Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[bendm]

College football program valuations: Ranking every Power 4 team by how much they’d sell for

College football programs may not be for sale, but what if they were? Here's our best guess at how much the Power 4 would sell for.

www.nytimes.com

Given these estimates are people really so confident UVA would be coveted by the BIG? Pitt and Cuse are more valuable than them. And don’t use Rutgers/Maryland as flagship AAU comps that was over 10 years ago. It’s Money over everything now.

 

[bendm]

Regardless, I think the question is whether anyone after these four leave. And if that holds, is that enough to lure WVU, USF, and Cincy from Big 12 along with UConn. Still a decent league if that holds. Certainly a rival to Big 12

I think this is more likely (ordered by valuation):

1. F$U- sec
2. Clemson- sec
3. Miami- sec
4. UNC- sec
5. VT- big12
6. NC St- big12
7. Lville- big12
8. GT- Big10
9. Cuse- Big10
10. Duke- Big10
11. Pitt- big12
12. UVA- Big10
13. Stanford- PAC
14. SMU- PAC
15. BC- American (haha)
16. Cal- PAC
17. Wake- American

 

[UConnTrumbull]

I think this is more likely (ordered by valuation):

1. F$U- sec
2. Clemson- sec
3. Miami- sec
4. UNC- sec
5. VT- big12
6. NC St- big12
7. Lville- big12
8. GT- Big10
9. Cuse- Big10
10. Duke- Big10
11. Pitt- big12
12. UVA- Big10
13. Stanford- PAC
14. SMU- PAC
15. BC- American (haha)
16. Cal- PAC
17. Wake- American

The Big 10 wouldn’t be interested in those schools except for UVa. GT maybe if they get a few good football seasons together.

 

[bendm]

The Big 10 wouldn’t be interested in those schools except for UVa. GT maybe if they get a few good football seasons together.

Theyd take Duke for the bball brand alone but also Better academics and football than UVA, which has the worst football program of all 4.

I hope they all get left behind so we can merge I just think it’s more likely this doomsday scenario unfolds than the best case scenario the OP laid out.

 

[Exit 4]

The slicing and dicing of the ACC/B12 after you get past UNC + a partner exiting seems wildly difficult to do.

So many factors in play including; i) where the B12 lands on their next deal, ii) where the B12 is really at on exit fees, iii) how the P4 CFP dance shakes out over the next 4-6 years iii) what do the media companies really want to pay for-what do they value iv) what is the state of media - still hungry? v) what does ND decide and vi) politics.

 

[bendm]

So many factors in play including; i) where the B12 lands on their next deal, ii) where the B12 is really at on exit fees, iii) how the P4 CFP dance shakes out over the next 4-6 years iii) what do the media companies really want to pay for-what do they value iv) what is the state of media - still hungry? v) what does ND decide and vi) politics.

Sure but the big12 tv deal expires in 2031 when the ACC exit fee hits its lowest point before the GOR expires in 2036 and that timing will enable them to poach from the ACC just like they did with the PAC. So I don’t get why people think some teams might want to leave the big12 for a watered down ACC at best, when they’ll be locked into a new long term deal with high exit fees

 

[hank970]

Sure but the big12 tv deal expires in 2031 when the ACC exit fee hits its lowest point before the GOR expires in 2036 and that timing will enable them to poach from the ACC just like they did with the PAC. So I don’t get why people think some teams might want to leave the big12 for a watered down ACC at best, when they’ll be locked into a new long term deal with high exit fees

Geography and/or cultural fit, in the case of Cincy, UCF, and WVU. The opportunity to renew some old rivalries might be a factor too. But would geography and reestablishing old rivalries outweigh ($$$) and other considerations?

 

[ZooCougar]

Sure but the big12 tv deal expires in 2031 when the ACC exit fee hits its lowest point before the GOR expires in 2036 and that timing will enable them to poach from the ACC just like they did with the PAC. So I don’t get why people think some teams might want to leave the big12 for a watered down ACC at best, when they’ll be locked into a new long term deal with high exit fees

They didn't "Poach" the PAC. The PAC blew up into smithereens. The Big 12 was the best available lifeboat. Utah grudingly joined. The Four corners Presidents were as cynical as they could be about it.

