OT: Celtics / Cavs megadeal

[nomar]

Disagree.

They're professionals and IT has way too much on the line to sulk.

Crowder goes form starting to a bench player in CLe. I doubt he'd be nearly as angry as others think.

The clippers pick max should've been the pick in this deal, especially when paired with zizic .

1. He would've played hard and scored a lot of points if the deal was canceled. But would he have played for the name on the front of his jersey or the back?

2. Maybe. But Crowder wasn't happy all last year knowing that the Celts wanted to upgrade at SF with Hayward and he can't have been too happy to see it happen. And his PT would've been cut in Boston.

Maybe your first two points are right. I don't think so. More likely Ainge would've had to deal them for very low value.

3. This is conflating the value of the deal when it was made and the value of the deal once we all found out that (as both sides knew) IT's injury was more serious than a lot of people knew, and the value of the deal once it was made and Cleveland was threatening to renege. When the deal was made I thought it was an overpay. But what I said (among other things) was, IT's injury must be more serious than I thought it was. Turned out it was.

 

[NielsisGood]

And will be in his decline phase already. He'll still be good, but not this year or last year good

Name me a single all star level player in the last 10 or so years who didn't have any injury history that started noticeably declining by the age of 29.

 

[the Q]

1. He would've played hard and scored a lot of points if the deal was canceled. But would he have played for the name on the front of his jersey or the back?

2. Maybe. But Crowder wasn't happy all last year knowing that the Celts wanted to upgrade at SF with Hayward and he can't have been too happy to see it happen. And his PT would've been cut in Boston.

Maybe your first two points are right. I don't think so. More likely Ainge would've had to deal them for very low value.

3. This is conflating the value of the deal when it was made and the value of the deal once we all found out that (as both sides knew) IT's injury was more serious than a lot of people knew, and the value of the deal once it was made and Cleveland was threatening to renege. When the deal was made I thought it was an overpay. But what I said (among other things) was, IT's injury must be more serious than I thought it was. Turned out it was.

Then let them reneg. There isn't a form of a kyrie deal on earth that gets me to give up Brooklyn for him

 

[the Q]

1. He would've played hard and scored a lot of points if the deal was canceled. But would he have played for the name on the front of his jersey or the back?

2. Maybe. But Crowder wasn't happy all last year knowing that the Celts wanted to upgrade at SF with Hayward and he can't have been too happy to see it happen. And his PT would've been cut in Boston.

Maybe your first two points are right. I don't think so. More likely Ainge would've had to deal them for very low value.

3. This is conflating the value of the deal when it was made and the value of the deal once we all found out that (as both sides knew) IT's injury was more serious than a lot of people knew, and the value of the deal once it was made and Cleveland was threatening to renege. When the deal was made I thought it was an overpay. But what I said (among other things) was, IT's injury must be more serious than I thought it was. Turned out it was.

To number 1, I've always had hat question.

There's a reason he was a malcontent everywhere he went until Brad just gave him reign to be a gunner.

 

[the Q]

1. He would've played hard and scored a lot of points if the deal was canceled. But would he have played for the name on the front of his jersey or the back?

2. Maybe. But Crowder wasn't happy all last year knowing that the Celts wanted to upgrade at SF with Hayward and he can't have been too happy to see it happen. And his PT would've been cut in Boston.

Maybe your first two points are right. I don't think so. More likely Ainge would've had to deal them for very low value.

3. This is conflating the value of the deal when it was made and the value of the deal once we all found out that (as both sides knew) IT's injury was more serious than a lot of people knew, and the value of the deal once it was made and Cleveland was threatening to renege. When the deal was made I thought it was an overpay. But what I said (among other things) was, IT's injury must be more serious than I thought it was. Turned out it was.

One thing that is for certain, Danny cares a lot more about feelings this summer than most.

First not going hard for butler cause they didn't think he and Hayward would mesh, and now this.

 

[champs99and04]

Tom Haberstroh is on ESPN right now saying their RPM models project the Celtics to win 45 games and that he agrees with them.

I don't agree with everything he's saying in his explanation, but he makes a good point in saying that this is essentially going to be a brand new Celtics team. That's something I don't think enough people are talking about - they had a really good team in place that they essentially blew up, and while I think they'll be better in the long-run, the results might not be there immediately. I think people are factoring in Stevens being a wizard to their optimism, but is he better than a guy like Spoelstra? Maybe not. 56.5 wins or whatever it is seems too high.

 

[champs99and04]

Name me a single all star level player in the last 10 or so years who didn't have any injury history that started noticeably declining by the age of 29.

Deron Williams is the only guy that comes to mind. (Ben Gordon wasn't an all-star, I don't think, but he'd fit too.)

 

[NielsisGood]

Deron Williams is the only guy that comes to mind. (Ben Gordon wasn't an all-star, I don't think, but he'd fit too.)

