Coaching wins

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I'd say 50/50. She'd need a 9-7 conference season and then 2 post-season wins. I think she'll be very close.
I actually think it's slightly better than 50/50 in Stringer's favor. The Big Ten is not a strong conference.

Massey currently ranks Rutgers 5th in the Big Ten and very close to 4th; Sagarin has them 3rd. If we conservatively say they're the 5th-best team in the conference, and if all games go chalk, Rutgers would finish 11-5 (with losses to Maryland twice, Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan). Not all games will go chalk, of course, but I think they're more likely to end up 10-6 or 11-5, provided that their team remains healthy.
 

triaddukefan

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I am not sad for her. She has an excellent chance to realize her thousand and one nights dream on 12/28 against the Southern conference stalwart the Mercer Bears in front of dozens of fans (may be a few hundred) at Dean Smith Center. If she wanted more attention, she could lose the game against Grambling and then win her 1000 at home next week.

If they got a few hundred fans to show up at Dean Smith Center, that would be quite an accomplishment.... considering that the Tar Heel women's team play in their own separate arena... :cool:
 
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Confused which is normal for me but you are saying Summitt has 1198 wins? I was reading in other posts it is 1098. Help which is it?
sorry, I guess I got carried away. :eek: Summitt's all-time wins mark is, of course, 1098. My bad. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I corrected my earlier post.
 
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If Geno stays for 5 additional years, he should become the coach with the most wins in NCAA wbb history with somewhere around 1150 wins or more...

Tara is a year older than Geno. Tara's 38 year average is 26.36 per year; Geno's is 30.6. At the historical rates, he picks up 16 games on her in 4 years and in year 5 should surpass her even if she does not retire at 68.
With Stanford's loss to Tenn., it appears VanDerveer's program is headed for another 10+ loss season. Auriemma will very likely gain 10 or more games on her this season, making his chances of surpassing Summitt before VanDerveer a greater possibility. Auriemma's win per season average has been accelerating in recent years: his 20 year avg. is 34.9 wins per; in his last 10 years that number has risen to a torrid 37.0 wins per season. It will be close, but at that lofty rate, he will have caught up to Summitt's mark by the end of the 2020 tournament.
 

nwhoopfan

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Not exactly going out on a limb predicting double digit losses for Stanford this year. They are already at 6. 18 conference games, conference tourney, and then post season. Minimum of 20 games. Losing only 3 in that stretch looks impossible for this edition of the Card. I'd say they'll easily get more than 4 losses just during conference play.
 
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Stanford can thank their lucky stars that they only play both Oregon and Oregon State once in the regular season. They did play both twice last year. If they lose 5 games in PAC-12 play they will go into the PAC-12 tournament with 19 wins and a so-so seed. I'll bet on one win likely, maybe two in PAC-12 tourney, bringing them to 20-21 wins and a woeful seed in the NCAA's. Again, I suggest they dance to one or two wins, to a total of 21-23.

If UConn were to win out this season they would go 38-0 and Geno would pick up 15 to 17 games on Tara. That would obviously put him in a position to easily go by her next year.

I wish to say that I have the utmost respect for Tara and Stanford. I live just 42 miles from Stanford's campus and can attest that its climate, academics and location all rank right at the top. I suspect that Tara's one disadvantage is that Stanford's super high academic position may preclude her from offering scholarships to some of the top athletes. I dont know if my suspicion is true, and if it is, does it offset the great advantages mentioned above. This is a difficult topic and I will just leave it at that.
 

oldude

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As of right now, it’s somewhat optimistic to anticipate that Stanford makes it to the Big Dance. If the Cardinal ends up around 500 in conference play, which I view as a distinct possibility, the only way they get in is by winning the conference tournament, which is highly unlikely.
 
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I almost said something similar about Stanford maybe not making it into the NCAA's, but didn't quite have the nerve. Thanks for putting it out there. Now we can all watch developments with that possibility on the table.
 

vowelguy

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  1. Summitt . 1098
  2. Tara .. . 1012 + 06 =1018 (nx:.12/29 UCLA | 12/31 USC
  3. Geno .. .. 991 + 10 =1001 (nx: ... ... .. | 12/31 Memp
  4. Hatchell . 990 + 10 =1000 (nx: 12/28 Merc | 12/31 @FSU
  5. Stevens .. 983 + 11 = 994 (nx: ... ... .. | 12/30
  6. Stringer . 977 + 12 = 989 (nx: 12/28 Pur | 12/31 @MchS
  7. Conradt .. 900
  8. Foster ... 886 + 08 = 894 (nx: 12/28 Hmpt |
Earliest these could happen:
  • Stevens @ 1000 -- 01/17 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • J Foster @ 900 -- 01/21 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • Stringer @1000 -- 02/04 (My guess: Nov 2018)
  • TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season
 
