Unless anything unforeseen happens, Aresco is going to be the one negotiating the next TV contract, so we'll see what he comes up with. I'm not too confident given how the league has been run to date, even if it is a losing hand.
Couple of random points:
1) I don't really have a problem with the P6 marketing campaign. The AAC will never be P6, but I think everyone knows that. The Big East, who's old lineup featured 5 of 8 teams that are now "P5", had performed better than the ACC in most years, was always viewed as the weak link. The 3/8 left, plus teams like Tulane, ECU, (Tulsa to their credit has been good in football and decent in hoops) add nothing to this cache. The AAC is clearly the 6th best football league, but there is no incentive for the cartel to let them into the party.
2) Tier 3 rights and UConn retaining it's SNY deal are an absolute must. I'm sure the SNY deal won't be as much as it was in the past, as there are a) less games, b) less quality games, but taking that and splitting it among 12 teams is absurd and barely puts a dent in the bucket when spread that thin. I guess UConn really doesn't have any recourse if the league says no, but you would think it's better for the league as a whole to let one of its premiere programs still fund their AD to its proper levels.