other teams within your local media! So that being said, on a local level, you're likely to run into discussion involving your local institutions. As for national brand...That is where in New England, I like many others view the professional NFL teams. The fact that ND has alumni all over the country is great for ND! But if I want more detail about a football team than I will be reading and listening to stories about the local football team. Of course this is just my opinion...and you may not agree with it.

 

[btstimpy]

I absolute 100% am sure that if there is a 0-1 loss Notre Dame team available they will be in the playoff. I also would bet that a 1-2 loss Notre Dame gets into a high profile contract bowl over 1-2 loss (non-championship team) in the ACC. The only place not having a conference championship MIGHT hurt them is when looking at the non-playoff old BCS bowls.

If the bowls were making the selection, you would be absolutely correct. Every one of the bowls would select Notre Dame over other choices. BUT, there is a committee now like the basketball tournament has. It even has Condi Rice on it. They don't have the same worries as the bowls do. They are actually going to look at record, strength of schedule, and conference championships when selecting. Sellng bowl tickets will be someone else's job after they select.

 

[buckaineer]

It is very doubtful anyone in a P5 conference is going to decide to not be in one of those conferences, or to give up football altogether or something along those lines. Even the ACC schools are making too much money to just give it up. The conferences aren't going to throw anyone out.

At this point its very difficult to see when or where a UConn might get a chance to move up.

Perhaps the Big Ten would decide they can get into the NYC/NY State markets on a lower cable tier by adding UConn. They have Rutgers which has been shown to have the highest NYC ratings, but they don't have SU yet--might make sense to add both one day.

The ACC could grow, but unless ND joins that conference everyone's revenues will decrease as bowl payouts, etc. are stretched thinner. As for ND joining a conference-not likely. If on the other hand the ACC loses more schools then UConn has got to be the first choice despite BC's objections--which would likely dissolve if other schools left.

The BIG 12 is an extreme longshot I think for UConn because of the extreme distance. UConn has nice academic credentials and basketball of course has been very good, but football needs to be reinvigorated and the stadium like Cincinnati's is on the small side for a P5 conference other than the ACC. The BIG 12 isn't going to expand unless the Big Ten and SEC do.

 

[buckaineer]

If the bowls were making the selection, you would be absolutely correct. Every one of the bowls would select Notre Dame over other choices. BUT, there is a committee now like the basketball tournament has. It even has Condi Rice on it. They don't have the same worries as the bowls do. They are actually going to look at record, strength of schedule, and conference championships when selecting. Sellng bowl tickets will be someone else's job after they select.

Also, in order to make one of the Fiesta, Chik-Fil-A or Cotton you will need to be in the top 12 of one of the power conferences. One spot in those bowls will go to the best of the G5 and when the Sugar, Rose or Cotton are playoff bowls, the champion of the ACC and the best available from the BIG 12, SEC, Big 10 and Pac 12 will be placed in the Fiesta, Chik-Fil-A or Cotton.

 

[billybud]

Also, in order to make one of the Fiesta, Chik-Fil-A or Cotton you will need to be in the top 12 of one of the power conferences. One spot in those bowls will go to the best of the G5 and when the Sugar, Rose or Cotton are playoff bowls, the champion of the ACC and the best available from the BIG 12, SEC, Big 10 and Pac 12 will be placed in the Fiesta, Chik-Fil-A or Cotton.

You left out the Orange Bowl....In most years, if the ACC Champ is not in a playoff bowl, they will be placed in the Orange Bowl.

In eight of the 12 years, the ACC Champion will meet a team from either the Big Ten Conference, Southeastern Conference or Notre Dame.

• In the other four years the Orange Bowl will host a College Football Playoff Semifinal.

 

[Sportsman5]

What if concussion injuries end football? What if aliens invaded? What if Texas joins the ACC as a partial member in 7 or 8 or 12 years. I can dream up "what if" and " may happen" scenarios, too.

IF the ACC is raided, ND could stay there as a partial member and the conference can backfill. ND would still remain independent.

There is no way that ND will be left out of the playoff system. That is just an anti-ND fan pipe dream.

ND puts 80,795 people in the seats for every home game. They just announced a $400 million stadium expansion/addition/renovation.

The Irish just signed a $9 million/year deal (for ten years) with Under Armour, the highest apparel deal in sports history.

By your own stated criteria, ND should be just fine, then. There are their ticket and jersey sale revenues.

ND is already working on digital platforms. It is Jack Swarbrick's pet project. ND will be in the forefront of the new technology, not at the tail end of it.

I think that the speculation of ND's independence ending or of eroding fan support are just that, baseless speculation.