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Vowel Guy - thank you for putting together your fabulous tote board and keeping it up to date with such precision punctuality! Do you think it is time to add "Geno ties PHS" to the "Earliest these could happen:" list?
 

vowelguy

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Vowel Guy - thank you for putting together your fabulous tote board and keeping it up to date with such precision punctuality! Do you think it is time to add "Geno ties PHS" to the "Earliest these could happen:" list?
Nah. Tara still could get the record before anyone else ... and that's still 2 years away. Whoever has the lead gets mentioned. And maybe more when they get with ~20 games.
But it's a looooooong way off folks.
 

vowelguy

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  1. Summitt . 1098
  2. Tara .. . 1012 + 06 =1018 (nx:.12/29 UCLA | 12/31 USC
  3. Geno .. .. 991 + 10 =1001 (nx: ... ... .. | 12/31 Memp
  4. Hatchell . 990 + 10 =1000 (nx: ... ... .. | 12/31 @FSU
  5. Stevens .. 983 + 11 = 994 (nx: ... ... .. | 12/30
  6. Stringer . 977 + 13 = 990 (nx: ... ... ..c| 12/31 @MchS
  7. Conradt .. 900
  8. Foster ... 886 + 09 = 895 (nx:
Earliest these could happen:
  • Stevens @ 1000 -- 01/17 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • J Foster @ 900 -- 01/21 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • Stringer @1000 -- 02/04 (My guess: Nov 2018)
  • TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season
 

vowelguy

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  1. Summitt . 1098
  2. Tara .. . 1012 + 07 =1019 (nx:.12/31 USC .| 1/5 @Arz | 1/7 @ASU
  3. Geno .. .. 991 + 10 =1001 (nx: 12/31 Memp | 1/3 @ECU | 1/6 @USF
  4. Hatchell . 990 + 10 =1000 (nx: 12/31 @FSU | 1/4 @BC .| 1/7 Pitt
  5. Stevens .. 983 + 11 = 994 (nx: 12/30 ... .| 1/3 .... | 1/6
  6. Stringer . 977 + 13 = 990 (nx: 12/31 @McS | 1/3 Ill .| 1/6 PSU
  7. Conradt .. 900
  8. Foster ... 886 + 09 = 895 (nx: ... ... ...| 1/4 UNCG | 1/6 WCar
Earliest these could happen:
  • Stevens @ 1000 -- 01/17 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • J Foster @ 900 -- 01/20 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • Stringer @1000 -- 02/04 (My guess: Nov 2018)
  • TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season
 

vowelguy

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Reports of Stanford's demise appear exaggerated as Card completes SoCal sweep.
Rutgers wins again -- CVS' probability of hitting 1000 this year continues to rise.
UNC loses again - can Barb Stevens pass & maintain a lead over Hatchell?

  1. Summitt . 1098
  2. Tara .. . 1012 + 08 =1020 (nx:.1/5 @Arz | 1/7 @ASU
  3. Geno .. .. 991 + 11 =1002 (nx: 1/3 @ECU | 1/6 @USF
  4. Hatchell . 990 + 10 =1000 (nx: 1/4 @BC .| 1/7 Pitt
  5. Stevens .. 983 + 12 = 995 (nx: 1/3 .... | 1/6
  6. Stringer . 977 + 14 = 991 (nx: 1/3 Ill .| 1/6 PSU
  7. Conradt .. 900
  8. Foster ... 886 + 09 = 895 (nx: 1/4 UNCG | 1/6 WCar
Earliest these could happen:
  • Stevens @ 1000 -- 01/17 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • J Foster @ 900 -- 01/20 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • Stringer @1000 -- 02/04 (My guess: Nov 2018)
  • TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season
 
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I did some math when I saw the "2018-2019 Schedule Nearly Complete" thread and surmised that we could be playing at least one more game next year than we are this year. I then noticed that UConn82 picked up on this situation as well.

This gives Geno and CD an additional opportunity to pass Tara on their way to catching Pat. It's also good for the players, especially the younger ones as it provides at least 200 more playing minutes. And, of course it's good for us as we get to watch and cheer another game. Good news!
 
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I did some math when I saw the "2018-2019 Schedule Nearly Complete" thread and surmised that we could be playing at least one more game next year than we are this year. I then noticed that UConn82 picked up on this situation as well.

