Bracketology

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#1
Bracketology with Charlie Creme

I think if the tournament selection was today, the Lady Vols would still make the tournament. Too much history on their side. If they beat Auburn and Texas A&M, they'll be in the tournament as long as their only loss in their remaining games is to So Carolina.
 
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#2
Bracketology with Charlie Creme

I think if the tournament selection was today, the Lady Vols would still make the tournament. Too much history on their side. If they beat Auburn and Texas A&M, they'll be in the tournament as long as their only loss in their remaining games is to So Carolina.
Toughest bracket in my opinion would be Albany, UConn could face South Dakota, Miami and Mississippi State just to get out of the regional.
 
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#3
Toughest bracket in my opinion would be Albany, UConn could face South Dakota, Miami and Mississippi State just to get out of the regional.
They could also face Oregon State. Oregon State has not been kind to brackets over the past 4 years. Not suggesting that OSU will accomplish the same this year, but I do know that OSU will not be an easy out.
 
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#4
MSST is a 1 seed at Albany according to the 1st reveal, good news, no way because UConn is the 2 seed. Nightmare for MSST!
 

bballnut90

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#7
MSST is a 1 seed at Albany according to the 1st reveal, good news, no way because UConn is the 2 seed. Nightmare for MSST!
Someone has to go there and theres no way MSU moves ahead of Louisville/Baylor/Oregon with their best wins being SC and Marquette. MSU is going to be a very difficult matchup for UCONN due to their size and rebounding ability, but beating UCONN in Albany will not be easy. I love Vic, but scheduling a dreadful nonconference slate may end up being costly.

Ironically, if MSU loses once or twice to SC, itll likely move them out of Albany and they may get a more favorable matchup vs Louisville.
 
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#9
Someone has to go there and theres no way MSU moves ahead of Louisville/Baylor/Oregon with their best wins being SC and Marquette. MSU is going to be a very difficult matchup for UCONN due to their size and rebounding ability, but beating UCONN in Albany will not be easy. I love Vic, but scheduling a dreadful nonconference slate may end up being costly.

Ironically, if MSU loses once or twice to SC, itll likely move them out of Albany and they may get a more favorable matchup vs Louisville.
I would rather lose to UConn than SC.
 
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#14
Then y'all need to tank games, ironically like NBA teams do to get the better lottery picks in the draft.
I never want MSST to lose. However, I would not mind at all if ND replaced us as a number 1 seed. If UConn and MSST are both number 2 seeds we will not have to play UConn in Albany, we likely would play either ND or Louisville in Chicago.
 

oldude

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#15
There are 6 top tier teams: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, UConn, MS St & ND. As of right now, 4 of those teams could be matched up in 2 regionals. Unless there are major upsets, those two games will be huge. Two of the 6 teams will end up playing 2nd tier opponents to get to the FF. They will have an easier road. Of course upsets happen, but for the past several years, UConn has had the easier road to the FF. This year, as it stands right now, the Huskies are going to have to beat a really good team to get to the FF.
 

UConnNick

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#18
There are 6 top tier teams: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, UConn, MS St & ND. As of right now, 4 of those teams could be matched up in 2 regionals. Unless there are major upsets, those two games will be huge. Two of the 6 teams will end up playing 2nd tier opponents to get to the FF. They will have an easier road. Of course upsets happen, but for the past several years, UConn has had the easier road to the FF. This year, as it stands right now, the Huskies are going to have to beat a really good team to get to the FF.
Unlike past seasons, this year's top eight teams won't be all that much different from each other. Geno always says winning the Elite 8 game is the toughest one to win. When you go in as the No. 1 No. 1 seed you supposedly get the easiest path, but it doesn't always work out that way. What teams look like on paper to the committee doesn't always jive with how a team has actually been playing late in the regular season. There are also teams that might produce a bad matchup problem for the higher seeded team. This year the No. 1 No. 1 seed may get a pretty tough opponent in the Elite 8 round.

