Bracketology | Page 3 | The Boneyard

Bracketology

oldude said:
One additional point to be made when it comes to seeding and who goes where. WBB, as much as any other sport, is characterized by layers. SOS is nice, but games vs the very top layer should carry much more weight in WBB imo.

At this point in time the very top layer of WBB includes 6 teams: Baylor, Oregon, Louisville, MS St, ND & UConn. Of those teams, UConn is the only team to play 3 other top teams on their home court, let alone beat one.

There will be a lot of talk about who goes where for the Big Dance. But you can be sure that the last thing that Kim, Kelly, Jeff, Vic or MM want is to end up in Albany as either the #1 or #2 seed.
Expand ...
Completely agree! Everyone knows there is a huge drop off after team 6 or 7.
 
bbballfan23 said:
There’s no way at this point ND jumps UConn. They have more losses & loss the head to head. UConn fans want ND to winout at this point because it helps boost our strength of schedule. No chance UConn falls to the #2 line, unless they somehow drop a game.
Expand ...

If ND wins out.. I think they would jump UConn. Wins at state.. Syracuse.. Vs Miami and Louisville, that would do it .
 
triaddukefan said:
If ND wins out.. I think they would jump UConn. Wins at state.. Syracuse.. Vs Miami and Louisville, that would do it .
Expand ...
Not sure if I agree, although the Irish will get a really big boost if they somehow manage to beat the Blue Devils in South Bend on Thursday. :rolleyes:
 
bbballfan23 said:
There’s no way at this point ND jumps UConn. They have more losses & loss the head to head. UConn fans want ND to winout at this point because it helps boost our strength of schedule. No chance UConn falls to the #2 line, unless they somehow drop a game.
Expand ...
This just isn't true at all. Notre Dame could definitely overtake UConn. If they win out the committee will likely consider ND's overall resume to be stronger. UConn has the wins over ND and SC but very little else. ND already has wins over Louisville, Iowa, Oregon State and Marquette, and if they win out they'll have wins over NC State, Syracuse and then likely additional wins over Louisville and another high quality team.
 
Last edited:
.-.
Plebe said:
This just isn't true at all. Notre Dame could definitely overtake UConn. If they win out the committee will likely consider ND's overall resume to be stronger. UConn has the wins over ND and SC but very little else. ND already has wins over Louisville, Iowa, Oregon State and Marquette, and if they win out they'll have wins over NC State, Syracuse and then likely additional wins over Louisville and another high quality team.
Expand ...
That’s great but you know they also take LOSSES into account? North Carolina is a bad bad loss.
 
Didn't Notre Dame get a 1 seed last year over other teams with less losses because of SOS and having more top 50 and top 25 wins? They had like 3-4 losses.
 
DallasBUFan said:
Didn't Notre Dame get a 1 seed last year over other teams with less losses because of SOS and having more top 50 and top 25 wins? They had like 3-4 losses.
Expand ...
They had 3 losses (2 to Louisville, 1 to UConn).
The only lower seed that had fewer losses was Baylor with 1 loss, a #2 seed.
 
DefenseBB said:
Ok, I'll bite, what critics? Let's look at the 6 teams really in discussion for an #1
Baylor-is a lock to get it as only Iowa St and Texas are somewhat talented but neither poses a real threat. I think even if they lose, they will still be a #1.
Oregon-They are probably playing the best of all the teams at the moment and also have the hardest road of the top 6. If they lose, I suspect they keep a #1 but if they fall to a #2 they will still get sent to Portland-no one will complain.
Louisville-As currently sits, they are the #3 seed in the ACC Tournament (kind of crazy but true) so they would have to beat ND in the Semi's and than either Miami, NC State or Syracuse in a Final. They win out, they head to Chicago as #1. They lose, they are a #2, probably in Greensboro
UConn-easiest path of the 6. Headed to Albany as #1.
ND-See Louisville scenario above. IF they lose, they have 4 losses including a loss to UConn so no one will be complaining. If any noise starts to surface, someone mumbles "North Carolina Cheat" nuf ced.
MSU-The only thing standing in their way to an SEC championship is SC. They are most likely a #2 but if something crazy happens to Oregon or Baylor, the could get a #1 and Greensboro, not likely and not much to complain about considering the loss to Mizzou who just lost at home to Tenn.

So, what Critics have a logical complaint about UConn as a #1?
Expand ...

Antonelli? She won't have a logical complaint, but if she argues that UCONN doesn't deserve it, she'll manufacture an illogical one.
 
