Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[Ldandy]

I don't disagree @Fishy, at least in the near term. The engine that makes the Big 12 palatable to Texas is the LHN. Absent a dramatic change in it's profitability ESPN is not going to extend it past it's current term. Texas won't stay in the Big 12 after that happens.

JMO but the engine that makes the Big 12 palatable to Texas is not specifically The LHN. Its the knowledge that they have absolute control over the conference that fuels their ego. They set the agenda and they get whatever legislation they want passed. They know that as long as they stay in their little fiefdom it will remain a P5 Conference. The rest of the conference knows it as well, so those without other options play ball. OU will likely leave when the GOR expires, and Texas will shrug their shoulders and replace them with another pawn who will owe their good fortune to Bevo.

 

[junglehusky]

Only in the near term. OU is as good as gone. Once that happens, the Big 12 is toast. People are acting as if the Big 12 had a choice. They simply did not. The only reason to expand was to secure a network. With no network, the decision not to expand was an easy one.

If OU leaves, why is the B12 toast? I don't see OU + OSU going to the Pac12 anymore. The most likely scenario is OU going to the SEC maybe with one ACC school, say NCState, in 2025-ish. I don't think that would precipitate any crisis, Texas will probably be happy to stay assuming LHN gets renewed, and at that point they'll add Houston to replace OU.

(The good part of this scenario is that it could open a spot in the ACC for UConn. The bad part is it's still 8-9 years away).

 

[SubbaBub]

The speculation has gone completely off the rails. Nothing has changed. The B12 still needs revenue and unless some other revenue source presents itself, selling more games to better markets is the best way to do that.

LHN isn't ready to fold this week. That should surprise no one. OU is still not happy with the future stability of the B12, nor should they be. The other 8 will come to that conclusion sooner rather than later. The B12 is expanding.

The external forces regarding TV/Streaming distribution and the ACCN specifically are still unsettled. The B12 doesn't control the calendar unless a P5 school or two is ready to move.

Nothing will happen until it happens, but it will happen.

What was lost this week is a nice clean and easy ticket to the B12 for UCONN happening this month. Based on what's happened, which of you fools thought this would be clean or easy?

 

[Marty Jackson]

Only in the near term. OU is as good as gone. Once that happens, the Big 12 is toast. People are acting as if the Big 12 had a choice. They simply did not. The only reason to expand was to secure a network. With no network, the decision not to expand was an easy one.

How does this play with the $1B if they expand? Either that money isn't really their or they will expand. Nobody is leaving $1B on the table.

 

[whaler11]

I hear what you're saying about not pissing off your partners. But 8 years is a long time from now. Many of the key players may be retired or dead by then. If you can get $1B in the next 8 years based on a contract you've already negotiated, who wouldn't do that? They are likely to just use that as leverage for but I can still see them adding schools. My guess is TX is the only school that would pass on that.

Because the giant number one billion only works out to a few million or so each a year. So a billion sounds great: 4 million a year for a period of time isn't quite so attractive when it means you need to invite UCF or Memphis.

The years pass quickly do you really want to have 14 on the teat for the next deal in a declining market? Do you want to infuriate your media partners and fan base by not replacing Oklahoma on the schedule
with USF?

The best course of action for the Big 12 is to wait and see what happens. I imagine most of the schools have figured out that only Texas can go anywhere - and they don't want to.

 

[djct1999]

If OU leaves, why is the B12 toast? I don't see OU + OSU going to the Pac12 anymore. The most likely scenario is OU going to the SEC maybe with one ACC school, say NCState, in 2025-ish. I don't think that would precipitate any crisis, Texas will probably be happy to stay assuming LHN gets renewed, and at that point they'll add Houston to replace OU.

(The good part of this scenario is that it could open a spot in the ACC for UConn. The bad part is it's still 8-9 years away).

Because it would be non-competitive, generate 30 million less per school, and have marginal regional interest in 3 total states.

 

[CardiffGiant]

So if the B12 doesn't create its own network, is this when the State of Connecticut starts to strong arm ESPN? Even without a network, it's still difficult to argue many candidates value over UConn. And when this season's team wins 8+ games, the dumb people around the country might finally start to realize that.

I would love to believe that the State of Conn could strong arm ESPN, but with the way it is financially in this state, there is no leverage whatsoever to get ESPN to do anything. Connecticut simply cannot afford to have another big employer walk, and how can the state ask ESPN to exercise any real influence when it is common knowledge that they are losing subscribers at a scary pace? At this point, the best course is the one being pursued by Uconn right now-- worry about what you want to be as an University and do what is necessary to improve;when potential opportunities arise pursue them aggressively and quietly and keep moving forward, regardless of whether those opportunities come to fruition.