Speculation of 4 power conferences being formed and the acc being raided is infinite times more likely to happen than aliens invading in the next few years. Texas joining the ACC even as a partial member? how does that make any sense? Join a weak football conference with no rivals that would make travel unbelievably bad? WAY less likely than the 4 power conferences being formed and the acc the one to be raided. One power conference was already raided and eliminated and the ACC is thought by many to be by far the weakest football conference excluding a couple of teams. That means it is in perfect position to be raided.

The acc will not back fill in this case and then go about the status quo. It will not have the same ability to put teams into the football playoff as the power conferences in that scenario.

In the case of the 4 power conferences those other teams can without a doubt force notre dame to join a conference and give them their TV rights to the conference going forward. all they say to notre dame is either you remain independent and lose access to the college football playoff system or you join a conference. Pretty fair and simple and makes all the sense in the world to everyone except notre dame and their fans. It could be a situation where they are allowed to play out their contract before becoming a regular member of a conference.

How does home attendance of 80,000 or 87,000 prove that notre dame has more value than 10 other college teams? All of these top teams have greater attendance numbers of 90,000+.

The primary reason a team gets a certain apparel deal is because the greater national exposure a team has the more the logo is seen on TV and the greater the value is to the brand (under armor in this case). So it is pretty much directly related to the TV contract and national exposure during prime time.

Again. It is CRAZY that you still think I am stating Notre dame will fall off the face of the earth. You say that I am admitting ND will be just fine because of ticket and Jersey sales. OF COURSE I AM SAYING THEY WILL BE JUST FINE. I NEVER said that they weren't. I just said there are probably about 10-12 teams in a better position going forward. 10-12 teams is a VERY small number.

The thought of ND losing their contract is FAR from baseless speculation. The talks of the ACC being raided and college football going to 4 power conferences is more than just vague rumors and it makes more sense than half of the conference realignment that has already taken place. Have you seriously not been aware of this? I get that some people aren't, but if you are a Notre Dame fan on other people's message boards than you would seem like the type that would be all over something like this.

You are trying to discredit my extremely valid argument by saying that I am trying to claim notre dame will plummet in value. You say I fall into a group of fans you have met who say notre dame will lose all their fans. this reasoning is so wrong it is ridiculous. And to top it all off I was initially responding to SOMEONE ELSE. You jumped in the conversation and started attacking me claiming I was saying things that I clearly wasn't. Please stop attacking me and claiming I am saying things that I am not saying. You can think that it is more likely that there are 5 as opposed to 4 power conferences going forward. But why state that saying football will go to 4 power conferences is equivalent to saying aliens will invade? Only to try to VERY UNFAIRLY discredit my point. that is unreasonable. period

 

[billybud]

I've got my finger in my ears...going "lalalalalala".

It worked for me when I was 7.

 

[Marty Jackson]

Sorry, but those are a lot of typed words to be so fundamentally wrong.

Are you trying to convince yourself?

ND was special and popular before television existed and will be for a very long time in the future, conference affiliation or not.

I have seen and heard this kind of stuff my whole life (I am 56), yet ND is still very popular and very financially successful.

ND recruits well, but not because it is on NBC. Funny, I keep hearing that ND's advantage there has been eroded because today "everyone is on TV", yet ND keeps signing highly rated classes.

Most kids talk about academics, tradition and the good feeling they get when they visit the campus when they commit to ND, more so than mentioning the NBC deal.

Those 80,975 folks who travel from all over the country to see ND play don't do so because ND has an NBC contract.

Local fan support has very little to do with ND's ratings, attendance, leading apparel contract or other barometers of success.

Neither does alumni support. It is the support of multi-generational (mostly) Catholic families around the country that pass on their loyalty and love of ND to their kids and grandkids.

My Irish born, emigrant grandfather who ended up a coal miner near Pittsburgh became an ND fan when the Irish beat Army in 1913. Every member of my very large, extended family have been fans of Notre Dame ever since.

100 years, everyone, aunts, uncles, nephews, nieces, cousins, grandchildren, you name it.

My parents went to an ND game for their honeymoon in 1939. My brother started his letters home from South Vietnam in the fall of 1966 with the question "How did the Irish do?"

My nephew serving in Afghanistan last year got ND gear sent to him there to outfit the Afghan National Police he was training and serving with.

His daughter is 16 and is a huge ND fan, despite living in Alabama (next to Fort Benning) for most of her life. They now live near Fort Lewis, Washington and my nephew flies an ND flag from his house and has an ND sticker on his bumper.

Go to any ND home game and check the license plates of the cars in the parking lots. Check the number of private planes from all over the country.

I graduated from LSU Law School. My two sons graduated from LSU's School of Engineering. We don't like LSU athletics, will not travel eight miles to watch LSU play but will drive 1000 miles to attend an ND home game.

My oldest son and I are driving 7 hours from Baton Rouge to San Antonio this weekend to see ND play teams like Santa Clara and Gonzaga in baseball at the annual "Irish Classic" that ND sponsors there every spring.

