Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[Rufus]

If SMU is added by the ACC as is reported, it is essentially an admission by the ACC that they are going to cease to exist in 10 years.

SMU is a negative value driver on a per-team payout in any future media contract. They are only accretive now because they are not taking any money for 7 years. But once they are granted equal payout in 7 years as reported, they actually drive down the revenue for ACC member schools. So if this is deal is accepted, it is essentially an admission that more than half of the ACC is committed to be in a different conference by the next media deal and have no interest in trying to salvage the ACC. We knew 100% that FSU and Clemson felt this way, but if this vote goes through, it means that the remaining top ACC schools (Virginia, UNC, NC State, VT, etc) are all pot-committed to blowing up the ACC.

Exactly. It remains to be seen if Stanford and Cal are net negatives for the ACC. Apparently, they are net negatives for the B1G or they would have received invites too. Those two schools are perfect for the B1G in every way except media value.

 

[CL82]

If SMU is added by the ACC as is reported, it is essentially an admission by the ACC that they are going to cease to exist in 10 years.

SMU is a negative value driver on a per-team payout in any future media contract. They are only accretive now because they are not taking any money for 7 years. But once they are granted equal payout in 7 years as reported, they actually drive down the revenue for ACC member schools. So if this is deal is accepted, it is essentially an admission that more than half of the ACC is committed to be in a different conference by the next media deal and have no interest in trying to salvage the ACC. We knew 100% that FSU and Clemson felt this way, but if this vote goes through, it means that the remaining top ACC schools (Virginia, UNC, NC State, VT, etc) are all pot-committed to blowing up the ACC.

The really interesting issue is that if four objectors are basically holding out until all or the vast majority of this money accrues to them, does another school change it to vote to no? I mean no amount of money the ACC allocates to FSU is ever going to placate them. Why bother trying?

 

[upstater]

Not joining the ACC is a blessing in disguise. It's not but when the the top schools leave do you really want to be in a conference that has teams in CA. SMU really? The Big 12 is a much better conference and maybe uconn knows they are next in line when/if they move east. Maybe UConn has no interest in the ACC and giving them back all this money and by the time they get profitable the conference is going to be gutted.

??? The B12 has 2 teams in Utah, 2 in Arizona. ACC has a lot of teams in our geographic footprint. I mean, there's no doubt geography favors the ACC even with Calford.

 

[JeepCSC]

If SMU is added by the ACC as is reported, it is essentially an admission by the ACC that they are going to cease to exist in 10 years.

SMU is a negative value driver on a per-team payout in any future media contract. They are only accretive now because they are not taking any money for 7 years. But once they are granted equal payout in 7 years as reported, they actually drive down the revenue for ACC member schools. So if this is deal is accepted, it is essentially an admission that more than half of the ACC is committed to be in a different conference by the next media deal and have no interest in trying to salvage the ACC. We knew 100% that FSU and Clemson felt this way, but if this vote goes through, it means that the remaining top ACC schools (Virginia, UNC, NC State, VT, etc) are all pot-committed to blowing up the ACC.

Maybe. But it’s unlikely Colorado, Houston, Central Florida or anyone else playing in half-empty stadiums was value accretive for the Big XII in the last couple years. They hit several breaks (most importantly taking PAC money the PAC turned down). The media contract winter is coming, and doubling up on Utah will be judged accordingly.

Really the long and short of it is that life is not easy for anyone outside the Power 2. And if that Nebraska AD is to believed, life might not be getting any better for some schools inside the P2.

 

[superjohn]

Really the long and short of it is that life is not easy for anyone outside the Power 2. And if that Nebraska AD is to believed, life might not be getting any better for some schools inside the P2.

This is the reality. Football will split off and the SEC and Big 10 will control all of it with a handful of teams from both conferences controlling things and the SEC will continue to win all the national championships.

 

[bendm]

ND could threaten to start a new conference with Stanford and California. That would get the ACC motivated.

motivated to do what? Why would ND sacrifice the sweet deal they have going with NBC?

NBC is not going to pay pro rata for Calford and the 5 other schools that would have to join up to form some high major ivy league (Tulane, Rice...? NW isnt leaving the BIG and Duke isnt leaving the ACC).

 

[nelsonmuntz]

motivated to do what? Why would ND sacrifice the sweet deal they have going with NBC?