Despite the quality of some Elite 8 opponents we've faced during our present incredible run of consecutive Final Fours, Geno seems to figure out a way to win that game, and most years fairly comfortably. Sooner or later he's going to lose one, but I don't think this is going to be that year, regardless if we're a fourth No. 1 seed, or if Antonelli gets her wish and we drop to a 2 seed.
 
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#19
Bracketology with Charlie Creme

I think if the tournament selection was today, the Lady Vols would still make the tournament. Too much history on their side. If they beat Auburn and Texas A&M, they'll be in the tournament as long as their only loss in their remaining games is to So Carolina.
I don't think a power 5 team ever made the tournament as an at large with a RPI in the 60s. If so it is very rare.
 
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#20
I don't think a power 5 team ever made the tournament as an at large with a RPI in the 60s. If so it is very rare.
I'm not sure about the women's side, but it's happened multiple times in the men's tournament over the years. I believe the lowest RPI to get an at-large bid on the men's side is #67 (USC in 2011).

The Cal women got into the tournament a couple years ago with an RPI on the lower 50s (~57).

Tennessee's RPI is currently #60 and is more likely than not to rise as its SOS improves between now and the end of the SEC tournament.
 

bballnut90

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#21
Unlike past seasons, this year's top eight teams won't be all that much different from each other. Geno always says winning the Elite 8 game is the toughest one to win. When you go in as the No. 1 No. 1 seed you supposedly get the easiest path, but it doesn't always work out that way. What teams look like on paper to the committee doesn't always jive with how a team has actually been playing late in the regular season. There are also teams that might produce a bad matchup problem for the higher seeded team. This year the No. 1 No. 1 seed may get a pretty tough opponent in the Elite 8 round.

Despite the quality of some Elite 8 opponents we've faced during our present incredible run of consecutive Final Fours, Geno seems to figure out a way to win that game, and most years fairly comfortably. Sooner or later he's going to lose one, but I don't think this is going to be that year, regardless if we're a fourth No. 1 seed, or if Antonelli gets her wish and we drop to a 2 seed.

UCONN hasnt had a difficult Elite 8 matchup since Rutgers in 2008. The last 10 years have been almost guaranteed wins for the Huskies, and they've earned those favorable matchups. I think they've had home crowds all 10 years as well aside from 2010 and 2014. This year wont be as easy but theyll have a home crowd.

Geno is 19-5 in Elite 8 games (11 straight) compared to just 11-8 in the Final Four. Something tells me the F4 round is definitely the toughest for Geno and crew.
 

UConnNick

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#22
UCONN hasnt had a difficult Elite 8 matchup since Rutgers in 2008. The last 10 years have been almost guaranteed wins for the Huskies, and they've earned those favorable matchups. I think they've had home crowds all 10 years as well aside from 2010 and 2014. This year wont be as easy but theyll have a home crowd.

Geno is 19-5 in Elite 8 games (11 straight) compared to just 11-8 in the Final Four. Something tells me the F4 round is definitely the toughest for Geno and crew.
I think your math is off. Geno had to win 11 semifinal games in the FF to win 11 title games, so he's 22-8 in FF games.

He said the E8 game is the toughest to win, in his opinion. Comparing 19-5 to 22-8 notwithstanding, I choose to rely upon what he says about it, since he coaches the team that has done it all.

The far more amazing stat is he's 11-for-11 in championship games. No other coach is ever likely to break that particular record. The UCONN men are also 4-0 in title games, so the school is 15-0 in NCAA BB title games, more combined national BB titles than any other school in the country in NCAA D-I.
 

bballnut90

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#23
I think your math is off. Geno had to win 11 semifinal games in the FF to win 11 title games, so he's 22-8 in FF games.

He said the E8 game is the toughest to win, in his opinion. Comparing 19-5 to 22-8 notwithstanding, I choose to rely upon what he says about it, since he coaches the team that has done it all.

