Bracketology

[oldude]

No, it's not.

You're talking about the games UConn *lost*. That's not the problem. The problem is the games that UConn *hasn't won*, which have left it with a deficiency of quality wins. All of the other 5 contenders for #1 seeds, except for Mississippi State, have significantly more.

If ND wins the ACC and SC wins the SEC, both of which are strong possibilities, then UConn will have 2 very strong wins on their resume. The win vs #1 ND, on the road, earns UConn bonus points. Baylor and UConn should both win out. Here’s why I believe UConn has a very good chance to be the #2 overall seed.

Oregon’s best road win was vs a depleted #7 Stanford. They also have a bad loss vs MI St. If the Ducks win out, including the Pac12 tournament, it’s a very close call as to whether they’re seeded ahead of UConn. If they lose another game, there is no chance.

Louisville’s best road win was vs #17 ASU by 2. Their recent loss at home to a decent Miami team is certainly a setback to their seeding. Louisville has to win out, including the ACC tournament to be seeded ahead of UConn imo.

Finally, ND’s best road win is over #11 Marquette. Their loss at home to UConn along with two road losses, including a particularly bad one to UNC make it virtually impossible for the Irish to leapfrog UConn imo, although they still could be the favorite to win the ACC tournament.

Time will tell. But UConn is in a nice position and the Huskies are playing their best basketball of the season over the past 4 games as they round into form for the Big Dance.

 

[bbballfan23]

If ND wins the ACC and SC wins the SEC, both of which are strong possibilities, then UConn will have 2 very strong wins on their resume. The win vs #1 ND, on the road, earns UConn bonus points. Baylor and UConn should both win out. Here’s why I believe UConn has a very good chance to be the #2 overall seed.

Oregon’s best road win was vs a depleted #7 Stanford. They also have a bad loss vs MI St. If the Ducks win out, including the Pac12 tournament, it’s a very close call as to whether they’re seeded ahead of UConn. If they lose another game, there is no chance.

Louisville’s best road win was vs #17 ASU by 2. Their recent loss at home to a decent Miami team is certainly a setback to their seeding. Louisville has to win out, including the ACC tournament to be seeded ahead of UConn imo.

Finally, ND’s best road win is over #11 Marquette. Their loss at home to UConn along with two road losses, including a particularly bad one to UNC make it virtually impossible for the Irish to leapfrog UConn imo, although they still could be the favorite to win the ACC tournament.

Time will tell. But UConn is in a nice position and the Huskies are playing their best basketball of the season over the past 4 games as they round into form for the Big Dance.

Agree. People want to discredit UConn so much it’s a bit annoying. Let’s face it. Beating teams ranked 20th or above don’t mean much to me because there’s a HUGE gap. But losing to those teams is really eye-opening that there are major flaws on a team. Never heard of a team punished more for two top 5 road losses in my life.

Cue the “but that’s not what the committee looks at” responses. At some point eye-test and common sense are used during seedings. Just not much here on the BY.

 

[oldude]

Agree. People want to discredit UConn so much it’s a bit annoying. Let’s face it. Beating teams ranked 20th or above don’t mean much to me because there’s a HUGE gap. But losing to those teams is really eye-opening that there are major flaws on a team. Never heard of a team punished more for two top 5 road losses in my life.

Cue the “but that’s not what the committee looks at” responses. At some point eye-test and common sense are used during seedings. Just not much here on the BY.

Well stated. Be careful though. You don’t want to be accused of consistently making rational and thoughtful arguments here on the BY. Mix it up now and then by throwing in an occasional “The sky is falling” post.

 

[Orangutan]

Agree. People want to discredit UConn so much it’s a bit annoying. Let’s face it. Beating teams ranked 20th or above don’t mean much to me because there’s a HUGE gap. But losing to those teams is really eye-opening that there are major flaws on a team. Never heard of a team punished more for two top 5 road losses in my life.

Cue the “but that’s not what the committee looks at” responses. At some point eye-test and common sense are used during seedings. Just not much here on the BY.

