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Tusky said:
Plausible, but I can't buy UVa or even the more I think about it, VT as #16 for the BIG. What do they bring? Maryland was already supposed to bring DC. Suburban Virginia adds nothing. I hate to say it, but it's the same problem that UConn has when aspiring to a BIG invite. Sure, you have viewers in NYC, but it's redundant. The BIG already has a foot in NYC with Rutgers.

Isn't this more about network penetration and carriage fees rather than ratings and advertising revenue. Get the BTN on in as many major media markets as possible. The teams that will drive the ratings will always be Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and potentially Notre Dame, not the local team.

Adding BC as #16 gives the BIG every major city in the northeast.
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Similar to the NYC market, no one college controls the DC market. A conference needs at least 2 teams to make it theirs and two of the major DC teams are a issue as one does not play D1 football (Georgetown) and the other is not a major basketball team (Navy, apologies to the Admiral). The ACC had 2 of the biggest brands in DC in Maryland and UVA; but, let Maryland sneak away to the B1G in the middle of the night. Should the B1G land UVA or V Tech, the ACC will be MIA in the DC market, which is the 9th largest in the US. Now, should UConn somehow end-up in the B1G the XII, the ACC would also be significantly be weakened in the NYC market, which of course is #1.

Plus, if UVA leaves, UNC will also leave and that will be the end of the ACC.

Oh, by the way, saying BC carries the Boston market is a stretch. Outside of the hockey program, which is not in the ACC, I have seen UConn in the Boston news more than BC over the years at least since Flutie graduated. Between this and BC's status as a 'small' private, non-state flagship, Catholic university, the only chance that BC gets into the B1G is if ND swallows its pride, make amends with U Michigan and others and ND demands that BC join them. A very slim chance. Duke has a higher chance as they are AAU, offer a boat load of research dollars (Duke Med versus no med at BC for example), have a 'decent' basketball pedigree, and I think the B1G wants UNC more than ND. Thus, UNC has more leverage to bring Duke along for the ride than ND would for BC. Plus, ND have proven that it watches out for #1 only. Why do they care about BC?

I'm a numbers guy, so I took a lot at the current conference structure and the top 50 US TV markets. I inverted the value (#1 TV market = 50 Points, #50 TV market = 1 point) and then gave 3 points for a market leader, 2 for a split, and 1 for a secondary market presence. This gave me the following:
  • ACC: 924 points
  • B1G: 1,232 points
  • PAC: 912 points
  • SEC: 851 points
  • XII: 324 points
The B1G has a network, is the by far the TV leader in points at 1,232 and is therefore as a future P4 member (sorry Penn St is not leaving the B1G for the ACC ever). No question. The PAC is at #3 with 912 points and has a TV network and is protected geographically. Thus, they are a lock as a P4 member; but, may look to expand. While sitting forth in points, which should make them vulnerable, The SEC has a TV network and their football brand protects them. They are also a lock to be a P4 conference, while they will likely look to expand. The ACC sits second with 924 points and should be a lock to be a P4 member but, does not have a network and only leads one of the top ten markets (Boston - BC on its own is a stretch; but with ND, too, I give it to them). This dilutes their value to the TV networks and makes it vulnerable to being raided by both the B1G and the SEC in an effort to expand their own markets along with the XII in a fight for survival. The XII only has 324 points and sits fifth as they share their two largest markets with the SEC (DFW & Houston) and lead fairly small markets (Austin & OKC). They should be dead; but, if they can expand by adding UConn (gains a split with the #1 market in NYC and a leader in the #29 market in New Haven/Hartford) and another market (Temple = Philly - #4, USF - Tampa #12, UCF = Orlando #28, UC = Cincinnati - #33) they should be able to live long enough for the GOR's to expire in the mid 2020's and if the ACC fails to secure a network by then, well...
 

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coachcap said:
Don't know if this was addressed in another thread, so I'm adding it here. Being as WVU is one of the proponents of B-XII expansion, AND wants schools closer to Morgantown, I visited the Mountaineer Scout Board & scanned their Big XII Conference board (formerly their CR board). There is a thread simply entitled UCONN.
Incredible stubbornness & lack of enlightenment by some posters. One poster's thoughts as an example: Doesn't want UCONN under any circumstances. They've never been good in football (forget 2 Big East Co-Championships), lack of facilities which they can't afford to build (guess that he's never seen pictures of the Schenk), bring nothing to the table. Other posters tried to tell this clown that, in the future, CR is about population & cable boxes to build a conference network (citing Rutgers to the B-XII as an example) & that UCONN brings the entire area from NYC to Boston-high population density for subscribership. He wasn't having any of it & reduced the thread to name calling. WOW.
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I posted this video of our facilities on the WVU board. Also posted it on the Houston board a couple of weeks ago. There is a lot of misinformation out there.

