Bracketology

[Plebe]

Well Duke Football, Men's Basketball, and Baseball bring me joy

McCallie is counting on the fact that Duke fans are happy with other sports

 

[mbr33ct]

McCallie is counting on the fact that Duke fans are happy with other sports

It all ended for Duke when JPM ended the series with UConn...or when the old Big East arrived in the ACC.

 

[triaddukefan]

Lets get this thread back on topic.....

I see Arizona State as a 5 seed in the Greensboro Region. Man... if those Sun Devils make it here AGAIN

 

[Plebe]

View attachment 39873 View attachment 39873 View attachment 39873 View attachment 39873 View attachment 39873 Lets get this thread back on topic.....

I see Arizona State as a 5 seed in the Greensboro Region. Man... if those Sun Devils make it here AGAIN

Do you mean to suggest that you wouldn't be happy to play host to the lovely Sun Devils?

 

[IWearShoes]

If ND wins the ACC and SC wins the SEC, both of which are strong possibilities, then UConn will have 2 very strong wins on their resume

I'm going to respectfully disagree here.

MSU's only remaining test in the regular season is @SC, while SC has a tough final four games with UK, @UT, @Auburn and Miss St.

Massey has SC at 6% to finish 4-0, while Miss St is 75% to do so.

 

[oldude]

I'm going to respectfully disagree here.

MSU's only remaining test in the regular season is @SC, while SC has a tough final four games with UK, @UT, @Auburn and Miss St.

Massey has SC at 6% to finish 4-0, while Miss St is 75% to do so.

We’ll see how it goes, but SC is clearly playing their best b-ball right now, and MS St is vulnerable. Beyond the regular season, SC has a very good chance to win the conference tournament.

 

[triaddukefan]

Do you mean to suggest that you wouldn't be happy to play host to the lovely Sun Devils?

Ive seen em here in 2007.... ive seen them in 2015. Thats enough for my lifetime

 

[Plebe]

Ha well when you're a perennial tournament team rather than a has-been, you tend to get around with a certain frequency...

 

[triaddukefan]

keep it up

 

[IWearShoes]

We’ll see how it goes, but SC is clearly playing their best b-ball right now, and MS St is vulnerable. Beyond the regular season, SC has a very good chance to win the conference tournament.

Miss State is vulnerable to what? SC has a much tougher road to an SEC title and has not proven themselves to be better than MSU to this point.

They are definitely playing better ball than early in the year.

 

[SCspur]

Miss State is vulnerable to what? SC has a much tougher road to an SEC title and has not proven themselves to be better than MSU to this point.

They are definitely playing better ball than early in the year.

I don’t see SC losing to UK, UT, or Auburn and the pressure will definitely be on Miss St if both go into the game 14-1. SC hasn’t proven to be better but Henderson, Saxton, and Perry has been stepping up for us and that could be something to watch for considering none played in the first matchup. It’s going to be interesting that’s for sure.

 

[oldude]

Miss State is vulnerable to what? SC has a much tougher road to an SEC title and has not proven themselves to be better than MSU to this point.

They are definitely playing better ball than early in the year.

MS St lost at home to unranked Mizzou when the Tigers packed their defense inside to neutralize McGowan, exposing the fact that this Bulldog team can not knock down outside shots like last year’s team that included 3 outstanding outside shooters. Chloe Bibby was the Bulldogs best outside shooter until her season ending injury. That leaves AEH as the Bulldogs principle weapon from the arc, and she runs hot and cold.

At present MS St & SC are tied atop the SEC standings at 11-1. While I agree that SC has the tougher schedule, the way the Gamecocks are playing now with their new offense which spreads the floor, runs at every opportunity and has multiple shooters who can knock down 3-pt shots, leads me to believe that they can run the table, including beating MS St at home in Columbia to end the regular season on March 3.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I'm going to respectfully disagree here.

MSU's only remaining test in the regular season is @SC, while SC has a tough final four games with UK, @UT, @Auburn and Miss St.

Massey has SC at 6% to finish 4-0, while Miss St is 75% to do so.

People love Massey around here for some reason.

Miss State is the big favorite in head to head matchup with South Carolina so that helps quite a bit in their probabilities.

@UT is usually tricky for us.