Yeah I guess he had his fall off around his age 30 season. Just kinda seemed like he got fat/out of shape.

 

[the Q]

Name me a single all star level player in the last 10 or so years who didn't have any injury history that started noticeably declining by the age of 29.

KG's decline started at 29 based on both BPM and VORP. And never hit his age 28 levels again, or frankly ever came remotely close.

had a bounce back year in 07-08 (but not up to his previous Minny levels) and then never came close again. Yes he got hurt in 08-09, but he wasn't on track to reach the previous year's level anyway based on VORP.

I admit he's a little odd because he came right out of HS so he probably has more miles on his body than most average 29 year olds, but he would fit. Deron Williams seems to fit as well.

 

[the Q]

Yeah I guess he had his fall off around his age 30 season. Just kinda seemed like he got fat/out of shape.

Didn't wiliams seemingly have ankle problems forever? or is that just me?

 

[NielsisGood]

KG's decline started at 29 based on both BPM and VORP. And never hit his age 28 levels again, or frankly ever came remotely close.

had a bounce back year in 07-08 (but not up to his previous Minny levels) and then never came close again. Yes he got hurt in 08-09, but he wasn't on track to reach the previous year's level anyway based on VORP.

I admit he's a little odd because he came right out of HS so he probably has more miles on his body than most average 29 year olds, but he would fit. Deron Williams seems to fit as well.

I think you may have misunderstood the question, name me a player within the last 10 years that had a noticeable decline (that wasn't primarily injury related). I didn't ask if a player had their best season at 29. KG still put up 22-13-4 on 53% for a horrible TWolves team as a 29 year old. Even if that might not have been his absolute best season, you wouldn't call that a noticeable decline from his prime phase either.

 

[NielsisGood]

Didn't wiliams seemingly have ankle problems forever? or is that just me?

That would invalidate him from inclusion then as his decline would at that point be injury related as opposed to just a normal age related decline in production.

 

[HooperScooper]

And will be in his decline phase already. He'll still be good, but not this year or last year good

And you know this how????

 

[champs99and04]

Yeah I guess he had his fall off around his age 30 season. Just kinda seemed like he got fat/out of shape.

Just one of those guys. Josh Smith might deserve a mention too, now that I think of it. Dwight has obviously had the back problems.

 

[NielsisGood]

Just one of those guys. Josh Smith might deserve a mention too, now that I think of it. Dwight has obviously had the back problems.

J Smoove never made an all star team to my knowledge.

 

[the Q]

I think you may have misunderstood the question, name me a player within the last 10 years that had a noticeable decline (that wasn't primarily injury related). I didn't ask if a player had their best season at 29. KG still put up 22-13-4 on 53% for a horrible TWolves team as a 29 year old. Even if that might not have been his absolute best season, you wouldn't call that a noticeable decline from his prime phase either.

I guess we'd have to define noticeable, but KG clearly fell off from MVP level to simply very good.

I think part of the problem is you are equating decline with falling off a cliff rather than just no longer at peak value.

 

[NielsisGood]

I guess we'd have to define noticeable, but KG clearly fell off from MVP level to simply very good.

I think part of the problem is you are equating decline with falling off a cliff rather than just no longer at peak value.

I guess being 5th in win shares, 2nd in WS/48, and 2nd in VORP during his age 29 season is "simply very good"....


Did you just have a malfunction?

 

[the Q]

I guess being 5th in win shares, 2nd in WS/48, and 2nd in VORP during his age 29 season is "simply very good"....


Did you just have a malfunction?

Compare 02-03, 03-04, and 04-05 to 05-06 and 06-07.

There's a clear drop off in Win Shares, BPM and VORP.

 

[champs99and04]

J Smoove never made an all star team to my knowledge.

You're right on Smith.

You could argue Rondo, even though I don't think he declined so much as things changed and the league became more scoring-oriented from the point guard position.

I don't see any reason to expect Hayward to decline at 29, unless we're parsing decimal points. He'll be at his apex for the duration of that contract.

 

[NielsisGood]

Compare 02-03, 03-04, and 04-05 to 05-06 and 06-07.

There's a clear drop off in Win Shares, BPM and VORP.

Maybe if this were chess and you were talking about his individual elo rating trying to look at his stats in a vacuum would make sense. Even by the metrics you love so much, KG was like the 2nd or 3rd best player in the league during his age 29 season. The stats tell me that KG was still clearly in his prime at 29 and playing at an MVP level.

 

[NielsisGood]

You're right on Smith.

You could argue Rondo, even though I don't think he declined so much as things changed and the league became more scoring-oriented from the point guard position.

I don't see any reason to expect Hayward to decline at 29, unless we're parsing decimal points. He'll be at his apex for the duration of that contract.

