Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[History Geek]

That's why I said "attempted mass exodus". You're right - there are not enough seats at the table outside the ACC for the 7 to be accommodated. It will be like a scene out of Casablanca at Rick's Cafe Americain. There will be a lot of intrigue and skulduggery by the remnants of the ACC to get letters of transit to a P-2 conference headquartered in Lisbon... (Sorry about the Casablanca reference, but somehow I picture the Syracuse AD being a dead ringer for Peter Lorre.)

I see it

 

[Sea Goat]

I see it

 

[ZooCougar]

It depends how many more teams the Big XII would take. If I'm the Big XII I want to get as many big state schools as I can from the leftover ACC to try and position myself as P3. Let the state legislators get all pissy at the idea of being left out of the top and let them be the conferences shield.

If I'm the ACC after Clemson, FSU and UNC depart I raid the Big 12 for Cincy and WVU, add UConn and get the band back together.

 

[ZooCougar]

Sure because there's not much going on in Kansas City and there's 16 times less people there than in NYC. The Big East tournament atmosphere is way better than the Big 12, Big 10, and ACC tournaments.

There's not as much going on, but KC has plenty of other sports distractions between KU, Mizzou, KSU, Royals, Chiefs and Sporting.

 

[JMick]

If I'm the ACC after Clemson, FSU and UNC depart I raid the Big 12 for Cincy and WVU, add UConn and get the band back together.

I think this only works if they succeed in getting a large payout from Clemson, FSU and UNC. They could use that to help Cinci and WVU buy their way out. That would be a good situation for us. I wish they didn't get bullied into saving Stanford and Cal though. That'll be miserable travel.

 

[Huskygrad88]

Madison Garden holds 20,000 people. Maybe you could have 40,000 or so people interested in BET out of 9 million. So interest is only in the handful of bars around Madison Square Garden. For example I was in town for the Super Bowl when it was held at Giants Stadium. You could not go anywhere in the city without someone talking about the Suoerbowl. NYC is a professional sports town.

The Super Bowl had more fans than the Big East Tournament? You don’t say.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

If I'm the ACC after Clemson, FSU and UNC depart I raid the Big 12 for Cincy and WVU, add UConn and get the band back together.

If I'm Cincy or WVU, I wouldn't leave the Big12 for a depleted ACC.

 

[JMick]

If I'm Cincy or WVU, I wouldn't leave the Big12 for a depleted ACC.

By all accounts WVU has not been happy in the Big XII. I think if they could get Cinci to move with them and be reunited with Pitt and Louisville, they would.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

By all accounts WVU has not been happy in the Big XII. I think if they could get Cinci to move with them and be reunited with Pitt and Louisville, they would.

That could be, but I think Louisville and Pitt would rather go to the Big12 than stay in a depleted ACC and if/when they could depart, that would cement Cinci and WVU staying in the Big12. The linchpin is if/how the ACC falls apart. Definitely lots of scenarios - all depends on if/how the magnificent 7 are able to depart and what sort of exit fee/GOR settlements come into ACC cofers.... Do we have a scenario similar to the PAC implosion, or don't we? Time will tell.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

That could be, but I think Louisville and Pitt would rather go to the Big12 than stay in a depleted ACC and if/when they could depart, that would cement Cinci and WVU staying in the Big12. The linchpin is if/how the ACC falls apart. Definitely lots of scenarios - all depends on if/how the magnificent 7 are able to depart and what sort of exit fee/GOR settlements come into ACC cofers.... Do we have a scenario similar to the PAC implosion, or don't we? Time will tell.

That depends on how aggressive the ACC
All things equal the ACC is a no brainer for both of them plus UCF and Cincinnati.
The real question is will they panic
The ACC is in better markets on average than the Big 12
Even without FSU and Clemson . FSU and Clemson are not UT and Oklahoma .

 

[CJasmer]

The Super Bowl had more fans than the Big East Tournament? You don’t say.

I was just pointing out that college sports are not that important in NYC. People have many interests - arts, fashion, theatre, literature, and restaurants, etc. I lived in NYC for over 10 years and never recall anyone talking about BET.

 

[Exit 4]

Seems like it all comes down to Fox vs ESPN… as to which one will actually enable a raid / expansion.

 

[Kolumbo]

No one is leaving the Big 12 unless it's for the SEC or B1G. The 4 corner schools, Okie State, the Kansases, WVU, Iowa State, Texas Tech, plus Cinci, Houston, UCF. That's a much more solid public foundation than the ACC will have. 13 large public schools. Then you got BYU, Baylor, TCU. The ACC is in Barney big time.

 

[uconnyankee]

I think this only works if they succeed in getting a large payout from Clemson, FSU and UNC. They could use that to help Cinci and WVU buy their way out. That would be a good situation for us. I wish they didn't get bullied into saving Stanford and Cal though. That'll be miserable travel.

