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Bracketology

There will likely be quite a few additional losses within the top 16 teams. At this point, only Baylor and UConn have a relatively straightforward path to run the table through their respective conference tournaments.

Oregon has a big game on the road tonight vs OSU and the Pac12 conference tournament is no picnic. Either Louisville or ND will have to lose at least one more time in their conference tournament, if not beforehand.

MS St has demonstrated some vulnerability, and they still have a tough battle with a surging SC team on the road in Columbia. Every other top 16 team will likely face one or more tough games.

At this point in the season, I start to look at teams that are trending upward, essentially playing their best basketball of the year. Baylor & Oregon appear to be very solid. SC & Miami are also playing extremely well, along with one other team that has played its best basketball of the season over the last 4 games. That last team is coached by a short Italian guy who invariably has his team firing on all cylinders when the calendar turns to March.
 
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eebmg said:
By the thinnest of Margins, Creme has Louisville and UConn on the top line with ND in the hunt. The implication is a strong ND win over #12 NC State on the road may push UConn to #2(due to comparitively weak schedule)

Louisville remains a No. 1 seed despite loss to Miami
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Either way one will lose in the ACC tourney so I'd say UCONN is pretty much guaranteed the 1 seed.
 
mbr33ct said:
Just waiting for the critics when that happens..."it's because UConn plays in the AAC".
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Ok, I'll bite, what critics? Let's look at the 6 teams really in discussion for an #1
Baylor-is a lock to get it as only Iowa St and Texas are somewhat talented but neither poses a real threat. I think even if they lose, they will still be a #1.
Oregon-They are probably playing the best of all the teams at the moment and also have the hardest road of the top 6. If they lose, I suspect they keep a #1 but if they fall to a #2 they will still get sent to Portland-no one will complain.
Louisville-As currently sits, they are the #3 seed in the ACC Tournament (kind of crazy but true) so they would have to beat ND in the Semi's and than either Miami, NC State or Syracuse in a Final. They win out, they head to Chicago as #1. They lose, they are a #2, probably in Greensboro
UConn-easiest path of the 6. Headed to Albany as #1.
ND-See Louisville scenario above. IF they lose, they have 4 losses including a loss to UConn so no one will be complaining. If any noise starts to surface, someone mumbles "North Carolina Cheat" nuf ced.
MSU-The only thing standing in their way to an SEC championship is SC. They are most likely a #2 but if something crazy happens to Oregon or Baylor, the could get a #1 and Greensboro, not likely and not much to complain about considering the loss to Mizzou who just lost at home to Tenn.

So, what Critics have a logical complaint about UConn as a #1?
 
DefenseBB, good post. I think the bigger questions are the next 12 seeds, especially seeds 13-16. And then, what regional do seeds 7-16 get placed. The questions surrounding which teams are #1 vs #2 seeds is somewhat uninteresting as you pointed out. If Oregon is #2 seed, they still play in Portland. If UCONN is #2 seed, they still play in Albany. Same for ND & Louisville with respect to the closest regional location.
 
DefenseBB said:
Ok, I'll bite, what critics? Let's look at the 6 teams really in discussion for an #1
Baylor-is a lock to get it as only Iowa St and Texas are somewhat talented but neither poses a real threat. I think even if they lose, they will still be a #1.
Oregon-They are probably playing the best of all the teams at the moment and also have the hardest road of the top 6. If they lose, I suspect they keep a #1 but if they fall to a #2 they will still get sent to Portland-no one will complain.
Louisville-As currently sits, they are the #3 seed in the ACC Tournament (kind of crazy but true) so they would have to beat ND in the Semi's and than either Miami, NC State or Syracuse in a Final. They win out, they head to Chicago as #1. They lose, they are a #2, probably in Greensboro
UConn-easiest path of the 6. Headed to Albany as #1.
ND-See Louisville scenario above. IF they lose, they have 4 losses including a loss to UConn so no one will be complaining. If any noise starts to surface, someone mumbles "North Carolina Cheat" nuf ced.
MSU-The only thing standing in their way to an SEC championship is SC. They are most likely a #2 but if something crazy happens to Oregon or Baylor, the could get a #1 and Greensboro, not likely and not much to complain about considering the loss to Mizzou who just lost at home to Tenn.