 
What is that at 1:15?
Capture.PNG
 
brasssbonanzaa said:
Well sure if ND agreed to join the Big 10 without absurd conditions and requested BC come along they'd be invited. If ND agreed to join and requested UMass come along they'd be invited too.
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I actually think that UMass to the B1G is more likely than BC. I think Fredo made its bed a long time ago. It no longer has much value, insiide the ACC or outside of it.
 
Mr. Conehead said:
Similar to the NYC market, no one college controls the DC market. A conference needs at least 2 teams to make it theirs and two of the major DC teams are a issue as one does not play D1 football (Georgetown) and the other is not a major basketball team (Navy, apologies to the Admiral). The ACC had 2 of the biggest brands in DC in Maryland and UVA; but, let Maryland sneak away to the B1G in the middle of the night. Should the B1G land UVA or V Tech, the ACC will be MIA in the DC market, which is the 9th largest in the US. Now, should UConn somehow end-up in the B1G the XII, the ACC would also be significantly be weakened in the NYC market, which of course is #1.

Plus, if UVA leaves, UNC will also leave and that will be the end of the ACC.

Oh, by the way, saying BC carries the Boston market is a stretch. Outside of the hockey program, which is not in the ACC, I have seen UConn in the Boston news more than BC over the years at least since Flutie graduated. Between this and BC's status as a 'small' private, non-state flagship, Catholic university, the only chance that BC gets into the B1G is if ND swallows its pride, make amends with U Michigan and others and ND demands that BC join them. A very slim chance. Duke has a higher chance as they are AAU, offer a boat load of research dollars (Duke Med versus no med at BC for example), have a 'decent' basketball pedigree, and I think the B1G wants UNC more than ND. Thus, UNC has more leverage to bring Duke along for the ride than ND would for BC. Plus, ND have proven that it watches out for #1 only. Why do they care about BC?

I'm a numbers guy, so I took a lot at the current conference structure and the top 50 US TV markets. I inverted the value (#1 TV market = 50 Points, #50 TV market = 1 point) and then gave 3 points for a market leader, 2 for a split, and 1 for a secondary market presence. This gave me the following:
  • ACC: 924 points
  • B1G: 1,232 points
  • PAC: 912 points
  • SEC: 851 points
  • XII: 324 points
The B1G has a network, is the by far the TV leader in points at 1,232 and is therefore as a future P4 member (sorry Penn St is not leaving the B1G for the ACC ever). No question. The PAC is at #3 with 912 points and has a TV network and is protected geographically. Thus, they are a lock as a P4 member; but, may look to expand. While sitting forth in points, which should make them vulnerable, The SEC has a TV network and their football brand protects them. They are also a lock to be a P4 conference, while they will likely look to expand. The ACC sits second with 924 points and should be a lock to be a P4 member but, does not have a network and only leads one of the top ten markets (Boston - BC on its own is a stretch; but with ND, too, I give it to them). This dilutes their value to the TV networks and makes it vulnerable to being raided by both the B1G and the SEC in an effort to expand their own markets along with the XII in a fight for survival. The XII only has 324 points and sits fifth as they share their two largest markets with the SEC (DFW & Houston) and lead fairly small markets (Austin & OKC). They should be dead; but, if they can expand by adding UConn (gains a split with the #1 market in NYC and a leader in the #29 market in New Haven/Hartford) and another market (Temple = Philly - #4, USF - Tampa #12, UCF = Orlando #28, UC = Cincinnati - #33) they should be able to live long enough for the GOR's to expire in the mid 2020's and if the ACC fails to secure a network by then, well...
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That was a lot of really interesting info. I'm just a little confused by the premise of "owning" a media market. It makes me think of Risk or some other other board game. I clearly don't get it.

I assumed the only things that mattered about a conference's presence in a media market were:

1) Is Conference Network automatically part of cable package?

2) What are the carriage fees.

3) Ratings/Advertising.

I always assumed that was all that mattered. So for NYC for instance, Rutgers brought NYC, as BTN is now included on all except basic packages. So too, Maryland brought DC, BTN is included.

Adding teams to already existing markets could only increase carriage fees and advertising money. But I always thought that didn't matter as much, since schools like Rutgers and Maryland aren't the big sells. The BTN is still selling UM, OSU, PSU, etc in NYC and DC. That's what's driving the fees and viewers. Rutgers and Maryland are just the excuse to insist the BTN be automatic in packages.

