Bracketology

[DefenseBB]

Bracketology with Charlie Creme

WTH Monte?.. I used to like you, now, by posting this drivel of 8 SEC Teams making the Tournament has irritated me to no end, pity my team members in my afternoon meetings today.
ITs bad enough Tenn will probably get in but LSU and Auburn? No freakin way either one deserves it! The SEC is the WORST OF THE P5 for crying out loud....

 

[Plebe]

And then Creme says that Mississippi State is going to Greensboro. I don't get it. Why is the overall number 1 being punished? I don't care if its a "home" game for NC State, they aren't even close to Mississippi State. I'm not even sure why NC State is still a 2 seed. I hope Creme is slipping. If Baylor wins out and gets that bracket, Kim Mulkey and all Baylor fans would be livid.

The committee surprised him (and everyone) in their reveal last Monday when they put then-overall #6 Notre Dame in Greensboro with #1 Baylor. I believe the committee did this because they didn't want to send Notre Dame out to the west coast for a second year in a row (by strict S-curve they should've been paired with #3 Oregon in Portland).

However, if Notre Dame is sent to Albany as overall #5 (as in his current bracket), the committee no longer has that reason to deviate from the S-curve to send the overall #6 (in this case MSU) to Greensboro.

Assuming that Creme's current overall seedings are as follows...

1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. Louisville 4. UConn​

5. ND 6. Miss St 7. Stanford 8. NC St​

9. Oregon St 10. Iowa 11. Maryland 12. Miami​

13. SC 14. Marquette 15. Iowa St 16. Gonzaga​

We'd be more likely to see these pairings, IMHO:

Greensboro: 1. Baylor 2. NC St 3. Oregon St 4. Gonzaga​

Portland: 1. Oregon 2. Miss St 3. Miami 4. Iowa St​

Chicago: 1. Louisville 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. SC​

Albany: 1. UConn 2. ND 3. Maryland 4. Marquette​

 

[LETTERL]

Baylor beat Arizona State and South Carolina on the road. Those are certainly wins of note.

I did not invent these criteria to somehow benefit my own team. These are the criteria that the committee uses, and we have seen many times over the years that they value a high volume of good wins over all other criteria, even if a team takes more losses. I have my opinions about the top teams, but that isn't what I'm listing here. These are the facts that will be used by the committee when the ranking is made.

It is commonly said in March that you just have to "beat the one in front of you" and not care about seeding. This is true in the literal sense, and the appropriate attitude once the real bracket is revealed. But in reality, it is a series of games, each one with a chance of losing and winning. Increasing your odds by even a little bit in each individual game is important. A beneficial bracket can have a significant effect on a team's chances, even if they are the favorite going in. It is not unreasonable for the number one overall seed to expect to be given the benefit of the bracket.

For instance, Creme currently has Mississippi State in Baylor's region. That would be a terrible bracket. Massey currently says that Baylor would beat MSU 56% of the time. It also says Baylor beats NC State 87% of the time. It is only reasonable to want to face the lesser team. If anyone has questions about the benefits of a good bracket, ask the 2017 South Carolina team.

Be careful what you wish for. You may get the outcome you were not expecting or ever dreamed possible.

 

[Bear11]

Be careful what you wish for. You may get the outcome you were not expecting or ever dreamed possible.

Don't worry, that's happened 3 years in a row.

 

[DallasBUFan]

Don't worry, that's happened 3 years in a row.

My thoughts exactly!!

 

[Dokey]

The committee surprised him (and everyone) in their reveal last Monday when they put then-overall #6 Notre Dame in Greensboro with #1 Baylor. I believe the committee did this because they didn't want to send Notre Dame out to the west coast for a second year in a row (by strict S-curve they should've been paired with #3 Oregon in Portland).

However, if Notre Dame is sent to Albany as overall #5 (as in his current bracket), the committee no longer has that reason to deviate from the S-curve to send the overall #6 (in this case MSU) to Greensboro.

Assuming that Creme's current overall seedings are as follows...