 

[Fightin Choke]

People love Massey around here for some reason..

Maybe because it's excellent at predicting final scores and as a computer rating system, it is immune to personal biases that cloud one's objectivity. Of course it's not always right, but no predictive system is. One problem is just the stochastic nature of any human endeavor. Players can have off nights, coaches can be out-couched (particularly if they did a poor job scouting), but generally coaching ability shows up in the results so it is accounted for. If a team pulls its starters or even pulls back its starters, that could make the final score not indicative of the actual beat-down that occurred. And of course Massey's program cannot see injuries either, or suspensions of key players. Given all that, it is amazing that Massey's program does such a great job at predicting winners and the final scores of games. Maybe South Carolina is undervalued by Massey because of the trials they had adjusting to their new system. If that's so, then they should continue climbing up the ratings. But right now Massey has Miss St. winning 81-72 (80% chance of victory).

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

This isn't true at all. He was very outspoken after the reveal last Monday in his view that the regions were too unbalanced. And that's just the latest example.

That's how I remember it too... during the broadcast of the Reveal, he was very critical of the unbalanced regions...and he even wrote his ESPN-W column on the very issue for the next day. If My Memory Serves Correctly...

 

[Alydar]

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Also, if UConn didn't play a super tough OOC then y'all would really be in for it. The rest of the teams don't have to load up their OOC since they typically play several top 50 and 25 teams weekly. If you want to criticize Baylor go look at Oregon, Miss State, Louisville's OOC. They are pretty equivalent.

Didn't you just brag about SC possibly becoming a top 10 team and using that as one of UConn's top 10 wins? Now you are trying to discount them when talking about Baylor playing them....

But UConn DOES play a tough OOC schedule so what's your point. Sure, they depend on OOC games to boost their RPI & SOS. Is there some extra magic in playing a ranked conference team?

Baylor has had exactly 6 games against ranked teams. They have played 24 games. When 75% of your games are lopsided matchups you have no right to claim a tough schedule. Neither does UConn. But UConn is the only team in which that is pointed out.

 

[Alydar]

This isn't true at all. He was very outspoken after the reveal last Monday in his view that the regions were too unbalanced. And that's just the latest example.

I'm not talking about these prelim. lists. IMO they are just the NCAA floating trial balloons.

 

[wallman]

I cannot see ND being put anywhere else other than the Chicago region. Money wins out in this one.

 

[Bear11]

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But UConn DOES play a tough OOC schedule so what's your point. Sure, they depend on OOC games to boost their RPI & SOS. Is there some extra magic in playing a ranked conference team?

Baylor has had exactly 6 games against ranked teams. They have played 24 games. When 75% of your games are lopsided matchups you have no right to claim a tough schedule. Neither does UConn. But UConn is the only team in which that is pointed out.

If your definition of a tough schedule is to play more than a quarter of your schedule against ranked teams, then Notre Dame is the only team in the country to play a difficult schedule. Strength of schedule is relative. I think most everyone would agree that playing a schedule ranked in the top 10 in the country should be considered tough.

 

[Alydar]

Creme also talks about Tennessee's boost from the Missouri win, and the bubble picture.

Tennessee sure gets a lot of print for being a 9 seed.

LOL. Yeah Charlie. But it's you and the rest of the shills at ESPN that are doing most of the talking. Tenn is the only team to which Charlie would give a boost based on a win over a non-ranked team. And then he goes to say in essence that an 11 loss Tenn team belongs in the field. Now I'm all for fairness but if I have to choose between Tenn and some team with zero McDAA's, (or any kind of HSAA) I'll pick the team that has done more with less. Even if their RPI/SOS was a bit worse. If this was a car race Tenn would be one of the fastest cars on the track that nevertheless finishes every race in the bottom half of the field.

I look at Tenn and it's like taking a prime rib roast and boiling it for 5 hours. A waste.

 

[Bear11]

I cannot see ND being put anywhere else other than the Chicago region. Money wins out in this one.

