Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Dead nuts spot on.

More than money today, schools want a stable home right now that has long term staying power & relevancy. The ACC has zero stability. They themselves are a giant hodge podge, couple state flagships hoops schools here, couple of southern football schools, a Boston Catholic, a city commuter school, two Bay Area schools, SMU/Wake. I'd argue that the B12 has more conformity in school type than the ACC. The ACC is as good as dead if the Big4 leave. No one cares about short term money ahead of having a long term home.

If Stanford/Cal don't find a way into the B10 to pod up with the other 4 Pac12 leavers, then my hunch is that they'd just trying to figure something out in the new Pac once it firms up. For two olympic sports heavy schools, the travel to the ACC or anywhere eastward long term isn't sustainable on any level.

100%

 

[CL82]

Yes, ESPN will play a large role in the future ACC after the exits happen and it'll be driven by tv metrics, which will be in the Big12's favor because ~40% of the ACC's value leaves when its top 4-6 brands depart.

And that's a critical factor, but another critical factor is the need for content. Right now ESPN splits the big 12 contract but has exclusive rights to the ACC schools. It may be worth their while to keep the ACC together and some fashion.

The other thing to think about is that ACC schools moving from the ACC to SEC essentially means that ESPN is going to have to double the amount it pays for those schools. They may be willing to do that for some schools, but one has to wonder how selective they would be.

I don't know what the answer to all that is, but I know the analysis is more than just looking at ratings.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

And that's a critical factor, but another critical factor is the need for content. Right now ESPN splits the big 12 contract but has exclusive rights to the ACC schools. It may be worth their while to keep the ACC together and some fashion.

The other thing to think about is that ACC schools moving from the ACC to SEC essentially means that ESPN is going to have to double the amount it pays for those schools. They may be willing to do that for some schools, but one has to wonder how selective they would be.

I don't know what the answer to all that is, but I know the analysis is more than just looking at ratings.

Definitely agree. I can see 2 ACC schools to the SEC; four is more difficult for some of the reasons you said. If SEC does 4, then it's a real long term play and maybe it's a half share agreement for the last 2 for several/many years (ESPN and the SEC can get creative in terms of the numbers when they renew their deal in 2030/2031).

 

[CL82]

Definitely agree. I can see 2 ACC schools to the SEC; four is more difficult for some of the reasons you said. If SEC does 4, then it's a real long term play and maybe it's a half share agreement for the last 2 for several/many years (ESPN and the SEC can get creative in terms of the numbers when they renew their deal in 2030/2031).

I'm inclined to think the same thing, it would be two schools and probably no more than two to the Big Ten. Connecticut and the eastern big 12 schools become the logical replacements at that point for the ACC. I could see ESPN, keeping the revenue roughly flat. But, honestly, who knows?

 

[freescooter]

View attachment 110777

• UNC and the SEC have shared values. When UNC president Peter Hans sought to explain the recent UNC debacle where athletes were found not to have attended classes. SEC conference commissioner Greg Sankey commented "Your mistake was bothering to schedule classes at all. No classes, no classes to miss."

Hey UNC is a highly rated academic institution. Students-athletes attended fake classes. Have some respect!

 

[CL82]

Hey UNC is a highly rated academic institution. Students-athletes attended fake classes. Have some respect!

Well, they sometimes attend fake classes

 

[UConnJim]

And that's a critical factor, but another critical factor is the need for content. Right now ESPN splits the big 12 contract but has exclusive rights to the ACC schools. It may be worth their while to keep the ACC together and some fashion.

The other thing to think about is that ACC schools moving from the ACC to SEC essentially means that ESPN is going to have to double the amount it pays for those schools. They may be willing to do that for some schools, but one has to wonder how selective they would be.

I don't know what the answer to all that is, but I know the analysis is more than just looking at ratings.

The SECN in North Carolina and Virginia alone will pay for the additions of UNC and UVA.

 

[champs99and04]

If the ACC has an Exodus of its most valuable programs, it supplants the Pac 12 as the most valuable "G8" conference. At that point, it may well become the "P2" and everyone else. It's unclear where that leaves the Big 12.

