Lady Vols - 2012-13

[doggydaddy]

Next year will be the first year in Warlicks tenure as HC of Tennessee. Clearly, the last 4 years have not been up to Tennessee standards. Whether it was due to youth in 2008-9, injuries in 2009-11 or the uncertainty in 20011-12, there is no denying they underachieved the last 4 years based on the relative talent on the roster.

Based on the returning players, the incoming recruits, Pat no longer involved directly with the players, and their usual tough SOS, how do you see this season playing out?

 

[pinotbear]

DD, you forgot lack of chemistry. The LV fans are justly proud of how much the professional teams value their players, and how highly they're drafted, but it wasn't reasonable to expect a Final Four appearance, because of a lack of chemistry.

 

[msf22b]

I think that the incoming team is not top-ten material

 

[justML]

I predict it will take tremendous patience on the part of UT fans to stay positive about the future of their wbb program. No coach could ever be Pat and supporting the new regime will be key.

My first concern would be - as they rebuild the program, will recruits still come?

 

[jsloanjr]

WOW!! I a very difficult blow to the UT program. Even though this day was coming soon, are current players want to stay or does current commits still come?........Let the dust settle.

 

[rbny1]

IMO, it's impossible to predict the future of the Tennessee women's program. We won't know until the transition to a new coach settles in fully, and that may take three or four years.

 

[doggydaddy]

IMO, it's impossible to predict the future of the Tennessee women's program. We won't know until the transition to a new coach settles in fully, and that may take three or four years.

I do understand that. But my question was on how next years team will do.

 

[speedoo]

They will be weak on defense and they won't rebound well. They will have trouble scoring inside. They will lose as many as ten games or more if they play their normal schedule. Lucky if they get to sweet 16.

Sent from my LG-P509 using Tapatalk

 

[Wbbfan1]

IMHO the Lady Vols will end up ranked in the 10 to 15 range. There's still plenty of talent at Tenn, with apparent weakness at Center and possibly depth. They are hoping to sign some JUCO players and that could help them, especially with the center position. I suspect Holly Warlick will play a style similar to what Kentucky played this year. Tenn will have better 3 points shooters then Kentucky, but Kentucky had the depth to constantly rotate players. Rebounding could be their biggest weakness if they don't sign a quality JUCO post player.

 

[connboy77]

Next year will be a tough year for the Lady Vols, not only because they lost so many players because of graduation, but also because of lack of depth. If injury hits they are in deep trouble. I look for them to be no better then top 15.

 

[doggydaddy]

IMHO the Lady Vols will end up ranked in the 10 to 15 range. There's still plenty of talent at Tenn, with apparent weakness at Center and possibly depth. They are hoping to sign some JUCO players and that could help them, especially with the center position. I suspect Holly Warlick will play a style similar to what Kentucky played this year. Tenn will have better 3 points shooters then Kentucky, but Kentucky had the depth to constantly rotate players. Rebounding could be their biggest weakness if they don't sign a quality JUCO post player.

I think your ranking is probably right, but to me, that is the best case scenario.

In regards to the JC transfers, the center they were looking at has decided not visit Tennessee with her last visit. It appears it's because they don't have her major. The other JC player is a 6' forward. Not sure how much she will help in the post or rebounding.

The only returning 3 point shooters are Simmons (31%), Massingale (33%) and Spani (40%). I'm not sure how many minutes Spani can give. She seems brittle with all her injuries. And I'm not sure, without the graduating players not there to give them open shots, how much Simmons and Massingale will improve.

Their rebounding and post defense is a huge issue. For a team that has always relied on rebounding and defense to spur their offense, they could struggle to score.

I'm thinking 15-20 for a ranking by the end of the year.

 

[justML]

Another thought - now that Pat is stepping down as head coach, does that mean current players can transfer without sitting out a year? Incoming recruits can also change their minds without "penalty", correct?

I really hope everyone hangs in there and tries to keep the program afloat this coming season. As I said before, patience will be the key.

