Non-Key Tweets

[jostar1]

What is that at 1:15?
View attachment 12079

There is someone stretched out on the sofa and he is moving his feet (wearing socks). The narrator is talking about the players having a place to relax.

 

[CL82]

Well sure if ND agreed to join the Big 10 without absurd conditions and requested BC come along they'd be invited. If ND agreed to join and requested UMass come along they'd be invited too.

I actually think that UMass to the B1G is more likely than BC. I think Fredo made its bed a long time ago. It no longer has much value, insiide the ACC or outside of it.

 

[Tusky]

Similar to the NYC market, no one college controls the DC market. A conference needs at least 2 teams to make it theirs and two of the major DC teams are a issue as one does not play D1 football (Georgetown) and the other is not a major basketball team (Navy, apologies to the Admiral). The ACC had 2 of the biggest brands in DC in Maryland and UVA; but, let Maryland sneak away to the B1G in the middle of the night. Should the B1G land UVA or V Tech, the ACC will be MIA in the DC market, which is the 9th largest in the US. Now, should UConn somehow end-up in the B1G the XII, the ACC would also be significantly be weakened in the NYC market, which of course is #1.

Plus, if UVA leaves, UNC will also leave and that will be the end of the ACC.

Oh, by the way, saying BC carries the Boston market is a stretch. Outside of the hockey program, which is not in the ACC, I have seen UConn in the Boston news more than BC over the years at least since Flutie graduated. Between this and BC's status as a 'small' private, non-state flagship, Catholic university, the only chance that BC gets into the B1G is if ND swallows its pride, make amends with U Michigan and others and ND demands that BC join them. A very slim chance. Duke has a higher chance as they are AAU, offer a boat load of research dollars (Duke Med versus no med at BC for example), have a 'decent' basketball pedigree, and I think the B1G wants UNC more than ND. Thus, UNC has more leverage to bring Duke along for the ride than ND would for BC. Plus, ND have proven that it watches out for #1 only. Why do they care about BC?

I'm a numbers guy, so I took a lot at the current conference structure and the top 50 US TV markets. I inverted the value (#1 TV market = 50 Points, #50 TV market = 1 point) and then gave 3 points for a market leader, 2 for a split, and 1 for a secondary market presence. This gave me the following:

• ACC: 924 points
  
• B1G: 1,232 points
  
• PAC: 912 points
  
• SEC: 851 points
  
• XII: 324 points

The B1G has a network, is the by far the TV leader in points at 1,232 and is therefore as a future P4 member (sorry Penn St is not leaving the B1G for the ACC ever). No question. The PAC is at #3 with 912 points and has a TV network and is protected geographically. Thus, they are a lock as a P4 member; but, may look to expand. While sitting forth in points, which should make them vulnerable, The SEC has a TV network and their football brand protects them. They are also a lock to be a P4 conference, while they will likely look to expand. The ACC sits second with 924 points and should be a lock to be a P4 member but, does not have a network and only leads one of the top ten markets (Boston - BC on its own is a stretch; but with ND, too, I give it to them). This dilutes their value to the TV networks and makes it vulnerable to being raided by both the B1G and the SEC in an effort to expand their own markets along with the XII in a fight for survival. The XII only has 324 points and sits fifth as they share their two largest markets with the SEC (DFW & Houston) and lead fairly small markets (Austin & OKC). They should be dead; but, if they can expand by adding UConn (gains a split with the #1 market in NYC and a leader in the #29 market in New Haven/Hartford) and another market (Temple = Philly - #4, USF - Tampa #12, UCF = Orlando #28, UC = Cincinnati - #33) they should be able to live long enough for the GOR's to expire in the mid 2020's and if the ACC fails to secure a network by then, well...

That was a lot of really interesting info. I'm just a little confused by the premise of "owning" a media market. It makes me think of Risk or some other other board game. I clearly don't get it.

I assumed the only things that mattered about a conference's presence in a media market were:

1) Is Conference Network automatically part of cable package?

2) What are the carriage fees.

3) Ratings/Advertising.

I always assumed that was all that mattered. So for NYC for instance, Rutgers brought NYC, as BTN is now included on all except basic packages. So too, Maryland brought DC, BTN is included.