NBC is not going to pay pro rata for Calford and the 5 other schools that would have to join up to form some high major ivy league (Tulane, Rice...? NW isnt leaving the BIG and Duke isnt leaving the ACC).

There is this thing called negotiating. When you have all the leverage on the counter-party, you can say a lot of things in a negotiation and get the response you want.

 

[JeepCSC]

How is Notre Dame threatening to start a conference they would never join an opening for negotiation?

 

[bendm]

There is this thing called negotiating. When you have all the leverage on the counter-party, you can say a lot of things in a negotiation and get the response you want.

but who has the leverage in this scenario? ND over the ACC? ND over NBC? what exactly is ND threatening either with?

this crack pipe ivy league 2.0 isnt realistc at all. besides tulane and rice who would join? acc schools are stuck in the GOR. NW and Vandy sure as heck arent giving up 60 million to do so

 

[nelsonmuntz]

and who has the leverage in this scenario? ND over the ACC? ND over NBC? what exactly is ND threatening either with? i just laid out while some crack pipe ivy league 2.0 isnt realistc at all

ND over the ACC.

It looks like Stanford and Cal are getting in, so Notre Dame got its way. Like I said, it helps to have all the leverage in a negotiation.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

How is Notre Dame threatening to start a conference they would never join an opening for negotiation?

Notre Dame could wipe its butt on the UNC President's face and it would help their negotiation with the ACC. Notre Dame has been doing it since they joined the ACC.

 

[yuckformak]

The Big12 advantage over the Acc is no team in the Big12 is going anywhere else. They don’t have any other options. While multiple Acc schools may have better options.

This.......the ACC is going to be vastly different. Get rid of UNC, Clemson, FSU, NC State, and maybe the 2 Virginia's. Would you rather be in a Conference with those schools or in the Big 12?

 

[bendm]

ND over the ACC.

It looks like Stanford and Cal are getting in, so Notre Dame got its way. Like I said, it helps to have all the leverage in a negotiation.

what was ND threatening the ACC with? to start a conference with Cal, Stanford, Rice, Tulane and the 3 mid major service academies?

ND would be sacrificing the $10 mill they get from the ACC. would NBC make up for it by paying them $30 mill? how much are the other 7 schools worth to NBC/peacock in this hypo? this theory is less than half-baked.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Very interesting...

That’s what the California board of regents said about UCLA leaving CAL behind . When it becomes a question of survival it’s every man for himself .
Oregon and Washington took 1/2 shares even if they’re leaving ment the destruction of another in state school . I believe that was also a very painful decision for the locals . That’s called survival. . If ACC fell apart UNC would have no choice .
It’s becomes a buyers market and if you play hardball they can easily find a replacement.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

what was ND threatening the ACC with? to start a conference with Cal, Stanford, Rice, Tulane and the 3 mid major service academies?

ND would be sacrificing the $10 mill they get from the ACC. would NBC make up for it by paying them $30 mill? how much are the other 7 schools worth to NBC/peacock in this hypo? this theory is less than half-baked.

Why are you freaking out at me about some inside baseball ACC thing? Chill.

 

[hank970]

No one eight years ago would have thought the B12, as currently composed, was as attractive a conference as the ACC, as currently composed. FSU, Clemson, UNC, Notre Dame, Duke are all elite athletics schools, and many other programs have good athletic histories; it leads or is competitive in major markets. Meanwhile, the B12 has second-tier programs in its many states (its Texas schools are behind Texas and Texas A&M; Oklahoma State is behind Oklahoma; Iowa State is behind Iowa; Kansas, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah are the only states where it is the leader; it has many low-value programs diluting its value.

The only reason people think the B12 is stronger than the ACC is recency bias -- the B12 has been improving its position while the ACC has been bickering and incapable of acting. But there's no reason to assume you can extrapolate recent trends indefinitely into the future.

The B12 has stabilized its position with the Arizona/Colorado/Utah adds, but it has also limited its upside. It is now a large plains-mountain conference that can't easily grow further. If the ACC implodes the B12 is well positioned to become a "best of the rest" third national conference in a P3, but if the ACC holds together it will surpass the B12 in future contracts and be third in a P4.

