Lady Vols - 2012-13

[BigO]

With Tenn next year, I can't help but believe that degree of success depends on Simmons..... she is so dynamic..... if she can be reined in discipline wise (cut down on the run and gun, get teammates involved), she can carry the team on her back in spurts anyway. An exciting mover of the rock, and good shooter as well.

simmons is KEY. when she is on. she is ON! just need her to play defense more or she will not play ahead of williams or carter at 2 spot...both of them are stoppers. carter may be the best defender we have had on perimeter in years.

 

[Bayareahusky]

Big O, I actually am a Glory fan...... I think yes, you have had injuries, but team (IMHO) had FAR too much depth to use overall injuries as an excuse. That whole senior class should have been exemplary for rest of team. You are absolutely right about Glory..... I rarely saw her do anything but bust her ass for her team.

 

[BigO]

Big O, I actually am a Glory fan...... I think yes, you have had injuries, but team (IMHO) had FAR too much depth to use overall injuries as an excuse. That whole senior class should have been exemplary for rest of team. You are absolutely right about Glory..... I rarely saw her do anything but bust her ass for her team.

i agree. too many passive types on the floor at once. this last class was my fav, even without a FF appearance. however, i think the other girls are prob really ready to put the past in the past and to get out of the seniors' shadows

 

[Bayareahusky]

With Simmons, others actually may be better, but she has so much heart..... it mystified me this past year the way coaching staff played her..... in, then out, she hit some baskets, then sat down. .... at least that is the way it was in the 5 or 6 TN games I saw

 

[Bayareahusky]

I am interested to see how your 3 frosh will develop..... it is always a crapshoot with the transition from HS AA status to college..... some blossom, some collapse.... hopefully for you guys the coaching staff stability (as of today at least) will portend good things looking forward and give the newbies needed confidence.

 

[BigO]

With Simmons, others actually may be better, but she has so much heart..... it mystified me this past year the way coaching staff played her..... in, then out, she hit some baskets, then sat down. .... at least that is the way it was in the 5 or 6 TN games I saw

i am with you....simmons sat so much in games that she should have been in....no excuse for that. the substitutions were HORRENDOUS last year. glad the committee coaching thing lasted one year....and we still managed elite 8 and sec tourney champ---could have been a hell of a lot worse

 

[Tonyc]

IMO Holly has her back up againest a wall. Micki left, players have graduated, recruits have gone elsewhere. Pat for all intensive purposes is out of the picture, and Holly is on her own. How will this play out. Well right now you have a very good point guard who has a bunch of good team mates a couple of which play alot of one on one. Hollys job is to build a disiplined team, that plays as a unit. She will play in Pats shaddow with Pat still in the picture out of respect and honor which Pat deserves. This is a rebuilding process for TN. TN will not be a top 10 team for quite sometime. Holly will have to focus on what she needs to do to build her team. She will need good expereinced asst coaches who can recruit, teach train and develop these kids. Hollys tuffest job is to build her own mystic, and get the fans behind her. If she can do that she will be successful. This season she will be living and coaching in Pats shaddow. It is very apparent to me with the names that were mentioned as poosible head coaches at TN that for what ever reasons they are not there. Now its up to Holly. She needs to start from the ground floor and rebuild and not worry about NCs, those are unrealistic right now. She needs to build a team and everything else will happen.

 

[BigO]

I am interested to see how your 3 frosh will develop..... it is always a crapshoot with the transition from HS AA status to college..... some blossom, some collapse.... hopefully for you guys the coaching staff stability (as of today at least) will portend good things looking forward and give the newbies needed confidence.

i know a lot of attention has went to head coach, but we now have 2 assistant spots open and those are so so important. we need a young assistant who can really be a player contact.

 

[BigO]

IMO Holly has her back up againest a wall. Micki left, players have graduated, recruits have gone elsewhere. Pat for all intensive purposes is out of the picture, and Holly is on her own. How will this play out. Well right now you have a very good point guard who has a bunch of good team mates a couple of which play alot of one on one. Hollys job is to build a disiplined team, that plays as a unit. She will play in Pats shaddow with Pat still in the picture out of respect and honor which Pat deserves. This is a rebuilding process for TN. TN will not be a top 10 team for quite sometime. Holly will have to focus on what she needs to do to build her team. She will need good expereinced asst coaches who can recruit, teach train and develop these kids. Hollys tuffest job is to build her own mystic, and get the fans behind her. If she can do that she will be successful. This season she will be living and coaching in Pats shaddow. It is very apparent to me with the names that were mentioned as poosible head coaches at TN that for what ever reasons they are not there. Now its up to Holly. She needs to start from the ground floor and rebuild and not worry about NCs, those are unrealistic right now. She needs to build a team and everything else will happen.

i agree with some of that...but if texas AM can win a NC anyone can.... and i totally disagree about us not being a top 10 team...i keep hearing that on here for some reason and really don't understand. it's not like our seniors were knocking peoples' socks off last season, excluding glory. KY will be good but we will def be better than most teams. we will still end up being a 2 or top 3 seed next year

 

[VAUConnFan]

Nice thread.

