I just did a quick look and am amazed that Geno made up 9/10 games at this point this year. Stanford is at home against Gonzaga today and then potentially Mizzou on Monday. If Tara gets by those two, Louisville is lurking, then probably Baylor. She could win anywhere from 0-4 games here, not such a great track record in the Final Four. Geno could possibly gain another 1-6 games on her this year, closing the gap to 8, 7, 6 or even 5 games, which next year becomes highly probable to pass her.
I agree but there are a lot of variables in play. If Stanford plays as difficult a nonconference schedule as they did this year, and if they lose at least 5 games in the Pac-12 as well, it could be really close.
It's my understanding that UConn plays road games next year at Notre Dame, Louisville, and Baylor. UConn will be the decided underdog in South Bend, and it would be hard to call UConn the favorite in either of the other two games at this point, considering the loss of 3 out of the 6 regular rotation players.
It's going to be a race to see who gets to 1098 first: Tara or Geno. Geno has been closing the gap just about every season of late. Obviously, Stanford plays in a much more difficult conference, where 3-5 losses per season are not out of the question, during both the regular season or in the conference tournament.