Bracketology

[Jbigfan]

Looking back through years past, Charlie Creme’s brackets haven’t matched up well with the official ncaa brackets. Maybe somebody can check his past efficiency rating.

 

[willtalk]

I still couldn't figure out how #14 Iowa beats Maryland. Maryland only drops one position and Iowa raises 4 to #10. While Oregon St loses to Oregon and drops 4 to #12. Wow the Big 14 must be one hellava tough league.

On TV they said Creme had Oregon St at a four seed. Implying that they were struggling to stay in the top 16. So they must have already have access to the latest seeds. How could Creme have dropped them from a 3 seed to a 4 just because of their loss to Oregon? The ESPN make it sound like Creme has some credibility out side of just another journalist making a prediction.

 

[Plebe]

On TV they said Creme had Oregon St at a four seed. Implying that they were struggling to stay in the top 16. So they must have already have access to the latest seeds. How could Creme have dropped them from a 3 seed to a 4 just because of their loss to Oregon? The ESPN make it sound like Creme has some credibility out side of just another journalist making a prediction.

Oregon was #12 overall (last 3 seed) in the reveal. I didn't see his latest update, but I suspect that Miami may have moved up to a 3 seed after the win over Louisville, displacing OSU down to the 4 line. Of course, after tonight's big win over Oregon, OSU will probably move back up to a 3.

 

[bbballfan23]

Oregon was #12 overall (last 3 seed) in the reveal. I didn't see his latest update, but I suspect that Miami may have moved up to a 3 seed after the win over Louisville, displacing OSU down to the 4 line. Of course, after tonight's big win over Oregon, OSU will probably move back up to a 3.

Guessing UConn moves up to the 2nd 1 seed for now. If Oregon wins out they will probably re-take it. Hope Hebard is okay, otherwise it will be extremely tough for Oregon to overcome, especially this late in the season.

 

[Jmsdawg]

Guessing UConn moves up to the 2nd 1 seed for now. If Oregon wins out they will probably re-take it. Hope Hebard is okay, otherwise it will be extremely tough for Oregon to overcome, especially this late in the season.

My top 4 would be 1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. UConn 4. Louisville. I do not see moving UConn ahead of Oregon based upon results as of today. Now if Hebard is out for the year I would have Oregon at 4 with UConn 2 and Louisville 3.

 

[Plebe]

Guessing UConn moves up to the 2nd 1 seed for now. If Oregon wins out they will probably re-take it. Hope Hebard is okay, otherwise it will be extremely tough for Oregon to overcome, especially this late in the season.

No, highly doubtful. This loss doesn't really hurt Oregon's resume much at all in the committee's eyes, and their resume of quality wins remains stronger than UConn's.

UConn is most likely the 4th #1 seed at this point.

 

[bbballfan23]

No, highly doubtful. This loss doesn't really hurt Oregon's resume much at all in the committee's eyes, and their resume of quality wins remains stronger than UConn's.

UConn is most likely the 4th #1 seed at this point.

Okay Debbie Antonelli, whatever you say

 

[Plebe]

Okay Debbie Antonelli, whatever you say

Sorry if you don't like the message, but the committee has been very consistent over the years in how it evaluates resumes.

The poll rankings have accustomed us to assume that just because a team loses a game they most drop. Doesn't necessarily work that way with the selection committee.

 

[Hayven]

Didn’t Oregon lose to Michigan’s State? A team that may not make the tournament. That has to hurt their chances of a 1 seed

 

[oldude]

Didn’t Oregon lose to Michigan’s State? A team that may not make the tournament. That has to hurt their chances of a 1 seed

Yes. MSU is currently 9th in the BIG, coming off back-to-back losses to lowly WI & NB.

 

[Bear11]

Sorry if you don't like the message, but the committee has been very consistent over the years in how it evaluates resumes.

The poll rankings have accustomed us to assume that just because a team loses a game they most drop. Doesn't necessarily work that way with the selection committee.

I agree. Last night was pretty much a perfect storm in Oregon. Playing the same team twice in 3 days, tough road environment, and an injury to a major player. Oregon still has a stronger resume and will remain as the number 2 overall unless they lose again. Let's not forget that Oregon has wins over Mississippi State, @Stanford, Oregon State, and Syracuse.

 

[bbballfan23]

Sorry if you don't like the message, but the committee has been very consistent over the years in how it evaluates resumes.

The poll rankings have accustomed us to assume that just because a team loses a game they most drop. Doesn't necessarily work that way with the selection committee.