I will concur with wbbfan1 that Tennessee will end next season no worse than 15 for no other reason that there are no more than 14 teams out there to push them lower. I wish them well for the sake of the game. Can we pretty much agree that WCBB would be healthier if the old powers like La Tech and Old Dominion were still strong? Does it not make for great story lines when the traditional basketball powers like Kentucky, Duke, and North Carolina field good women's teams? The game needs more good teams, not fewer. How many must-see women's games are on UConn's schedule next year. How many must see WCBB games overall? We need more. And we need them to be competitive. We may not want them to be too competitive what with nerves and all, but the casual fan is not going to stay tuned to a blowout.

 

[doggydaddy]

i agree with some of that...but if texas AM can win a NC anyone can.... and i totally disagree about us not being a top 10 team...i keep hearing that on here for some reason and really don't understand. it's not like our seniors were knocking peoples' socks off last season, excluding glory. KY will be good but we will def be better than most teams. we will still end up being a 2 or top 3 seed next year

You are counting on a lot of players that haven't done it yet. Simmons, your proclaimed key to the season, has not shown she can lead this team. Her shot selection has been abysmal and just got worse as the season progressed. She will shoot you out of more games than she will win for you.

Your seniors produced 50% of your offense and rebounding it was even more. You are so quick to dismiss them and to think it is so easy for new players to make up for their graduation is wishful thinking, IMO.

 

[doggydaddy]

Nice thread.

I will concur with wbbfan1 that Tennessee will end next season no worse than 15 for no other reason that there are no more than 14 teams out there to push them lower. I wish them well for the sake of the game. Can we pretty much agree that WCBB would be healthier if the old powers like La Tech and Old Dominion were still strong? Does it not make for great story lines when the traditional basketball powers like Kentucky, Duke, and North Carolina field good women's teams? The game needs more good teams, not fewer. How many must-see women's games are on UConn's schedule next year. How many must see WCBB games overall? We need more. And we need them to be competitive. We may not want them to be too competitive what with nerves and all, but the casual fan is not going to stay tuned to a blowout.

I would love for all those teams to be good. I wouldn't mind if Tennessee wasn't.

 

[doggydaddy]

simmons is KEY. when she is on. she is ON! just need her to play defense more or she will not play ahead of williams or carter at 2 spot...both of them are stoppers. carter may be the best defender we have had on perimeter in years.

How often was she on and why do you think she will be on more often next year?

 

[BigO]

Nice thread.

I will concur with wbbfan1 that Tennessee will end next season no worse than 15 for no other reason that there are no more than 14 teams out there to push them lower. I wish them well for the sake of the game. Can we pretty much agree that WCBB would be healthier if the old powers like La Tech and Old Dominion were still strong? Does it not make for great story lines when the traditional basketball powers like Kentucky, Duke, and North Carolina field good women's teams? The game needs more good teams, not fewer. How many must-see women's games are on UConn's schedule next year. How many must see WCBB games overall? We need more. And we need them to be competitive. We may not want them to be too competitive what with nerves and all, but the casual fan is not going to stay tuned to a blowout.

nice post. i agree and unlike some of your fellow fans, i think UCONN being a great team is good for the game. not threatening at all to TN's history.

night all

 

[alexrgct]

I think the importance of both size and depth tends to get overestimated. And so does how far teams will fall. Hasn't UConn been showing that for awhile now? The right coach could get Tennessee back to the Elite 8 with that roster. In part due to more clearly defined offensive roles because whoever is coaching doesn't have enough options to muck it up very much. Warlick probably isn't that coach, but if things break right she may anyway even if they have close to double digit losses again along the way.

Warlick can still trot out a starting lineup of entirely McDonald's All-Americans. There aren't 8 other teams in the country that can do that.

Massengale is capable of playing much better than she did as a freshman, particularly shooting the ball. There is a reason UConn recruited her so heavily and a reason she's consistently been the starting point guard for USA Basketball. She had better than a 2/1 assist to turnover ratio, the first Tennessee player to accomplish that was Kara Lawson. The last player to have more assists in a season was Marciniak. I don't think Massengale becomes a superstar, but she can be the foundation of a good team.