 

[alexrgct]

Without JUCOs, they've got nine kids on the roster, of whom I expect seven to be able to play meaningful minutes:

Williams
Spani
Simmons
Massengale
Burdick
Harrison
Graves

In summary:

• Not very deep
• Very, very young
• Spani needs to be 100% healthy, back in shape, and locked in.
• This is Meghan's team. For better and worse.
• Williams doesn't take much off the table or bring much too it.
• Massengale needs to be MUCH better. Which could happen. The problem is that it HAS to.
• Between Burdick and Harrison, someone needs to contribute at a high level at the post. I'm not convinced they can.
• Graves is a Tennessee girl. She better come in on a mission to rep her state.

I mean, I'm trying to come up with an optimistic outlook based on the above, and I'm really struggling. Not enough depth, a lot of elite high school payers but no proven stars at the college level, not a ton of proven leadership, etc. Basically, in order to be optimistic, you have to have faith that every question mark comes up positive with no empirical evidence to serve as the basis for faith. Yes, I realize faith implies belief without evidence, but at least there's usually something there from which you extrapolate more.

 

[Vowelguy]

They are hoping to sign some JUCO players and that could help them, especially with the center position.

Last word was that their 6'5" JUCO target was no longer interested in TN because it "lacked her major".

They also were going after a 6'0" target, which will give depth but not help with the lack of size problem.

I was the first on record pegging them at about #18, coming in 4th in the SEC.

Massengale-Simmons-Spani-Graves are a decent core, but Harrison is a mediocre (at best) center, and their bench of Kamiko-Jones (Fr)-Burdick-possible JUCO is not exactly a murderers row, though Davis Carter could be a nice addition at guard. So a defense/rebounding program for 30 years suddenly has to become a perimeter-oriented team. Pretty radical transformation. In that sense, probably a good time to switch to Warlick, a former G.

Could be pretty good in 2 years, but not next year.

 

[UConnCat]

Last word was that their 6'5" JUCO target was no longer interested in TN because it "lacked her major".

They also were going after a 6'0" target, which will give depth but not help with the lack of size problem.

I was the first on record pegging them at about #18, coming in 4th in the SEC.

Massengale-Simmons-Spani-Graves are a decent core, but Harrison is a mediocre (at best) center, and their bench of Kamiko-Jones (Fr)-Burdick-possible JUCO is not exactly a murderers row, though Davis could be a nice addition at guard. So a defense/rebounding program for 30 years suddenly has to become a perimeter-oriented team. Pretty radical transformation. In that sense, probably a good time to switch to Warlick, a former G.

Could be pretty good in 2 years, but not next year.

Davis? Are you referring to Kaela Davis (2013)? She's no longer committed to Tenn and is now looking elsewhere.

 

[Vowelguy]

Davis? Are you referring to Kaela Davis (2013)? She's no longer committed to Tenn and is now looking elsewhere.

Sorry, I meant Andraya Carter (#20 HG).

 

[UConnCat]

Last word was that their 6'5" JUCO target was no longer interested in TN because it "lacked her major".

They also were going after a 6'0" target, which will give depth but not help with the lack of size problem.

I was the first on record pegging them at about #18, coming in 4th in the SEC.

Massengale-Simmons-Spani-Graves are a decent core, but Harrison is a mediocre (at best) center, and their bench of Kamiko-Jones (Fr)-Burdick-possible JUCO is not exactly a murderers row, though Davis Carter could be a nice addition at guard. So a defense/rebounding program for 30 years suddenly has to become a perimeter-oriented team. Pretty radical transformation. In that sense, probably a good time to switch to Warlick, a former G.

Could be pretty good in 2 years, but not next year.

It will be a dramatic transformation and one not easily done. Tenn's offense has not been one built on player and ball movement and excellent passing. They'll be lots of talk of playing 4 out and 1 in (and similar expressions), but teams need the right personnel and a certain amount of discipline and patience to play effectively in that kind of offense. I don't see it. There's enough talent on Tenn to beat good teams but I don't see many wins against top 10 teams on the schedule.