Would agree that Rondo is more of a case that the league evolved away from his strengths.


Would think just about everyone would agree on Hayward. Unless you're Q, he apparently defines a player's prime by their singular best season as measured only by Sloan Conference approved analytics.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Gotta add in #3: Kyrie actually plays like the top 10 player level that Danny paid for.

Cause he's not even close to that yet.

I think you are obviously right in that Kyrie has to play like a top 10 player, obviously he's the only asset the Celtics acquired so from their side of the ledger his future performance is it.

Disagree that Kyrie isn't close to top-10, there is ample playoff evidence that Kyrie is a top-10 postseason performer, but his regular season play, stats and results are shakier. I'm also prone to waive the Brad Stevens magic wand at that, while also agreeing that the Celtics are likely to take a big step backwards during the regular season this year.

We'll find out about Kyrie for sure. Is he just a get buckets guy in key situations or can he sustain excellence over a season? Boston is a crucible kind of town and if Kyrie doesn't step up his game it can go bad quickly like it has for many overpaid Red Sox.

 

[the Q]

I think you are obviously right in that Kyrie has to play like a top 10 player, obviously he's the only asset the Celtics acquired so from their side of the ledger his future performance is it.

Disagree that Kyrie isn't close to top-10, there is ample playoff evidence that Kyrie is a top-10 postseason performer, but his regular season play, stats and results are shakier. I'm also prone to waive the Brad Stevens magic wand at that, while also agreeing that the Celtics are likely to take a big step backwards during the regular season this year.

We'll find out about Kyrie for sure. Is he just a get buckets guy in key situations or can he sustain excellence over a season? Boston is a crucible kind of town and if Kyrie doesn't step up his game it can go bad quickly like it has for many overpaid Red Sox.

He's closer to 30 right now and executives don't think he's a star. Please hold while I find this article I just read.

 

[the Q]

I think you are obviously right in that Kyrie has to play like a top 10 player, obviously he's the only asset the Celtics acquired so from their side of the ledger his future performance is it.

Disagree that Kyrie isn't close to top-10, there is ample playoff evidence that Kyrie is a top-10 postseason performer, but his regular season play, stats and results are shakier. I'm also prone to waive the Brad Stevens magic wand at that, while also agreeing that the Celtics are likely to take a big step backwards during the regular season this year.

We'll find out about Kyrie for sure. Is he just a get buckets guy in key situations or can he sustain excellence over a season? Boston is a crucible kind of town and if Kyrie doesn't step up his game it can go bad quickly like it has for many overpaid Red Sox.

Here it is: Is Kyrie a Franchise Star? NBA Insiders Doubt Irving Worth What Celtics Paid

 

[Dogdeacon]

Here it is: Is Kyrie a Franchise Star? NBA Insiders Doubt Irving Worth What Celtics Paid

Yeah I read that and the Lowe piece that argues the upside possibilities. The possibilities suggested by Lowe get to the key Kyrie question; is he James Harden in Houston = will thrive once in the right situation as a primary piece.

Closer to 30 means not top-20 and I'd like to see your list of 20 better players. Irving is definitely outside the elites of Harden, LeBron, Kawhi, Curry, Westbrook & Durant but after that I don't think there are many guys who you can assert are absolutely better than Kyrie. And can you name 10 better offensive players?

 

[the Q]

Yeah I read that and the Lowe piece that argues the upside possibilities. The possibilities suggested by Lowe get to the key Kyrie question; is he James Harden in Houston = will thrive once in the right situation as a primary piece.

Closer to 30 means not top-20 and I'd like to see your list of 20 better players. Irving is definitely outside the elites of Harden, LeBron, Kawhi, Curry, Westbrook & Durant but after that I don't think there are many guys who you can assert are absolutely better than Kyrie. And can you name 10 better offensive players?

Top 10 offensive player, but also one of the 10 worst defenders in the league

 

[polycom]

This Kyrie press conference is something else. Shade being thrown all over the place

 

[Com'rGordon]

Kyrie is the second best scorer in the NBA besides kevin durant. Celtics gave alot but are getting alot. Not a bad trade at all.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Top 10 offensive player, but also one of the 10 worst defenders in the league

I understand that's hyperbole and among starters, stars. But even then on that list is Kyrie, Harden, Isaiah, Carmelo etc... and were aren't talking about NBA players like Korver, MMiller or younger Bodgonavich, DeAngelo Russell, Reggie Jackson who are mediocre offensively and very bad defenders.

 

[the Q]

I understand that's hyperbole and among starters, stars. But even then on that list is Kyrie, Harden, Isaiah, Carmelo etc... and were aren't talking about NBA players like Korver, MMiller or younger Bodgonavich, DeAngelo Russell, Reggie Jackson who are mediocre offensively and very bad defenders.

No, him and Isaiah are both on that list.