Around her you put Simmons and Spani. Two different kinds of wing players with now more defined roles. Burdick slots in fairly decently as a supporting player to fill in the gaps at the 4, which is her makeup. And I anticipate Bashara Graves will be starting at the 5 as a freshman, and I do like what i have seen so far from her. She should be able to rebound and score some as a freshman. Harrison is the backup post and Warlick has three guards to find a 6th man from. I'm sure they hope Carter is recovered enough from her ACL to be that player, but they can make do with Williams as they have in the past if the Elite 8 is the goal.

If they have injuries like they have been having for the last few years they're obviously in deep trouble, but if they stay healthy and can ride their starting lineup they will be relatively okay and I wouldn't be surprised if this was the first Tennessee team in a decade to have more assists than turnovers. In part because there are a few atypical Tennessee players on the roster and in part because they may actually develop a little offensive chemistry by having the same players play significant minutes together even if the offensive coaching isn't great. They'll most likely be a Sweet 16 team, but like Notre Dame I wouldn't be that surprised if they ended up in the Elite 8 because the reality is there are very few teams with their top end talent, and top end talent tends to carry teams pretty far in basketball.

Depth is overrated if you have a really good group of kids in your short rotation. Tennessee will have seven kids that include no top-end talent that has proven much of anything at the college level. If they had Candace Parker? Sure, the depth issue isn't important. But when the best thing you can say about these kids is that they were high school AAs, that's not a ringing endorsement. Can Massengale generate more of her own offense when she has to? Can Burdick's offensive game develop significantly? Can Graves come in and have an immediate impact? Can Spani get back in shape and locked in for her senior campaign? Can Simmons be more consistent while maintaining her intensity and competitiveness? Can Williams be something more than adequate? Can Harrison be productive with increased minutes? When there are legitimate questions around each player on a short rotation with no anchor like Parker or Maya, that's where depth is a concern. The more players you have, the greater a chance you have that enough questions can be answered positively to field a good team.

Tennessee had a team full of high school AAs this year with actual college bona fides on top of it (league POY honors, college AA recognition, etc.). And they still lost games to teams like Arkansas, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vanderbilt. A little less talent, fewer matchup problems created by players like Glory, Stricklen, and Baugh, and that could mean more losses. I agree with VowelGuy's assessment that in a couple years, when the six underclassmen are upperclassmen, this could be a pretty stout team, but on a team with six freshmen and sophomores out of nine players, other teams' experience and chemistry can easily trump talent.

 

[doggydaddy]

nice post. i agree and unlike some of your fellow fans, i think UCONN being a great team is good for the game. not threatening at all to TN's history.

night all

I don't find Tennessee being good threatening. Just looking at the current situation and telling it like I see it.

 

[doggydaddy]

Depth is overrated if you have a really good group of kids in your short rotation. Tennessee will have seven kids that include no top-end talent that has proven much of anything at the college level. If they had Candace Parker? Sure, the depth issue isn't important. But when the best thing you can say about these kids is that they were high school AAs, that's not a ringing endorsement. Can Massengale generate more of her own offense when she has to? Can Burdick's offensive game develop significantly? Can Graves come in and have an immediate impact? Can Spani get back in shape and locked in for her senior campaign? Can Simmons be more consistent while maintaining her intensity and competitiveness? Can Williams be something more than adequate? Can Harrison be productive with increased minutes? When there are legitimate questions around each player on a short rotation with no anchor like Parker or Maya, that's where depth is a concern. The more players you have, the greater a chance you have that enough questions can be answered positively to field a good team.

Tennessee had a team full of high school AAs this year with actual college bona fides on top of it (league POY honors, college AA recognition, etc.). And they still lost games to teams like Arkansas, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vanderbilt. A little less talent, fewer matchup problems created by players like Glory, Stricklen, and Baugh, and that could mean more losses. I agree with VowelGuy's assessment that in a couple years, when the six underclassmen are upperclassmen, this could be a pretty stout team, but on a team with six freshmen and sophomores out of nine players, other teams' experience and chemistry can easily trump talent.

Well said, Alex.

And the same goes for a lack of height. If you have a star like Maya, it can be mitigated. But when Harrison is your only true post, there will be trouble rebounding and defending.

And speaking of defending, that will be a huge problem for Tennessee. When they start Massingale, Simmons, Spani, Burdick and Harrison, they will be a poor defensive team. The small backcourt will be an issue and they struggled last year to guard the perimeter with better defenders. Spani and Burdick are slow of foot and Harrison is a foul machine and need to get a lot stronger.

