This is very confusing. Precedent for whom?
Are there voters out there saying, "I believe he juiced and I'm voting for him anyway"? If there were a lot of those people then Bonds would be in.
I doubt it. I think a lot of people think the "evidence" against this guy is weak. Because it is. I really wonder what the explanation is for why this guy never tested positive through MLB's testing system? Was he having Pedro piss for him?
And while, sure, his career took off in Boston, his career trajectory looks pretty similar to any other superstar's: he was excellent in the minors, had an OPS between .799 and .839 each year in Minnesota, and then got progressively better in his mid-20s.
And this is what he looked like as a rookie:
Hardly McGwire on the '87 A's or Bonds in Pittsburgh. Ortiz was always a stocky guy.
All because of some leaked list from 2003 with no provenance, which has been discredited by MLB. Nobody even knows what he (or the other 102 players) allegedly tested positive for: some of the "positives" included OTC stuff and/or stuff that wasn't prohibited. These are all facts.
Do I know for a fact he never used PEDs? Of course not. I can't prove a negative. Do I think it's highly unlikely that his success was due to PEDs? Yes. The guy was hitting bombs in his late 30s, and was getting tested every 5 seconds. Negative over and over and over again.