This gives Geno and CD an additional opportunity to pass Tara on their way to catching Pat. It's also good for the players, especially the younger ones as it provides at least 200 more playing minutes. And, of course it's good for us as we get to watch and cheer another game. Good news!
As explained recently by @stamfordhusky in a separate thread, teams are limited to 29 regular-season games *unless* their season includes a "multi-team event" (MTE), in which case the maximum is 27 regular-season games *plus* the MTE (which can be up to 4 additional games).

In this case, UConn's MTE next year is the Paradise Jam, which I believe will consist of 3 games, giving UConn 30 regular-season games next year.
 

vowelguy

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Bentley comes back from a 9 pt half time deficit.
  1. Summitt . 1098
  2. Tara .. . 1012 + 08 =1020 (nx:.1/5 @Arz | 1/7 @ASU
  3. Geno .. .. 991 + 12 =1003 (nx: ... .... | 1/6 @USF
  4. Hatchell . 990 + 10 =1000 (nx: 1/4 @ BC | 1/7 Pitt
  5. Stevens .. 983 + 13 = 996 (nx: ... .... | 1/6
  6. Stringer . 977 + 15 = 992 (nx: .... ... | 1/6 PSU
  7. Conradt .. 900
  8. Foster ... 886 + 09 = 895 (nx: 1/4 UNCG | 1/6 WCar
Earliest these could happen:
  • Stevens @ 1000 -- 01/17 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • J Foster @ 900 -- 01/20 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • Stringer @1000 -- 02/04 (My guess: Nov 2018)
  • TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season
 

vowelguy

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  1. Summitt . 1098
  2. Tara .. . 1012 + 08 =1020 (nx:.1/5 @Arz | 1/7 @ASU
  3. Geno .. .. 991 + 12 =1003 (nx: ... .... | 1/6 @USF
  4. Hatchell . 990 + 10 =1000 (nx: 1/5 @ BC | 1/7 Pitt
  5. Stevens .. 983 + 13 = 996 (nx: ... .... | 1/6
  6. Stringer . 977 + 15 = 992 (nx: .... ... | 1/6 PSU
  7. Conradt .. 900
  8. Foster ... 886 + 10 = 896 (nx: .... ... | 1/6 WCar
Earliest these could happen:
  • Stevens @ 1000 -- 01/17 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • J Foster @ 900 -- 01/20 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • Stringer @1000 -- 02/04 (My guess: Nov 2018)
  • TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season
 

vowelguy

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.... And UNC loses to BOSTON COLLEGE.

1,000 wins is certainly an accomplishment but when it's a D1 school winning against D3-level competition and losing to everyone else, the record is tarnished
 

vowelguy

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  1. Summitt . 1098
  2. Tara .. . 1012 + 09 =1021 (nx: 1/7 @ASU | ... ... | 1/12 Wash | 1/14 WaSt
  3. Geno .. .. 991 + 12 =1003 (nx: 1/6 @USF | 1/9 UCF | 1/13 @Hou | 1/15 @Tex
  4. Hatchell . 990 + 10 =1000 (nx: 1/7 Pitt | ... ... | 1/11 Clem | 1/14 Wake
  5. Stevens .. 983 + 13 = 996 (nx: 1/6 .... | 1/9 ... | 1/12 ... .| 1/17
  6. Stringer . 977 + 15 = 992 (nx: 1/6 PnSt | 1/10 Pur| 1/13 Minn | 1/18 @PnSt
  7. Conradt .. 900
  8. Foster ... 886 + 10 = 896 (nx: 1/6 WCar | ... ... | 1/12 .... | 1/18
Earliest these could happen:
  • Stevens @ 1000 -- 01/17 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • J Foster @ 900 -- 01/20 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • Stringer @1000 -- 02/04 (My guess: Mar 2018) <-- updated !
  • TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season
 

vowelguy

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  1. Summitt . 1098
  2. Tara .. . 1012 + 09 =1021 (nx: 1/7 @ASU | ... ... | 1/12 Wash | 1/14 WaSt
  3. Geno .. .. 991 + 13 =1004 (nx: ... .... | 1/9 UCF | 1/13 @Hou | 1/15 @Tex
  4. Hatchell . 990 + 10 =1000 (nx: 1/7 Pitt | ... ... | 1/11 Clem | 1/14 Wake
  5. Stevens .. 983 + 14 = 997 (nx: ... .... | 1/9 ... | 1/12 ... .| 1/17
  6. Stringer . 977 + 16 = 993 (nx: ... ... .| 1/10 Pur| 1/13 Minn | 1/18 @PnSt
  7. Conradt .. 900
  8. Foster ... 886 + 11 = 897 (nx: .... ....| ... ... | 1/12 .... | 1/18
Earliest these could happen:
  • Stevens @ 1000 -- 01/17 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • J Foster @ 900 -- 01/20 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • Stringer @1000 -- 02/04 (My guess: Mar 2018) <-- updated !
  • TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season
 