We will drive past Alex Box Stadium where LSU plays baseball, about eight miles from my house. No interest in seeing the Tigers, but I and my family members drive to San Antonio, Corpus Christi and Houston to see ND baseball.

We get 14-18 family members from Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, Pennsylvania and Maryland to travel to an ND home football game every other year. We meet up and rent a house near the stadium for the weekend.

Families like mine exist all over the country.

That popularity and loyalty is present from coast to coast and would not "fade soon after" if ND joined the ACC in football. It is ingrained.


P.S. You don't think that ABC/ESPN would nationally televise most/all ND football games if it joined the ACC?

You don't think that maybe the ACC would agree to carve out the NBC contract if ND ever agreed to play eight or nine ACC games per year?

That level of fandom exists in much of the 'big-time' programs, although I'd agree there are not many more national level programs than ND. Just goes to show what type of mountain Uconn has to climb. And it's not one that can be done short-term. it's done as you say, through the generations.

 

[billybud]

Building a national brand in the mode of a Notre Dame or Michigan is a tough undertaking for any program without the generations of tradition.

 

[Adios]

The BIG 12 is an extreme longshot I think for UConn because of the extreme distance. UConn has nice academic credentials and basketball of course has been very good, but football needs to be reinvigorated and the stadium like Cincinnati's is on the small side for a P5 conference other than the ACC. The BIG 12 isn't going to expand unless the Big Ten and SEC do.

Because the Big 12 has been so slow, they missed out on the opportunity to grab Louisville and make it even more desirable to grab UC. But now the Big 12 is left with prized athletic departments such as Tulane, Tulsa, Memphis, UCF, USF, etc, to choose from.

 

[Irishfan]

Speculation of 4 power conferences being formed and the acc being raided is infinite times more likely to happen than aliens invading in the next few years. Texas joining the ACC even as a partial member? how does that make any sense? Join a weak football conference with no rivals that would make travel unbelievably bad? WAY less likely than the 4 power conferences being formed and the acc the one to be raided. One power conference was already raided and eliminated and the ACC is thought by many to be by far the weakest football conference excluding a couple of teams. That means it is in perfect position to be raided.

The acc will not back fill in this case and then go about the status quo. It will not have the same ability to put teams into the football playoff as the power conferences in that scenario.

In the case of the 4 power conferences those other teams can without a doubt force notre dame to join a conference and give them their TV rights to the conference going forward. all they say to notre dame is either you remain independent and lose access to the college football playoff system or you join a conference. Pretty fair and simple and makes all the sense in the world to everyone except notre dame and their fans. It could be a situation where they are allowed to play out their contract before becoming a regular member of a conference.

How does home attendance of 80,000 or 87,000 prove that notre dame has more value than 10 other college teams? All of these top teams have greater attendance numbers of 90,000+.

The primary reason a team gets a certain apparel deal is because the greater national exposure a team has the more the logo is seen on TV and the greater the value is to the brand (under armor in this case). So it is pretty much directly related to the TV contract and national exposure during prime time.

Again. It is CRAZY that you still think I am stating Notre dame will fall off the face of the earth. You say that I am admitting ND will be just fine because of ticket and Jersey sales. OF COURSE I AM SAYING THEY WILL BE JUST FINE. I NEVER said that they weren't. I just said there are probably about 10-12 teams in a better position going forward. 10-12 teams is a VERY small number.

The thought of ND losing their contract is FAR from baseless speculation. The talks of the ACC being raided and college football going to 4 power conferences is more than just vague rumors and it makes more sense than half of the conference realignment that has already taken place. Have you seriously not been aware of this? I get that some people aren't, but if you are a Notre Dame fan on other people's message boards than you would seem like the type that would be all over something like this.

You are trying to discredit my extremely valid argument by saying that I am trying to claim notre dame will plummet in value. You say I fall into a group of fans you have met who say notre dame will lose all their fans. this reasoning is so wrong it is ridiculous. And to top it all off I was initially responding to SOMEONE ELSE. You jumped in the conversation and started attacking me claiming I was saying things that I clearly wasn't. Please stop attacking me and claiming I am saying things that I am not saying. You can think that it is more likely that there are 5 as opposed to 4 power conferences going forward. But why state that saying football will go to 4 power conferences is equivalent to saying aliens will invade? Only to try to VERY UNFAIRLY discredit my point. that is unreasonable. period

My issue with the original post was not that ND wouldn't be one of the top teams, it was that they were less valuable than Minnesota or Cal. The Michigan fan who put these figures together seemed to hold the Big Ten in very high regard. Alabama was only three teams ahead of Purdue and Illinois. Half the Big Ten teams were in the top 15.

 

[TerryD]

My issue with the original post was not that ND wouldn't be one of the top teams, it was that they were less valuable than Minnesota or Cal. The Michigan fan who put these figures together seemed to hold the Big Ten in very high regard. Alabama was only three teams ahead of Purdue and Illinois. Half the Big Ten teams were in the top 15.