 

[djct1999]

How does this play with the $1B if they expand? Either that money isn't really their or they will expand. Nobody is leaving $1B on the table.

If that billion is really there they would have already expanded. The first we heard about this was from a hack of a journalist to lazy to understand the true landscape.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

If that billion is really there they would have already expanded. The first we heard about this was from a hack of a journalist to lazy to understand the true landscape.

I don't think the billion is an incremental amount. But an amount by adding 4 teams to the current contract at the agreed upon amount per team over 8 years.
That comes to about a billion, I laid my abicus down 9 years ago so I may be a little rusty. If the full amount is distributed to new conference members there is zero net gain for current members.
But if you take the full amount from the contract and say give the 4 new members $10mm per year and distribute the remaining amount to current schools they each get a decent annual windfall. Based on my numbers which are rough , it would be about $6mm per school for just doing nothing. Whether it's 4.5 or 6 is really dependent on a couple of variables . I'm too lazy to look up the actual media payout per team and $10mm per new team was an ballpark figure.s seemed like a round number,
I was trying to demonstrate the math to reconcile Whalers number with the Billion.

Would the four take $10mm plus their tier three
Billy. was right not yes, Hell yes ,but they wouldn't be happy after five years .

For existing schools
Whaler is correct is that amount enough to piss off your media partners ,dilute your product ,and piss off your fans
If the conference isn't going to be there in 8 years why not ,if you think there is a shot for survival probsbly not .
If I missed the point feel free to correct me, The idea of an incremental billion laying around just didn't sound plausible. So much so that I was intrigued to break my vow of no math ever again except a score card,
Hope this was helpful to the arithmetically impaired like my self.

 

[UCFBfan]

So if the B12 doesn't create its own network, is this when the State of Connecticut starts to strong arm ESPN?

Without Cespooling this place, I'm just gonna say that the State has ZERO, and I mean absolutely ZERO, reason to think strong arming a major company headquartered in this state would be a good idea in any way, shape, or form. The state needs every company it can spare. It isn't about to alienate ESPN over something as trivial as CR.

 

[djct1999]

I don't think the billion is an incremental amount. But an amount by adding 4 teams to the current contract at the agreed upon amount per team over 8 years.
That comes to about a billion, I laid my abicus down 9 years ago so I may be a little rusty. If the full amount is distributed to new conference members there is zero net gain for current members.
But if you take the full amount from the contract and say give the 4 new members $10mm per year and distribute the remaining amount to current schools they each get a decent annual windfall. Based on my numbers which are rough , it would be about $6mm per school for just doing nothing. Whether it's 4.5 or 6 is really dependent on a couple of variables . I'm too lazy to look up the actual media payout per team and $10mm per new team was an ballpark figure.s seemed like a round number,
I was trying to demonstrate the math to reconcile Whalers number with the Billion.

Would the four take $10mm plus their tier three
Billy. was right not yes, Hell yes ,but they wouldn't be happy after five years .

For existing schools
Whaler is correct is that amount enough to piss off your media partners ,dilute your product ,and piss off your fans
If the conference isn't going to be there in 8 years why not ,if you think there is a shot for survival probsbly not .
If I missed the point feel free to correct me, The idea of an incremental billion laying around just didn't sound plausible. So much so that I was intrigued to break my vow of no math ever again except a score card,
Hope this was helpful to the arithmetically impaired like my self.

I appreciate the effort. Thanks.

 

[Fishy]

Only in the near term. OU is as good as gone. Once that happens, the Big 12 is toast. People are acting as if the Big 12 had a choice. They simply did not. The only reason to expand was to secure a network. With no network, the decision not to expand was an easy one.

Where are they going? Texas seems to think that Oklahoma's rattling a pretty dull saber, don't you think?

 

[whaler11]

Where are they going? Texas seems to think that Oklahoma's rattling a pretty dull saber, don't you think?

Hold on - Fishy understands why Oklahoma is so loud?

 

[djct1999]

Where are they going? Texas seems to think that Oklahoma's rattling a pretty dull saber, don't you think?