vowelguy

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Stan loses while UNC comes in Q4 to beat Pitt by 1
  1. Summitt . 1098
  2. Tara .. . 1012 + 09 =1021 (nx: ... ... | 1/12 Wash | 1/14 WaSt
  3. Geno .. .. 991 + 13 =1004 (nx: 1/9 UCF | 1/13 @Hou | 1/15 @Tex
  4. Hatchell . 990 + 11 =1001 (nx: ... ... | 1/11 Clem | 1/14 Wake
  5. Stevens .. 983 + 14 = 997 (nx: 1/9 ... | 1/12 ... .| 1/17
  6. Stringer . 977 + 16 = 993 (nx: 1/10 Pur| 1/13 Minn | 1/18 @PnSt
  7. Conradt .. 900
  8. Foster ... 886 + 11 = 897 (nx: ... ... | 1/12 .... | 1/18
Earliest these could happen:
  • Stevens @ 1000 -- 01/17 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • J Foster @ 900 -- 01/20 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • Stringer @1000 -- 02/04 (My guess: Mar 2018) <-- updated !
  • TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season
 

vowelguy

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  1. Summitt . 1098
  2. Tara .. . 1012 + 09 =1021 (nx: ... ... | 1/12 Wash | 1/14 WaSt
  3. Geno .. .. 991 + 14 =1005 (nx: ... ... | 1/13 @Hou | 1/15 @Tex
  4. Hatchell . 990 + 11 =1001 (nx: ... ... | 1/11 Clem | 1/14 Wake
  5. Stevens .. 983 + 14 = 997 (nx: 1/10... | 1/12 ... .| 1/17
  6. Stringer . 977 + 16 = 993 (nx: 1/10 Pur| 1/13 Minn | 1/18 @PnSt
  7. Conradt .. 900
  8. Foster ... 886 + 11 = 897 (nx: ... ... | 1/12 .... | 1/18
Earliest these could happen:
  • Stevens @ 1000 -- 01/17 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • J Foster @ 900 -- 01/20 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • Stringer @1000 -- 02/04 (My guess: Mar 2018) <-- updated !
  • TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season
 

vowelguy

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  1. Summitt . 1098
  2. Tara .. . 1012 + 09 =1021 (nx: 1/12 Wash | 1/14 WaSt
  3. Geno .. .. 991 + 14 =1005 (nx: 1/13 @Hou | 1/15 @Tex
  4. Hatchell . 990 + 11 =1001 (nx: 1/11 Clem | 1/14 Wake
  5. Stevens .. 983 + 15 = 998 (nx: 1/12 ... .| 1/17
  6. Stringer . 977 + 16 = 993 (nx: 1/13 Minn | 1/18 @PnSt
  7. Conradt .. 900
  8. Foster ... 886 + 11 = 897 (nx: 1/12 .... | 1/18
Earliest these could happen:
  • Stevens @ 1000 -- 01/17 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • J Foster @ 900 -- 01/20 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • Stringer @1000 -- 02/08 (My guess: Mar 2018) <-- updated !
  • TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season
 

triaddukefan

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  1. Summitt . 1098
  2. Tara .. . 1012 + 09 =1021 (nx: 1/12 Wash | 1/14 WaSt
  3. Geno .. .. 991 + 14 =1005 (nx: 1/13 @Hou | 1/15 @Tex
  4. Hatchell . 990 + 11 =1001 (nx: 1/11 Clem | 1/14 Wake
  5. Stevens .. 983 + 15 = 998 (nx: 1/12 ... .| 1/17
  6. Stringer . 977 + 16 = 993 (nx: 1/13 Minn | 1/18 @PnSt
  7. Conradt .. 900
  8. Foster ... 886 + 11 = 897 (nx: 1/12 .... | 1/18
Earliest these could happen:
  • Stevens @ 1000 -- 01/17 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • J Foster @ 900 -- 01/20 (My guess: Jan 2018)
  • Stringer @1000 -- 02/08 (My guess: Mar 2018) <-- updated !
  • TaraV ties PHS -- 2019-20 season

After tonight's performance... thought you might move your guess back to Nov or Dec :p:D
 

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