Playing in a tough conference like the PAC12 or ACC puts you in more of these tricky no-win situations where you are playing a team somewhere between 15 and 50 in RPI and you will get no credit for winning by 30 but slammed if you lose.

That's why I think the sheer amount of top-50 wins you rack up does matter somewhat. UConn has certainly had some underwhelming performances against lesser opponents (Oklahoma, for example). If they had had one of those games against a stronger team, they might not have been to pull through with a win. They just haven't played as many of those games.

I think Oregon is still #2 if Hebard will be available for the tourney. If she's out, that could be tiebreaker that puts UConn ahead.

It's very close, though, and I would have no problem with UConn at #2.

 

[huskeynut]

No, it's not.

You're talking about the games UConn *lost*. That's not the problem. The problem is the games that UConn *hasn't won*, which have left it with a deficiency of quality wins. All of the other 5 contenders for #1 seeds, except for Mississippi State, have significantly more.

Plebe - do you really want to open up a can of worms. We all know the competition in the AAC is weak. There is nothing UConn can do about it.

 

[ConnecticutBB]

Can someone clear this up for me. During the half of the second game last night, I believe a graph was put on the TV screen showing in the Albany region. UCONN/ND/ unable to remember the other 2 schools...Miss State was moved to Greensboro ...I could be completely wrong..does anyone remember what Charlie's new projections are?

 

[DefenseBB]

Unfortunately the committee continues to use the RPI as their criteria for seeding and selections which has inherent flaws, most of which does not take into account the BY perspective! How dare they!

A fair question might be though, is the RPI more skewed in favor of the P5 schools than either Massey or WarrenNolan? Or is the flaw universally applied?

 

[CajunHusky]

I think there will be some moving in the brackets after a straightforward bracket is made.

For example, I think Stanford is going to the Oregon regional. I think the NCAA owes it to them and their fans after the cross country travel the last couple of years.

 

[Plebe]

Plebe - do you really want to open up a can of worms. We all know the competition in the AAC is weak. There is nothing UConn can do about it.

This isn't really about conferences. In the previous few years UConn picked up plenty of top 25 and top 50 wins in its nonconference schedule. This year, not as much. And that's not just because of the 2 losses to Louisville and Baylor. It's also because UConn's nonconference schedule was weaker this year than in previous seasons.

 

[oldude]

I think Oregon is still #2 if Hebard will be available for the tourney. If she's out, that could be tiebreaker that puts UConn ahead.

While it’s not definitive yet, Kelly Graves somewhat ominously indicated after the game that Hebard’s injury, “Doesn’t look good.”

 

[Plebe]

I think there will be some moving in the brackets after a straightforward bracket is made.

For example, I think Stanford is going to the Oregon regional. I think the NCAA owes it to them and their fans after the cross country travel the last couple of years.

If Oregon is in the Portland regional, Stanford must be sent elsewhere.

 

[ConnecticutBB]

Albany UCONN/ND/MARYLAND/Iowa
Greensboro/Baylor/MissSt/Miami/OregonState
Portland/Oregon/NCSTATE/Marquette/Gonzaga
Chicago/Louisville/STANFORD/Iowa/South Carolin
Any thoughts

 

[Plebe]

Unfortunately the committee continues to use the RPI as their criteria for seeding and selections which has inherent flaws, most of which does not take into account the BY perspective! How dare they!

A fair question might be though, is the RPI more skewed in favor of the P5 schools than either Massey or WarrenNolan? Or is the flaw universally applied?

The committee is well aware of the flaws and limitations of the RPI.

Notre Dame was #1 in the RPI but #6 in the committee's "reveal."
Oregon State was about #30 last week in the RPI but was #12 in the reveal.