I think UNC leaving would be the death-knell for the ACC. FSU and Clemson have already been very vocal about wanting to jump ship, and at that point, it starts to look a lot like the Big East circa 2011. Depending on how much the TV deal craters, schools like Syracuse and BC would have to think legitimately about re-joining the Big East and forming a football-only regional conference with the likes of UConn and Temple. The wind is already blowing in that direction based on their OOC scheduling recently.

If they decide to bankroll it, then the ACC could steal schools like Cincy, West Virginia and UCF from the big 12.

Are schools like Cincy and UCF really worth stealing, though? I think the ACC adding a couple of g5 looking programs like that would be the best way to accelerate the departure of every other program of value (NC State, Miami, GT, VT, maybe Louisville or Pitt). It'd be doing the Big 12 a huge favor, if anything, by taking two of its least valuable properties off its hands just as several of the big boys hit the open market. You probably have a better feel for the TV aspect of it than me, but on the surface the Big 12 in that scenario becomes a far more desirable league.

 

[Purple Stein]

The SECN in North Carolina and Virginia alone will pay for the additions of UNC and UVA.

UVA to the SEC doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Rumor this morning of UVA to the Big Ten, though.

 

[CL82]

Are schools like Cincy and UCF really worth stealing, though? I think the ACC adding a couple of g5 looking programs like that would be the best way to accelerate the departure of every other program of value (NC State, Miami, GT, VT, maybe Louisville or Pitt). It'd be doing the Big 12 a huge favor, if anything, by taking two of its least valuable properties off its hands just as several of the big boys hit the open market.

I don't disagree, but you have to thank "triage". You are down programs and need additional content. Plus, stealing programs from your closest competitor makes a statement about hierarchy.

 

[RuffRuff]

UVA to the SEC doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Rumor this morning of UVA to the Big Ten, though.

To me UNC and UVa to the B10 makes way too much sense, together as original flagships in a conference full of nothing but AAU state flagships with strong academics. They also likely have a better chance taking Duke with them there than the SEC. Stick those two in a pod with Maryland, Rutgers and Penn St. Calling this all bluffing to stir the pot until the real action takes place. This is like throwing a rumor out that you want to take the hot blonde to the prom when you really want the brunette.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[FfldCntyFan]

If this is the new reality our leadership should find out what the cost would be for B1G membership, then find a plan to make it work.

 

[Stinger92860]

If this is the new reality our leadership should find out what the cost would be for B1G membership, then find a plan to make it work.

Maybe we can get PE to fund us. Have at it.

 

[JeepCSC]

To me UNC and UVa to the B10 makes way too much sense, together as original flagships in a conference full of nothing but AAU state flagships with strong academics. They also likely have a better chance taking Duke with them there than the SEC. Stick those two in a pod with Maryland, Rutgers and Penn St. Calling this all bluffing to stir the pot until the real action takes place. This is like throwing a rumor out that you want to take the hot blonde to the prom when you really want the brunette.

UNC academics probably would love the B10. UNC fans really want nothing to do with Rutgers or Penn State or Ohio State , let alone Minnesota or Iowa or Washington. Our rivals are Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

 

[freescooter]

To me UNC and UVa to the B10 makes way too much sense, together as original flagships in a conference full of nothing but AAU state flagships with strong academics. They also likely have a better chance taking Duke with them there than the SEC. Stick those two in a pod with Maryland, Rutgers and Penn St. Calling this all bluffing to stir the pot until the real action takes place. This is like throwing a rumor out that you want to take the hot blonde to the prom when you really want the brunette.

I doubt UNC to the Big 10. Maybe Virginia and maybe if they want a partner both. As I said elsewhere UNC has been trying to upgrade football for the last 20 years. They haven’t succeeded. Now they are trying with a 73 year old head coach who hasn’t coached college kids in 40 years. And even if he succeeds in making them good it is questionable whether it will be sustainable, especially moving up in class.

Virginia has been even more mediocre in football. My guess is we see Rutgers redux if these moves get made. I’m not sure what the basketball impact will be. Though I could easily see UNC taking a step back when they just become another team in either of the P2 leagues.

What I think would be poetic justice though would be UNC and Virginia going elsewhere and Clemson and FSU remaining behind.

 

[CL82]

What I think would be poetic justice though would be UNC and Virginia going elsewhere and Clemson and FSU remaining behind.

It would be ironic, but in many ways, it's the worst possible outcome for us since neither Clemson or FSU have been advocates for us joining the ACC. I do think it's a possibility though.