 

[UConner]

I don't understand why anybody thinks that anything will change next year. Pat will be in back of the bench instead of at the end. Still in the locker room at half time? Do you want the perfect second guessing situation? All this insures is that no new coaching talent will ever consider a job at Tenn until Pat actually lets a new head coach coach. The recruits will determine how long this goes on...

 

[alexrgct]

I don't understand why anybody thinks that anything will change next year. Pat will be in back of the bench instead of at the end. Still in the locker room at half time? Do you want the perfect second guessing situation? All this insures is that no new coaching talent will ever consider a job at Tenn until Pat actually lets a new head coach coach. The recruits will determine how long this goes on...

There's a huge difference between the upcoming season and 2012-13: not enough seniors. How good would the LVs been this year without Glory Johnson? Who can be that kind of player next season? Who presents the kind of mismatch Stricklen does? Coaching situation aside, that roster is problematic.

 

[doggydaddy]

Without JUCOs, they've got nine kids on the roster, of whom I expect seven to be able to play meaningful minutes:

Williams
Spani
Simmons
Massengale
Burdick
Harrison
Graves

In summary:

• Not very deep
• Very, very young
• Spani needs to be 100% healthy, back in shape, and locked in.
• This is Meghan's team. For better and worse.
• Williams doesn't take much off the table or bring much too it.
• Massengale needs to be MUCH better. Which could happen. The problem is that it HAS to.
• Between Burdick and Harrison, someone needs to contribute at a high level at the post. I'm not convinced they can.
• Graves is a Tennessee girl. She better come in on a mission to rep her state.

I mean, I'm trying to come up with an optimistic outlook based on the above, and I'm really struggling. Not enough depth, a lot of elite high school payers but no proven stars at the college level, not a ton of proven leadership, etc. Basically, in order to be optimistic, you have to have faith that every question mark comes up positive with no empirical evidence to serve as the basis for faith. Yes, I realize faith implies belief without evidence, but at least there's something there from which you extrapolate more.

Based on your seven players, stats from last year -

Williams - 11.3 mpg, 2.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg.
Spani - 20.8 mpg, 6.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg.
Simmons - 25 mpg, 11.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg,
Massingale - 28.4 mpg, 7.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg.
Burdick - 13.5 mpg, 4.6 ppg, 2.8 rpg.
Harrison - 8.4 mpg, 3.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg.
Graves - incoming freshman
Carter - incoming freshman
Jones - incoming freshman

That's 107 minutes, 36 points, 15 rebounds coming back.

An awful lot of production needs to be made up for departing players. I'm sure that Simmons will score more because she will shoot more. Massingale should be able to get to double digits. A healthy Spani should be a double digit scorer as well. Burdick has potential to score.

I think rebounding will be a problem. Graves is a very good rebounder, but you are talking about having to make up 25 rebounds to get to their usual 40 per game.

Holly has her work cut out for her, for sure.

 

[Stray Cat]

They will be weak on defense and they won't rebound well.

Well that's a given seeing Meighan Simmons will be one of their starters and she refuses to box out and only shadows her player on defense. However, with Simmons as the starting SG, expect the LV's to lead the nation in 3-point shooting...attempts that is, not percentage made!

They will have trouble scoring inside.

No doubt, they lost NINE games with Johnson, Stricklen and Baugh, who accounted for 50% of their scoring and 53% of there rebounds -- double digit losses is definitely something the LV's should get use too. You simply cannot expect to replace that kind of production from a few freshman and two sophomores who combined for 8 pts and 5.5 rebounds in 22 minutes per game.

Like I said before, the LV's are destined to become the ND Football of WCB. A once proud and elite program who slowly recedes into mediocrity and becomes a "has been".