 

[Plebe]

Albany UCONN/ND/MARYLAND/Iowa
Greensboro/Baylor/MissSt/Miami/OregonState
Portland/Oregon/NCSTATE/Marquette/Gonzaga
Chicago/Louisville/STANFORD/Iowa/South Carolin
Any thoughts

You have Iowa twice.
Good strategy to make UConn's Sweet 16 opponent play in two different regions

 

[Plebe]

Not true .... if there 5 or more teams from the PAC-12 in the tournament than there must be at least two teams at least one bracket.

I see Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona State, Stanford in the tournament. And there is a good case for at least one more.

From the committee's manual:

"Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines."

So the only way Oregon and Stanford can be sent to the same region is if (a) one of them is seeded 5 or below, or (b) the committee selects 4 other Pac-12 teams ahead of one of them.

Neither is likely.

 

[Bear11]

Albany UCONN/ND/MARYLAND/Iowa
Greensboro/Baylor/MissSt/Miami/OregonState
Portland/Oregon/NCSTATE/Marquette/Gonzaga
Chicago/Louisville/STANFORD/Iowa/South Carolin
Any thoughts

NC State is not a 2 seed, and if they were I sure hope they get sent to the overall number one's region. As a Baylor fan, I'd be really mad if we got stuck with Mississippi State while a lower team got NC State.

 

[bbballfan23]

NC State is not a 2 seed, and if they were I sure hope they get sent to the overall number one's region. As a Baylor fan, I'd be really mad if we got stuck with Mississippi State while a lower team got NC State.

I agree, give me NC State or Stanford all day long as a 2 seed.

 

[Plebe]

ESPN just posted Creme's latest projection:
Bracketology with Charlie Creme

Highlights:

• He has UConn as the #4 overall and ND as #5.
• NC State is still the last #2 seed.
• Miami and Oregon State move up to #3 seeds.
• Marquette drops to a #4 seed.
• UCF is still in the field ... barely.
• Utah drops to "first four out."

 

[Bear11]

I agree, give me NC State or Stanford all day long as a 2 seed.

And then Creme says that Mississippi State is going to Greensboro. I don't get it. Why is the overall number 1 being punished? I don't care if its a "home" game for NC State, they aren't even close to Mississippi State. I'm not even sure why NC State is still a 2 seed. I hope Creme is slipping. If Baylor wins out and gets that bracket, Kim Mulkey and all Baylor fans would be livid.

 

[Orangutan]

ESPN just posted Creme's latest projection:
Bracketology with Charlie Creme

Highlights:

• He has UConn as the #4 overall and ND as #5.
• NC State is still the last #2 seed.
• Miami and Oregon State move up to #3 seeds.
• Marquette drops to a #4 seed.
• UCF is still in the field ... barely.
• Utah drops to "first four out."

This is what he wrote on Sunday: "But keep an eye on Notre Dame. Should the Fighting Irish beat NC State on Monday (ESPN2, 7 p.m. ET), that would give Notre Dame four RPI top-10 wins. The Huskies and Cardinals have combined for just one. And UConn also has significantly fewer top-50 wins than the other two, and not as strong a schedule."

Warren Nolan is showing NC State as 11 in RPI right now. Maybe that's why ND is still a 2. His rationale for L'ville over ND at this point is "dropping the Cardinals to No. 5 overall seems too much", which isn't exactly an ironclad statement.

Anyway, ACC tourney still to come, lot of games to be played, etc. etc. I still want to see ND as a #1 in these projections even though they don't matter one bit at this point.

 

[bbballfan23]

ESPN just posted Creme's latest projection:
Bracketology with Charlie Creme

Highlights:

• He has UConn as the #4 overall and ND as #5.
• NC State is still the last #2 seed.
• Miami and Oregon State move up to #3 seeds.
• Marquette drops to a #4 seed.
• UCF is still in the field ... barely.
• Utah drops to "first four out."

I stopped listening to Creme a long time ago. This just won’t be the case. No chance they put ND & UConn together. Committee is smarter than that.