Not at all. I don't take anything that happened this week at the Big12 meetings for face value. I think in the end, it was painfully clear there was no demand for a network and this discussion about expansion became pointless. Various schools and media outlets were able to spin it towards their benefit. I actually believe that once this contract expires, that OU will have more landing spots than Texas. I also think Texas is to self-indulgent to recognize it.

 

[Marty Jackson]

I don't think the billion is an incremental amount. But an amount by adding 4 teams to the current contract at the agreed upon amount per team over 8 years.
That comes to about a billion, I laid my abicus down 9 years ago so I may be a little rusty. If the full amount is distributed to new conference members there is zero net gain for current members.
But if you take the full amount from the contract and say give the 4 new members $10mm per year and distribute the remaining amount to current schools they each get a decent annual windfall. Based on my numbers which are rough , it would be about $6mm per school for just doing nothing. Whether it's 4.5 or 6 is really dependent on a couple of variables . I'm too lazy to look up the actual media payout per team and $10mm per new team was an ballpark figure.s seemed like a round number,
I was trying to demonstrate the math to reconcile Whalers number with the Billion.

Would the four take $10mm plus their tier three
Billy. was right not yes, Hell yes ,but they wouldn't be happy after five years .

For existing schools
Whaler is correct is that amount enough to piss off your media partners ,dilute your product ,and piss off your fans
If the conference isn't going to be there in 8 years why not ,if you think there is a shot for survival probsbly not .
If I missed the point feel free to correct me, The idea of an incremental billion laying around just didn't sound plausible. So much so that I was intrigued to break my vow of no math ever again except a score card,
Hope this was helpful to the arithmetically impaired like my self.

If ESPN and fox are on the hook, nobody cares. Big 12 isn't making this decision with anything other its own interests in mind. Pissing off fox or ESPN has no bearing.
Diluting the product is different. But 8 years is a long time. The world will be very different so who know what the deal might be next time around.and any school that joins is automatically getting the obligatory P5 bump in image (i.e. Rutgers, Syracuse, and Louisville)....
If there is money to be had, it will be taken. Not sure it's there.

 

[Marty Jackson]

The only thing to come out of this is how dysfunctional this league is.
By that alone you can gather that this conference isn't long for this world.

 

[dwalks93]

The only thing to come out of this is how dysfunctional this league is.
By that alone you can gather that this conference isn't long for this world.

No question the Big12 is the most dysfunctional league I've witnessed but I am not sure their demise is assured.

Look at what the Big12 did this week. They appeased OU by approving the Baker Mayfield rule and they agree to a CCG. 2 points for OU. The Big12 then appeased UT by stating no Big12 network is coming and not making demands that UT surrender the LHN. 2 points for UT.

The only outstanding issue now in the Big12 is expansion. Using the Big12's actions this week as a model it stands to reason there is potentially some type of compromise coming where OU gets its desired expansion but UT has a disproportionate say in the expansion teams and only 2 are added. Unfortunately because UT has always been publicly against expansion it is tough to get a read on what they'd look for in expansion programs. UConn biggest fear should be UT is more interested in vassal states it can control than maximizing potentially marketable programs and UConn is not in UT's sphere of influence.

Looks to me like the Big12 has said "we want to keep OU but we MUST keep UT." Apparently the Big12 believes as long as UT is there they can rebuild....UT will decide how much compromise they are willing to extend to OU. If OU gets the Baker Mayfield rule, the CCG, expansion, and a pay raise it may be enough to keep them around...if it is not enough and OU punches then UT chooses the next man up for the Big12.

 

[djct1999]

No question the Big12 is the most dysfunctional league I've witnessed but I am not sure their demise is assured.

Look at what the Big12 did this week. They appeased OU by approving the Baker Mayfield rule and they agree to a CCG. 2 points for OU. The Big12 then appeased UT by stating no Big12 network is coming and not making demands that UT surrender the LHN. 2 points for UT.

The only outstanding issue now in the Big12 is expansion. Using the Big12's actions this week as a model it stands to reason there is potentially some type of compromise coming where OU gets its desired expansion but UT has a disproportionate say in the expansion teams and only 2 are added. Unfortunately because UT has always been publicly against expansion it is tough to get a read on what they'd look for in expansion programs. UConn biggest fear should be UT is more interested in vassal states it can control than maximizing potentially marketable programs and UConn is not in UT's sphere of influence.

Looks to me like the Big12 has said "we want to keep OU but we MUST keep UT." Apparently the Big12 believes as long as UT is there they can rebuild....UT will decide how much compromise they are willing to extend to OU. If OU gets the Baker Mayfield rule, the CCG, expansion, and a pay raise it may be enough to keep them around...if it is not enough and OU punches then UT chooses the next man up for the Big12.