 

[UcMiami]

Just one note of reality on TN next year ... It was going to be a bitch of a year whether Pat was 100% healthy and still coaching or not. You cannot lose 5 seniors who contributed major minutes and represent the 'stars' of your team and not have a bitch of a year. And that is especially true when you do not have a 'major' force returning. Massingale, Spani, Simmons sort of remind me of the complementary players we had left when DT graduated - good players but unable to really take over leadership. Given everything else that is going on at TN it is going to be even tougher. And while HW may be a very good coach given a chance to really run the team, I do not believe she is in the class of PS or GA and so I think the team will struggle.
The real question in my mind and the first 'tell' in terms of the future for TN will be what the 2013 recruiting class looks like. There is no question there are openings for players on the team in 2013, but will the top players commit? And 2013 has already been somewhat compromised by the uncertainly leading up to this date, so 2014 may be even more telling. If they can land some top 10 recruits in 2013 and/or 2014 then the future will look considerably brighter.
In terms of Pat's helping in recruiting, it may end up being a double edged sword - yes it is great to get to meet Pat on your visit, but she will also be the tangible foil to the current coaches you will be playing for who cannot but pale in comparison.

 

[Suebird10fan]

I think the importance of both size and depth tends to get overestimated. And so does how far teams will fall. Hasn't UConn been showing that for awhile now? The right coach could get Tennessee back to the Elite 8 with that roster. In part due to more clearly defined offensive roles because whoever is coaching doesn't have enough options to muck it up very much. Warlick probably isn't that coach, but if things break right she may anyway even if they have close to double digit losses again along the way.

Warlick can still trot out a starting lineup of entirely McDonald's All-Americans. There aren't 8 other teams in the country that can do that.

Massengale is capable of playing much better than she did as a freshman, particularly shooting the ball. There is a reason UConn recruited her so heavily and a reason she's consistently been the starting point guard for USA Basketball. She had better than a 2/1 assist to turnover ratio, the first Tennessee player to accomplish that was Kara Lawson. The last player to have more assists in a season was Marciniak. I don't think Massengale becomes a superstar, but she can be the foundation of a good team.

Around her you put Simmons and Spani. Two different kinds of wing players with now more defined roles. Burdick slots in fairly decently as a supporting player to fill in the gaps at the 4, which is her makeup. And I anticipate Bashara Graves will be starting at the 5 as a freshman, and I do like what i have seen so far from her. She should be able to rebound and score some as a freshman. Harrison is the backup post and Warlick has three guards to find a 6th man from. I'm sure they hope Carter is recovered enough from her ACL to be that player, but they can make do with Williams as they have in the past if the Elite 8 is the goal.

If they have injuries like they have been having for the last few years they're obviously in deep trouble, but if they stay healthy and can ride their starting lineup they will be relatively okay and I wouldn't be surprised if this was the first Tennessee team in a decade to have more assists than turnovers. In part because there are a few atypical Tennessee players on the roster and in part because they may actually develop a little offensive chemistry by having the same players play significant minutes together even if the offensive coaching isn't great. They'll most likely be a Sweet 16 team, but like Notre Dame I wouldn't be that surprised if they ended up in the Elite 8 because the reality is there are very few teams with their top end talent, and top end talent tends to carry teams pretty far in basketball.

Thanks Scotter. I think you added an important perspective. I would add that Meighan Simmons was so horrible last year that for her to play up to her potential would be a huge boost. And I'm certainly not talking all American cuz I don't think she's in that category, even potentially. We've seen enough of her shot selection to know that. But consensus was she was top 10 in her class as a freshman. I thought that might be slightly generous. But if she can play like one of the top 15 juniors in the country, that will make up for losing Stricklen and Manning right there. You add in the natural improvement with Massengale from freshman to sophomore years, plus Graves making a solid contribution and I don't necessarily see a precipitous fall.

By the way, I don't think this is a huge factor, but I'm assuming that clarification of Summitt's status and graduation of the underachieving senior class will be a positive factor for team chemistry.