 

[Alydar]

Oregon has 11 quadrant 1 wins (top 50 RPI), to UConn's 6. 5 of those wins for Oregon are over top 25 RPI teams. UConn has 4 RPI top 25 wins, but 2 of those are over UCF, who I don't think anyone truly believes to be a top 25 team. UConn has the better losses, but Oregon makes up for it with more strong wins. I don't think UConn can pass Oregon in the eyes of the committee unless Oregon takes another loss.

The "top 50 wins" is a fine stat when you have 7 teams all about the same and only 3 slots left on the board. but not of much use as a measure of quality wins for a team looking for a 1 seed. The 20-50 teams slide up and down those rankings all season and any team looking for a 1 seed should "easily" beat any of them. It's just a function of the limited elite talent that ends up concentrated in about 20 teams. When giving out 1 and 2 seeds the question should be "can this team beat a top 5 team on a neutral court?" One seeds win against other top 5 teams. And if you compare the contenders UConn has the best win, a road win against then No 1 by 18 pts. Baylor has beaten no one of note on the road but then Baylor rarely plays any OOC games at that level and there isn't another team close to that level this year in the B12. But they did beat UConn, not badly but decisively. Louisville had probably their best game beating UConn since the Irish Massacre last season. So UConn lost 2 of handful of top level games. But very few had even 2 road games against 1/2 seed type teams. UConn had 3.

But why care at all? You want to be the champ? Then don't act like you need an easy path.

 

[willtalk]

Creme seems to change his criteria as the mood strikes him.

 

[DallasBUFan]

The "top 50 wins" is a fine stat when you have 7 teams all about the same and only 3 slots left on the board. but not of much use as a measure of quality wins for a team looking for a 1 seed. The 20-50 teams slide up and down those rankings all season and any team looking for a 1 seed should "easily" beat any of them. It's just a function of the limited elite talent that ends up concentrated in about 20 teams. When giving out 1 and 2 seeds the question should be "can this team beat a top 5 team on a neutral court?" One seeds win against other top 5 teams. And if you compare the contenders UConn has the best win, a road win against then No 1 by 18 pts. Baylor has beaten no one of note on the road but then Baylor rarely plays any OOC games at that level and there isn't another team close to that level this year in the B12. But they did beat UConn, not badly but decisively. Louisville had probably their best game beating UConn since the Irish Massacre last season. So UConn lost 2 of handful of top level games. But very few had even 2 road games against 1/2 seed type teams. UConn had 3.

But why care at all? You want to be the champ? Then don't act like you need an easy path.

It's called earning it. Baylor's OOC was just as good as anyone's in the top this year. Part earning overall number 1 seed is earning the easiest route to the championship.

 

[Alydar]

I stopped listening to Creme a long time ago. This just won’t be the case. No chance they put ND & UConn together. Committee is smarter than that.

I think that in the last 3 years a deal was made between Charlie and the NCAA where they float various scenarios to the public under his name. In the end they avoid a lot of the complaints and in return Charlie looks like a genius. Win-win.
I say this because up to maybe 3 years ago his projections were filled with procedural errors and never looked like the final seeds. Then, all of a sudden he wrote about how he attended an NCAA training session and suddenly his charts matched up, a little too close.

 

[Bear11]

The "top 50 wins" is a fine stat when you have 7 teams all about the same and only 3 slots left on the board. but not of much use as a measure of quality wins for a team looking for a 1 seed. The 20-50 teams slide up and down those rankings all season and any team looking for a 1 seed should "easily" beat any of them. It's just a function of the limited elite talent that ends up concentrated in about 20 teams. When giving out 1 and 2 seeds the question should be "can this team beat a top 5 team on a neutral court?" One seeds win against other top 5 teams. And if you compare the contenders UConn has the best win, a road win against then No 1 by 18 pts. Baylor has beaten no one of note on the road but then Baylor rarely plays any OOC games at that level and there isn't another team close to that level this year in the B12. But they did beat UConn, not badly but decisively. Louisville had probably their best game beating UConn since the Irish Massacre last season. So UConn lost 2 of handful of top level games. But very few had even 2 road games against 1/2 seed type teams. UConn had 3.