Adding teams to already existing markets could only increase carriage fees and advertising money. But I always thought that didn't matter as much, since schools like Rutgers and Maryland aren't the big sells. The BTN is still selling UM, OSU, PSU, etc in NYC and DC. That's what's driving the fees and viewers. Rutgers and Maryland are just the excuse to insist the BTN be automatic in packages.

Just my ignorant sense of it.

 

[TerryD]

Tusky, you may be overrating Notre Dame's value. Sure they may be the top property on the board, but valuable enough to carry BC along with them? Doubt it - not compared to two flagships (UVa and UConn, UVa and UNC) or, if research/AAU matters, Duke or Georgia Tech.

You may also be overrating BC's pull with the Pope. Sure, the Pope might prefer to see BC in the B1G over ACC, but would he really pressure Notre Dame to make it happen? And if he did, would Notre Dame play along? He might find it easier to get BC soccer into an Argentinian league.

Lol, the Pope? Really? CR has gone off the rails.

 

[Tusky]

Also, I found these:

CFBexpert@OneHundredPercentReliableCFBexpert · 34m26 minutes ago
Don't sleep on ND. No media coverage of internal discussions and no FOIA availability, but stuff happening.

CFBexpert@OneHundredPercentReliableCFBexpert · 33m52 minutes ago
ND "disturbed" by 2015, felt would've been excluded from playoff even at 11-1.

CFBexpert@OneHundredPercentReliableCFBexpert · 33m11 minutes ago
ND feels that now the possibility of Big12 Champ Game means even narrower window into playoff. Undefeated?

CFBexpert@OneHundredPercentReliableCFBexpert · 30m56 minutes ago
Don't sleep on ND, hand being forced more quickly than previously thought.

Am I doing this right?

 

[coachcap]

Well sure if ND agreed to join the Big 10 without absurd conditions and requested BC come along they'd be invited. If ND agreed to join and requested UMass come along they'd be invited too.

brass, WAIT: aren't "absurd conditions" & BC virtually the same thing?

 

[pj]

Lol, the Pope? Really? CR has gone off the rails.

Well, the Pope does root for the marginalized and impoverished on the peripheries. And who is more marginalized, impoverished of victories, and peripheral to college athletics than BC?

 

[HuskyHawk]

Don't know if this was addressed in another thread, so I'm adding it here. Being as WVU is one of the proponents of B-XII expansion, AND wants schools closer to Morgantown, I visited the Mountaineer Scout Board & scanned their Big XII Conference board (formerly their CR board). There is a thread simply entitled UCONN.
Incredible stubbornness & lack of enlightenment by some posters. One poster's thoughts as an example: Doesn't want UCONN under any circumstances. They've never been good in football (forget 2 Big East Co-Championships), lack of facilities which they can't afford to build (guess that he's never seen pictures of the Schenk), bring nothing to the table. Other posters tried to tell this clown that, in the future, CR is about population & cable boxes to build a conference network (citing Rutgers to the B-XII as an example) & that UCONN brings the entire area from NYC to Boston-high population density for subscribership. He wasn't having any of it & reduced the thread to name calling. WOW.

West Virginia is populated by intelligent, insightful, well educated people with excellent dental work....said nobody, ever.

 

[CTMike]

Also, I found these:

CFBexpert@OneHundredPercentReliableCFBexpert · 34m26 minutes ago
Don't sleep on ND. No media coverage of internal discussions and no FOIA availability, but stuff happening.

CFBexpert@OneHundredPercentReliableCFBexpert · 33m52 minutes ago
ND "disturbed" by 2015, felt would've been excluded from playoff even at 11-1.

CFBexpert@OneHundredPercentReliableCFBexpert · 33m11 minutes ago
ND feels that now the possibility of Big12 Champ Game means even narrower window into playoff. Undefeated?

CFBexpert@OneHundredPercentReliableCFBexpert · 30m56 minutes ago
Don't sleep on ND, hand being forced more quickly than previously thought.

Am I doing this right?

At least he's reliable.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

After reading 4 pages of BCU and ND realignment discussion, I am looking for an icepick to jam through my temple.

 

[Stinger92860]

After reading 4 pages of BCU and ND realignment discussion, I am looking for an icepick to jam through my temple.

