Cinci will show us how good we are | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Cinci will show us how good we are

Matt1010 said:
I want you as my bookie...no chance we see a line that high.
Expand ...

As in you think it will be less than 15-18? We were -11 to both SMU and Cuse with 8 guys. We may only have 6 vs. Cinci.

We're 110 in Kenpom, Cinci is 16. The game is @Cinci, I think it'll be right around 15

As an example, #14 St. Mary's played #99 San Francisco and were 13.5 favorites at home.
 
Last edited:
Matrim55 said:
Cincy wrecks teams on the offensive boards. We're meat.
Expand ...

Thats my biggest fear. We will work so hard defensively for 30 seconds to get a stop and then get killed on the glass. That is demoralizing with 6 players. With some depth you can combat that by sending more players in and out to be more aggressive and eat some fouls to compete. We cant do that.
 
DaveHuskiesFan said:
As in you think it will be less than 15-18? We were -11 to both SMU and Cuse with 8 guys. We may only have 6 vs. Cinci.

We're 110 in Kenpom, Cinci is 16. The game is @Cinci, I think it'll be right around 15

As an example, #14 St. Mary's played #99 San Francisco and were 13.5 favorites at home.
Expand ...
Yes, I'll be shocked if this line is more than +13. I'll go with +12 as my prediction. Guys like Enoch and Durham are not moving lines at all...Enoch specifically has been a net negative player for us this year.
 
.-.
uconnbill said:
The bottom line we don't know anything until the game is played. UConn could shoot the lights out and Cincy could stink the place up. Talent wise they have the advantage but again that is why they play the games
Expand ...
Of course no one knows which team is going to win before the game is played. But we do have knowledge of both teams body of work so far, and we have a wealth of statistics that imply who will win and lose. AND we're on the BY because we like to give our opinions. My opinion is we lose the game but I would take 15 pts. or above. I think KO will try to take some air out of the ball on offense to limit possessions.
 
My recollection is we were nine point dogs against SMU? They're basically the same team as Cincinnati. I'd expect it to be +12 or so.
 
I'm not overly optimistic, but I'll hold out hope until the end of the game. At times last season, Cincinnati seemed like they didn't have an answer for Adams. I'm sure their entire defensive game plan will be keyed on stopping him this time around though.
 
Any team can lose on any given night. We have the horses to pull off the upset. Cincy isn't a "dominant" team. Good? Yes. Unbeatable? Absolutely not. Go Huskies!
 
.-.
mauconnfan said:
Will be a tough game for AB to stay out of foul trouble more experienced interior guys like Clark and a couple others, and the depth of physical players will be tough on 6 guys, hell even 8 because the other haven't played in 2 weeks at that point even if dressed. It will show us something but I won't read too much into it at this point. It will need to be the perfect storm, a couple guys like JA going off a little while Cincy not shooting it too well and taking us a little lightly.
Expand ...
I was going to post similar Mau until I read yours. Amida has sat the bench in the first 5 minutes from teams that are mediocre. Hopefully that doesn't happen. Cincy gets a rebound 3 o4 four players are already racing over half court. they remind me of UConn greyhounds of old. Always on the run. I am afraid our pups are going to be exhausted early. Again hopefully I am wrong. I would not mind eating my words twice baked.
 
Matt1010 said:
Yes, I'll be shocked if this line is more than +13. I'll go with +12 as my prediction. Guys like Enoch and Durham are not moving lines at all...Enoch specifically has been a net negative player for us this year.
Expand ...

Kenpom has 14. Line will be right about that.
 
I am looking for Vance and Vital to get experience in another hostile environment. I am also looking for us to not give in, to run good offense no matter the score and not get caught up in jacking 3's and getting dunked on when they don't go in. This is a game to develop some mental toughness for future battles this year.
 
DaveHuskiesFan said:
As in you think it will be less than 15-18? We were -11 to both SMU and Cuse with 8 guys. We may only have 6 vs. Cinci.

We're 110 in Kenpom, Cinci is 16. The game is @Cinci, I think it'll be right around 15

As an example, #14 St. Mary's played #99 San Francisco and were 13.5 favorites at home.
Expand ...
We were +8 against Cuse.
 
UConn and Cincinnati since the 2010-2011 season:
  • 11 of the 12 match-ups have been decided by 7 points or less.
  • The combined score of those games: 761-770 (in favor of Cinci)
  • The average score of those games: 63.4 - 64.1 (in favor of Cinci)
  • Those 12 games combined for 5 overtime periods
  • Of the 12 match-ups, 4 were decided by a 1 possession score

I don't see a blowout.

If Facey and Brimah stay out of foul trouble and Adams has a great game, we have a chance. How likely that is... uhhhhh, we'll see.
 