In general I agree with this thought. However, if Notre Dame wins out but loses the ACC championship to Louisville, then the committee would be in a pickle. The only way to keep them in Chicago as a 2 seed would be to pair them with Baylor. If Baylor is still in the top 2 at that point, that would break the S-curve pretty badly. I know the NCAA has different priorities than pure bracket integrity, but it would be pretty bad to assign the overall number one one of the tougher 2 seeds, especially when there is a massive dropoff in quality between the top 6 and the next few teams. That being said, I have little confidence in the NCAA to do the right thing, should that scenario come about. Notre Dame should just win the ACC to keep things simple. Then we could get a nice fun rematch with Mississippi State.

 

[Alydar]

If your definition of a tough schedule is to play more than a quarter of your schedule against ranked teams, then Notre Dame is the only team in the country to play a difficult schedule. Strength of schedule is relative. I think most everyone would agree that playing a schedule ranked in the top 10 in the country should be considered tough.

You get my point, sort of. The dropoff from No 1 to No 20 is huge in wcbb. That's why I've been saying for years that there are no tough conferences in wcbb except in a relative sense. (And I don't see ND's sched as particularly tough). There simply aren't enough teams with sufficient talent after No 20 to compete.

Posters can point to top 50 wins as a positive. I reduce that to top 15 wins. The No 1 team should wipe the floor with any team ranked worse than that.

 

[Alydar]

It all ended for Duke when JPM ended the series with UConn...or when the old Big East arrived in the ACC.

Who has made the FF from the ACC in recent years? N Dame, Louisville, Syracuse. The Big East still rules.

 

[IWearShoes]

MS St lost at home to unranked Mizzou when the Tigers packed their defense inside to neutralize McGowan, exposing the fact that this Bulldog team can not knock down outside shots like last year’s team that included 3 outstanding outside shooters. Chloe Bibby was the Bulldogs best outside shooter until her season ending injury. That leaves AEH as the Bulldogs principle weapon from the arc, and she runs hot and cold.

At present MS St & SC are tied atop the SEC standings at 11-1. While I agree that SC has the tougher schedule, the way the Gamecocks are playing now with their new offense which spreads the floor, runs at every opportunity and has multiple shooters who can knock down 3-pt shots, leads me to believe that they can run the table, including beating MS St at home in Columbia to end the regular season on March 3.

Interesting take. I'm going to assume you're going off your perception rather than analysis. Miss St is 2nd in the SEC in 3 pt shooting and 1st in overall field goal % by a wide margin, even after a terrible shooting display vs Mizzou.

That shooting and a very poor defensive effort cost them the game. That was not typical of the season at all. Picking a team's worst games and ignoring the others does not an analysis make. That's part of why I lean on Massey when I'm unfamiliar with a team. It handles way more data points than I can.

Also, this MSU team has two guards who are much more adept at creating layups and mid range jumpers than last year's team. It's a different team, with different strengths and weaknesses.

My issue with your original statement was the idea that SC had a strong chance to win the SEC. They have a chance. An unbiased observer would not call it stong.

 

[SimpleDawg]

It feels good knowing that we have only one real threat left in the regular season. That way as a fan I could rest easy sitting there watching possible upsets that can occur in the land of Eugene, Louisville, and South Bend.

I think the main thing we need to do is not overplay our Thursday game vs LSU at home right before. It'll be a home crowd, and everyone will come out celebrating our tremendous season. We're expected to win, but I think we need to play it like we have a game right after in Columbia. Knowing that that is a dangerous game, and not try to put all our efforts into beating an LSU team we won the first time with minimal effort.

That means we should give McCowan only half minutes. Get Jessica Carter in, she played as well as we could hope against A&M. Myah Taylor also looked good against A&M, and she can take some pressure off of Holmes. I don't think you lose THAT much from Holmes to Taylor. At worst, I'll use LSU as a clinic for 3-point shooting. Let's see how good of a shooter Espinoza really is. Bre'Amber Scott and Xaria Wiggins should rotate and we'll see who has the hot hand that night.

Nervous at Columbia though, definitely. Win or lose, I certainly wouldn't count on Mississippi State losing that game because of the belief that it could help UConn. If anything, SC is more vulnerable. They have a much tougher road before that last game, and they had a bunch of close calls in SEC play and weren't dazzling beating teams we thrashed, and certainly could lose before even facing us at Columbia. No disrespect to SC of course, but I do that think on a regular day when both teams are playing up to their respective ceilings, Mississippi State is overall better.


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