Bracketology

[SCspur]

It feels good knowing that we have only one real threat left in the regular season. That way as a fan I could rest easy sitting there watching possible upsets that can occur in the land of Eugene, Louisville, and South Bend.

I think the main thing we need to do is not overplay our Thursday game vs LSU at home right before. It'll be a home crowd, and everyone will come out celebrating our tremendous season. We're expected to win, but I think we need to play it like we have a game right after in Columbia. Knowing that that is a dangerous game, and not try to put all our efforts into beating an LSU team we won the first time with minimal effort.

That means we should give McCowan only half minutes. Get Jessica Carter in, she played as well as we could hope against A&M. Myah Taylor also looked good against A&M, and she can take some pressure off of Holmes. I don't think you lose THAT much from Holmes to Taylor. At worst, I'll use LSU as a clinic for 3-point shooting. Let's see how good of a shooter Espinoza really is. Bre'Amber Scott and Xaria Wiggins should rotate and we'll see who has the hot hand that night.

Nervous at Columbia though, definitely. Win or lose, I certainly wouldn't count on Mississippi State losing that game because of the belief that it could help UConn. If anything, SC is more vulnerable. They have a much tougher road before that last game, and they had a bunch of close calls in SEC play and weren't dazzling beating teams we thrashed, and certainly could lose before even facing us at Columbia. No disrespect to SC of course, but I do that think on a regular day when both teams are playing up to their respective ceilings, Mississippi State is overall better.


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What close calls? The only team we struggled with was Georgia (St struggled as well) and that was after facing a tough UConn team on the road so that took a toll emotionally on the girls.

 

[SimpleDawg]

What close calls? The only team we struggled with was Georgia (St struggled as well) and that was after facing a tough UConn team on the road so that took a toll emotionally on the girls.

Well I see Alabama, Texas A&M, and Kentucky..... 3 or 4 point games. And vs Arkansas - South Carolina led a rally in the 4th, but it was still a close one down to the wire and they were trailing a good way.

I agree with Georgia... that was an emotional toll and I agree that we didn't play well against them either, but I think my point still stands despite Georgia.


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[oldude]

Interesting take. I'm going to assume you're going off your perception rather than analysis. Miss St is 2nd in the SEC in 3 pt shooting and 1st in overall field goal % by a wide margin, even after a terrible shooting display vs Mizzou.

That shooting and a very poor defensive effort cost them the game. That was not typical of the season at all. Picking a team's worst games and ignoring the others does not an analysis make. That's part of why I lean on Massey when I'm unfamiliar with a team. It handles way more data points than I can.

Also, this MSU team has two guards who are much more adept at creating layups and mid range jumpers than last year's team. It's a different team, with different strengths and weaknesses.

My issue with your original statement was the idea that SC had a strong chance to win the SEC. They have a chance. An unbiased observer would not call it stong.

There’s a lot of ways to assess MS St vs SC. Right now, I believe SC is the better team. Time will tell if I’m correct or not.

 

[SCspur]

Well, I see Alabama, Texas A&M, and Kentucky..... 3 or 4 point games. And vs Arkansas - South Carolina led a rally in the 4th, but it was still a close one down to the wire and they were trailing a good way.

I agree with Georgia... that was an emotional toll and I agree that we didn't play well against them either, but I think my point still stands despite Georgia.


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The A&M and Alabama game were to start SEC play and we were beginning to find out footing while the UK game could’ve won by 20 if we didn’t let up off the gas. We were up 51-31 in the 3rd quarter on them. The Arkansas game came right after we played UK and it was a wire to wire win we took over the 4th and never looked back. Idk if you’re just looking at the box scores or actually watching the game. Nonetheless SC is on a 7 game win streak in the SEC and if we win these next 3 games the pressure will definitely be on Miss St to beat us at home.

 

[SimpleDawg]

The Arkansas game came right after we played UK and it was a wire to wire win we took over the 4th and never looked back. Idk if you’re just looking at the box scores or actually watching the game.

I don't remember some of those early games, but I remember Kentucky looked like they had a chance, but it got away from them in the 2nd half. But even if I give you that one, I don't think you can say Arkansas wasn't a close call given it looked like they were gonna win most of the game.

The pressure is on SC equally as much (probably more) because they're gonna be coming off 3 games against 2 tough teams, one decent team, but all probably tougher than anyone else we have except SC.

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[SCspur]

I don't remember some of those early games, but I remember Kentucky looked like they had a chance, but it got away from them in the 2nd half. But even if I give you that one, I don't think you can say Arkansas wasn't a close call given it looked like they were gonna win most of the game.

The pressure is on SC equally as much (probably more) because they're gonna be coming off 3 games against 2 tough teams, one decent team, but all probably tougher than anyone else we have except SC.