I think you could also add WSU and OSU along with San Diego State for Western pod

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

That depends on how aggressive the ACC
All things equal the ACC is a no brainer for both of them plus UCF and Cincinnati.
The real question is will they panic
The ACC is in better markets on average than the Big 12
Even without FSU and Clemson . FSU and Clemson are not UT and Oklahoma .

I think you're over valuing the ACC leftovers and under valuing the Big12. It's about football eyeballs and the Big12 is greater than an ACC without FSU and Clemson. It's not just about markets - it's about actual eyeballs (see exhibit 1: BC, exhibit 2: Wake Forest, etc.). If ESPN was so jazzed about the ACC, they'd have already exercised their option to extend. They haven't. And that's WITH FSU and Clemson on board. Think of the calculus WITHOUT those two.

 

[Husky92]

Seems like it all comes down to Fox vs ESPN… as to which one will actually enable a raid / expansion.

Don’t underestimate this reality. It isn’t the conferences making these decisions. It all comes down to the networks offering $$. If ESPN is willing to pay, BIG 12 teams will jump. Same goes with FOX…

 

[ZooCougar]

By all accounts WVU has not been happy in the Big XII. I think if they could get Cinci to move with them and be reunited with Pitt and Louisville, they would.

They would have to consider it.

 

[HuskyHawk]

There's not as much going on, but KC has plenty of other sports distractions between KU, Mizzou, KSU, Royals, Chiefs and Sporting.

But not NBA and NHL which are the main competitors in March at sports bars across the northeast. Metro NYC has five of those teams. I still hope KC could lure the Kings back.

 

[uconnyankee]

I think you're over valuing the ACC leftovers and under valuing the Big12. It's about football eyeballs and the Big12 is greater than an ACC without FSU and Clemson. It's not just about markets - it's about actual eyeballs (see exhibit 1: BC, exhibit 2: Wake Forest, etc.). If ESPN was so jazzed about the ACC, they'd have already exercised their option to extend. They haven't. And that's WITH FSU and Clemson on board. Think of the calculus WITHOUT those two.

I think there are too many moving parts at the moment to make any additions. Reality is, anything without FSU and Clemson moving forward is a hit. But this isn’t as much of a hit like losing Texas or OU.
At some point, ACC will likely lose programs to P2 and then add.
It depends on who they lose, the cost to leave, and available adds. Nobody is making moves until they have to.

 

[uconndogs]

I think there are too many moving parts at the moment to make any additions. Reality is, anything without FSU and Clemson moving forward is a hit. But this isn’t as much of a hit like losing Texas or OU.
At some point, ACC will likely lose programs to P2 and then add.
It depends on who they lose, the cost to leave, and available adds. Nobody is making moves until they have to.

If FSU and Clemson get out, UVA and UNC won't be far behind (BiG is my guess). Then the ACC implodes.

 

[The Yakk]

If I'm Cincy or WVU, I wouldn't leave the Big12 for a depleted ACC.

It's a "depleted" Big12, too.

After TX and OK leave, who is the big brand/ratings draw in that conference? Which teams will be perennial contenders for a natty?

 

[HuskyHawk]

It's a "depleted" Big12, too.

After TX and OK leave, who is the big brand/ratings draw in that conference? Which teams will be perennial contenders for a natty?

The rest of the ACC is still just as strong as the Big XII, but with a better region, better history (the west cost additions not withstanding) and better brand names. If it is just FSU and Clemson, the ACC >>> Big XII. If they lose UNC and Miami, then it shifts towards the Big XII. But the smart move for both is to trade Stanford and Cal for WVU and Cincinnati. Both conferences and all four schools would be better off.

 

[Rufus]

The rest of the ACC is still just as strong as the Big XII, but with a better region, better history (the west cost additions not withstanding) and better brand names. If it is just FSU and Clemson, the ACC >>> Big XII. If they lose UNC and Miami, then it shifts towards the Big XII. But the smart move for both is to trade Stanford and Cal for WVU and Cincinnati. Both conferences and all four schools would be better off.

Stanford and Cal had no interest in the Big 12. They didn't want to associate with lesser academic schools. If the B1G doesn't want them, the ACC is their only option.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Seems like it all comes down to Fox vs ESPN… as to which one will actually enable a raid / expansion.

It does and there's a good possibility it comes down to more of not wanting to be reacting to the other one going first.

 

[CL82]

That could be, but I think Louisville and Pitt would rather go to the Big12 than stay in a depleted ACC and if/when they could depart, that would cement Cinci and WVU staying in the Big12. The linchpin is if/how the ACC falls apart. Definitely lots of scenarios - all depends on if/how the magnificent 7 are able to depart and what sort of exit fee/GOR settlements come into ACC cofers.... Do we have a scenario similar to the PAC implosion, or don't we? Time will tell.

For a while at least, any leftover schools are going to be sitting on a windfall of exit fees and GOR buyouts. That will probably create an economic incentive to stay in the ACC in the near term.