This past week was hardly a compromise. The disconnect between UT and the rest of the league will remain throughout, OU's frustration will resurface and grow, and the television network landscape will never accommodate a Big12 network. To me, what you said in your first paragraph sounds less like the two schools working in concert and more like lack of real options. Simply put, OU is resigned to squeezing out as much as possible until their contract ends. Then they bolt.

 

[CL82]

Not at all. I don't take anything that happened this week at the Big12 meetings for face value. I think in the end, it was painfully clear there was no demand for a network and this discussion about expansion became pointless.

Perhaps, but I think that it is equally fair to speculate that UT didn't make sufficient (any?) concessions to make a Big 12 network viable. No one is buying it as a stand alone, but if it offers a chance for ESPN to get out from under the LHN deal cost efficiently, I have to believe that they'd jump at the chance.

 

[Pudge]

There's NO free lunch.

We are in this Cartel structure & the lessons of the last week seem to be clear. You have major players (in this case Texas & OK). And ... then you have an extremely large level of carry-on Universities that aren't nearly as valued. While the disdain for our fair University was obvious ... with the Memphis, UCF, USF, Houston, BYU etc. I think the 5-10 year timeframe becomes clear. There's no real function, in the long run, for this conference structure.

Will the ACC support a non-achieving (dollars and cents / field performance) Boston College? Or ... the entire wing of Texas Tech, Kansas State, Baylor (with the second decade of crap)?

I don't see the GoR as binding all the bigger Values for many more years. The variance from the SEC/B1G to the next tier will lead to more dislocation as those with leverage seek to grab their perceived share of the pie. What is the rationale for UCLA or North Carolina to make significantly less than Mississippi State? Particularly as the delivery systems change. The paradigm of hoping to climb to a Power conference ends for us at UConn; but, it becomes a far more freeform ecosystem really soon.

 

[Drew]

 

[nd73]

Starting?

 

[jostar1]

Chuck Carlton ‏@ChuckCarltonDMN · Jun 6
At this stage, it might be easier to list the Group of 5 teams that haven't pitched themselves to the Big 12.

Jeffrey Fuller ‏@jjfuller72 · 15h15 hours ago
@ChuckCarltonDMN Don't think anyone took it as a shot. Wondering your thoughts on #BYU2Big12. Hearing UConn/CSU still now that no network?

Chuck Carlton Verified account 
‏@ChuckCarltonDMN
@jjfuller72 With end of network talk, criteria probably changed. Checking with sources this week to get a better handle. Stay tuned.

 

[buddy]

Chuck Carlton ‏@ChuckCarltonDMN · Jun 6
At this stage, it might be easier to list the Group of 5 teams that haven't pitched themselves to the Big 12.

Jeffrey Fuller ‏@jjfuller72 · 15h15 hours ago
@ChuckCarltonDMN Don't think anyone took it as a shot. Wondering your thoughts on #BYU2Big12. Hearing UConn/CSU still now that no network?

Chuck Carlton Verified account 
‏@ChuckCarltonDMN
@jjfuller72 With end of network talk, criteria probably changed. Checking with sources this week to get a better handle. Stay tuned.

I read that it is now BYU/Houston/Cinci. Two of three. UConn no longer in it according to TCU report.

 

[buddy]

I read that it is now BYU/Houston/Cinci. Two of three. UConn no longer in it according to TCU report.

Same thing from BYU blog "Vanquish the foe".

 

[UConn Dan]

I read that it is now BYU/Houston/Cinci. Two of three. UConn no longer in it according to TCU report.

The TCU "report" was a blog post with no sources - it was purely an opinion piece.

 

[djct1999]

The Big 12 andUConn is simply not happening. I doubt Cincy is. My guess is BYU/Boise/Houston for football only.

 

[CardiffGiant]

The trouble is that ADB article.It looked like he had solid sources and Uconn doesn't check in with the ACC and big10 if they like their chances with the Big12.

 

[pj]

The trouble is that ADB article.It looked like he had solid sources and Uconn doesn't check in with the ACC and big10 if they like their chances with the Big12.

Nonsense. You never do a deal without checking with competitors to see if they have a better offer.

 

[junglehusky]

Nonsense. You never do a deal without checking with competitors to see if they have a better offer.

That's one way to phrase it I guess...