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Don’t overlook the fact that the game will be at SC and Dawn is a coach that one’s Vic Schaefer all too well. Miss St fans has a right to feel confident but never underestimate SC.

 

[Vowelguy]

We'd be more likely to see these pairings, IMHO:

Greensboro: 1. Baylor 2. NC St 3. Oregon St 4. Gonzaga​

Portland: 1. Oregon 2. Miss St 3. Miami 4. Iowa St​

Chicago: 1. Louisville 2. Stanford 3. Iowa 4. SC​

Albany: 1. UConn 2. ND 3. Maryland 4. Marquette​

If Gonzaga is a 4, they are 99% to be in Portland IMHO.
In your example, Marq in GB, ISU in Chic, and SC in NY

NC: 1/8/9/14 = 32
OR: 2/6/12/16 = 36
IL: 3/7/10/15 = 35
NY: 4/5/11/13 = 33

or

NC: 1/8/11/13 = 33
OR: 2/6/12/16 = 36
IL: 3/7/10/14 = 34
NY: 4/5/9/15 = 33

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Maybe because it's excellent at predicting final scores and as a computer rating system, it is immune to personal biases that cloud one's objectivity. Of course it's not always right, but no predictive system is. One problem is just the stochastic nature of any human endeavor. Players can have off nights, coaches can be out-couched (particularly if they did a poor job scouting), but generally coaching ability shows up in the results so it is accounted for. If a team pulls its starters or even pulls back its starters, that could make the final score not indicative of the actual beat-down that occurred. And of course Massey's program cannot see injuries either, or suspensions of key players. Given all that, it is amazing that Massey's program does such a great job at predicting winners and the final scores of games. Maybe South Carolina is undervalued by Massey because of the trials they had adjusting to their new system. If that's so, then they should continue climbing up the ratings. But right now Massey has Miss St. winning 81-72 (80% chance of victory).

I have no objection to computer rankings.

Massey just isn't the most popular one usually.

I don't mind if the algo has Miss State as heavy favorite. I've got them as the favorite myself. It spits out the numbers and that's fine with me.

Was just pointing out that the major factor in its low projection of USC not running the table was the Miss State game, not the other games on the way there.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Maybe because it's excellent at predicting final scores and as a computer rating system, it is immune to personal biases that cloud one's objectivity. Of course it's not always right, but no predictive system is. One problem is just the stochastic nature of any human endeavor. Players can have off nights, coaches can be out-couched (particularly if they did a poor job scouting), but generally coaching ability shows up in the results so it is accounted for. If a team pulls its starters or even pulls back its starters, that could make the final score not indicative of the actual beat-down that occurred. And of course Massey's program cannot see injuries either, or suspensions of key players. Given all that, it is amazing that Massey's program does such a great job at predicting winners and the final scores of games. Maybe South Carolina is undervalued by Massey because of the trials they had adjusting to their new system. If that's so, then they should continue climbing up the ratings. But right now Massey has Miss St. winning 81-72 (80% chance of victory).

The drawback to the ratings is that they can't really consider injuries yes, but are also slow to adjust for team improvement.

I'm not sure I would argue with USC's Massey rating (though honestly, I don't know what it is), but if it is flawed it probably would be a result of in-season improvement.

I think USC is playing better than at the beginning of the season, but I'm also mindful that some of the pieces of that improvement didn't really show

Well I see Alabama, Texas A&M, and Kentucky..... 3 or 4 point games. And vs Arkansas - South Carolina led a rally in the 4th, but it was still a close one down to the wire and they were trailing a good way.

I agree with Georgia... that was an emotional toll and I agree that we didn't play well against them either, but I think my point still stands despite Georgia.


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TAMU and Bama were the first two games of the conference season, but we did indeed have a fight.

We didn't struggle with Kentucky particularly, just pulled the starters and let them make it look close at the end.

Sort of like the Missouri game the final score (+14) wasn't indicative of the true margin.

 

[Vowelguy]

Massey just isn't the most popular one usually.

Sagarin isn't doing WCBB this year (I believe), so what other computer rankings are there?

 

[Jmsdawg]

Don’t overlook the fact that the game will be at SC and Dawn is a coach that one’s Vic Schaefer all too well. Miss St fans has a right to feel confident but never underestimate SC.

I said early that the SC game at home was a huge challenge. We always have problems with SC and I do not believe we have ever beaten SC at their house. This game will be a challenge!

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Sagarin isn't doing WCBB this year (I believe), so what other computer rankings are there?

Didn't realize that, which shows you how much I follow the computer ratings in WBB, I guess.

Went back and looked at 538 old forecast and it was using Sagarin, LRMC (Joel Sokol), Sonny Gray and Massey for its composite.