1. Baylor 2. Oregon 3. Louisville 4. UConn​

5. ND 6. Miss St 7. Stanford 8. NC St​

9. Oregon St 10. Iowa 11. Maryland 12. Miami​

13. SC 14. Marquette 15. Iowa St 16. Gonzaga​

We'd be more likely to see these pairings, IMHO:

Greensboro: 1. Baylor 2. NC St 3. Oregon St 4. Gonzaga​

Portland: 1. Oregon 2. Miss St 3. Miami 4. Iowa St​

Chicago: 1. Louisville 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. SC​

Albany: 1. UConn 2. ND 3. Maryland 4. Marquette​

That puts UConn in toughest regional.

 

[Monte]

WTH Monte?.. I used to like you, now, by posting this drivel of 8 SEC Teams making the Tournament has irritated me to no end, pity my team members in my afternoon meetings today.
ITs bad enough Tenn will probably get in but LSU and Auburn? No freakin way either one deserves it! The SEC is the WORST OF THE P5 for crying out loud....

I'll see if I can contact Charlie!

 

[Alydar]

No need for tears for the Trees. They have had their roots firmly planted in the west for over a decade. For many years they have been the only 1 or 2 seed from the west and by default always got the 1 or 2 seed in the west region. Now granted that often meant a long trip but not nearly as long as their S16 & E8 opponents, none of whom could be from the Pac12. And since the west site was almost always the furthest trip for the eastern schools they either got the weakest 1 seed or the weakest 2 seed.

 

[bbballfan23]

That puts UConn in toughest regional.

Haven’t you heard? Losses don’t matter, nor does beating top 5 teams on the road. Beating teams ranked 25-50 is the most important thing

 

[ed4ourgirls]

If ND wins out (including the ACC tournament) they will be the #1 seed in Chicago, and
we will draw Louisville, or perhaps Stanford if we're the No. 2 1-seed and Stanford
finishes strongly.

 

[Alydar]

It's called earning it. Baylor's OOC was just as good as anyone's in the top this year. Part earning overall number 1 seed is earning the easiest route to the championship.

Massey ranks Baylor's SOS to this point as 5th. That's both conf & non-conf. UConn, who has completed most of it's reg season conf sch is ranked 3rd. So explain how Baylor's OOC was just as tough?

 

[Plebe]

That puts UConn in toughest regional.

How do you figure that?
And besides, in theory, the last #1 seed is *supposed* to get the toughest of the four paths.

 

[Alydar]

So all the times when he has publicly disagreed with the committee's decisions ... those were just staged to make it *look* like they aren't in cahoots?

Frankly I don't remember him disagreeing with much. Maybe when the NCAA moved a team up or down a level or in who the last 4 in ended up being, but Charlie has been right on the money as far as agreeing with not only who the top 16 are but where they go.

 

[Plebe]

Frankly I don't remember him disagreeing with much. Maybe when the NCAA moved a team up or down a level or in who the last 4 in ended up being, but Charlie has been right on the money as far as agreeing with not only who the top 16 are but where they go.

This isn't true at all. He was very outspoken after the reveal last Monday in his view that the regions were too unbalanced. And that's just the latest example.

 

[Bear11]

Massey ranks Baylor's SOS to this point as 5th. That's both conf & non-conf. UConn, who has completed most of it's reg season conf sch is ranked 3rd. So explain how Baylor's OOC was just as tough?

Baylor's projected final SOS is 5th, to UConn's 10th. In any case, we are quibbling over approximately a 1% difference in the actual strength of schedule metric. They are functionally equivalent.

 

[Alydar]

Baylor's projected final SOS is 5th, to UConn's 10th. In any case, we are quibbling over approximately a 1% difference in the actual strength of schedule metric. They are functionally equivalent.

You are arguing right now, at this point, and at this point Baylor, playing in the supposedly tough B12 while UConn is stuck in the sucky AAC and yet UConn has the stronger schedule up to this point.

I have no problem with Baylor being the top seed but don't try and tell anyone that their OOC was tough. ASU & S car are nice teams but not top 10. But I can understand your thinking it after some of the lame OOC sched. Mulkey has come up with lately.

 

[Bear11]

You are arguing right now, at this point, and at this point Baylor, playing in the supposedly tough B12 while UConn is stuck in the sucky AAC and yet UConn has the stronger schedule up to this point.

I have no problem with Baylor being the top seed but don't try and tell anyone that their OOC was tough. ASU & S car are nice teams but not top 10. But I can understand your thinking it after some of the lame OOC sched. Mulkey has come up with lately.

