Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[ZooCougar]

If history holds true, jilted conferences don't use the exit fees they received to entice new schools to join the conference. In all honesty it really depends whether ESPN wants to continue using the ACC as their house band. If they decide to bankroll it, then the ACC could steal schools like Cincy, West Virginia and UCF from the big 12. Alternatively, they may decide to downgrade them and pay less for the remaining product. In the end, the ACC's they will be exactly whatever ESPN decides it will be. Just as UConn's conference realignment fate has always been exactly whatever ESPN wants it to be.

And the PAC 12 signalled they were willing to offset exit fee costs to some AAC schools. That obviously didn’t go anywhere yet.

 

[CL82]

And nobody has ever gotten this much money. It will be unprecedented.

I feel like both the Big Ten and SEC get significantly more. What am I missing? Are you just saying that none of the schools have ever gotten that much yet?

 

[ZooCougar]

I feel like both the Big Ten and SEC get significantly more. What am I missing? Are you just saying that none of the schools have ever gotten that much yet?

Quite a bit actually.

I’m talking about buyout money. You’re talking about something different.

 

[CL82]

Quite a bit actually.

I’m talking about buyout money. You’re talking about something different.

Yeah, I'm completely lost about whatever point you're trying to make. Which isn't to say that it isn't a good one, it's just I'm not getting what you're trying to say.

 

[ZooCougar]

Yeah, I'm completely lost about whatever point you're trying to make. Which isn't to say that it isn't a good one, it's just I'm not getting what you're trying to say.

With lots of buyout money, more than ever before they will have options and it will probably incentivize the ACC remnants to stay in place.

Plus why would you sign up for guaranteed less money and more travel?

 

[UConnJim]

With lots of buyout money, more than ever before they will have options and it will probably incentivize the ACC remnants to stay in place.

Plus why would you sign up for guaranteed less money and more travel?

The media revenue difference between the ACC and the Big 12 is the ACC Network. But, how long will the ACCN be a cash cow? That depends on how quickly cord cutting continues and what schools remain in the ACC in the future. And, if the top football brands leave the ACC, their media contract will go down.

As for travel, for a school like Louisville, the Big 12 seems to be less travel than the ACC. The Texas schools are closer to Louisville than Miami or BC. The Kansas schools are closer than FSU. The Utah and Arizona schools are closer than Stanford and Cal. Iowa St. is closer than Syracuse. Cincinnati is only a bus ride from Louisville. And, what if a school like Pitt leaves for the Big 12 as well?

 

[CL82]

With lots of buyout money, more than ever before they will have options and it will probably incentivize the ACC remnants to stay in place.

Plus why would you sign up for guaranteed less money and more travel?

Agree. That is exactly what the big east did with us, Cincinnati and, maybe USF. I feel like for a while. We were getting an extra 5 million.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

With lots of buyout money, more than ever before they will have options and it will probably incentivize the ACC remnants to stay in place.

Plus why would you sign up for guaranteed less money and more travel?

The buyout payments are not a massive, immediate windfall. They're usually spread out over 5 years... Let's say 6 schools leave the ACC to the tune of 75m each. Total is 450m. Spread over 12 remaining schools over 5 years that's only $5m per school per year. Not really life changing... another reality is that when you lop off the top ACC brands, there'll be an immediate reduction in tv valuation by ESPN. When the top ACC brands announce they are going to leave, the mid tier ACC schools will immediately be on the horn with Yormark and the Big12 will choose between the likes of Louisville, VA Tech, possibly GA Tech, NC State, etc. That'll leave behind the likes of BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Wake, possibly Duke, SMU, California, Stanford. Not tv ratings juggernauts; they don't compare favorably with the Big12 tv ratings.

 

[CL82]

When the top ACC brands announce they are going to leave, the mid tier ACC schools will immediately be on the horn with Yormark and the Big12 will choose between the likes of Louisville, VA Tech, possibly GA Tech, NC State, etc

I think it's equally likely that the ACC will reach out to schools that historically have wanted to join the conference to backfill, including Connecticut, and big 12 schools Cincinnati, West Virginia, and UCF. Granted, the schools aren't the equivalent of the departing schools, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that the big 12 will be able to read the ACC. As I have noted previously, it is entirely going to be up to ESPN.

 

[prankster]

The media revenue difference between the ACC and the Big 12 is the ACC Network. But, how long will the ACCN be a cash cow? That depends on how quickly cord cutting continues and what schools remain in the ACC in the future. And, if the top football brands leave the ACC, their media contract will go down.