But why care at all? You want to be the champ? Then don't act like you need an easy path.

Baylor beat Arizona State and South Carolina on the road. Those are certainly wins of note.

I did not invent these criteria to somehow benefit my own team. These are the criteria that the committee uses, and we have seen many times over the years that they value a high volume of good wins over all other criteria, even if a team takes more losses. I have my opinions about the top teams, but that isn't what I'm listing here. These are the facts that will be used by the committee when the ranking is made.

It is commonly said in March that you just have to "beat the one in front of you" and not care about seeding. This is true in the literal sense, and the appropriate attitude once the real bracket is revealed. But in reality, it is a series of games, each one with a chance of losing and winning. Increasing your odds by even a little bit in each individual game is important. A beneficial bracket can have a significant effect on a team's chances, even if they are the favorite going in. It is not unreasonable for the number one overall seed to expect to be given the benefit of the bracket.

For instance, Creme currently has Mississippi State in Baylor's region. That would be a terrible bracket. Massey currently says that Baylor would beat MSU 56% of the time. It also says Baylor beats NC State 87% of the time. It is only reasonable to want to face the lesser team. If anyone has questions about the benefits of a good bracket, ask the 2017 South Carolina team.

 

[Alydar]

It's called earning it. Baylor's OOC was just as good as anyone's in the top this year. Part earning overall number 1 seed is earning the easiest route to the championship.

Baylor has had 2 top 10 (Massey) games this year, one home one road. They were 1-1. UConn had 3 top 10's (maybe 4 if SC can beat Miss St) all 3 on the road and went 1-2. If SC sneaks in they would have 2 top 10 wins.

Stats are all about how you look at them.

 

[Monte]

Bracketology with Charlie Creme

 

[Alydar]

Baylor beat Arizona State and South Carolina on the road. Those are certainly wins of note.

I did not invent these criteria to somehow benefit my own team. These are the criteria that the committee uses, and we have seen many times over the years that they value a high volume of good wins over all other criteria, even if a team takes more losses. I have my opinions about the top teams, but that isn't what I'm listing here. These are the facts that will be used by the committee when the ranking is made.

Bull. I've lived through 25 years of these selection shows and the committee picks and chooses through their impossibly complex "policies & procedures" every year. One year "they were bound by geography" Next year it was the "sanctity of the S curve". Or it was "maintaining balance within the bracket". Very little consistency.

It is commonly said in March that you just have to "beat the one in front of you" and not care about seeding. This is true in the literal sense

, and the appropriate attitude once the real bracket is revealed. But in reality, it is a series of games, each one with a chance of losing and winning. Increasing your odds by even a little bit in each individual game is important. A beneficial bracket can have a significant effect on a team's chances, even if they are the favorite going in.

You should have stopped at the bolded part. You never know who will raise their game and who will play badly.

It is not unreasonable for the number one overall seed to expect to be given the benefit of the bracket.

Yeah, like 2008, when UConn was the overall 1 seed and the committee sent overall 5 seed Rutgers to UConn's region. The 4th 1 seed was between Rutgers and some other team. UConn was playing Rutgers for the 3rd time and won in a battle. Five days later they lost to Stanford in the famous Montgunnery meltdown. The reasoning that year was that the committee was bound by geography. There is the value the committee places on the S curve when it doesn't suit their desires.

For instance, Creme currently has Mississippi State in Baylor's region. That would be a terrible bracket. Massey currently says that Baylor would beat MSU 56% of the time. It also says Baylor beats NC State 87% of the time. It is only reasonable to want to face the lesser team.

There you go again trying to associate "reasonable" to the committee. I would be very happy to just select all 32 at large teams using Massey and then seed them using Massey.


If anyone has questions about the benefits of a good bracket, ask the 2017 South Carolina team.

 

[oldude]

Bracketology with Charlie Creme

So if this bracket actually comes to pass, do UConn fans root for the Lady Vols over the Lady Bears?