DefenseBB said:
Ok, I'll bite, what critics? Let's look at the 6 teams really in discussion for an #1
Baylor-is a lock to get it as only Iowa St and Texas are somewhat talented but neither poses a real threat. I think even if they lose, they will still be a #1.
Oregon-They are probably playing the best of all the teams at the moment and also have the hardest road of the top 6. If they lose, I suspect they keep a #1 but if they fall to a #2 they will still get sent to Portland-no one will complain.
Louisville-As currently sits, they are the #3 seed in the ACC Tournament (kind of crazy but true) so they would have to beat ND in the Semi's and than either Miami, NC State or Syracuse in a Final. They win out, they head to Chicago as #1. They lose, they are a #2, probably in Greensboro
UConn-easiest path of the 6. Headed to Albany as #1.
ND-See Louisville scenario above. IF they lose, they have 4 losses including a loss to UConn so no one will be complaining. If any noise starts to surface, someone mumbles "North Carolina Cheat" nuf ced.
MSU-The only thing standing in their way to an SEC championship is SC. They are most likely a #2 but if something crazy happens to Oregon or Baylor, the could get a #1 and Greensboro, not likely and not much to complain about considering the loss to Mizzou who just lost at home to Tenn.

So, what Critics have a logical complaint about UConn as a #1?
Expand ...
Good analysis, I agree. Real question is which number 1 seeds get to face top number 2 seeds.
 
.-.
Creme has been releasing his bracketology updates on Mondays, but apparently not today.
I guess he's waiting until tomorrow, to reflect the impact of tonight's games.

If Oregon can sweep Oregon State, they may overtake Baylor as overall #1.
If Beaver State beats the Ducks, they could challenge for the last #2 seed.
The outcome of the ND-State game could similarly have an impact.
 
Plebe said:
Creme has been releasing his bracketology updates on Mondays, but apparently not today.
I guess he's waiting until tomorrow, to reflect the impact of tonight's games.

If Oregon can sweep Oregon State, they may overtake Baylor as overall #1.
If Beaver State beats the Ducks, they could challenge for the last #2 seed.
The outcome of the ND-State game could similarly have an impact.
Expand ...
yeah, He got it wrong last week , had to tweet an update one day later.....I guess he does not want to make the same mistake too sonn.
 
Looking back through years past, Charlie Creme’s brackets haven’t matched up well with the official ncaa brackets. Maybe somebody can check his past efficiency rating.
 
I still couldn't figure out how #14 Iowa beats Maryland. Maryland only drops one position and Iowa raises 4 to #10. While Oregon St loses to Oregon and drops 4 to #12. Wow the Big 14 must be one hellava tough league.

On TV they said Creme had Oregon St at a four seed. Implying that they were struggling to stay in the top 16. So they must have already have access to the latest seeds. How could Creme have dropped them from a 3 seed to a 4 just because of their loss to Oregon? The ESPN make it sound like Creme has some credibility out side of just another journalist making a prediction.
 
willtalk said:
On TV they said Creme had Oregon St at a four seed. Implying that they were struggling to stay in the top 16. So they must have already have access to the latest seeds. How could Creme have dropped them from a 3 seed to a 4 just because of their loss to Oregon? The ESPN make it sound like Creme has some credibility out side of just another journalist making a prediction.
Expand ...
Oregon was #12 overall (last 3 seed) in the reveal. I didn't see his latest update, but I suspect that Miami may have moved up to a 3 seed after the win over Louisville, displacing OSU down to the 4 line. Of course, after tonight's big win over Oregon, OSU will probably move back up to a 3.
 
.-.
Plebe said:
Oregon was #12 overall (last 3 seed) in the reveal. I didn't see his latest update, but I suspect that Miami may have moved up to a 3 seed after the win over Louisville, displacing OSU down to the 4 line. Of course, after tonight's big win over Oregon, OSU will probably move back up to a 3.
Expand ...
Guessing UConn moves up to the 2nd 1 seed for now. If Oregon wins out they will probably re-take it. Hope Hebard is okay, otherwise it will be extremely tough for Oregon to overcome, especially this late in the season.
 
bbballfan23 said:
Guessing UConn moves up to the 2nd 1 seed for now. If Oregon wins out they will probably re-take it. Hope Hebard is okay, otherwise it will be extremely tough for Oregon to overcome, especially this late in the season.
Expand ...
My top 4 would be 1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. UConn 4. Louisville. I do not see moving UConn ahead of Oregon based upon results as of today. Now if Hebard is out for the year I would have Oregon at 4 with UConn 2 and Louisville 3.
 
bbballfan23 said:
Guessing UConn moves up to the 2nd 1 seed for now. If Oregon wins out they will probably re-take it. Hope Hebard is okay, otherwise it will be extremely tough for Oregon to overcome, especially this late in the season.
Expand ...
No, highly doubtful. This loss doesn't really hurt Oregon's resume much at all in the committee's eyes, and their resume of quality wins remains stronger than UConn's.