Considering the latest rounds of conference realignment, it's evident that the B12 and networks perceived some value in the additions they made. Clearly, there were/are other metrics of importance to them that you simply can't recognize or accept. Is it possible they know something that you don't?

Beyond that, every P conference, including the vaunted SEC and B1G, includes schools which aren't state flagships -- second-fiddle, low value schools, in your estimation. Auburn, Clemson, Mississippi State, Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern, Florida State, three ACC schools in North Carolina which aren't UNC, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Pitt, Vanderbilt, Louisville, and so on. Some have enjoyed considerable success on the field and on the court. Conversely, some of the state flagships in those conferences haven't.

 

[CoastAtlantic]

 

[HuskyDogArt]

I don't think the Big XII stopped expanding. I think you'll see another Realignment after this football season. The two most endangered leagues are the ACC and the PAC 10 and I think if FSU and Clemson gets an invite to the SEC, they will do whatever it takes to declare the GOR NILL & VOID. The PAC 10 if Stanford and Cal gets an invite to the B1G, they say bye ASAP.

 

[JeepCSC]

He went to (drumroll please), UNC. As did the governor. They'll do what they can but nothing more.

 

[Rufus]

Doesn't sound like they are connected at the hip to me.

 

[UCFBfan]

1. You have lawyers for friends? You need better friends.

2. So you get information from a friend in a position to know something, and blithely dismiss it to believe in conspiracies you read about on the internet? Just wow. 2023 in a nutshell.

 

[Viet Vet]

ND could threaten to start a new conference with Stanford and California. That would get the ACC motivated.

ND will never join any conference other than the BiG. Geography, shared culture, and demographics will dictate their future.

“Rudy” ain’t leaving metropolitan Chicago.

 

[ramses 2.0]

He went to (drumroll please), UNC. As did the governor. They'll do what they can but nothing more.

They won't be doing much of anything since both will be out of office this year & doesn't matter right now cause UNC not looking to anywhere for awhile

 

[huskymedic]

 

[Patrick79]

Its about getting your foot in the door. People can talk about the ACC getting picked apart in 11-12 years (or I guess sooner if a school comes up with hundreds of millions of dollars I suppose). But in the end our best hope from a football standpoint is the ACC anyway and the whole waiting until the ACC GOR is over isn't a great idea because we may not even survive independence for another 11-12 years.

Lets say we get 10 mil. What is that, an extra $5 mil per year? So lets say we throw that toward essentially paying off the exit fee over a 6 year period. Perhaps if Mora is in a real football league we are competing for some of that bowl incentive money to also help offset the exit fee. In the ACC our attendance goes up for football, more ticket revenue. And on and on.

I don't love the idea of begging but we are in a tough spot. Of course if one doesn't give a damn about the football program, it's definitely not worth it I suppose.

Guess this shows how many unknowns there are about where things are going. My analysis on that move to the ACC is:

• It's break-even: Even after the 6 years, we still have to consider interest and other fees with planning and the transition. It's probably not all that lucrative for Uconn to switch.
• Sports is break-even at best, but may actually decline: I don't think BBall will be better - we're already recruiting top notch and fan interest won't be higher in the ACC, even w/ Duke and UNC. I think Uconn fans are going to be more excited to play at MSG and be a part of the BE's trajectory which is heating up. In Fball: BC, Cuse, Pitt, Lville, WVU, Rutgers didn't do better with a switch to the ACC (and B12 and B10), so I don't think you can automatically count on Uconn doing better.
• Foot in the door is = handcuffs: With a GOR, we'll be on equal footing with every ACC team in a decade when the SEC and B10 come to fill their spots. That's not favorable to us since we'll be competing with FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC, Duke, etc. In other words, we'd need to bank on the ACC holding together which I just don't think can happen given the distribution of revenue. Of course, this is the x-factor. On the other hand, by remaining where we are, we are essentially the most attractive option for conferences for the next decade--the other teams (in the ACC) are off the market for the most part.

I legit believe that the end game for us is probably a 1) re-organized ACC (the left-overs combined with BE), followed by 2) an expanded B12, 3) staying where we are, 4) the ACC as it looks today or 5) B10 (unlikely but could happen depending on how things shift/develop). I'm not seeing the need to lock ourselves into the ACC for break-even revenue while taking ourselves off the market for better options.