What is your home address?

 

[DarthGrumpy]

After reading 4 pages of BCU and ND realignment discussion, I am looking for an icepick to jam through my temple.

Here you go

 

[DarthGrumpy]

That was a lot of really interesting info. I'm just a little confused by the premise of "owning" a media market. It makes me think of Risk or some other other board game. I clearly don't get it.

I assumed the only things that mattered about a conference's presence in a media market were:

1) Is Conference Network automatically part of cable package?

2) What are the carriage fees.

3) Ratings/Advertising.

I always assumed that was all that mattered. So for NYC for instance, Rutgers brought NYC, as BTN is now included on all except basic packages. So too, Maryland brought DC, BTN is included.

Adding teams to already existing markets could only increase carriage fees and advertising money. But I always thought that didn't matter as much, since schools like Rutgers and Maryland aren't the big sells. The BTN is still selling UM, OSU, PSU, etc in NYC and DC. That's what's driving the fees and viewers. Rutgers and Maryland are just the excuse to insist the BTN be automatic in packages.

Just my ignorant sense of it.

Simply stated, the bigger the TV market and the bigger the share of the market that a conference has, the more money it is likely to generate though subscription fees and advertising dollars (along with ticket prices, college recruitment [academics], donor base, etc.) that a conference can potentially generate. The B1G has it. The XII does not. The ACC should have it; but, blew it due to a lack of a network.

 

[MattMang23]

Well, the Pope does root for the marginalized and impoverished on the peripheries. And who is more marginalized, impoverished of victories, and peripheral to college athletics than BC?

We are more impoverished monetarily and the longer this goes on, could be marginalized athletically, too. The Pope <33333 UConn.

 

[ZamboniHomie]

Wasn't in the form of a tweet, but whatever, I'm new to this: http://campusinsiders.com/news/big-12-expansion-what-the-league-should-do-02-22-2016

 

[businesslawyer]

Similar to the NYC market, no one college controls the DC market. A conference needs at least 2 teams to make it theirs and two of the major DC teams are a issue as one does not play D1 football (Georgetown) and the other is not a major basketball team (Navy, apologies to the Admiral). The ACC had 2 of the biggest brands in DC in Maryland and UVA; but, let Maryland sneak away to the B1G in the middle of the night. Should the B1G land UVA or V Tech, the ACC will be MIA in the DC market, which is the 9th largest in the US. Now, should UConn somehow end-up in the B1G the XII, the ACC would also be significantly be weakened in the NYC market, which of course is #1.

Plus, if UVA leaves, UNC will also leave and that will be the end of the ACC.

Oh, by the way, saying BC carries the Boston market is a stretch. Outside of the hockey program, which is not in the ACC, I have seen UConn in the Boston news more than BC over the years at least since Flutie graduated. Between this and BC's status as a 'small' private, non-state flagship, Catholic university, the only chance that BC gets into the B1G is if ND swallows its pride, make amends with U Michigan and others and ND demands that BC join them. A very slim chance. Duke has a higher chance as they are AAU, offer a boat load of research dollars (Duke Med versus no med at BC for example), have a 'decent' basketball pedigree, and I think the B1G wants UNC more than ND. Thus, UNC has more leverage to bring Duke along for the ride than ND would for BC. Plus, ND have proven that it watches out for #1 only. Why do they care about BC?

I'm a numbers guy, so I took a lot at the current conference structure and the top 50 US TV markets. I inverted the value (#1 TV market = 50 Points, #50 TV market = 1 point) and then gave 3 points for a market leader, 2 for a split, and 1 for a secondary market presence. This gave me the following:

