You are probably right. But there is another way the NCAA could play this. They could make an example out of a program. Pick one of the perpetrators that doesn't quite fit in, that always has been a little bit renegade, that isn't quite up to snuff academically, is in a small market that is not attractive to advertisers, and nuke it. 2 year death penalty for the basketball program, which would trigger an investigation of the full athletic program. You probably don't have to dig to hard to find shenanigans by the shady football coach too. This penalty would violate all its conference agreements, triggering removal from its conference. Basically lay waste to the athletic program.
Maybe the league replaces that dirty program with a clean program, maybe one that is rising in academic circles and has really good women's athletics, because what better way to show you are above board than women's athletics?
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