Just my ignorant sense of it.
 
pj said:
Tusky, you may be overrating Notre Dame's value. Sure they may be the top property on the board, but valuable enough to carry BC along with them? Doubt it - not compared to two flagships (UVa and UConn, UVa and UNC) or, if research/AAU matters, Duke or Georgia Tech.

You may also be overrating BC's pull with the Pope. Sure, the Pope might prefer to see BC in the B1G over ACC, but would he really pressure Notre Dame to make it happen? And if he did, would Notre Dame play along? He might find it easier to get BC soccer into an Argentinian league.
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Lol, the Pope? Really? CR has gone off the rails.
 
Also, I found these:

CFBexpert@OneHundredPercentReliableCFBexpert · 34m26 minutes ago
Don't sleep on ND. No media coverage of internal discussions and no FOIA availability, but stuff happening.

CFBexpert@OneHundredPercentReliableCFBexpert · 33m52 minutes ago
ND "disturbed" by 2015, felt would've been excluded from playoff even at 11-1.

CFBexpert@OneHundredPercentReliableCFBexpert · 33m11 minutes ago
ND feels that now the possibility of Big12 Champ Game means even narrower window into playoff. Undefeated?

CFBexpert@OneHundredPercentReliableCFBexpert · 30m56 minutes ago
Don't sleep on ND, hand being forced more quickly than previously thought.

Am I doing this right?
 
brasssbonanzaa said:
Well sure if ND agreed to join the Big 10 without absurd conditions and requested BC come along they'd be invited. If ND agreed to join and requested UMass come along they'd be invited too.
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brass, WAIT: aren't "absurd conditions" & BC virtually the same thing?:cool:
 
TerryD said:
Lol, the Pope? Really? CR has gone off the rails.
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Well, the Pope does root for the marginalized and impoverished on the peripheries. And who is more marginalized, impoverished of victories, and peripheral to college athletics than BC?
 
coachcap said:
Don't know if this was addressed in another thread, so I'm adding it here. Being as WVU is one of the proponents of B-XII expansion, AND wants schools closer to Morgantown, I visited the Mountaineer Scout Board & scanned their Big XII Conference board (formerly their CR board). There is a thread simply entitled UCONN.
Incredible stubbornness & lack of enlightenment by some posters. One poster's thoughts as an example: Doesn't want UCONN under any circumstances. They've never been good in football (forget 2 Big East Co-Championships), lack of facilities which they can't afford to build (guess that he's never seen pictures of the Schenk), bring nothing to the table. Other posters tried to tell this clown that, in the future, CR is about population & cable boxes to build a conference network (citing Rutgers to the B-XII as an example) & that UCONN brings the entire area from NYC to Boston-high population density for subscribership. He wasn't having any of it & reduced the thread to name calling. WOW.
Expand ...

West Virginia is populated by intelligent, insightful, well educated people with excellent dental work....said nobody, ever.
 
Tusky said:
Also, I found these:

CFBexpert@OneHundredPercentReliableCFBexpert · 34m26 minutes ago
Don't sleep on ND. No media coverage of internal discussions and no FOIA availability, but stuff happening.

CFBexpert@OneHundredPercentReliableCFBexpert · 33m52 minutes ago
ND "disturbed" by 2015, felt would've been excluded from playoff even at 11-1.

CFBexpert@OneHundredPercentReliableCFBexpert · 33m11 minutes ago
ND feels that now the possibility of Big12 Champ Game means even narrower window into playoff. Undefeated?

CFBexpert@OneHundredPercentReliableCFBexpert · 30m56 minutes ago
Don't sleep on ND, hand being forced more quickly than previously thought.

Am I doing this right?
Expand ...
At least he's reliable.
 
Tusky said:
That was a lot of really interesting info. I'm just a little confused by the premise of "owning" a media market. It makes me think of Risk or some other other board game. I clearly don't get it.

I assumed the only things that mattered about a conference's presence in a media market were:

1) Is Conference Network automatically part of cable package?

2) What are the carriage fees.

3) Ratings/Advertising.

I always assumed that was all that mattered. So for NYC for instance, Rutgers brought NYC, as BTN is now included on all except basic packages. So too, Maryland brought DC, BTN is included.

Adding teams to already existing markets could only increase carriage fees and advertising money. But I always thought that didn't matter as much, since schools like Rutgers and Maryland aren't the big sells. The BTN is still selling UM, OSU, PSU, etc in NYC and DC. That's what's driving the fees and viewers. Rutgers and Maryland are just the excuse to insist the BTN be automatic in packages.