• ACC: 924 points
  
• B1G: 1,232 points
  
• PAC: 912 points
  
• SEC: 851 points
  
• XII: 324 points

The B1G has a network, is the by far the TV leader in points at 1,232 and is therefore as a future P4 member (sorry Penn St is not leaving the B1G for the ACC ever). No question. The PAC is at #3 with 912 points and has a TV network and is protected geographically. Thus, they are a lock as a P4 member; but, may look to expand. While sitting forth in points, which should make them vulnerable, The SEC has a TV network and their football brand protects them. They are also a lock to be a P4 conference, while they will likely look to expand. The ACC sits second with 924 points and should be a lock to be a P4 member but, does not have a network and only leads one of the top ten markets (Boston - BC on its own is a stretch; but with ND, too, I give it to them). This dilutes their value to the TV networks and makes it vulnerable to being raided by both the B1G and the SEC in an effort to expand their own markets along with the XII in a fight for survival. The XII only has 324 points and sits fifth as they share their two largest markets with the SEC (DFW & Houston) and lead fairly small markets (Austin & OKC). They should be dead; but, if they can expand by adding UConn (gains a split with the #1 market in NYC and a leader in the #29 market in New Haven/Hartford) and another market (Temple = Philly - #4, USF - Tampa #12, UCF = Orlando #28, UC = Cincinnati - #33) they should be able to live long enough for the GOR's to expire in the mid 2020's and if the ACC fails to secure a network by then, well...

Outstanding post, especially the part comparing DC to NYC. I would add, as a point of comparison, that each of the areas is more transient than the nation as a whole with people moving in and out from everywhere else in the country for business reasons.

I'll add one other thing that I haven't seen discussed, at least in a long while. If adding UConn gets the XII a Network and a network presence in NYC, can the ACC really allow that? Because that threatens them with not being able to penetrate into NYC, and frankly the coast above it (at least at a per set charge that resembles a home market).

If the ACC views the UConn to XII speculation as having any basis in reality -- and who knows if it does -- can they let the XII move first, knowing that FSU and Clemson down the road will be targets?

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Outstanding post, especially the part comparing DC to NYC. I would add, as a point of comparison, that each of the areas is more transient than the nation as a whole with people moving in and out from everywhere else in the country for business reasons.

I'll add one other thing that I haven't seen discussed, at least in a long while. If adding UConn gets the XII a Network and a network presence in NYC, can the ACC really allow that? Because that threatens them with not being able to penetrate into NYC, and frankly the coast above it (at least at a per set charge that resembles a home market).

If the ACC views the UConn to XII speculation as having any basis in reality -- and who knows if it does -- can they let the XII move first, knowing that FSU and Clemson down the road will be targets?

Thanks and Yes. Should UConn join the XII, the ACC will face the nightmare of Oklahoma or Texas visiting the NYC market every other year and the other visiting every 4 years. Plus, the XII could arrange their annual SEC showdown to feature a SEC power (Florida, Bama, etc.) playing in NYC each year, too. As long as UConn can stay on the field (not win) against these teams, it would be a huge ratings bonanza and, in conjunction with Rutger games with Penn St/Michigan/Ohio St/etc., will marginalize the ACC's "NYC Team" in Syracuse. This move would effectively cut off the entire northeast from the ACC from DC north and weaken the value that they would to any network arrangement. Without a ACC Network, by the mid '20's when the GOR expire, the ACC will be raided by the B1G, SEC, and XII.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

ND going full in the ACC would be a positive development for us of course, as it would increase the likelihood they need team 16.

 

[CL82]

Outstanding post, especially the part comparing DC to NYC. I would add, as a point of comparison, that each of the areas is more transient than the nation as a whole with people moving in and out from everywhere else in the country for business reasons.

I'll add one other thing that I haven't seen discussed, at least in a long while. If adding UConn gets the XII a Network and a network presence in NYC, can the ACC really allow that? Because that threatens them with not being able to penetrate into NYC, and frankly the coast above it (at least at a per set charge that resembles a home market).

If the ACC views the UConn to XII speculation as having any basis in reality -- and who knows if it does -- can they let the XII move first, knowing that FSU and Clemson down the road will be targets?

Without a conference network, there is no money to add Connecticut to the ACC. It is that simple. Given the fact that the bulk of their T3 inventory is tied up with Raycom, and the the # of cable cutters and ESPN's resulting declining revenue, I doubt the ACCN will happen. No ACCN, no UConn to the ACC.

I suppose that ESPN could decide to prop up their house band yet again and finances a UConn acquisition but I don't see it happening. Likewise, I suppose ND could decide to join in full but if they can sit back and wait for clear winners and losers in the conference wars before committing, why wouldn't they?