You realize the two games we lost were to #1 on the road & # 4 on the road and we dropped to 6?? So yes, just because you lose a game, you will drop. That’s how this works at the top.

 

[Plebe]

You realize the two games we lost were to #1 on the road & # 4 on the road and we dropped to 6?? So yes, just because you lose a game, you will drop. That’s how this works at the top.

No, it's not.

You're talking about the games UConn *lost*. That's not the problem. The problem is the games that UConn *hasn't won*, which have left it with a deficiency of quality wins. All of the other 5 contenders for #1 seeds, except for Mississippi State, have significantly more.

 

[mbr33ct]

I agree. Last night was pretty much a perfect storm in Oregon. Playing the same team twice in 3 days, tough road environment, and an injury to a major player. Oregon still has a stronger resume and will remain as the number 2 overall unless they lose again. Let's not forget that Oregon has wins over Mississippi State, @Stanford, Oregon State, and Syracuse.

Don't know how much stronger a resume Oregon has over UConn, below are side by side comparisons of the two teams, from WarrenNolan.com. My eye test tells me they are pretty much the same. Oregon has played 3 more games at home and 3 game less at a neutral site compared to UConn. I will reserve judgement to others to analyze and slice 'n dice these stats of the two teams.

Unless they end up playing head to head, one can only guess who has the "stronger resume". Let's not also forget UConn has wins over #16 DePaul (all at the time played), #1 ND, #14 Cal and #11 South Car. The two losses, as previous poster mentioned were both away games and "tough road environments" to #8 Baylor and #3 Louisville.

 

[Bear11]

Don't know how much stronger a resume Oregon has over UConn, below are side by side comparisons of the two teams, from WarrenNolan.com. My eye test tells me they are pretty much the same. Oregon has played 3 more games at home and 3 game less at a neutral site compared to UConn. I will reserve judgement to others to analyze and slice 'n dice these stats of the two teams.

Unless they end up playing head to head, one can only guess who has the "stronger resume". Let's not also forget UConn has wins over #16 DePaul (all at the time played), #1 ND, #14 Cal and #11 South Car. The two losses, as previous poster mentioned were both away games and "tough road environments" to #8 Baylor and #3 Louisville.


View attachment 39852

Oregon has 11 quadrant 1 wins (top 50 RPI), to UConn's 6. 5 of those wins for Oregon are over top 25 RPI teams. UConn has 4 RPI top 25 wins, but 2 of those are over UCF, who I don't think anyone truly believes to be a top 25 team. UConn has the better losses, but Oregon makes up for it with more strong wins. I don't think UConn can pass Oregon in the eyes of the committee unless Oregon takes another loss.

 

[oldude]

No, it's not.

You're talking about the games UConn *lost*. That's not the problem. The problem is the games that UConn *hasn't won*, which have left it with a deficiency of quality wins. All of the other 5 contenders for #1 seeds, except for Mississippi State, have significantly more.

If ND wins the ACC and SC wins the SEC, both of which are strong possibilities, then UConn will have 2 very strong wins on their resume. The win vs #1 ND, on the road, earns UConn bonus points. Baylor and UConn should both win out. Here’s why I believe UConn has a very good chance to be the #2 overall seed.

Oregon’s best road win was vs a depleted #7 Stanford. They also have a bad loss vs MI St. If the Ducks win out, including the Pac12 tournament, it’s a very close call as to whether they’re seeded ahead of UConn. If they lose another game, there is no chance.

Louisville’s best road win was vs #17 ASU by 2. Their recent loss at home to a decent Miami team is certainly a setback to their seeding. Louisville has to win out, including the ACC tournament to be seeded ahead of UConn imo.

Finally, ND’s best road win is over #11 Marquette. Their loss at home to UConn along with two road losses, including a particularly bad one to UNC make it virtually impossible for the Irish to leapfrog UConn imo, although they still could be the favorite to win the ACC tournament.

Time will tell. But UConn is in a nice position and the Huskies are playing their best basketball of the season over the past 4 games as they round into form for the Big Dance.

 

[bbballfan23]

If ND wins the ACC and SC wins the SEC, both of which are strong possibilities, then UConn will have 2 very strong wins on their resume. The win vs #1 ND, on the road, earns UConn bonus points. Baylor and UConn should both win out. Here’s why I believe UConn has a very good chance to be the #2 overall seed.

Oregon’s best road win was vs a depleted #7 Stanford. They also have a bad loss vs MI St. If the Ducks win out, including the Pac12 tournament, it’s a very close call as to whether they’re seeded ahead of UConn. If they lose another game, there is no chance.