The far more amazing stat is he's 11-for-11 in championship games. No other coach is ever likely to break that particular record. The UCONN men are also 4-0 in title games, so the school is 15-0 in NCAA BB title games, more combined national BB titles than any other school in the country in NCAA D-I.
The math is right, Final Four games are different than championship games. 11-8 in the Final Four round indicates a tougher go than 19-5 in Elite 8 games.

The 11-0 record is very impressive, no question there. It is worth noting that UCONN has always been a heavy favorite entering the title game. The only years where there was a strong chance of them losing was 1995, 2003, and 2004. This year if they make the title game, they likely will not be the strong favorite for the first time. That said, I do agree that I don't think that anyone else will come close to going 11-0 in title games during my lifetime.
 

UConnNick

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#24
The math is right, Final Four games are different than championship games. 11-8 in the Final Four round indicates a tougher go than 19-5 in Elite 8 games.

The 11-0 record is very impressive, no question there. It is worth noting that UCONN has always been a heavy favorite entering the title game. The only years where there was a strong chance of them losing was 1995, 2003, and 2004. This year if they make the title game, they likely will not be the strong favorite for the first time. That said, I do agree that I don't think that anyone else will come close to going 11-0 in title games during my lifetime.
"...Final Four games are different than championship games."

Huh?

The national semifinals and championship games are ALL FF games, and they all count as your overall FF record. 22-8 is UCONN's overall FF record.

You're cherry picking only FF championship wins to compare against the E8. Your whole argument is nuts because national semifinal games are generally against better competition than losing E8 teams because both teams had to survive the E8 to get there, so they count just as much. You count both the wins and losses from the semis along with the title games to compute any teams' overall FF record. 19-5 vs 22-8 are the correct numbers.

Again, if you want to cherry pick his 11-8 record in the FF semis, go ahead. He is acknowledging that just getting into the FF is a tremendous accomplishment for any team.

When you've won over a thousand NCAA D-I games like Geno has, his opinion counts for a lot. He thinks the E8 games are the toughest. It's hard to argue in his case, since he's lost five E8 games and zero championship games.
 

bballnut90

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#25
"...Final Four games are different than championship games."

Huh?

The national semifinals and championship games are ALL FF games, and they all count as your overall FF record. 22-8 is UCONN's overall FF record.

You're cherry picking only FF championship wins to compare against the E8. Your whole argument is nuts because national semifinal games are generally against better competition than losing E8 teams because both teams had to survive the E8 to get there, so they count just as much. You count both the wins and losses from the semis along with the title games to compute any teams' overall FF record. 19-5 vs 22-8 are the correct numbers.

Again, if you want to cherry pick his 11-8 record in the FF semis, go ahead. He is acknowledging that just getting into the FF is a tremendous accomplishment for any team.

When you've won over a thousand NCAA D-I games like Geno has, his opinion counts for a lot. He thinks the E8 games are the toughest. It's hard to argue in his case, since he's lost five E8 games and zero championship games.

Alright I'll try this again....I think we must have a different definition of "Final Four" games in the context of this thread when you're considering Final Four games as the national semis and the championship round. In my definition, Final Four is synonymous with national semifinal games....the games that are played with 4 teams left, hence the name, "Final Four."

You're stating that Geno claims E8 games are the toughest. I'm just saying statistically it isn't the toughest round for UCONN, but that the toughest round has consistently been in the Final Four/National Semis (which again are the same thing).

If you look at results by round from Elite 8 to the title game, you have:
Elite 8: 19-5 (79.2% win rate)
National Semifinals: 11-8 (57.9% win rate)
National Championship: 11-0 (100% win rate)

Clearly the National Semifinals have been the most difficult round for UCONN, as they've only won 57.9% of the time while they've fared much better in the Elite 8 and Championship rounds.
 
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