Never really have gotten into computer ratings aside from the RPI which had the distinction of being relevant to selection criteria, despite it's flaws.

Not a big gambler. Seems like the women's game is a lot more straight forward than the men's in general. Lot less variation from expected results, it seemed to me.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

I said early that the SC game at home was a huge challenge. We always have problems with SC and I do not believe we have ever beaten SC at their house. This game will be a challenge!

Looks like the last time was in 2010. You've definitely won in Columbia before though.

 

[Vowelguy]

Never really have gotten into computer ratings aside from the RPI .

RPI is not a computer ranking, at least not how I think of it. RPI is a simple formula; it could actually be calculated by hand so long as there arent many teams. Computer rankings, as I think of them, have a calculation that they are trying to maximize (or minimize) and it requires a bunch of computation power to make very minute changes to each and every rating to see which one gets one closer to that max.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

RPI is not a computer ranking, at least not how I think of it. RPI is a simple formula; it could actually be calculated by hand so long as there arent many teams. Computer rankings, as I think of them, have a calculation that they are trying to maximize (or minimize) and it requires a bunch of computation power to make very minute changes to each and every rating to see which one gets one closer to that max.

I think that RPI is basically just (.25 WP) x (.5 OWP) x (.25 OOWP) with some minor adjustments.

Much simpler formula for sure.

I'm not clear on exactly what is involved in actually calculating the more complicated ones but I thought it was more or less plugging in results.

I know that the folks that come up with these things spend a lot of time jiggering with them trying to come up with methods of making them more predictive.

 

[MSUFan2003]

Don’t overlook the fact that the game will be at SC and Dawn is a coach that one’s Vic Schaefer all too well. Miss St fans has a right to feel confident but never underestimate SC.

I think it could go either way. One thing to consider is that Vic pulled the players out of a full court press and played a matchup zone. I bet that threw South Carolina off, but they'll prepare differently this time. I know Vic loves to press, but this team has struggled mightily with pressing good teams.

As far as the Mizzou game, I think we lost that mainly because we played a trash offensive game. Pretty much every team tries to pack the paint against us. That's not a new strategy, but most teams can't pull it off. The other strategy is to pull McCowan out of the paint. I do think Mizzou could have exposed how that works when you have 5 players who can shoot the 3. To me, that seems more difficult to defend for a true post player.

 

[Reypl21]

I

That puts UConn in toughest regional.

In theory, shouldn't the 4th 1-seed always have the toughest regional? That's how it's supposed to be, the worst 1-seed is paired with the best 2-seed. It's almost always been like that. Two years ago it was Baylor (1 seed) paired with MSst (2 seed). Last year it was ND paired with Oregon.

 

[triaddukefan]

I

In theory, shouldn't the 4th 1-seed always have the toughest regional? That's how it's supposed to be, the worst 1-seed is paired with the best 2-seed. It's almost always been like that. Two years ago it was Baylor (1 seed) paired with MSst (2 seed). Last year it was ND paired with Oregon.

Didnt happen in 2011

 

[Jmsdawg]

There’s a lot of ways to assess MS St vs SC. Right now, I believe SC is the better team. Time will tell if I’m correct or not.

SC is a really good team when they are shooting well, they showed that against both MSST and UConn, but when the shot does not drop they are average. MSST is a really good team even when not playing their A game, they are an elite team when they are playing their game. In my opinion, Most of the time MSST will beat SC, however playing at SC is a different matter, I think that game is a toss up and either team could win that game.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

SC is a really good team when they are shooting well, they showed that against both MSST and UConn, but when the shot does not drop they are average. MSST is a really good team even when not playing their A game, they are an elite team when they are playing their game. In my opinion, Most of the time MSST will beat SC, however playing at SC is a different matter, I think that game is a toss up and either team could win that game.

You covered your bases pretty well there.

 

[oldude]

SC is a really good team when they are shooting well, they showed that against both MSST and UConn, but when the shot does not drop they are average.

In all honesty you can say exactly the same thing about every other team in the nation. Case in point. MS St shoots 49% for the season. Against unranked Mizzou, the Bulldogs shot 39% and lost.

 

[Plebe]

In all honesty you can say exactly the same thing about every other team in the nation. Case in point. MS St shoots 49% for the season. Against unranked Mizzou, the Bulldogs shot 39% and lost.

“(Insert team name) is really good when they shoot well enough to outscore the opposing team.”

I’m just waiting to be offered that color analyst job.

 

[SimpleDawg]

SC already 0-1 in that 3 game streak before they face Mississippi State.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

Ridiculously poor effort. Sort of embarrassing honestly.

 

[SCspur]

We put the pressure back to on us to share the SEC with this loss. Really poor effort from everyone except Henderson (who’s going to be a star). Hope Cooper will be ok, she’s vital to the team in many ways.