Exactly. The original post that I responded to had ND dropping to the level of Cal and Minnesota. Here is the exact quote:

"but they will still compete with the 2nd tier of programs in the long term such as Minnesota, Cal, and mich state you mentioned."

And yes, I am aware of all of the talk of 4x16 "power conferences". I just don't believe that it will ever happen.

If it does, ND will not fall to the level of Cal or Minnesota. That was what I responded to, sorry if it bothered you.

 

[NickyNewark]

Exactly. The original post that I responded to had ND dropping to the level of Cal and Minnesota. Here is the exact quote:

"but they will still compete with the 2nd tier of programs in the long term such as Minnesota, Cal, and mich state you mentioned."

And yes, I am aware of all of the talk of 4x16 "power conferences". I just don't believe that it will ever happen.

If it does, ND will not fall to the level of Cal or Minnesota. That was what I responded to, sorry if it bothered you.

I enjoyed you're earlier post about NE Irish-American families with longstanding allegiances to ND as my mom's family from Wyoming County was 1 of them(GGrandfather was railroader engineer) and everybody knows many others like them who grew up on the ND fight song....brought back nice memories. They left Pennsy in the 30s like many NJ's/NY area seeking better opportunities.

 

[btstimpy]

My issue with the original post was not that ND wouldn't be one of the top teams, it was that they were less valuable than Minnesota or Cal. The Michigan fan who put these figures together seemed to hold the Big Ten in very high regard. Alabama was only three teams ahead of Purdue and Illinois. Half the Big Ten teams were in the top 15.

That analysis was heavily weighted toward schools with the largest student and alumni populations, stadium sizes, and the academic part toward graduate research. I argued with the guy who did the analysis about the graduate research part because very few of these student athletes are even graduate students. The health of graduate schools is not relevant at all IMO. But he insisted on keeping it in, so by default it biases the comparison toward the Big Ten.

 

[woomba]

My issue with the original post was not that ND wouldn't be one of the top teams, it was that they were less valuable than Minnesota or Cal. The Michigan fan who put these figures together seemed to hold the Big Ten in very high regard. Alabama was only three teams ahead of Purdue and Illinois. Half the Big Ten teams were in the top 15.

FWIW, the list was compiled by a Kentucky fan, not someone from the Big Ten.

I can see either argument for ND since it ultimately comes down to how much you think independence is a core factor that keeps the ND brand strong. If you view that as the essential ingredient, then any realignment with ND as a full FB member weakens it and its value would go down over time.

 

[buckaineer]

You left out the Orange Bowl....In most years, if the ACC Champ is not in a playoff bowl, they will be placed in the Orange Bowl.

In eight of the 12 years, the ACC Champion will meet a team from either the Big Ten Conference, Southeastern Conference or Notre Dame.

• 
  [ ]In the other four years the Orange Bowl will host a College Football Playoff Semifinal.

Cheering for the ACC again? The conference you proclaimed you dont care about? LOL

 

[buckaineer]

Because the Big 12 has been so slow, they missed out on the opportunity to grab Louisville and make it even more desirable to grab UC. But now the Big 12 is left with prized athletic departments such as Tulane, Tulsa, Memphis, UCF, USF, etc, to choose from.

the BIG 12 didn't "miss out" on Louisville. The BIG 12 decided not to invite Louisville. They didn't invite FSU or ND either. The league has decided having 10 teams and round robin play is what is best for them and where they want to be for now. The BIG 12 is only going to add schools that bring significant value.

 

[billybud]

Cheering for the ACC again? The conference you proclaimed you dont care about? LOL

Nooo...just correcting you. You made an errant statement.

If your kookiness extended to the Big Ten and you made an errant statement...I'd probably provide the correct fact.

 

[upstater]

I don't know what it is about the lack of knowledge of Conn. from opposing fans, but it may have to do with the size of the state. They assume small and there's nothing there. Meanwhile there are 3.6m people living there, with over 1m+ TV sets. It could be that they look at the Hartford market and assume that's the extent of the state. It's not. Hartford is only 2/3rd, whereas more than a million Conn. residents are inside the NYC market. Taken altogether, we're talking about a sizeable market in its own right. One that dwarfs the value of Pitt or WV or Syracuse or Louisville.

AND, most importantly, this market has deep penetration with a cable network carrying UConn tier 3 sports and charging $2.50+ a month on BASIC TIER cable. UConn sports can be the highest rated show on all TV, cable and network, on any given night. The school's licensing revenue shows the value as it was 2x higher than that of any other of the old BE schools.

 

[Adios]

Here's an interesting link!

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Media/Slideshow/2012/07/23/7-Worst-States-to-Live-in-the-Future