Just my ignorant sense of it.
Expand ...

Simply stated, the bigger the TV market and the bigger the share of the market that a conference has, the more money it is likely to generate though subscription fees and advertising dollars (along with ticket prices, college recruitment [academics], donor base, etc.) that a conference can potentially generate. The B1G has it. The XII does not. The ACC should have it; but, blew it due to a lack of a network.
 
pj said:
Well, the Pope does root for the marginalized and impoverished on the peripheries. And who is more marginalized, impoverished of victories, and peripheral to college athletics than BC?
Expand ...

We are more impoverished monetarily and the longer this goes on, could be marginalized athletically, too. The Pope <33333 UConn.
 
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Mr. Conehead said:
Similar to the NYC market, no one college controls the DC market. A conference needs at least 2 teams to make it theirs and two of the major DC teams are a issue as one does not play D1 football (Georgetown) and the other is not a major basketball team (Navy, apologies to the Admiral). The ACC had 2 of the biggest brands in DC in Maryland and UVA; but, let Maryland sneak away to the B1G in the middle of the night. Should the B1G land UVA or V Tech, the ACC will be MIA in the DC market, which is the 9th largest in the US. Now, should UConn somehow end-up in the B1G the XII, the ACC would also be significantly be weakened in the NYC market, which of course is #1.

Plus, if UVA leaves, UNC will also leave and that will be the end of the ACC.

Oh, by the way, saying BC carries the Boston market is a stretch. Outside of the hockey program, which is not in the ACC, I have seen UConn in the Boston news more than BC over the years at least since Flutie graduated. Between this and BC's status as a 'small' private, non-state flagship, Catholic university, the only chance that BC gets into the B1G is if ND swallows its pride, make amends with U Michigan and others and ND demands that BC join them. A very slim chance. Duke has a higher chance as they are AAU, offer a boat load of research dollars (Duke Med versus no med at BC for example), have a 'decent' basketball pedigree, and I think the B1G wants UNC more than ND. Thus, UNC has more leverage to bring Duke along for the ride than ND would for BC. Plus, ND have proven that it watches out for #1 only. Why do they care about BC?

I'm a numbers guy, so I took a lot at the current conference structure and the top 50 US TV markets. I inverted the value (#1 TV market = 50 Points, #50 TV market = 1 point) and then gave 3 points for a market leader, 2 for a split, and 1 for a secondary market presence. This gave me the following:
  • ACC: 924 points
  • B1G: 1,232 points
  • PAC: 912 points
  • SEC: 851 points
  • XII: 324 points
The B1G has a network, is the by far the TV leader in points at 1,232 and is therefore as a future P4 member (sorry Penn St is not leaving the B1G for the ACC ever). No question. The PAC is at #3 with 912 points and has a TV network and is protected geographically. Thus, they are a lock as a P4 member; but, may look to expand. While sitting forth in points, which should make them vulnerable, The SEC has a TV network and their football brand protects them. They are also a lock to be a P4 conference, while they will likely look to expand. The ACC sits second with 924 points and should be a lock to be a P4 member but, does not have a network and only leads one of the top ten markets (Boston - BC on its own is a stretch; but with ND, too, I give it to them). This dilutes their value to the TV networks and makes it vulnerable to being raided by both the B1G and the SEC in an effort to expand their own markets along with the XII in a fight for survival. The XII only has 324 points and sits fifth as they share their two largest markets with the SEC (DFW & Houston) and lead fairly small markets (Austin & OKC). They should be dead; but, if they can expand by adding UConn (gains a split with the #1 market in NYC and a leader in the #29 market in New Haven/Hartford) and another market (Temple = Philly - #4, USF - Tampa #12, UCF = Orlando #28, UC = Cincinnati - #33) they should be able to live long enough for the GOR's to expire in the mid 2020's and if the ACC fails to secure a network by then, well...
Expand ...

Outstanding post, especially the part comparing DC to NYC. I would add, as a point of comparison, that each of the areas is more transient than the nation as a whole with people moving in and out from everywhere else in the country for business reasons.

I'll add one other thing that I haven't seen discussed, at least in a long while. If adding UConn gets the XII a Network and a network presence in NYC, can the ACC really allow that? Because that threatens them with not being able to penetrate into NYC, and frankly the coast above it (at least at a per set charge that resembles a home market).

If the ACC views the UConn to XII speculation as having any basis in reality -- and who knows if it does -- can they let the XII move first, knowing that FSU and Clemson down the road will be targets?
 
businesslawyer said:
Outstanding post, especially the part comparing DC to NYC. I would add, as a point of comparison, that each of the areas is more transient than the nation as a whole with people moving in and out from everywhere else in the country for business reasons.