So, what Critics have a logical complaint about UConn as a #1?
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The short answer, fans of other schools...no more or less. Isn't that the war cry some say regarding UConn plays in the AAC...and let me add some of these fans/critics are actually UConn fans.
 
eebmg said:
By the thinnest of Margins, Creme has Louisville and UConn on the top line with ND in the hunt. The implication is a strong ND win over #12 NC State on the road may push UConn to #2(due to comparitively weak schedule)

Louisville remains a No. 1 seed despite loss to Miami
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There’s no way at this point ND jumps UConn. They have more losses & loss the head to head. UConn fans want ND to winout at this point because it helps boost our strength of schedule. No chance UConn falls to the #2 line, unless they somehow drop a game.
 
One additional point to be made when it comes to seeding and who goes where. WBB, as much as any other sport, is characterized by layers. SOS is nice, but games vs the very top layer should carry much more weight in WBB imo.

At this point in time the very top layer of WBB includes 6 teams: Baylor, Oregon, Louisville, MS St, ND & UConn. Of those teams, UConn is the only team to play 3 other top teams on their home court, let alone beat one.

There will be a lot of talk about who goes where for the Big Dance. But you can be sure that the last thing that Kim, Kelly, Jeff, Vic or MM want is to end up in Albany as either the #1 or #2 seed.
 
oldude said:
One additional point to be made when it comes to seeding and who goes where. WBB, as much as any other sport, is characterized by layers. SOS is nice, but games vs the very top layer should carry much more weight in WBB imo.

At this point in time the very top layer of WBB includes 6 teams: Baylor, Oregon, Louisville, MS St, ND & UConn. Of those teams, UConn is the only team to play 3 other top teams on their home court, let alone beat one.

There will be a lot of talk about who goes where for the Big Dance. But you can be sure that the last thing that Kim, Kelly, Jeff, Vic or MM want is to end up in Albany as either the #1 or #2 seed.
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Completely agree! Everyone knows there is a huge drop off after team 6 or 7.
 
bbballfan23 said:
There’s no way at this point ND jumps UConn. They have more losses & loss the head to head. UConn fans want ND to winout at this point because it helps boost our strength of schedule. No chance UConn falls to the #2 line, unless they somehow drop a game.
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If ND wins out.. I think they would jump UConn. Wins at state.. Syracuse.. Vs Miami and Louisville, that would do it .
 
triaddukefan said:
If ND wins out.. I think they would jump UConn. Wins at state.. Syracuse.. Vs Miami and Louisville, that would do it .
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Not sure if I agree, although the Irish will get a really big boost if they somehow manage to beat the Blue Devils in South Bend on Thursday. :rolleyes:
 
bbballfan23 said:
There’s no way at this point ND jumps UConn. They have more losses & loss the head to head. UConn fans want ND to winout at this point because it helps boost our strength of schedule. No chance UConn falls to the #2 line, unless they somehow drop a game.
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This just isn't true at all. Notre Dame could definitely overtake UConn. If they win out the committee will likely consider ND's overall resume to be stronger. UConn has the wins over ND and SC but very little else. ND already has wins over Louisville, Iowa, Oregon State and Marquette, and if they win out they'll have wins over NC State, Syracuse and then likely additional wins over Louisville and another high quality team.
 
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Plebe said:
This just isn't true at all. Notre Dame could definitely overtake UConn. If they win out the committee will likely consider ND's overall resume to be stronger. UConn has the wins over ND and SC but very little else. ND already has wins over Louisville, Iowa, Oregon State and Marquette, and if they win out they'll have wins over NC State, Syracuse and then likely additional wins over Louisville and another high quality team.
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That’s great but you know they also take LOSSES into account? North Carolina is a bad bad loss.
 
Didn't Notre Dame get a 1 seed last year over other teams with less losses because of SOS and having more top 50 and top 25 wins? They had like 3-4 losses.
 