 

[CL82]

They didn't "Poach" the PAC. The PAC blew up into smithereens. The Big 12 was the best available lifeboat. Utah grudingly joined. The Four corners Presidents were as cynical as they could be about it.

Yeah, it kind of bothered me at the time that we were enthusiastic about joining and didn't end up getting an offer while they begrudgingly accepted theirs.

 

[B1GEast]

I agree on SEC getting their choice.
The issue with UNC and UVA is that they aren’t football schools in the SEC mold.
If you look at who SEC has added, they’ve been very selective in going after football schools in a geographic region.

I get Clemson and FSU are redundant to Florida and USC, but those are the biggest football brands in ACC and would add the most football $’s.

UNC and UVA fit the BIG model. State flagships, big brands, solid academics.

Regardless, I think the question is whether anyone after these four leave. And if that holds, is that enough to lure WVU, USF, and Cincy from Big 12 along with UConn. Still a decent league if that holds. Certainly a rival to Big 12.

UNC and Virginia are probably the only schools that the SEC would target if they expand. Nobody else matters to them.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[JeepCSC]

I agree on SEC getting their choice.
The issue with UNC and UVA is that they aren’t football schools in the SEC mold.
If you look at who SEC has added, they’ve been very selective in going after football schools in a geographic region.

The SEC has gone after a mixture of programs. Missouri is not there because of football for instance. UNC and Virginia are the only flagship Southern universities not in the SEC, and UNC at least have already established natural rivalries with Kentucky, South Carolina, and (to a lesser extent) Tennessee.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Is the Big 12 still on ESPN+? Seems like their conference is never on mainstream TV.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[uconnyankee]

The SEC has gone after a mixture of programs. Missouri is not there because of football for instance. UNC and Virginia are the only flagship Southern universities not in the SEC, and UNC at least have already established natural rivalries with Kentucky, South Carolina, and (to a lesser extent) Tennessee.

Fair points. The schools could fit in either conference. I just think Big is a better fit, especially UVA.

 

[freescooter]

I

The SEC has gone after a mixture of programs. Missouri is not there because of football for instance. UNC and Virginia are the only flagship Southern universities not in the SEC, and UNC at least have already established natural rivalries with Kentucky, South Carolina, and (to a lesser extent) Tennessee.

I wouldn’t say that is really true about Missouri. At the time they left the B12 for the SEC they were coming off a very successful stretch. They had a 12-2, 10-4 10-3 records pretty regular top 25 finishes including a #4, and then went 12-2 their 2nd year in the SEC and 11-3 Won the SEC East. Lots of people at the time thought they were the next big deal. I think even the SEC thought they were a real program. They haven’t lived up to the hype but neither have lots of teams. (Hi Nebraska!).

 

[freescooter]

Is the Big 12 still on ESPN+? Seems like their conference is never on mainstream TV.

Lots of conferences, maybe most, are moving games to streaming of one sort or another. There are a ton of “who cares” games every year especially when leagues get too big. Only the team’s fans and the people who bet on those games even care. Especially if they are up against some bigger games. Their version of Butler-Seton Hall (ASU-Colarado perhaps) is espn+ bound.

 

[bendm]

Fair points. The schools could fit in either conference. I just think Big is a better fit, especially UVA.

How can the same people that think the big12 was right to turn down Memphis + $200mill, also think the BIG10 is going to welcome Virginia with open arms ?? The P3 are only going to add the schools that the networks say they’ll pay extra for And the networks don’t care that Virginia is a public flagship U. If That label were inherently valuable the BIG would have added Cal. No one cares about Virginia football.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

 

[huskymedic]

Is the Big 12 still on ESPN+? Seems like their conference is never on mainstream TV.