Last edited:
.-.
You do not need to guess or think about lines. Literally you can log into kenpom and the line is a point on either side of their projection 90+% of the time.

If you want to bet the farm on UConn +14 or so because games played in 2012 were close knock yourself out.
 
My hope is that Brimah does not find a way to take himself out of this game and leave Facey to fight the entire Cincy front court.

My expectation is that he will.

I think we will get murdered and Foxen and Noyes will have to play because everyone else has fouled out.
 
Fishy said:
My hope is that Brimah does not find a way to take himself out of this game and leave Facey to fight the entire Cincy front court.

My expectation is that he will.

I think we will get murdered and Foxen and Noyes will have to play because everyone else has fouled out.
Expand ...

Actually afraid of both of them in foul trouble leaving us a hot mess and blow out city. But particularly Mr Brimah against this team. If he could stay away from the stupid movie picks and the pushes from behind on the offensive rebounds he'd be fine. Always 2 or 3 of those kill him.
 
mauconnfan said:
Actually afraid of both of them in foul trouble leaving us a hot mess and blow out city. But particularly Mr Brimah against this team. If he could stay away from the stupid movie picks and the pushes from behind on the offensive rebounds he'd be fine. Always 2 or 3 of those kill him.
Expand ...
If I could say anything to AB it would be this - you cannot, under any circumstances, get called for an offensive foul. I would rather he not bother to cross midcourt then get called for a moving screen, hand fighting for position, or going over the back for an offensive rebound. He is too crucial for our defense, where he is going to pickup at least 3 or 4 fouls when playing this many minutes against a physical team, to pick up any on the offensive end. Just be available for the occasional lob dunk and otherwise get out of the way Mr. Brimah, please.
 
.-.
My take is that Adams will be shadowed the entire game by another defender keeping him out of the lane and minimizing his effectiveness.
 
UChusky916 said:
UConn and Cincinnati since the 2010-2011 season:
  • 11 of the 12 match-ups have been decided by 7 points or less.
  • The combined score of those games: 761-770 (in favor of Cinci)
  • The average score of those games: 63.4 - 64.1 (in favor of Cinci)
  • Those 12 games combined for 5 overtime periods
  • Of the 12 match-ups, 4 were decided by a 1 possession score
I don't see a blowout.

If Facey and Brimah stay out of foul trouble and Adams has a great game, we have a chance. How likely that is... uhhhhh, we'll see.
Expand ...
Since 2010-2011 how many times has UConn only had 6 players, been 9-11 against D1 teams, and been ranked 110 in the country? Because those games would be relevant.
 
pnow15 said:
My take is that Adams will be shadowed the entire game by another defender keeping him out of the lane and minimizing his effectiveness.
Expand ...

Yes he will and doubled at all costs by Cincy much like Tulane who did a very good job. And as the "sweeper" announcer did printout correctly he was a dribble or 2 too far quite a few times. The hope is learning from the situation as well as the video I am sure he is reviewing with KO and the staff on that game which held I'm ineffective for the most part. He will need to be a ton better in his decision making in this game for sure.
 
Onions said:
If I could say anything to AB it would be this - you cannot, under any circumstances, get called for an offensive foul. I would rather he not bother to cross midcourt then get called for a moving screen, hand fighting for position, or going over the back for an offensive rebound. He is too crucial for our defense, where he is going to pickup at least 3 or 4 fouls when playing this many minutes against a physical team, to pick up any on the offensive end. Just be available for the occasional lob dunk and otherwise get out of the way Mr. Brimah, please.
Expand ...

Ya know what bothers me is he moves all the time on the picks and somehow still does it, looking stunned every time. And the offensive rebounding, why even compete for one if you're boxed you aren't strong enough to move them and your hands are never ready anyway so as you say, leave the play immediately if you don't have position and get back on D please.
 
Foul trouble will be our worse enemy. I can see 2-3 players fouling out in this one. To keep players on the floor we have to control tempo and slow the game down, Unfotunately, we don't have great half court sets. This is a tough one for us. Crazier things have happened but it's rare.
 
There were a couple of times last game where Amida did a good job of moving away from the driving opponent who was trying to draw a foul on him. He sort of fell away as the opponent came into him. Agree with mau about the dumb fouls he gets moving on picks and going over the back. I would love to see him just take the contact when setting a pick and not look to slip it every time. He seems to make more mistakes when he is either excited or tired, but I do think he has been making some progress. I'm not sure that either he or Facey will be as effective if the other team plays physical D against them.
 
.-.
You must log in or register to reply here.

Forum statistics

Threads
168,197
Messages
4,556,465
Members
10,442
Latest member
Virginiafan


Top Bottom