Tennessee needs to stay healthy, no doubt. But, if they do I would put them at somewhere between 10 and 12 and wouldn't be the least bit shocked if they ended up sneaking in as a 2 seed. They'll lose a lot of games for sure because of their tough schedule. And they're only a couple of injuries away from flirting with being unranked, but let's face it folks, the number of teams that clearly stack up as having more talent than the Vols next year is very, very short--the ones that come to mind are UConn, Baylor, Duke, MD, KY are the ones that leap to mind. After that the pickings get very, very slim.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Depth is overrated if you have a really good group of kids in your short rotation. Tennessee will have seven kids that include no top-end talent that has proven much of anything at the college level. If they had Candace Parker? Sure, the depth issue isn't important. But when the best thing you can say about these kids is that they were high school AAs, that's not a ringing endorsement. Can Massengale generate more of her own offense when she has to? Can Burdick's offensive game develop significantly? Can Graves come in and have an immediate impact? Can Spani get back in shape and locked in for her senior campaign? Can Simmons be more consistent while maintaining her intensity and competitiveness? Can Williams be something more than adequate? Can Harrison be productive with increased minutes? When there are legitimate questions around each player on a short rotation with no anchor like Parker or Maya, that's where depth is a concern. The more players you have, the greater a chance you have that enough questions can be answered positively to field a good team.

Tennessee had a team full of high school AAs this year with actual college bona fides on top of it (league POY honors, college AA recognition, etc.). And they still lost games to teams like Arkansas, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vanderbilt. A little less talent, fewer matchup problems created by players like Glory, Stricklen, and Baugh, and that could mean more losses. I agree with VowelGuy's assessment that in a couple years, when the six underclassmen are upperclassmen, this could be a pretty stout team, but on a team with six freshmen and sophomores out of nine players, other teams' experience and chemistry can easily trump talent.

Alex, as I read your comments I'm wondering what bar you are using. If you meant that Tennessee could be looking at double digit losses and is very unlikely to be a FF team, I would certainly agree.

But a lot of folks on the board are talking about Tennessee not being close to a top ten team. I think that's where Scotter's comments come in. And as far as that debate goes, I think you have to be careful in speculating that team after team with inferior talent will be superior to Tennessee because of the Vols youth and lack of depth. Assuming obviously that they stay away from significant injuries. We'd all agree they are hugely susceptible to injuries.

 

[alexrgct]

Alex, as I read your comments I'm wondering what bar you are using. If you meant that Tennessee could be looking at double digit losses and is very unlikely to be a FF team, I would certainly agree.

But a lot of folks on the board are talking about Tennessee not being close to a top ten team. I think that's where Scotter's comments come in. And as far as that debate goes, I think you have to be careful in speculating that team after team with inferior talent will be superior to Tennessee because of the Vols youth and lack of depth. Assuming obviously that they stay away from significant injuries. We'd all agree they are hugely susceptible to injuries.

One need only go back as recently as 2008-09 for an example of a team loaded to the gills with high school AAs that wasn't able to stay inside the top 10. That team ended up a five seed and losing in shocking fashion in the first round. I'm not predicting that result necessarily, but I think the LV team of next season resembles that team far more closely than any of UConn's short rotation squads that contended.

Just as the LVs got a lot better in the seasons that followed as the core nucleus got a little more experienced, so too will the LVs in the seasons that follow 2012-13. But next year they could easily be outside of the top 10, possibly worse if not enough of the questions I posed get answered affirmatively.

 

[alexrgct]

Another example: the 2004-05 Huskies. That team was pretty loaded with high school AAs. Junior class was the #1 recruiting class in the country and had played a key role in two NC teams. Freshman class was super talented as well: Mel, Ketia, Charde. But that team ended up barely in the top 10 and lost convincingly in the Sweet 16. Is it unreasonable to think the 2012-13 LVs could end up somewhere between the 2004-05 Huskies and 2008-09 LVs?

 

[stwainfan]

Burdick - improved could be the best player on the team.
Massengale - improved better she has the skills.
Harrison - improved she learned a lot from Johnson and Baugh.
Carter - going to be a star.
Spani - needs to stay healthy and will be fine.
Simmons - will be better.
Williams- will be healthy and better.
Graves - will help in the post.
Jones - will also help in post.
If there are no big injuries I see the team winning 20-30 games making atleast sweet 16.

 

[Icebear]

Sweet 16 will likely be the best outcome to hope for but there are other more important issues on the table for the team and Pat.

 

[doggydaddy]

Burdick - improved could be the best player on the team.
Massengale - improved better she has the skills.
Harrison - improved she learned a lot from Johnson and Baugh.
Carter - going to be a star.
Spani - needs to stay healthy and will be fine.
Simmons - will be better.
Williams- will be healthy and better.
Graves - will help in the post.
Jones - will also help in post.
If there are no big injuries I see the team winning 20-30 games making atleast sweet 16.

Every player coming back will be better? I just don't think that is realistic.

I can see them making the sweet 16. If they lose in the sweet 16, that means 36 games. So you are saying they will lose 6-16 games? Quite the range there.