Whack-a-Mole:

Peacock gets Big 12 men's hoops in new sublicensing deal

Peacock continues to build its sports line-up with a multi-year deal to carry Big 12 men's basketball games.

www.sportsmediawatch.com

-> As a result of the sub-licensing deals, more than 60 Big 12 men’s basketball games will air on platforms other than the conference’s main partners ESPN and Fox Sports. Big 12 men’s games could air on as many as eight outlets — ESPN, ABC, FOX, FS1, CBS, CBSSN, TNT and Peacock.

The Big 12 joins the Big East and Big Ten on Peacock. Between NBC and Peacock, NBC Sports said it will carry nearly 200 men’s and women’s basketball games this coming season. <-

 

[huskymedic]

Long read but cutting to the chase:

“What's next could be even more consequential. Major media rights deals for the Big Ten (2030), Big 12 (2031) and SEC (2034) are set to expire -- as are the NCAA men's basketball tournament and College Football Playoff contracts, both in 2032.”

 

[bendm]

What's next could be even more consequential. Major media rights deals for the Big Ten (2030), Big 12 (2031) and SEC (2034) are set to expire -- as are the NCAA men's basketball tournament and College Football Playoff contracts, both in 2032.”

A conference killing meteor is hurtling towards the ACC and they know it and I’m savoring every minute. The expiration of the P3 deals coincides with the ACC exit fee dropping to $75mill. Once the P3 have bolstered their memberships with the most valuable ACC schools they will be locked into new tv deals with high exit fees by the time the ACC GOR finally expires in 2036. No one can/will be leaving the P3 to join the watered down ACC. In order of worst to best my only hopes are:
1) the P3 doesn’t breakaway leaving us stranded forever
2) there are at least 4 ACC teams leftover (BC, Cuse, Wake, ?) that we can merge with plus USF, Memphis, Tulane so we finally have a home for all sports.
3) those 7 schools merge with the BE into an 18 team conference (8 football/10 Olympic)

 

[Exit 4]

2) there are at least 4 ACC teams leftover (BC, Cuse, Wake, ?) that we can merge with plus USF, Memphis, Tulane so we finally have a home for all sports.
3) those 7 schools merge with the BE into an 18 team conference (8 football/10 Olympic)

The problem with the hybrid conf is that it wont be granted a seat at that P3 table. Instead the hybrid will be in standing with the PAC 12 resurrection zombie as some sort of Tier 2 band. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen and I am not saying the hybrid is a bad outcome. Just saying it might not "save" basketball in the long run.

Btw, throw SMU into that hybrid pool.

Also, the hybrid will immediately beset with an internal power struggle between the football and basketball schools which will result in all of the football schools working to get out starting day 2. And the bottom teams of the BE are rather resource poor with a gap that will only widen. Might be more tolerable if in the process the BE have nots are dropped. Maybe only 4 or 6 of the BE schools move forward.

 

[JMick]

A conference killing meteor is hurtling towards the ACC and they know it and I’m savoring every minute. The expiration of the P3 deals coincides with the ACC exit fee dropping to $75mill. Once the P3 have bolstered their memberships with the most valuable ACC schools they will be locked into new tv deals with high exit fees by the time the ACC GOR finally expires in 2036. No one can/will be leaving the P3 to join the watered down ACC. In order of worst to best my only hopes are:
1) the P3 doesn’t breakaway leaving us stranded forever
2) there are at least 4 ACC teams leftover (BC, Cuse, Wake, ?) that we can merge with plus USF, Memphis, Tulane so we finally have a home for all sports.
3) those 7 schools merge with the BE into an 18 team conference (8 football/10 Olympic)

2&3 are not very good scenarios. The best scenario is that the SEC and B1G want to keep the number of mouths to feed down, we backfill ACC and the only teams not left in it are UNC, Clemson and FSU. Then a few basketball powers from the big east break off and join it because they see the writing on the wall and it guarantees NCAA tournament access.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

I’ve always said the easiest solution is to just split CFB from the NCAA and go NFL Lite. Basketball and Olympic sports go back to regional conferences.