 

[uconnbaseball]

With the fan support and tradition that Tennessee has - matched by few in WBB -- it is foolish to think they will become a Notre Dame football IMO. There is much more parity in college football than there is in women's basketball (though WBB is getting deeper every year).

I certainly expect that UConn will have a consistently better team & program going forward, at least for the next decade.

 

[UCONNfan1]

Players can certainly improve and get better. i don't think anyone who was on the team this year expects to play at the same level, for better or worse, than they did this year. Having said that, players don't completely transform in just one year, or rarely do they do so.

Kelly supposedly worked on her offense all summer, and aside from a couple big games, her offense came in fits and starts (this is not meant as a criticism as the rest of what she does is awesome). Stef was forced into a big role her freshman year and people expected her to be one of the best 5's in the country. Not so much. She was terrific at times, and really good the last part of the year, but hardly one of the top centers.

My point is, as some have mentioned, Tennessee can't suddenly become a crisp passing team predicated on ball movement, screens, pick and rolls, back screens, and motion offense in 1 year. Harrison will be servicable. she may well average 6-8 PPG if she plays enough minutes and get over 10 at times, but if they really "need" her, they are in trouble.

Burdick and Graves? both are nice players. Neither are game changers. I caught Graves in the Micky D's game. she was solid. reminded me of a more slender Glory Johnson. Both are young. And they have Jones who is 6'1"ish? She's no Samarie Walker.

they will have 5 guard/wings. Massengale is good, but she's no Chelsey Grey/Bria Hartley/Odyssey Simms (or Moriah Jefferson for that matter). A lot of pressure on her next year. Simmons and Spani need to be fantastic and injury free (Spani). Kamiko Williams should see a lot of PT. but she's coming off an injury as is Carter. if Doty, Johnson (Michaela) and Greene are any example, those kids won't be the same as they were pre-injury. Doesn't mean they can't be good, but you can't expect them to be the same.

Tennessee's offense in the past was a lot of 2nd chance points from offensive rebounding. No Cain, no Brewer, no Johnson, and no Stricklen. Warlick lost Demoss as well. i'm not sure if she contributed a ton to the teaching of offense and defense, and Pat's only going to get worse. So you've got Warlick and Lockwood and whoever else they hire. Even the most optimistic fan has to see they will struggle to beat anyone in the top 10.

I could see 10-12 teams who are better than them next year. but they won't play all of them so rankings will be based on other things. i think they end the year in the 14-15 range. i hope a lot lower.

 

[Stray Cat]

With the fan support and tradition that Tennessee has - matched by few in WBB -- it is foolish to think they will become a Notre Dame football IMO. There is much more patiry in college football than there is in women's basketball (though WBB is getting deeper every year).

ND football has every bit as much of tradition as LV BB and 100x the fan support and look where it has landed them. Pat Summitt is and was LV basketball..she is gone now...what is the real appeal of attending UT anymore? They do not have any tradition beyond her so you really have no basis to say it's foolish LV BB won't become ND FB. There will be a lot of teams who will be licking their chops to take a shot and even the score with the LV's now that their leader is gone...if you kill the head, the body will die!

 

[doggydaddy]

With the fan support and tradition that Tennessee has - matched by few in WBB -- it is foolish to think they will become a Notre Dame football IMO. There is much more patiry in college football than there is in women's basketball (though WBB is getting deeper every year).

I certainly expect that UConn will have a consistently better team going forward, at least for the next decade.

Good point about the fan support. This will be a real test of their fandom. It was easy to get behind the team knowing the situation with Pat. It was like a farewell tour and Tennessee fans were wonderful by showing up in droves. I believe they had their highest attendance in several years. Not as high as their heyday, but still a big jump from last year.

If they start losing close to 10 games a year like this year and what I consider double digit loses next year, does the attendance drop to 12K again? Lower?

2013 is HUGE for Tennessee. They already lost the top 3 recruit that backed out of her vebal. How will the coaching change effect the 2013 UT targets? It will go a long way in determining their competativeness in the SEC and Nationally.