 

[RuffRuff]

I doubt UNC to the Big 10. Maybe Virginia and maybe if they want a partner both. As I said elsewhere UNC has been trying to upgrade football for the last 20 years. They haven’t succeeded. Now they are trying with a 73 year old head coach who hasn’t coached college kids in 40 years. And even if he succeeds in making them good it is questionable whether it will be sustainable, especially moving up in class.

Virginia has been even more mediocre in football. My guess is we see Rutgers redux if these moves get made. I’m not sure what the basketball impact will be. Though I could easily see UNC taking a step back when they just become another team in either of the P2 leagues.

What I think would be poetic justice though would be UNC and Virginia going elsewhere and Clemson and FSU remaining behind.

TB10 is much more open minded to bringing on cohesive yet significant AAU state flagships in lieu of a below the bar football program (see Rutgers/Maryland). They build based on consistency and keeping the integrity of their culture as much as they focus on market share & football. The SEC seems a bit more commercial and on the FB end. Needless to say, I'd think both would want to have presence in the states of NC & Virginia (DC & Charlotte/Triangle) as two states that could go in either direction.

Chicken or egg with some of these programs becoming good - Beli will bring eye balls, get recruits, develop a foundation for what is apparently his son as he seasons up at UW. Saban is out of the Beli tree and is arguably the best college FB coach of all time. It's really about what he's got left in the tank and how much of that aligns with this new generation of athletes, as it was growing pretty obsolete in NE. I don't think not having coached college kids in awhile is that big a factor, as the NFL is a young guys sport. Most of the league is in their early 20's.

 

[uconndogs]

I would be willing to bet that the BiG and SEC have already "agreed" on who goes after which programs. It's looking more a more like a 40 team professional football league with two 20 team conferences. I think they will try to wrap up hoops that way as well.

 

[CTBballfan243]

I would be willing to bet that the BiG and SEC have already "agreed" on who goes after which programs. It's looking more a more like a 40 team professional football league with two 20 team conferences. I think they will try to wrap up hoops that way as well.

That seems like a smart play by the SEC and B1G. Two 20 team leagues and then do combined SEC/B1G tournaments at the end of the year in Football, basketball and Baseball. I certainly can see that happening.

 

[Jetskies]

Beli will bring eye balls, get recruits, develop a foundation for what is apparently his son as he seasons up at UW.

stephen (and brian) are already at UNC.

 

[Hamms30]

if only the B10 could add a school that would make them a perennial contender in Men's and Women's basketball and give the conference a chance at holding a trifecta of national championships every year. Would have been a shame to have regular season match-ups of Bueckers v. Clark or Sanogo/Clingan v. Edey. Man those ratings would have sucked.

clutches pearls** but muh ay ay youuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu, let's just convince Virginia to get good a hockey instead.

 

[Kolumbo]

I would be willing to bet that the BiG and SEC have already "agreed" on who goes after which programs. It's looking more a more like a 40 team professional football league with two 20 team conferences. I think they will try to wrap up hoops that way as well.

I'll take that bet. They are the P2 no matter how you slice it. I'm willing to bet they stab each other in the back to make more money than the other. I can't believe the SEC hasn't already tried to lock the Big Ten out of the South or South-East especially with the Big Ten grabbing the west coast.

 

[RuffRuff]

I'll take that bet. They are the P2 no matter how you slice it. I'm willing to bet they stab each other in the back to make more money than the other. I can't believe the SEC hasn't already tried to lock the Big Ten out of the South or South-East especially with the Big Ten grabbing the west coast.

Likely partially in bed together, but also have their own agendas. UNC is the crowned jewel of what is left in expansion if the ACC implodes and could see the 2 fighting for it. New, significant turf for either conference, can culturally go in either direction. If UNC does go SEC, doubt NCSt gets anything more than B12. Could see Duke going B10 and just playing UNC in an annual OOC game to keep the rivalry going.

 

[CL82]

I'll take that bet. They are the P2 no matter how you slice it. I'm willing to bet they stab each other in the back to make more money than the other. I can't believe the SEC hasn't already tried to lock the Big Ten out of the South or South-East especially with the Big Ten grabbing the west coast.

It's more efficient to have a gentleman's agreement about where expansion will or will not take place. That isn't to say that they're not competitors, they just may not see the need to be dumb about it.