Louisville’s best road win was vs #17 ASU by 2. Their recent loss at home to a decent Miami team is certainly a setback to their seeding. Louisville has to win out, including the ACC tournament to be seeded ahead of UConn imo.

Finally, ND’s best road win is over #11 Marquette. Their loss at home to UConn along with two road losses, including a particularly bad one to UNC make it virtually impossible for the Irish to leapfrog UConn imo, although they still could be the favorite to win the ACC tournament.

Time will tell. But UConn is in a nice position and the Huskies are playing their best basketball of the season over the past 4 games as they round into form for the Big Dance.

Agree. People want to discredit UConn so much it’s a bit annoying. Let’s face it. Beating teams ranked 20th or above don’t mean much to me because there’s a HUGE gap. But losing to those teams is really eye-opening that there are major flaws on a team. Never heard of a team punished more for two top 5 road losses in my life.

Cue the “but that’s not what the committee looks at” responses. At some point eye-test and common sense are used during seedings. Just not much here on the BY.

 

[oldude]

Agree. People want to discredit UConn so much it’s a bit annoying. Let’s face it. Beating teams ranked 20th or above don’t mean much to me because there’s a HUGE gap. But losing to those teams is really eye-opening that there are major flaws on a team. Never heard of a team punished more for two top 5 road losses in my life.

Cue the “but that’s not what the committee looks at” responses. At some point eye-test and common sense are used during seedings. Just not much here on the BY.

Well stated. Be careful though. You don’t want to be accused of consistently making rational and thoughtful arguments here on the BY. Mix it up now and then by throwing in an occasional “The sky is falling” post.

 

[Orangutan]

Agree. People want to discredit UConn so much it’s a bit annoying. Let’s face it. Beating teams ranked 20th or above don’t mean much to me because there’s a HUGE gap. But losing to those teams is really eye-opening that there are major flaws on a team. Never heard of a team punished more for two top 5 road losses in my life.

Cue the “but that’s not what the committee looks at” responses. At some point eye-test and common sense are used during seedings. Just not much here on the BY.

Playing in a tough conference like the PAC12 or ACC puts you in more of these tricky no-win situations where you are playing a team somewhere between 15 and 50 in RPI and you will get no credit for winning by 30 but slammed if you lose.

That's why I think the sheer amount of top-50 wins you rack up does matter somewhat. UConn has certainly had some underwhelming performances against lesser opponents (Oklahoma, for example). If they had had one of those games against a stronger team, they might not have been to pull through with a win. They just haven't played as many of those games.

I think Oregon is still #2 if Hebard will be available for the tourney. If she's out, that could be tiebreaker that puts UConn ahead.

It's very close, though, and I would have no problem with UConn at #2.

 

[huskeynut]

No, it's not.

You're talking about the games UConn *lost*. That's not the problem. The problem is the games that UConn *hasn't won*, which have left it with a deficiency of quality wins. All of the other 5 contenders for #1 seeds, except for Mississippi State, have significantly more.

Plebe - do you really want to open up a can of worms. We all know the competition in the AAC is weak. There is nothing UConn can do about it.

 

[ConnecticutBB]

Can someone clear this up for me. During the half of the second game last night, I believe a graph was put on the TV screen showing in the Albany region. UCONN/ND/ unable to remember the other 2 schools...Miss State was moved to Greensboro ...I could be completely wrong..does anyone remember what Charlie's new projections are?

 

[DefenseBB]

Unfortunately the committee continues to use the RPI as their criteria for seeding and selections which has inherent flaws, most of which does not take into account the BY perspective! How dare they!

A fair question might be though, is the RPI more skewed in favor of the P5 schools than either Massey or WarrenNolan? Or is the flaw universally applied?

 

[CajunHusky]

I think there will be some moving in the brackets after a straightforward bracket is made.

For example, I think Stanford is going to the Oregon regional. I think the NCAA owes it to them and their fans after the cross country travel the last couple of years.

 

[Plebe]

Plebe - do you really want to open up a can of worms. We all know the competition in the AAC is weak. There is nothing UConn can do about it.

This isn't really about conferences. In the previous few years UConn picked up plenty of top 25 and top 50 wins in its nonconference schedule. This year, not as much. And that's not just because of the 2 losses to Louisville and Baylor. It's also because UConn's nonconference schedule was weaker this year than in previous seasons.

 

[oldude]

I think Oregon is still #2 if Hebard will be available for the tourney. If she's out, that could be tiebreaker that puts UConn ahead.

While it’s not definitive yet, Kelly Graves somewhat ominously indicated after the game that Hebard’s injury, “Doesn’t look good.”