As for travel, for a school like Louisville, the Big 12 seems to be less travel than the ACC. The Texas schools are closer to Louisville than Miami or BC. The Kansas schools are closer than FSU. The Utah and Arizona schools are closer than Stanford and Cal. Iowa St. is closer than Syracuse. Cincinnati is only a bus ride from Louisville. And, what if a school like Pitt leaves for the Big 12 as well?

Yours is a very understated, but very good point.

As the ACC loses it's traditional schools/rivalries, the ongoing value of ACCN begins to come, very much, into play.

The value of the network, itself, is a questionable proposition at some certain point.

 

[RuffRuff]

The buyout payments are not a massive, immediate windfall. They're usually spread out over 5 years... Let's say 6 schools leave the ACC to the tune of 75m each. Total is 450m. Spread over 12 remaining schools over 5 years that's only $5m per school per year. Not really life changing... another reality is that when you lop off the top ACC brands, there'll be an immediate reduction in tv valuation by ESPN. When the top ACC brands announce they are going to leave, the mid tier ACC schools will immediately be on the horn with Yormark and the Big12 will choose between the likes of Louisville, VA Tech, possibly GA Tech, NC State, etc. That'll leave behind the likes of BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Wake, possibly Duke, SMU, California, Stanford. Not tv ratings juggernauts; they don't compare favorably with the Big12 tv ratings.

Dead nuts spot on.

More than money today, schools want a stable home right now that has long term staying power & relevancy. The ACC has zero stability. They themselves are a giant hodge podge, couple state flagships hoops schools here, couple of southern football schools, a Boston Catholic, a city commuter school, two Bay Area schools, SMU/Wake. I'd argue that the B12 has more conformity in school type than the ACC. The ACC is as good as dead if the Big4 leave. No one cares about short term money ahead of having a long term home.

If Stanford/Cal don't find a way into the B10 to pod up with the other 4 Pac12 leavers, then my hunch is that they'd just trying to figure something out in the new Pac once it firms up. For two olympic sports heavy schools, the travel to the ACC or anywhere eastward long term isn't sustainable on any level.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

I think it's equally likely that the ACC will reach out to schools that historically have wanted to join the conference to backfill, including Connecticut, and big 12 schools Cincinnati, West Virginia, and UCF. Granted, the schools aren't the equivalent of the departing schools, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that the big 12 will be able to read the ACC. As I have noted previously, it is entirely going to be up to ESPN.

Yes, ESPN will play a large role in the future ACC after the exits happen and it'll be driven by tv metrics, which will be in the Big12's favor because ~40% of the ACC's value leaves when its top 4-6 brands depart.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Dead nuts spot on.

More than money today, schools want a stable home right now that has long term staying power & relevancy. The ACC has zero stability. They themselves are a giant hodge podge, couple state flagships hoops schools here, couple of southern football schools, a Boston Catholic, a city commuter school, two Bay Area schools, SMU/Wake. I'd argue that the B12 has more conformity in school type than the ACC. The ACC is as good as dead if the Big4 leave. No one cares about short term money ahead of having a long term home.

If Stanford/Cal don't find a way into the B10 to pod up with the other 4 Pac12 leavers, then my hunch is that they'd just trying to figure something out in the new Pac once it firms up. For two olympic sports heavy schools, the travel to the ACC or anywhere eastward long term isn't sustainable on any level.

100%

 

[CL82]

Yes, ESPN will play a large role in the future ACC after the exits happen and it'll be driven by tv metrics, which will be in the Big12's favor because ~40% of the ACC's value leaves when its top 4-6 brands depart.

And that's a critical factor, but another critical factor is the need for content. Right now ESPN splits the big 12 contract but has exclusive rights to the ACC schools. It may be worth their while to keep the ACC together and some fashion.

The other thing to think about is that ACC schools moving from the ACC to SEC essentially means that ESPN is going to have to double the amount it pays for those schools. They may be willing to do that for some schools, but one has to wonder how selective they would be.

I don't know what the answer to all that is, but I know the analysis is more than just looking at ratings.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

And that's a critical factor, but another critical factor is the need for content. Right now ESPN splits the big 12 contract but has exclusive rights to the ACC schools. It may be worth their while to keep the ACC together and some fashion.

The other thing to think about is that ACC schools moving from the ACC to SEC essentially means that ESPN is going to have to double the amount it pays for those schools. They may be willing to do that for some schools, but one has to wonder how selective they would be.

I don't know what the answer to all that is, but I know the analysis is more than just looking at ratings.