I'll add one other thing that I haven't seen discussed, at least in a long while. If adding UConn gets the XII a Network and a network presence in NYC, can the ACC really allow that? Because that threatens them with not being able to penetrate into NYC, and frankly the coast above it (at least at a per set charge that resembles a home market).

If the ACC views the UConn to XII speculation as having any basis in reality -- and who knows if it does -- can they let the XII move first, knowing that FSU and Clemson down the road will be targets?
Expand ...

Thanks and Yes. Should UConn join the XII, the ACC will face the nightmare of Oklahoma or Texas visiting the NYC market every other year and the other visiting every 4 years. Plus, the XII could arrange their annual SEC showdown to feature a SEC power (Florida, Bama, etc.) playing in NYC each year, too. As long as UConn can stay on the field (not win) against these teams, it would be a huge ratings bonanza and, in conjunction with Rutger games with Penn St/Michigan/Ohio St/etc., will marginalize the ACC's "NYC Team" in Syracuse. This move would effectively cut off the entire northeast from the ACC from DC north and weaken the value that they would to any network arrangement. Without a ACC Network, by the mid '20's when the GOR expire, the ACC will be raided by the B1G, SEC, and XII.
 
businesslawyer said:
Outstanding post, especially the part comparing DC to NYC. I would add, as a point of comparison, that each of the areas is more transient than the nation as a whole with people moving in and out from everywhere else in the country for business reasons.

I'll add one other thing that I haven't seen discussed, at least in a long while. If adding UConn gets the XII a Network and a network presence in NYC, can the ACC really allow that? Because that threatens them with not being able to penetrate into NYC, and frankly the coast above it (at least at a per set charge that resembles a home market).

If the ACC views the UConn to XII speculation as having any basis in reality -- and who knows if it does -- can they let the XII move first, knowing that FSU and Clemson down the road will be targets?
Expand ...
Without a conference network, there is no money to add Connecticut to the ACC. It is that simple. Given the fact that the bulk of their T3 inventory is tied up with Raycom, and the the # of cable cutters and ESPN's resulting declining revenue, I doubt the ACCN will happen. No ACCN, no UConn to the ACC.

I suppose that ESPN could decide to prop up their house band yet again and finances a UConn acquisition but I don't see it happening. Likewise, I suppose ND could decide to join in full but if they can sit back and wait for clear winners and losers in the conference wars before committing, why wouldn't they?
 
Mr. Conehead said:
Simply stated, the bigger the TV market and the bigger the share of the market that a conference has, the more money it is likely to generate though subscription fees and advertising dollars (along with ticket prices, college recruitment [academics], donor base, etc.) that a conference can potentially generate. The B1G has it. The XII does not. The ACC should have it; but, blew it due to a lack of a network.
Expand ...

I'm with you and generally I agree with you. But I think you might be overstating the addition of a second local team in a market like NYC or DC. Getting carriage is based on local teams, but I'm not so sure subscription fees and advertising dollars is as dependent.

I'm not an expert, but I follow these things and live in NYC, so let's use that as an example, from the perspective of the BIG.
- Rutgers, the local team, guaranteed BTN carriage in the DMA.
- If subscription and advertising is based on local interest, in NYC there are probably similar amounts of Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Michigan State fans as Rutgers, UConn and 'Cuse fans. The NYC BTN carriage fees are now based on the demand for all BIG content in NYC, which is already huge. Adding another local team like 'Cuse or UConn would increase local interest, but only by a small percentage, probably not significantly impacting the price per unit. It's not like adding UConn would suddenly double the local interest in BIG content in NYC, as though only considering Rutgers the current draw. This is essentially businesslawyers point about transient fan bases.

That's just why I'm not sure there's as much value to the BIG to add UConn to an already established NYC market (though CT is a draw in and of itself), or VT/UVa to the DC market (though again, local VA is a draw in and of itself). But those smaller draws are on a totally different scale than the initial additions of Maryland and Rutgers.

With all of that said, UConn to the Big12 is a totally different equation. That brings carriage for a B12N in NYC. That's a whole different level of value.
 
I think the obsession with ND in CR is more on the fans side at this point. They are not the lynchpin to success for any conference because they have proven to be the black hole of realignment. ACC/BE deals prove an unwillingness to go "all-in" for football with anyone and the other conferences probably regret any time already wasted on them. Better to wait for them to come and say they're ready than to waste an ounce of time that could be spent making concrete long-term plans. Maintain relationship but move on to more reliable options.
 
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