 

[Tusky]

Simply stated, the bigger the TV market and the bigger the share of the market that a conference has, the more money it is likely to generate though subscription fees and advertising dollars (along with ticket prices, college recruitment [academics], donor base, etc.) that a conference can potentially generate. The B1G has it. The XII does not. The ACC should have it; but, blew it due to a lack of a network.

I'm with you and generally I agree with you. But I think you might be overstating the addition of a second local team in a market like NYC or DC. Getting carriage is based on local teams, but I'm not so sure subscription fees and advertising dollars is as dependent.

I'm not an expert, but I follow these things and live in NYC, so let's use that as an example, from the perspective of the BIG.
- Rutgers, the local team, guaranteed BTN carriage in the DMA.
- If subscription and advertising is based on local interest, in NYC there are probably similar amounts of Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State fans as Rutgers, UConn and 'Cuse fans. The NYC BTN carriage fees are now based on the demand for all BIG content in NYC, which is already huge. Adding another local team like 'Cuse or UConn would increase local interest, but only by a small percentage, probably not significantly impacting the price per unit. It's not like adding UConn would suddenly double the local interest in BIG content in NYC, as though only considering Rutgers the current draw. This is essentially businesslawyers point about transient fan bases.

That's just why I'm not sure there's as much value to the BIG to add UConn to an already established NYC market (though CT is a draw in and of itself), or VT/UVa to the DC market (though again, local VA is a draw in and of itself). But those smaller draws are on a totally different scale than the initial additions of Maryland and Rutgers.

With all of that said, UConn to the Big12 is a totally different equation. That brings carriage for a B12N in NYC. That's a whole different level of value.

 

[Jimdish255]

I think the obsession with ND in CR is more on the fans side at this point. They are not the lynchpin to success for any conference because they have proven to be the black hole of realignment. ACC/BE deals prove an unwillingness to go "all-in" for football with anyone and the other conferences probably regret any time already wasted on them. Better to wait for them to come and say they're ready than to waste an ounce of time that could be spent making concrete long-term plans. Maintain relationship but move on to more reliable options.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Is it crazy that I'm actually missing pro-uconn updates from Flug? When did this thread turn into a BCU/ND thread?!

 

[HuskyHawk]

Without a conference network, there is no money to add Connecticut to the ACC. It is that simple. Given the fact that the bulk of their T3 inventory is tied up with Raycom, and the the # of cable cutters and ESPN's resulting declining revenue, I doubt the ACCN will happen. No ACCN, no UConn to the ACC.

I suppose that ESPN could decide to prop up their house band yet again and finances a UConn acquisition but I don't see it happening. Likewise, I suppose ND could decide to join in full but if they can sit back and wait for clear winners and losers in the conference wars before committing, why wouldn't they?

That's it in a nutshell. I'm convinced that if ND joined the ACC, UConn would be their partner and the combined strength plus Syracuse would make ACC the strongest league in the NY metro. But without ND, ACC has no $ to play with and has to watch from the sidelines. It's not fatal, it merely means that the NY metro would be divided three ways.

 

[Tusky]

Is it crazy that I'm actually missing pro-uconn updates from Flug? When did this thread turn into a BCU/ND thread?!

Sorry, I just don't know of any other good CR boards. I'm really not making this about BC. That was tongue-in-cheek. I think the only point I wanted to make was that I think ND will move if 4x16 is happening and if the discussion of the week is the death of the ACC, you can't really consider where the chips will fall without figuring out ND first.

 

[pj]

Notre Dame's greatest support is in the Midwest and Northeast. The B1G was eager for Notre Dame when they had no east coast presence, but having proven that they can capture eastern cable markets without Notre Dame, I expect that UConn + UVa or Va Tech would bring more money than any Notre Dame +1 combination at this point.

Notre Dame is hugely valuable to the ACC, but is the ACC able to generate enough money to entice Notre Dame to join without giving them a preferential deal, which could destabilize the conference?

B12 and SEC must be unattractive to Notre Dame.

Notre Dame's ACC deal delays a decision until 2025, but by that time the B1G may be unavailable to them and they'll be down to one bidder. If independence isn't working, then they may have to go in to the ACC on the same terms as BC. That would be quite a come down.