Definitely agree. I can see 2 ACC schools to the SEC; four is more difficult for some of the reasons you said. If SEC does 4, then it's a real long term play and maybe it's a half share agreement for the last 2 for several/many years (ESPN and the SEC can get creative in terms of the numbers when they renew their deal in 2030/2031).

 

[CL82]

Definitely agree. I can see 2 ACC schools to the SEC; four is more difficult for some of the reasons you said. If SEC does 4, then it's a real long term play and maybe it's a half share agreement for the last 2 for several/many years (ESPN and the SEC can get creative in terms of the numbers when they renew their deal in 2030/2031).

I'm inclined to think the same thing, it would be two schools and probably no more than two to the Big Ten. Connecticut and the eastern big 12 schools become the logical replacements at that point for the ACC. I could see ESPN, keeping the revenue roughly flat. But, honestly, who knows?

 

[freescooter]

View attachment 110777

• UNC and the SEC have shared values. When UNC president Peter Hans sought to explain the recent UNC debacle where athletes were found not to have attended classes. SEC conference commissioner Greg Sankey commented "Your mistake was bothering to schedule classes at all. No classes, no classes to miss."

Hey UNC is a highly rated academic institution. Students-athletes attended fake classes. Have some respect!

 

[CL82]

Hey UNC is a highly rated academic institution. Students-athletes attended fake classes. Have some respect!

Well, they sometimes attend fake classes

 

[UConnJim]

And that's a critical factor, but another critical factor is the need for content. Right now ESPN splits the big 12 contract but has exclusive rights to the ACC schools. It may be worth their while to keep the ACC together and some fashion.

The other thing to think about is that ACC schools moving from the ACC to SEC essentially means that ESPN is going to have to double the amount it pays for those schools. They may be willing to do that for some schools, but one has to wonder how selective they would be.

I don't know what the answer to all that is, but I know the analysis is more than just looking at ratings.

The SECN in North Carolina and Virginia alone will pay for the additions of UNC and UVA.

 

[champs99and04]

If the ACC has an Exodus of its most valuable programs, it supplants the Pac 12 as the most valuable "G8" conference. At that point, it may well become the "P2" and everyone else. It's unclear where that leaves the Big 12.

I think UNC leaving would be the death-knell for the ACC. FSU and Clemson have already been very vocal about wanting to jump ship, and at that point, it starts to look a lot like the Big East circa 2011. Depending on how much the TV deal craters, schools like Syracuse and BC would have to think legitimately about re-joining the Big East and forming a football-only regional conference with the likes of UConn and Temple. The wind is already blowing in that direction based on their OOC scheduling recently.

If they decide to bankroll it, then the ACC could steal schools like Cincy, West Virginia and UCF from the big 12.

Are schools like Cincy and UCF really worth stealing, though? I think the ACC adding a couple of g5 looking programs like that would be the best way to accelerate the departure of every other program of value (NC State, Miami, GT, VT, maybe Louisville or Pitt). It'd be doing the Big 12 a huge favor, if anything, by taking two of its least valuable properties off its hands just as several of the big boys hit the open market. You probably have a better feel for the TV aspect of it than me, but on the surface the Big 12 in that scenario becomes a far more desirable league.

 

[Purple Stein]

The SECN in North Carolina and Virginia alone will pay for the additions of UNC and UVA.

UVA to the SEC doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Rumor this morning of UVA to the Big Ten, though.

 

[CL82]

Are schools like Cincy and UCF really worth stealing, though? I think the ACC adding a couple of g5 looking programs like that would be the best way to accelerate the departure of every other program of value (NC State, Miami, GT, VT, maybe Louisville or Pitt). It'd be doing the Big 12 a huge favor, if anything, by taking two of its least valuable properties off its hands just as several of the big boys hit the open market.

I don't disagree, but you have to thank "triage". You are down programs and need additional content. Plus, stealing programs from your closest competitor makes a statement about hierarchy.

 

[RuffRuff]

UVA to the SEC doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Rumor this morning of UVA to the Big Ten, though.

To me UNC and UVa to the B10 makes way too much sense, together as original flagships in a conference full of nothing but AAU state flagships with strong academics. They also likely have a better chance taking Duke with them there than the SEC. Stick those two in a pod with Maryland, Rutgers and Penn St. Calling this all bluffing to stir the pot until the real action takes place. This is like throwing a rumor out that you want to take the hot blonde to the prom when you really want the brunette.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[FfldCntyFan]

If this is the new reality our leadership should find out what the cost would be for B1G membership, then find a plan to make it work.