@Arizona State, @South Carolina, @Stanford, and UConn is a difficult non-conference schedule. South Dakota State isn't a total cupcake either. How many contenders played tougher?

 

[DallasBUFan]

You are arguing right now, at this point, and at this point Baylor, playing in the supposedly tough B12 while UConn is stuck in the sucky AAC and yet UConn has the stronger schedule up to this point.

I have no problem with Baylor being the top seed but don't try and tell anyone that their OOC was tough. ASU & S car are nice teams but not top 10. But I can understand your thinking it after some of the lame OOC sched. Mulkey has come up with lately.

Also, if UConn didn't play a super tough OOC then y'all would really be in for it. The rest of the teams don't have to load up their OOC since they typically play several top 50 and 25 teams weekly. If you want to criticize Baylor go look at Oregon, Miss State, Louisville's OOC. They are pretty equivalent.

Didn't you just brag about SC possibly becoming a top 10 team and using that as one of UConn's top 10 wins? Now you are trying to discount them when talking about Baylor playing them....

 

[Plebe]

And here's the long-awaited article:

Notre Dame moves up S-curve, but is it Albany or Greensboro?

For the second consecutive day and for the third time in five days, a projected No. 1 seed in women's college basketball lost. If parity was knocking at the door two weeks ago, she has officially entered the party and is helping herself to the buffet. This is the most balanced the sport has been at the very top in 15 years.​

​

Losses from Louisville on Sunday and Oregon on Monday didn't shake up the 1-line in the updated bracketology through Monday's games. Their résumés are both solid enough to withstand a loss. However, the margin of error the rest of the way for both teams closed dramatically.​

Creme also talks about Tennessee's boost from the Missouri win, and the bubble picture.

 

[LoTrader]

Tennessee sure gets a lot of print for being a 9 seed.

 

[Plebe]

Tennessee sure gets a lot of print for being a 9 seed.

LOL I'm hoping the publicity will ensure another extension for Holly.

 

[triaddukefan]

And here's the long-awaited article:

Notre Dame moves up S-curve, but is it Albany or Greensboro?

For the second consecutive day and for the third time in five days, a projected No. 1 seed in women's college basketball lost. If parity was knocking at the door two weeks ago, she has officially entered the party and is helping herself to the buffet. This is the most balanced the sport has been at the very top in 15 years.​

​

Losses from Louisville on Sunday and Oregon on Monday didn't shake up the 1-line in the updated bracketology through Monday's games. Their résumés are both solid enough to withstand a loss. However, the margin of error the rest of the way for both teams closed dramatically.​

Creme also talks about Tennessee's boost from the Missouri win, and the bubble picture.

Hopefully the Irish land in Albany. Ill see them in a few weeks in Greensboro.... dont care to see them again in late March. Plus.... if the ND lands in Albany... that will make 2 fanbases upset.... and since I dont have a dog in the fight..... its fun to watch other fanbases upset

 

[mbr33ct]

And here's the long-awaited article:

Notre Dame moves up S-curve, but is it Albany or Greensboro?

For the second consecutive day and for the third time in five days, a projected No. 1 seed in women's college basketball lost. If parity was knocking at the door two weeks ago, she has officially entered the party and is helping herself to the buffet. This is the most balanced the sport has been at the very top in 15 years.​

​

Losses from Louisville on Sunday and Oregon on Monday didn't shake up the 1-line in the updated bracketology through Monday's games. Their résumés are both solid enough to withstand a loss. However, the margin of error the rest of the way for both teams closed dramatically.​

Creme also talks about Tennessee's boost from the Missouri win, and the bubble picture.

There's plenty of basketball to be played yet. When dust settles ND will be a true #1 seed.

Charlie mentioned "Tennessee continues to be the most discussed team in the country that's not in the mix for a No. 1 seed." Note to Charlie, stop going to VolNation.

 

[Plebe]

Hopefully the Irish land in Albany. Ill see them in a few weeks in Greensboro.... dont care to see them again in late March. Plus.... if the ND lands in Albany... that will make 2 fanbases upset.... and since I dont have a dog in the fight..... its fun to watch other fanbases upset

I suppose when you're a Duke fan, the phrase "misery loves company" rules the day.

 

[triaddukefan]

I suppose when you're a Duke fan, the phrase "misery loves company" rules the day.

Well Duke Football, Men's Basketball, and Baseball bring me joy