UConn is most likely the 4th #1 seed at this point.
 
bbballfan23 said:
Okay Debbie Antonelli, whatever you say ;)
Expand ...
Sorry if you don't like the message, but the committee has been very consistent over the years in how it evaluates resumes.

The poll rankings have accustomed us to assume that just because a team loses a game they most drop. Doesn't necessarily work that way with the selection committee.
 
Didn’t Oregon lose to Michigan’s State? A team that may not make the tournament. That has to hurt their chances of a 1 seed
 
.-.
Hayven said:
Didn’t Oregon lose to Michigan’s State? A team that may not make the tournament. That has to hurt their chances of a 1 seed
Expand ...
Yes. MSU is currently 9th in the BIG, coming off back-to-back losses to lowly WI & NB.
 
Plebe said:
Sorry if you don't like the message, but the committee has been very consistent over the years in how it evaluates resumes.

The poll rankings have accustomed us to assume that just because a team loses a game they most drop. Doesn't necessarily work that way with the selection committee.
Expand ...
I agree. Last night was pretty much a perfect storm in Oregon. Playing the same team twice in 3 days, tough road environment, and an injury to a major player. Oregon still has a stronger resume and will remain as the number 2 overall unless they lose again. Let's not forget that Oregon has wins over Mississippi State, @Stanford, Oregon State, and Syracuse.
 
Plebe said:
Sorry if you don't like the message, but the committee has been very consistent over the years in how it evaluates resumes.

The poll rankings have accustomed us to assume that just because a team loses a game they most drop. Doesn't necessarily work that way with the selection committee.
Expand ...
You realize the two games we lost were to #1 on the road & # 4 on the road and we dropped to 6?? So yes, just because you lose a game, you will drop. That’s how this works at the top.
 
bbballfan23 said:
You realize the two games we lost were to #1 on the road & # 4 on the road and we dropped to 6?? So yes, just because you lose a game, you will drop. That’s how this works at the top.
Expand ...
No, it's not.

You're talking about the games UConn *lost*. That's not the problem. The problem is the games that UConn *hasn't won*, which have left it with a deficiency of quality wins. All of the other 5 contenders for #1 seeds, except for Mississippi State, have significantly more.
 
Bear11 said:
I agree. Last night was pretty much a perfect storm in Oregon. Playing the same team twice in 3 days, tough road environment, and an injury to a major player. Oregon still has a stronger resume and will remain as the number 2 overall unless they lose again. Let's not forget that Oregon has wins over Mississippi State, @Stanford, Oregon State, and Syracuse.
Expand ...

Don't know how much stronger a resume Oregon has over UConn, below are side by side comparisons of the two teams, from WarrenNolan.com. My eye test tells me they are pretty much the same. Oregon has played 3 more games at home and 3 game less at a neutral site compared to UConn. I will reserve judgement to others to analyze and slice 'n dice these stats of the two teams.

Unless they end up playing head to head, one can only guess who has the "stronger resume". Let's not also forget UConn has wins over #16 DePaul (all at the time played), #1 ND, #14 Cal and #11 South Car. The two losses, as previous poster mentioned were both away games and "tough road environments" to #8 Baylor and #3 Louisville.


1550592989071.png
 
mbr33ct said:
Don't know how much stronger a resume Oregon has over UConn, below are side by side comparisons of the two teams, from WarrenNolan.com. My eye test tells me they are pretty much the same. Oregon has played 3 more games at home and 3 game less at a neutral site compared to UConn. I will reserve judgement to others to analyze and slice 'n dice these stats of the two teams.

Unless they end up playing head to head, one can only guess who has the "stronger resume". Let's not also forget UConn has wins over #16 DePaul (all at the time played), #1 ND, #14 Cal and #11 South Car. The two losses, as previous poster mentioned were both away games and "tough road environments" to #8 Baylor and #3 Louisville.


View attachment 39852
Expand ...
Oregon has 11 quadrant 1 wins (top 50 RPI), to UConn's 6. 5 of those wins for Oregon are over top 25 RPI teams. UConn has 4 RPI top 25 wins, but 2 of those are over UCF, who I don't think anyone truly believes to be a top 25 team. UConn has the better losses, but Oregon makes up for it with more strong wins. I don't think UConn can pass Oregon in the eyes of the committee unless Oregon takes another loss.
 
.-.
You must log in or register to reply here.

Forum statistics

Threads
167,982
Messages
4,548,245
Members
10,431
Latest member
TeganK


Top Bottom