DallasBUFan said:
Didn't Notre Dame get a 1 seed last year over other teams with less losses because of SOS and having more top 50 and top 25 wins? They had like 3-4 losses.
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They had 3 losses (2 to Louisville, 1 to UConn).
The only lower seed that had fewer losses was Baylor with 1 loss, a #2 seed.
 
DefenseBB said:
Ok, I'll bite, what critics? Let's look at the 6 teams really in discussion for an #1
Baylor-is a lock to get it as only Iowa St and Texas are somewhat talented but neither poses a real threat. I think even if they lose, they will still be a #1.
Oregon-They are probably playing the best of all the teams at the moment and also have the hardest road of the top 6. If they lose, I suspect they keep a #1 but if they fall to a #2 they will still get sent to Portland-no one will complain.
Louisville-As currently sits, they are the #3 seed in the ACC Tournament (kind of crazy but true) so they would have to beat ND in the Semi's and than either Miami, NC State or Syracuse in a Final. They win out, they head to Chicago as #1. They lose, they are a #2, probably in Greensboro
UConn-easiest path of the 6. Headed to Albany as #1.
ND-See Louisville scenario above. IF they lose, they have 4 losses including a loss to UConn so no one will be complaining. If any noise starts to surface, someone mumbles "North Carolina Cheat" nuf ced.
MSU-The only thing standing in their way to an SEC championship is SC. They are most likely a #2 but if something crazy happens to Oregon or Baylor, the could get a #1 and Greensboro, not likely and not much to complain about considering the loss to Mizzou who just lost at home to Tenn.

So, what Critics have a logical complaint about UConn as a #1?
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Antonelli? She won't have a logical complaint, but if she argues that UCONN doesn't deserve it, she'll manufacture an illogical one.
 
DefenseBB said:
Ok, I'll bite, what critics? Let's look at the 6 teams really in discussion for an #1
Baylor-is a lock to get it as only Iowa St and Texas are somewhat talented but neither poses a real threat. I think even if they lose, they will still be a #1.
Oregon-They are probably playing the best of all the teams at the moment and also have the hardest road of the top 6. If they lose, I suspect they keep a #1 but if they fall to a #2 they will still get sent to Portland-no one will complain.
Louisville-As currently sits, they are the #3 seed in the ACC Tournament (kind of crazy but true) so they would have to beat ND in the Semi's and than either Miami, NC State or Syracuse in a Final. They win out, they head to Chicago as #1. They lose, they are a #2, probably in Greensboro
UConn-easiest path of the 6. Headed to Albany as #1.
ND-See Louisville scenario above. IF they lose, they have 4 losses including a loss to UConn so no one will be complaining. If any noise starts to surface, someone mumbles "North Carolina Cheat" nuf ced.
MSU-The only thing standing in their way to an SEC championship is SC. They are most likely a #2 but if something crazy happens to Oregon or Baylor, the could get a #1 and Greensboro, not likely and not much to complain about considering the loss to Mizzou who just lost at home to Tenn.

So, what Critics have a logical complaint about UConn as a #1?
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Good analysis, I agree. Real question is which number 1 seeds get to face top number 2 seeds.
 
Creme has been releasing his bracketology updates on Mondays, but apparently not today.
I guess he's waiting until tomorrow, to reflect the impact of tonight's games.

If Oregon can sweep Oregon State, they may overtake Baylor as overall #1.
If Beaver State beats the Ducks, they could challenge for the last #2 seed.
The outcome of the ND-State game could similarly have an impact.
 
Plebe said:
Creme has been releasing his bracketology updates on Mondays, but apparently not today.
I guess he's waiting until tomorrow, to reflect the impact of tonight's games.

If Oregon can sweep Oregon State, they may overtake Baylor as overall #1.
If Beaver State beats the Ducks, they could challenge for the last #2 seed.
The outcome of the ND-State game could similarly have an impact.
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yeah, He got it wrong last week , had to tweet an update one day later.....I guess he does not want to make the same mistake too sonn.
 
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